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Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 1

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Marshall

Marshall

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usiel said:
Thanks for post that it was a good read. Would love to corner Mahoney some time and 'attempt' to get some insight on the debates(pros/cons) for some bust picks and general hindsight 20/20 stuff.
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Did not feel like adding to the discussion on the Prospects board, but Cherepanov was off the Caps list his draft year - apparently, he did not well on the bike test, and just shrugged and smiled at Makfi afterwards.

Safe to say that may something about Makfi, as well.
 
Hivemind

Hivemind

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Langway said:
Again, Percy I'd agree with but with the caveat that he got injured a lot. I personally wasn't too high on the rest. None were players I'd have considered future top fours aside from Ceci and only because he was thrown into it and could somewhat survive but not in any way you'd draw up. Your examples busted but a lot of players do. I'd agree generally that forwards earlier and defensemen/goalies later is the way to go about business but, again, I don't really get punting on certain categories of players altogether and there are always exceptions. If you're just going to evaluate based on skill and finesse alone then you're inevitably likely to miss on some core components of team building. Harrington is 26 so I think it's okay to start judging his career. It's still unfolding but he's on the way IMO and a good example of a guy I was high on as that type of player if he could continue to progress. It's less that that they don't make mistakes but that they're proficient at shutting down skilled players first and foremost. Whether they can translate that as they go up in levels is the question. It's not being one-dimensional and in survival mode because that isn't tenable but being extremely efficient and on point defensively with the ability to make simple plays when they do have the puck. Players like Carlo & Cernak have reach and frame on their side but that doesn't really make them exceptions. That's part of what helps them excel.

Going from 2013 on back a few more examples of players I've been high on are Santini, Lindholm, Edmundson, Dumoulin, McNabb and to some extent Hamonic. Santini will be an interesting follow in NSH in whether he can settle into more of a third-pair/PK role on a more competitive club and progress further. His play with NJD was pretty unremarkable if not downright bad but he was also probably rushed. Change of scenery type deals for these sorts of players aren't overly rare IMO given that it does take some of them a little longer to develop, kind of like power forwards at times. Lindholm may be the best example of a guy that was a high pick, a big riser and someone that doesn't put up a whole lot of points but is a very efficient/cerebral 5-on-5 beast most years when his team is any good. I'd bet on Seider eventually fitting into that type and I think Alexeyev pretty much ticks off all of the boxes unless injuries give pause. Size would be the one area where Fehervary doesn't quite match up but it's possible that becomes less essential and also depends on the technique/leverage of the player in negating that. Your examples did have red flags IMO and it's the difference between players that may look good against their peer group and those that have a diverse enough skill set and a higher processing of the game to maintain efficiency as challenges become ever more demanding.

The main thing about special offensive players that counteract their flaws is sometimes those flaws can be so glaring (like defending or working hard defensively) that they're still going to have a rather limited role. Some don't earn their coaches trust altogether and don't always really have the translatable impact skill to compensates enough for those weaknesses so as to gain confidence and trust their game. Yet that level of doubt doesn't seem to be factored in as much in his evaluations when referencing upside or risk when it should. It's an area where if it's awful it may keep them from being regulars altogether. Sheer upside is IMO a bit of a cop-out and one-dimensional view when evaluating, esp. when it only applies to certain player types and ignores downsides. Impact profiles in general should be more highly valued but when it comes to evaluating on a case-by-case basis a more one-dimensional application tends to lead to certain outcomes as a matter of preference when impact is really more of a diverse skill set than is being recognized. It can lead to a certain cartoonishness.
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Gonna try and keep this response shorter than the past few, so I'm going to avoid going player-by-player as much as I can. To summarize that portion, there are pro scouts and agencies that had pretty different evaluations of some of the names dropped from what you're citing (for example, prior to his draft, Hampus Lindholm was viewed as a toolsy two-way defender with good offensive instincts and questionable defensive hockey sense). A lot of these success stories either had good offensive numbers and PP roles in juniors/AHL, or were playing in the NCAA or men's Euro leagues (Edmundson is the only real exception on your list). Guys like Alexeyev are the same way. A toolsy defender who's demonstrated significant potential on both ends of the rink. And even Feverbaby did well offensively against his peer group at the WJHC, but has had to play a more conservative/limited role in the SHL.

I'm not just arguing for special offensive players, but rather that a lot of the guys who don't demonstrate puck skills at lower levels (which typically translates to significant offensive/PP utilization at those levels) end up not being able to cut it in a significant role in the NHL. Using positioning and reach to break up plays has notable impacts on the NHL game, but it's also the type of play that a coach expects every D to be able to make (although they may permit more failures to make this play from a player that brings other attributes to the team). When they fail to make this play, it's the type of thing that gets brought up in video reviews. That's why I view not making those plays as a mistake, and the players who make them more consistently as lower-mistake players. This is further compounded if the player is also a liability with the puck on their stick, and the guys who can execute with the puck on their stick at NHL speed are often capable of doing a lot more with the puck against lesser competition. There are, of course, exceptions. There always are, and Pronman's analysis often does take this rule to the point of cartoonishness. But as a rule of thumb, I think it's fine.
 
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Hivemind

Hivemind

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Sam Spade said:
I understand it though. I went to a few of those and they were bloodbaths.
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Don't think I ever saw anything too crazy at any of the ones I remember. Maybe one or two scraps, but nothing out of the ordinary. It was the fact I could actually go to them that was a plus. Kettler or the Flyers practice rink in Vorhees were both fun, but the last couple years the Flyers even hosted them at Wells Fargo with free tickets. I don't think anyone is making the trek down to Nashville aside of Predators fans, and the lack of rotating host sites is a bummer.
 
Sam Spade

Sam Spade

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Hivemind said:
Don't think I ever saw anything too crazy at any of the ones I remember. Maybe one or two scraps, but nothing out of the ordinary. It was the fact I could actually go to them that was a plus. Kettler or the Flyers practice rink in Vorhees were both fun, but the last couple years the Flyers even hosted them at Wells Fargo with free tickets. I don't think anyone is making the trek down to Nashville aside of Predators fans, and the lack of rotating host sites is a bummer.
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I was in the stands for this one:



I wasn't for these:

 
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tenken00

tenken00

Oh it's going down in Chinatown
Jan 29, 2010
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Have they released the Caps prospect tournament roster yet? It's only a week away!
 
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Langway

Langway

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Interesting that Walfridsson will be there. Wasn't anticipating that given the lack of NHL contract and also since he's moving to a new team in Sweden (Sodertalje).
 
Langway

Langway

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Future HHoFer Fehervary that is. He's played against men so not too shocking...but I do think the clock is ticking for Djoos. No special teams value raises the stakes for him to be a much more consistently impactful even-strength player or else what's the point?
 
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Marshall

Marshall

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Mar 13, 2002
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Crystal Koons' cold, dead eyes.
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39rj17.jpg
 
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CapitalsCupReality

CapitalsCupReality

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Langway said:
Future HHoFer Fehervary that is. He's played against men so not too shocking...but I do think the clock is ticking for Djoos. No special teams value raises the stakes for him to be a much more consistently impactful even-strength player or else what's the point?
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Djoos is coming up against his physical limitations IMO. It was bound to happen. Size, not that great, skating, not that great. Skill, pretty decent.
 
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GoCaps2004

GoCaps2004

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"I saw him play quite a bit [in 2018-19] with his team at HV71 [Jonkoping] and he played 18-21 minutes a game. He played on the PK, played late in the game, played a regular shift. I think he is head and shoulders above anybody right now, even Alexeyev. Someone has got to be first, and for me he is first. He is a powerful skater, he is really strong, competes like crazy, a workaholic away from the rink, great kid, great attitude, understands the game. I mean, I thought he could have played for us last year, to be honest with you. At the end of the year, I thought for sure he could play [in Washington], no question. I'd be shocked if he is not playing games for us this year. I think he is our best prospect right now. Everyone knows he is good, but he is going to surprise people when the exhibition games start."

this quote is pretty crazy, wow.
 
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Raikkonen

Raikkonen

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Aug 19, 2009
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Sorry for beating the dead horse, but Djoos is too good to have not minimum contract here and sitting in the press box. He's useful for another team.

Should be gone before October.

I thought it would be done at draft honestly, but I was wrong.

Ps: hes young sc winner still being cheap offensive defender. Should have had some value in the league
 
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