zappa4ever
Music is the Best!
LOL read any GDT and you'd think we're a lottery team that's already eliminated and Carlson, Wilson and Leipsic being the only good players
Caps quarter-season report cards
- Thread starter francaisvolantsparis
- Start date
SpinningEdge
Registered User
If you think Panik deserved a higher grade over Kuzy bc of Corsi when Kuzy is a point per game and Panik has literally 0 points you’re crazy.
Also, eye tests show Siegs hasn’t been good. He has been sole guy responsible for so many screw ups. Also, if course his corsi is going to be high when you’re playing with John Carlson. Just like Jeff Schultz has highest plus minus in league one year. Doesn’t mean they’ve been good.
I trust eye tests over 90% fancy stats. Just like why Caps are #1 in league standings wise but middle of pack most fancy stats, etc.
txpd
Registered User
Lets be fair to Siegenthaler. He is a rookie. Rookies struggle. Particularly defensemen. The Caps pk is greatly improved and he is a leading player there. I am not paying attention to the corsi but Siegenthaler hasn't played with Carlson is more than half the games they have played this season. So, if Siegenthaler's number's are solid, its not because Carlson is carrying him. Facts are that Carlson got off to that big offensive start while Siegenthaler had his back.
Portable Mink
Registered User
Ovechkin - A
Kuznetsov - A
Backstrom - B
Wilson - A
Oshie - B+
Vrana - A+
Eller - B+
Hagelin - C
Panik - D
Leipsic - A
Dowd - B
Hathaway - B+
Stephenson - C+
Boyd - B+
Carlson - A+
Kempny - B+
Orlov - B+
Gudas - B
Siegenthaler - B
Jensen - C+
Holtby - B
Samsonov - B
Kuznetsov - A
Backstrom - B
Wilson - A
Oshie - B+
Vrana - A+
Eller - B+
Hagelin - C
Panik - D
Leipsic - A
Dowd - B
Hathaway - B+
Stephenson - C+
Boyd - B+
Carlson - A+
Kempny - B+
Orlov - B+
Gudas - B
Siegenthaler - B
Jensen - C+
Holtby - B
Samsonov - B
peterthegreat12
Hopeless Caps fan ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He wasn’t brought here to score and has been lights out on the PK. He has been fantastic IMO.
txpd
Registered User
Well, he was brought here to punch up the bottom 6. Yes, he was brought in for the Pk and for his physical game. If we are grading on PK then Siegenthaler has earned an A
peterthegreat12
Hopeless Caps fan ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
At the end of the day it’s up to you how you want to grade a player. My thought was though it’s tough to grade Hathaway based upon his offense.
JayBeagleFanAccount
Registered User
It's not only corsi rates than Panik has been better in than Kuzy, hes better in xG% and ff% along with cf%. Kuzy has the 24th worst xGF% among forwards who have played 250 minutes this season. Yeah he has a lot of points because he is a high danger event player. His defense is atrocious and is making the Caps worse on the ice vs when he is off the ice. Points are an extremely arbitrary way of evaluating player talent because they ignore teammates, Jakub Vrana is absolutely driving the line when he is playing with Kuzy, hell even Tom Wilson has been making Kuzy better this season.
I'm not sure what kid of eye test evaluation you are using but Siegenthaler has played more minutes with Gudas and Jensen than with Carlson. I already stated before but Siegenthaler has been with xGA/60 and CA/60 but he also has a 54.24 xGF% and a 55.34 SC% (best on the caps defensive core) despite not having much offensive production, therefore showing he is locking things down defensively. I'm not sure what Jeff Schultz has to do with anything, +/- is a terrible stat and that was 10 seasons ago.
Yeah the Caps are winning because theyve had great play from their depth players, vrana and wilson along with carlson, orlov and siegenthaler being strong on the back end.
SpinningEdge
Registered User
You cannot possibly think Panik has been better than Kuzy up until this game. That’s just ridiculous.
JayBeagleFanAccount
Registered User
How is it ridiculous? I just broke down how Panik has been better. Points are not the end all be all in player evaluation.
SpinningEdge
Registered User
Okay what about +/-? Kuzy +9, Kempny +8.... that’s usually a sign of decent defense.
simply put - a guy who is offensive minded has 1 point in 12 games and the other is over a point per game. You can try to use shots for/against/whatever - but in no way has Panik been better. Kuzy is a big part why caps have a top power play and since Kempny and Kuzy came back the caps have been sooooo much better.
You have to be the only one on this board who think Panik has been better than Kuznetsov this year. There have been times Kuzy has been best player on ice - and Panik never has been that ever here.
If Kuzys defense is so bad - but he’s still +9, that just shows how good he is in the other zone. Shows he’s ELITE at converting chances when he can offensively. Also, if Panik has such good “fancy stats”, but has one point on the whole year - that’s even worse for him. Shows he can’t get it done when he needs to convert.
shots for/possession/etc are so dumb bc elite offensive players can score quickly and effectively. Bottom 6 guys are supposed to grind it out/get more shots to net/etc. Comparinf bottom to top lines with “fancy stats” is stupid.
just like the greatest coach who is currently coaching pro sports (bellicheck)... “fancy stats mean less than nothing” when judging players.
If fancy stats were so important - Nats Schmidt would be the Caps #1 defenseman here. Instead, they let him go.... and it was a smart decision.
JayBeagleFanAccount
Registered User
+/- is a horrible stat that literally means nothing and is extremely arbitrary. Kuzy has an oish of 14.08% (unsustainable, high) and Panik has an oish% of 5.97 (unsustainable, low). Saying possession and shot share for elite players is dumb makes absolutely no sense because possession and xG rates is what makes players elite. We let Nate Schmidt go because Trotz had an obsession with keeping Brooks Orpik (who sucked) in the lineup and now Schmidt is a top pairing defender for Vegas. Instead of just bashing analytics or "fancy stats" you should try to learn about them and make yourself a more educated fan rather than just having extremely biased opinions based on arbitrary ways of evaluating players.
dyldude
Registered User
- Nov 19, 2019
- 181
- 269
but who has more points?
SpinningEdge
Registered User
We won the cup without fancy stats.
You’re literally saying Panik is a better player than Kuzy so far this year - and anyone who has watched Caps this year knows that’s not true.
If Panik was so good Reirdon wouldn’t be playing him under 12 mins a game.
can Panik do well? Yes. I think he will be fine.... but no one in their right mind can say Panik has been a better player than Kuzy this year. You can’t just judge a player on points alone. - but 1 point in 12 games for a offensive player is awful. That’s the reality. It’s a results league. Not a “oh you’re teammates missed shots when you were on the ice league”.
fancy stats caps aren’t that high this year too. Still first in the league.
Also, we won the Cup with Brooks Orpik and Brooks Orpik had a game winning Stanley Cup goal while Nate Schmidt couldn’t stop the Caps as being a top line D guy, so that was a great move.
You sound like the idiots over at RMNB and how Corsi/fancy stats are so important. They are for some things, but def not the end all be all.
know most important stat for an offensive player? Points and if they’re producing and not having a bad plus minus. Simple as that. If you’re playing offense and producing points more than you’re giving up then fantastic. If you aren’t, then you aren’t productive to the team. That’s not considered a “fancy stat”, but is way more important of a stat.
Give me Kuzy as over a point per game and a +35 pace all day over a guy who is a minus player and has one point in a dozen games from the same team.
Does anyone else on this board actually believe Kuzy has been WORSE of a player this year than Panik?? Anyone else?
fancy stats are so stupid. Every year teams average about 3-5 shots difference per game for the majority of the whole league... yet the top players are constantly up there points wise. If everything “evened out” based on “shot attempts”, etc - then 80% of the league would be close in points.
For example, Ovechkin. Fancy stats suggest he’s worse than Panik too.... and that’s just the dumbest stat ever.
Last edited:
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
Actually, McDavid is at 47.4 in CF%. Now I know, Panik is better than him.
SpinningEdge
Registered User
Lol. Exactly. Such a dumb stat.
@JayBeagleFanAccount - are you saying McDavid has been worse this year than Panik too? Are you standing by your CF% that bc Paniks is higher he’s been better than McDavid this year?
JayBeagleFanAccount
Registered User
My evaluation wasnt only on cf%. You have to take into account all their stats and obviously some context. Kuzy's analytics paint him as a below replacement player which I don't consider to be the truth. No I dont think Panik is better than McDavid because of a 20 game sample size looking only at their corsi rates. Looking at points and +/- is a terrible way to evaluate players, yeah points matter a bit but there are a lot of better ways to evaluate players. You have to look at the full body of work: points, corsi, xG, fenwick, heat maps, GAR, WAR, ect. the list goes on and on. Hockey is a very nuanced game that requires a lot more than just looking at point and +/-. +/- is dismissed even by most surface level hockey fans. Brooks Orpik had like 1 goal in 3 seasons or something so thats a terrible example, we also had to pay with Grubauer to move his contract while Nate Schmidt grew into a top pair defenseman in Vegas. Do I think Kuzy is worse than Panik, idk maybe, Kuzy has been really bad this year if you can look outside of his point totals, yeah Panik might only have 1 goal but the caps have a -18% defensive threat when hes on the ice vs the +8% defensive threat when kuzy is on the ice. Caps have lots of players with good analytics this season, vrana, wilson, carlson, dowd, leipsic, carlson, siegenthaler, and they have a good coach who runs a good system which is why they are winning.
Calicaps
NFA
Oh. My. God. Fancy stats suck. Kuzy >>>>>>> Panik. That is all.
Last edited:
But if you think about it McDavid (or Draisaitl 47.7) comes in the zone takes a shot and then it is either a goal, a stoppage, or a change of possession. There isn't much established zone time for his line at all.
I am actually surprised his CF is that high.
sycamore
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2010
- 5,058
- 1,067
Also Oshie. TJ's had a pretty good season to date, 3rd in goals behind Ovie and Vrana.
