Speculation: Caps Hockey General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2017-18 Regular Season Edition

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CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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You are right, the best defense is a good offense, the Penguins proved that last season. However the problem with the Caps right now is they really don't have all that amazing of an offense. Currently there are 4 players who are controlling the scoring on this team. Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie. That is 4 players accounting for 60% of the teams total points. We have seen what happens to this team when they are top heavy. The Rangers throw out McDonagh and Stall to lock down Ovi and Nicky (now Kuzy), and it works. Then they take their chances playing 3 lines vs. 3 lines and the Caps don't have the goal scorers to beat the King. Or they face Pittsburgh. The first two lines even out and the Penguins find a way to crash the net and score more goals than the Caps bottom 6. Wash rinse repeat. This year I don't think the scoring is going to even out and it'll be a problem.

Off all the players in our bottom 6 this season look at their career highs. Minus Walker of course

Career High Goals
Beagle-13
Chiasson-13
Connolly-15
Eller-16
Graovac-7
Smith-Pelley-8
Wilson-7

Long way from a scoring top 9 there. Out of the list only Connolly strikes me as a player who can top his total.

I'll end with my beating of the drum, go get a scoring forward for the third line!!!! Galchenyuk, Duchene, SOMEBODY!!!! This NHL needs 3 lines that can get 50+ goals to win a cup. Especially when injuries come.


I like your logic until the “to win a Cup” part. I’m dealing from the position where this is more than unlikely at this point. We’re back to just qualifying and hoping to get hot like the majority of the NHL.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,377
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I already said I don't expect him to sign on the cheap. So the choice is to either ride it out and lose him for nothing this offseason, or deal him and recoup some very good assets. Maybe he turns his career around but at this point it is looking like his 2014-15 season was the exception and not the norm so I'm not really interested in signing him to a big UFA deal.

The thing that makes Carlson a unique trade asset is that there is quite a gulf between his perceived value and his actual value IMO. He almost surely has a very high reputation around the league because he's a RHD (perhaps the most coveted position in the league behind 1C) who QBs the best PP in the league and on top of that he is a Team USA WJC hero and Olympian. And on top of that he has a very manageable cap-hit that shouldn't be an issue for most teams at the TDL.

However, digging a little deeper I think his actual value is quite overstated. As good as the PP is he was effectively replaced by Shattenkirk last season because he couldn't get the job done at the point. He doesn't drive possession at even strength (negative relative possession player basically his entire career) and he often makes braindead, lazy plays. His defensive numbers are suspect even if he does have offensive talent.

So the question I'd ask is that if he's not going to be a long-term solution does he move the needle enough this postseason to reject a first rounder + prospect (and probably more) that he almost surely could fetch at the TDL? It's an open question right now, and again this is why I want to see Bowey in the lineup ASAP. The Blues jettisoned Shattenkirk last season because they had Pietrangelo and Parayko and figured losing Shattenkirk wasn't enough to reject the first rounder + Sanford. Not saying the Capitals have that type of depth at RHD but if Bowey can come close to replacing Carlson's level of play (a big question of course) then I think you have to consider pulling the trigger on a trade.

Sure Carlson has his warts. That’s what makes him a 1b/2a D. Should be heavily coveted by anyone who doesn’t already have one of his type or better.

I’m not going to debate that Carlson has issues and sometimes I want to smack that dumb, mouth hanging open look off his mug, but I can’t see this franchise, in a playoff spot selling him off for assets. As you stated, the drop off in his absence is immense for this roster. Bowey can’t even make the team. Expecting him to be able to capably fill Carlson’s skates by April seems foolhardy as a playoff strategy. I think they extend him, or try to well into the summer like Oshie.

I’d definitely consider trading him, but if this is a playoff team, they probably won’t as a deadline sell off.
 

Sam Spade

Registered User
May 4, 2009
27,484
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I like your logic until the “to win a Cup” part. I’m dealing from the position where this is more than unlikely at this point. We’re back to just qualifying and hoping to get hot like the majority of the NHL.

Of course that's were we are at.

There are no "favorites", and I never bought into that media hype the last two seasons. "Just get in and see what happens" is what I say every year.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,377
19,076
I think the answers continue to be in leveraging their strengths and aggressively attempting to manufacture solutions via stronger development. They've tried this same basic approach with a superior roster and it has failed. They're not likely to get the sort of development they need just by fixating on outcomes for five months and reassessing the rest only as that dictates. They need to take a step back...only Trotz seems largely unable to do so whether it's due to his own limited skill set as a coach, him coaching for his job or his belief that they must get off to a good start by any means necessary (or some combination of all three). There remains plenty within their control that they seem to gloss over and it's easily the most frustrating aspect of all. Great franchises have that self-awareness at every level and are unsparing.

It always come back to the process...the process of evaluating and improving. It requires a hunger to improve and can't coexist in a complacent environment. Their skill development stands out as relatively weak--even if their system itself is thin in raw ability--and that's only going to stick out more if their supposed developmental strength in team defense isn't on point due to stubborn beliefs that don't actually matter. The easiest way for them to remain a tough out is to develop Djoos and Bowey and still basically do what they do otherwise. That alone may be enough but it's overcoming those stubborn beliefs that Trotz has re: youth that could sink him. If that happens then, as good of a coach as he may be in some areas, it would be a blessing in disguise because the league that he may believe in isn't what the league is today or where it's headed.

If I’m summarizing correctly you’re suggesting a coach fighting for his next contract, is supposed to start a roster full of youngsters, results be damned early on in the season? This team lost a lot of talent. They experienced another huge disappointment. If I’m coaching, contract extension or not, I want these guys shaken from their doldrums playing well early on. I’m not force infusing youth just because that could payoff down the road. I’m trying to get them off to a strong start, not a bad one that could gain momentum and risk playoff qualification. Bowey would likely be here if not for cap hell.

Lemme ask you this, let’s assume Leonsis, GMBM, Trotz all sat down and Leonsis laid out organizational goals at the highest level. Where do you think “qualify for playoffs” ranked on that list in terms of just TEAM on ice goals?

If it ranked 2nd to the omnipresent “Stanley Cup” (which is what I would expect), would you disagree? And even if you disagree, and the owner presents this to his hockey guys, you know they have their marching orders.

I see you type up a lot of long and sometimes eloquent responses about organizational strategy and direction without a lot of details.

What exactly are the “plenty of things they gloss over” that they could do differently that wins them a Cup, or I’d even takes gets them closer to a Cup?

What are the things you’re referring to with “great franchises have this level of self-awareness”? Examples?

Does firing a coach and catching fire signify enhanced self-awareness or a desperate move made by a team with no other option?

Does getting lucky in the draft at the right time, MULTIPLE times indicate enhanced self-Awareness or greatness?
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,263
8,890
If I’m summarizing correctly you’re suggesting a coach fighting for his next contract, is supposed to start a roster full of youngsters, results be damned early on in the season?
As things stand now? Abso-f***ing-lutely. Chorney and Ness have made that a particularly easy decision. They offer nothing but survival minutes at best. They lost a lot of talent, yes, but they need actual talent replacing them and not some bullshit "stability". Chorney and Ness offer nothing at all in the way of talent. Chiasson isn't too dissimilar. They provide experience but the overall talent level is fringe.

They could make decisions today to bring Bowey up so they're only as handcuffed as they want to be. Waive Ness and Graovac or Chiasson and there's plenty of room not just to have Bowey up and work with him up but also open up cap space so they could add at some point if need be. Instead, they appear to prefer to not risk losing one of those very crucial depth forwards (or Ness) and to give one or both of Chorney and Ness extended opportunities to prove they're NHL regulars (albeit with zero upside). Again, their easiest route to the playoffs and quality play is to turn it over to Djoos and Bowey and run with realizing their upsides. All Chorney and Ness give them at best is being territorially dominated for 8-12 minutes a night. There are limits to being patient with rookies but they should be on that side of the fence instead of the tense survival mode plug direction. Trotz must be comfortable taking that plunge and also valuing skill and hockey sense over nebulous concepts like 'stability' and 'consistency.'

They gloss over decision-making in the offensive zone and not going through the motions an awful lot in adherence to positional play. They've glossed over net drive for years. They gloss over faster neutral zone play. They've glossed over not being morons and lazily passing the puck up the boards when pressured. They've glossed over the importance of crisp outlets and maintaining focus/poise in those situations instead. They've glossed over how not to bleed breakaways against Pittsburgh or how they rarely get any of their own. We sometimes tend to chalk up excuses like a lack of speed when there are plenty of teams that play more of a stop and start game or just a more cohesive smart team game that minimizes point A to point B speed. And on and on. There's plenty they don't do particularly well that gets masked because of special teams, depth, their brand of structure and goaltending. But maybe no longer. Lack of defensive depth makes those other areas that haven't been improved more glaring. They're not last year's team but if they want to be and improve in no other area then, yes, it's most likely Djoos and Bowey that gets them there. We certainly won't know unless it's given the chance.

Great franchises and leaders are unsparing in understanding their strengths and weaknesses and doggedly seeking to improve. Crosby is the easy individual example and there's a mental toughness and resolve that tend to separate that level of competitor. Some of that's maybe myth-making but it's so often true of the greats. They want it and don't stop preparing and learning until they achieve it. Even when they do they don't stop learning and tweaking their game because they understand that it's a constant challenge in proving themselves and what they're capable of. They're true students of their discipline. It's something this team needs to stop hiding from and get a thicker skin for. But, like I said, there are also blind spots from an approach standpoint that don't help.
 

OV Rocks

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
1,068
371
Beach with Beer
None of the models have worked. They are the Caps. You think if they tried your model and turned out to be good that it would make any difference?


Well I think by saying if it turned out "good" that would mean that the model led to the Caps getting past the second round and if lucky win the cup.

So yes I do think if they tried it out and it worked out "good" I would be pleased
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,377
19,076
As things stand now? Abso-****ing-lutely. Chorney and Ness have made that a particularly easy decision. They offer nothing but survival minutes at best. They lost a lot of talent, yes, but they need actual talent replacing them and not some bull**** "stability". Chorney and Ness offer nothing at all in the way of talent. Chiasson isn't too dissimilar. They provide experience but the overall talent level is fringe.

They could make decisions today to bring Bowey up so they're only as handcuffed as they want to be. Waive Ness and Graovac or Chiasson and there's plenty of room not just to have Bowey up and work with him up but also open up cap space so they could add at some point if need be. Instead, they appear to prefer to not risk losing one of those very crucial depth forwards (or Ness) and to give one or both of Chorney and Ness extended opportunities to prove they're NHL regulars (albeit with zero upside). Again, their easiest route to the playoffs and quality play is to turn it over to Djoos and Bowey and run with realizing their upsides. All Chorney and Ness give them at best is being territorially dominated for 8-12 minutes a night. There are limits to being patient with rookies but they should be on that side of the fence instead of the tense survival mode plug direction. Trotz must be comfortable taking that plunge and also valuing skill and hockey sense over nebulous concepts like 'stability' and 'consistency.'

They gloss over decision-making in the offensive zone and not going through the motions an awful lot in adherence to positional play. They've glossed over net drive for years. They gloss over faster neutral zone play. They've glossed over not being morons and lazily passing the puck up the boards when pressured. They've glossed over the importance of crisp outlets and maintaining focus/poise in those situations instead. They've glossed over how not to bleed breakaways against Pittsburgh or how they rarely get any of their own. We sometimes tend to chalk up excuses like a lack of speed when there are plenty of teams that play more of a stop and start game or just a more cohesive smart team game that minimizes point A to point B speed. And on and on. There's plenty they don't do particularly well that gets masked because of special teams, depth, their brand of structure and goaltending. But maybe no longer. Lack of defensive depth makes those other areas that haven't been improved more glaring. They're not last year's team but if they want to be and improve in no other area then, yes, it's most likely Djoos and Bowey that gets them there. We certainly won't know unless it's given the chance.

Great franchises and leaders are unsparing in understanding their strengths and weaknesses and doggedly seeking to improve. Crosby is the easy individual example and there's a mental toughness and resolve that tend to separate that level of competitor. Some of that's maybe myth-making but it's so often true of the greats. They want it and don't stop preparing and learning until they achieve it. Even when they do they don't stop learning and tweaking their game because they understand that it's a constant challenge in proving themselves and what they're capable of. They're true students of their discipline. It's something this team needs to stop hiding from and get a thicker skin for. But, like I said, there are also blind spots from an approach standpoint that don't help.


I’ll respond to your 4 paragraphs.

1. Look around the league, many if not the majority of 3rd pairs are playing “survive minutes”. We’ll agree to disagree on your strategy of forcing some larger mass youth movement at the risk costing them a comfortable playoff spot, or starting the season badly. Given Trotz’s likely organizational marching orders, you’re probably suggesting counteractive strategies. Ive believed for a while/am hopeful, sometime before the end of the season, we’ll see Bowey and Djoos capably contributing at the NHL-level. I guess I don’t get the freak out 4 games in.

2. Again you want to force Bowey by waiving guys they probably need over 82 games. Bowey didn’t dominate in the preseason forcing their hands. What else do you want? You want Bowey in the lineup.....it’s coming, chillax.

3. Unless you’re IN practices and video rooms, you’re exaggerating and speculating this whole glossing over thing based on your amateur review of live games. Not executing isn’t the same as glossing over to me. It’s failing to execute. Also, no secret that the core of this team has a propensity to not show for big games or otherwise find ways to lose. Many coaches have tried to fix it. Maybe it’s just not in the cards, and until 8,19,74, 70 are gone, it may not change.

4. Is this your Ovechkin paragraph? I think it’s completely logical to question many things with the core of this team. Ovy and Backstrom aren’t Crosby that’s for sure. I’ll leave that one there.
 

zappa4ever

Music is the Best!
Feb 10, 2010
1,491
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MD/VA/WV intersection
...
Off all the players in our bottom 6 this season look at their career highs. Minus Walker of course

Career High Goals
Beagle-13
Chiasson-13
Connolly-15
Eller-16
Graovac-7
Smith-Pelley-8
Wilson-7

Long way from a scoring top 9 there. Out of the list only Connolly strikes me as a player who can top his total.

I'll end with my beating of the drum, go get a scoring forward for the third line!!!! Galchenyuk, Duchene, SOMEBODY!!!! This NHL needs 3 lines that can get 50+ goals to win a cup. Especially when injuries come.
I think ppl way overestimate how much 3rd lines (or any point in the depth chart) are scoring

Generalizing that the top scorers correspond to the top lines... '16-'17 reg. season stats for fwds:
Top 90 Forwards (1st line):
1st to 30th = 44 to 28g
31 to 60th = 28g to 23g
61 to 90th = 23 to 20g
Top 91-180 Forwards (2nd line):
91 to 120th = 20g to 18g
121 to 150th = 18g to 16g
151 to 180th = 16g to 14g
Top 181-270 Forwards (3rd line):
181 to 210 = 14g to 12g
211 to 240 = 12g to 10g
241 to 270 = 10g to 8g

I don't think there's a team that had 6 forwards w/20g, very few had 5
 

Alexander the Gr8

Registered User
May 2, 2013
31,595
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Toronto
I’ll respond to your 4 paragraphs.

1. Look around the league, many if not the majority of 3rd pairs are playing “survive minutes”. We’ll agree to disagree on your strategy of forcing some larger mass youth movement at the risk costing them a comfortable playoff spot, or starting the season badly. Given Trotz’s likely organizational marching orders, you’re probably suggesting counteractive strategies. Ive believed for a while/am hopeful, sometime before the end of the season, we’ll see Bowey and Djoos capably contributing at the NHL-level. I guess I don’t get the freak out 4 games in.

2. Again you want to force Bowey by waiving guys they probably need over 82 games. Bowey didn’t dominate in the preseason forcing their hands. What else do you want? You want Bowey in the lineup.....it’s coming, chillax.

3. Unless you’re IN practices and video rooms, you’re exaggerating and speculating this whole glossing over thing based on your amateur review of live games. Not executing isn’t the same as glossing over to me. It’s failing to execute. Also, no secret that the core of this team has a propensity to not show for big games or otherwise find ways to lose. Many coaches have tried to fix it. Maybe it’s just not in the cards, and until 8,19,74, 70 are gone, it may not change.

4. Is this your Ovechkin paragraph? I think it’s completely logical to question many things with the core of this team. Ovy and Backstrom aren’t Crosby that’s for sure. I’ll leave that one there.

On paragraphs 1 and 2, he has a point. If we want Djoos and Bowey to be ready for the playoffs, it's better to give them lots of minutes early in the NHL. The games currently played don't mean much yet, not a lot of pressure on the rookies. Rookies around the league are doing very well. There's like 15 different rookies who scored their first NHL goal this week.

We need to get Bowey ready too. Chorney and Ness be damned, they'll clear the waivers. If Mark Streit cleared with all his experience and Cup pedigree, I'm sure Chorney and Ness will clear as well. Even if they don't clear, we can pick up Ds of their caliber easily. Some teams have logjams on defense and will be more than happy to lend us their 7th D.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,377
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Ready for playoffs? There is plenty of recent examples of young players coming in much later and contributing to a Cup or even just to playoff success. Sure more time could be better. It could also be worse for young guys you see hit the wall late in their first NHL season. Chorney and Ness aren’t even in the discussion. Isn’t this believed to be a money for bodies decision anyway. I seriously doubt Trotz is carrying a torch for 6/7D over his own job.
 
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Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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Toronto
Ready for playoffs? There is plenty of recent examples of young players coming in much later and contributing to a Cup or even just to playoff success. Sure more time could be better. It could also be worse for young guys you see hit the wall late in their first NHL season. Chorney and Ness aren’t even in the discussion. Isn’t this believed to be a money for bodies decision anyway. I seriously doubt Trotz is carrying a torch for 6/7D over his own job.

And there are examples of the opposite. In the long run, a player of Djoos or Bowey's age can only benefit from getting ice time in the NHL.

Our young D should play. It's not just about them vs Chorney and Ness, it's also about not wearing down our top 4 early. With Chorney and Ness in the lineup, we're going to have to rely heavily on Orlov and Niskanen.

Trotz and GMBM have to sort this out ASAP.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,263
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1. Look around the league, many if not the majority of 3rd pairs are playing “survive minutes”.
No, they're not. They're neither playing so little nor getting their shit kicked in on the regular. There isn't a single D to play four full games and average less time than Ness at 10:42. Chorney's 13:32 is also relatively low for a third pair. There's no point playing someone that little when other options are available and there's no long game being played like with younger players. I get giving guys a chance but they need to show something beyond being moderately composed when they're defending in their end all night.

As has been mentioned, it's not just the third pair's performance but how their usage in turn impacts the top two pairs getting overused. It reduces their effectiveness and has helped turned them into a weaker possession team. See here. The single biggest change from a year ago is they've gone from a very strong possession third pair that could be trusted and rolled to one of the very worst third pairs when it's Ness/Chorney. It's not sustainable nor any sort of stable recipe for them to comfortably get back into the playoffs. Carlson is currently averaging what would be a career-high ATOI, Niskanen his second-highest, Orlov almost five minutes more than any season and Orpik hasn't averaged as much in five seasons. It's early, they've had a couple OT games and a lot of penalties but it's a dynamic they can't be comfortable sticking with. It's a situation where there's potential help in the system to spread minutes to a greater extent, at least in time, but it requires Trotz to embrace youth and some of the youthful mistakes they'll make. But he must prefer their skill level and hockey sense compared to a couple journeymen. Beyond whatever motivational issues they may have, this is the drag that threatens to bog down their season.

They don't need Ness or Chiasson over 82 games and, hell, if they're waived it's not a lock anyone claims them anyway. If they are, who cares? They're plugs.

They've glossed over those areas because they haven't improved them and have shown there are different standards for different areas and players. There aren't enough layers in their game and it seems almost intentional that they've simplified the game down to where sheer work ethic and structure is meant to carry the day over anything else. The details beyond that just largely seem left to chance. They can get away with much of it in the regular season but less so now that they're a weaker team. Trotz needs to coach to what he's got and part of that is not just stuffing the third pair under the rug, overloading the top two D pairs and acting as though it's just status quo otherwise. I don't think that dog hunts this year. He needs solutions and the patience to develop them on the fly or else they may have a hard time keeping up.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,009
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The past couple years, the even-strength style of the team could more or less be summed up as "no weaknesses." They didn't really have a truly defined play style at even-strength beyond positional responsibility and the fact they were deep enough to not have any real weaknesses that could be exposed. That's simply not true this season. The third line is currently lacking a scoring threat. The bottom line has regressed from one of the best in the league to being filled by replacement and sub-replacement level talent. The bottom pairing is among the very worst in the league. They can't simply rely on talent advantages and Trotzian no-weakness hockey.

They need to be pursuing an approach that will allow them to develop real strengths and play to them. That includes finding ways to get useful play from their third pairing. You can bury a 4th line of forwards much easier than you can bury your 3rd defensive pairing, and 4th liners can still be useful as specialist role players on the PK or faceoff circle. They need to find a way to get more useful minutes from their third pairing, with an eye either (or both) of in-season development or at least getting specialist minutes. With Carlson a UFA-to-be and Niskanen not exactly an elite powerplay QB, it makes sense to get Bowey more exposure on NHL ice and start grooming him towards assuming a powerplay role. It makes sense to get Djoos more ice time to see if he can handle the NHL size and speed on a consistent basis.
 

Raikkonen

Dumb guy
Aug 19, 2009
10,715
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Russia
Forcing top-4 to play every other shift will get someone injured in the end. Then there will be a free fall. Then Trotz will be fired. Profit!

EDIT: Didn't watch the game, didn't know Niskanen's already hurt.
 
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Brian23

Registered User
Dec 3, 2011
5,655
2,462


I wonder if they’ll top 4 Chorney or throw Bowey to the wolves.

I hope they throw him in and see if he can swim. It’d be huge.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,263
8,890
I would think this:

Orlov - Carlson
Orpik - Bowey
Djoos - Chorney/Ness

They wanted to get Bowey in with Orpik so here's their chance. Chorney is likely the better fit with Djoos anyway.



Niskanen to LTIR would give them short-term flexibility to add a bit of salary but not once he returns. I've thought Merrill could make some sense, particularly if Vegas kept some salary. Merrill shouldn't cost much of anything. McNabb would be a lot better but would also cost considerably more.
 
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ovikovy817

Registered User
May 23, 2015
6,174
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Belgium
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO **** my life. Where's the NHL/dops to punish the guy who slashed Nisky???

Maybe we can get back Schmidt now?
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,624
14,441
Sucks to lose Niskanen but it shouldn’t torpedo their season and now we get to see what the young guys can do. Could be a blessing in disguise.

Also way better for this injury to happen in October than April.
 
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