Speculation: Caps Hockey General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2017-18 Regular Season Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

The fact the Captain is averaging 2 goals a game hides a lot of flaws in the team. I also think you're severely under-rating what Schmidt was able to do. I have no doubt you can get a bottom pairing defender for peanuts essentially, but Schmidt was much better than any other bottom 6 guy around the league at breaking the puck out and moving with purpose. Those are skills that are hard to replace.

Goalscoring can make up for D. Goalscoring can come from anywhere. Holtby is also not playing his best. It evens out IMO. Schmidt is seriously overrated here. Time will prove that out IMO. Caps could pick up a capable substitute fairly quickly before the deadline and not pay deadline pricing. They could also hope Djoos/Bowey step up.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Cup or Bust was second round exits. The Caps have a Vezina winner/Vezina finalist goalie in his prime. They have a top 5 scorer in the league last season at center. They have to top goal scorer of his era. They have an emerging star at 2c. Their defense is decent. No reason this team cant get hot and win 2 playoff rounds. They are definitely not in blow it up and break it down position. Is that what you want to see?

Obviously not, but we've been waiting 10 years for this team to get hot and win 2 playoff rounds. Other younger, hungrier teams are passing us in the power rankings. We're a declining team and each playoff upset is making us lose fans and enjoyment.

 

[RandyHolt]

This team is absolutely in win now mode.

1000? I am hoping you forgot a zero. Sigh.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Oshie posted this on Twitter and it's amazing

 

[ovikovy817]

A goal and a big hit by Tom for his first game, would be sweet

 

[DCRedhawk21]

Is a line of Connolly - Eller - Wilson really that bad? I mean it's not great as far as third lines go, but I don't think it's that terrible. Maybe there's some metric that would tell me I'm wrong. I wonder if Burt moves down to 3 if he continues to underwhelm. They need more from him and I would guess they try (again) to get Wilson some time in the top 6 throughout the season.

I wonder if at some point we see:

Ovi - Kuz - Vrana
Connolly - Backstrom - Oshie
Bura - Eller - Wilson

or

Ovi - Kuz - Oshie
Bura - Backstrom - Wilson
Connolly - Eller - Vrana

 

[MW6]

I don’t like Burakovsky on the left side, he’s much better as a RW. Btw, have you seen this? It’s a SERIOUS concern.

Burakovsky's rank among forwards in % of shot attempts that are a shot on goal:
2016-17: 343rd out of 352
2017-18: 246th out of 256

 

[Dr John Carlson]

I wouldn't mind this being tried...

Vrana - Backstrom - Oshie
Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Connolly - Eller - Burakovsky

 

[Coldplay619]

I wouldn't mind this being tried...

Vrana - Backstrom - Oshie
Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Connolly - Eller - Burakovsky

I like this.

Bura, Eller and Connolly have great chemistry and it spreads out the talent.

 

[Sam Spade]

The fact the Captain is averaging 2 goals a game hides a lot of flaws in the team. I also think you're severely under-rating what Schmidt was able to do. I have no doubt you can get a bottom pairing defender for peanuts essentially, but Schmidt was much better than any other bottom 6 guy around the league at breaking the puck out and moving with purpose. Those are skills that are hard to replace.

This is Djoos exact skill set. They need to give him the games and we will replace Schmidt, if Hershey is any indication, with more offensive upside.

 

[Coldplay619]

8-92-43
13-19-77
10-20-65
79-83-25

2-9
29-74
44-22

70
31

The dream.

 

[Langway]

Goalscoring can make up for D. Goalscoring can come from anywhere. Holtby is also not playing his best. It evens out IMO. Schmidt is seriously overrated here. Time will prove that out IMO. Caps could pick up a capable substitute fairly quickly before the deadline and not pay deadline pricing. They could also hope Djoos/Bowey step up.

With what cap space? They seem content going with 23 players so as to avoid a crucial, crushing waiver loss, being capped out and having no flexibility to add. Maybe they eventually are able to bring Bowey up but it remains to be seen whether Trotz can condition himself toward accepting two rookie defenders in the lineup. Thankfully, Chorney and Ness may be so bad that he has no other choice if they can't even survive let alone produce.

Schmidt obviously would have been a very valuable piece for them this season. I'm not sure he would have been able to make Carlson more effective but his skating and energy were valuable on a team that does a lot of going through the motions. He also would have made for a much more reliable minute eater than anyone else outside of the top four. Djoos may be able to replace 88's point production, which wasn't that great, but he may take a while to fully get his game in order to shoulder more of a load. In time the blueline may be fine but we're also seeing that the top four is rather limited and I'm not sure that will round into form in time as their rhythm improves. Niskanen should get better but I don't really expect excellence out of any of them. I don't expect it from anyone at this point and it makes it particularly hardly to ride the top-end guys to wins like other top-heavy teams have done.

So while Schmidt may never be a legit top pair defender, he's pretty squarely a 3/4 puckmover already and should only get better. That would have held more value at $2.25M than Connolly or Wilson or whatever third-line forward depth they've preferred to retain that probably won't do much of anything productive when it matters. Mostly, the front office and coaching staff don't seem to have been on the same page in fully understanding how valuable quality defenders are for how they play. Some of the underlying numbers so far do not bode particularly well for them (SSS) and for me it all comes down to finding better blueline solutions. Maybe they will but, again, those solutions also are likely to venture Trotz into territory he's likely uncomfortable with.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

With whatever cap space they can work out via trade or other moves. I’m not particularly worried right now honestly. I’m sure Trotz will find whatever comfort is needed to play the best options to get the team points each game. 5th game coming up. There’s time to let guys play it out and see who comes out on top. Schmidt IS a fairly solid 3/4. It’s his unrealized potential we disagree on. Sure he should improve a bit more. Not enough IMO to make him a top-pair all situations guy on a real playoff contender, therefor I doubt he’s hardly irreplaceable or prohibitively expensive to replace should they decide they need to go that route eventually. Barring a serious injury, I think they’re content to make the playoffs and let the young guys thunderdome it out with the vets.

 

[Portable Mink]

Gotta play youth to build up some deadline cap space.

Enjoy watching Ovi.

He is our cup. Watching his career is what we get.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Gotta play youth to build up some deadline cap space.

Enjoy watching Ovi.

He is our cup. Watching his career is what we get.

I think it’s time for Caps fan to come to accept this. Ovy’s career IS our Cup. Barring a run like 98, it’s a punchers chance from here on out, AT BEST.

I used to occasionally repeat to myself....”we could be Cleveland”, to make me feel centered, but even they have a recent champion!

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Someone said above that the Caps are on a road to nowhere. I feel this accurately represents the situation. We're not in a "win now", "Cup or bust" mode anymore, but we're not rebuilding either. We're retooling for more 2nd round exits basically.

What choice do they have? They can't tank because they're too good, they won't (and shouldn't) let go of the Ovie error just yet, they don't have a ton of talented young players, they don't have any cap space, they have minimal tradable assets. Options are pretty limited... play the team you have and hope something changes in April/May.

 

[txpd]

Is a line of Connolly - Eller - Wilson really that bad?

I saw someone post that the Caps had 2 first lines and 2 fourth lines. Eller is not a 4c. Connolly isn't a 4 either. Wilson is no longer just a 4. He can play all the way up the lineup. So, I am not sure why anyone would call them a 4

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Let em play....see what happens. Totally agree. Instead, people want to wring their hands about the D 4 games in, worrying about how it projects into April. For me, this feels like the Caps of my youth now....back to a punchers chance. By habit I recorded the 1st two games of the season. I’ve already stopped doing that. I watched period 1 against the Pens, went to bed early instead of watching more, early tee time the next day. Lowered expectations.

Feels a little freeing to not be so concerned with the team results honestly. It also feels like many want them to stumble early to #FIRETROTZ.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

What choice do they have? They can't tank because they're too good, they won't (and shouldn't) let go of the Ovie error just yet, they don't have a ton of talented young players, they don't have any cap space, they have minimal tradable assets. Options are pretty limited... play the team you have and hope something changes in April/May.

I know, it is what it is. It's pretty sad to see this team stuck in the no man's land of not being good enough to get over the hump and pass the 2nd round, but at the same time having an outside shot at the Cup. The excitement from the previous two seasons is gone.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I saw someone post that the Caps had 2 first lines and 2 fourth lines. Eller is not a 4c. Connolly isn't a 4 either. Wilson is no longer just a 4. He can play all the way up the lineup. So, I am not sure why anyone would call them a 4

Comedic effect?

 

[twabby]

What choice do they have? They can't tank because they're too good, they won't (and shouldn't) let go of the Ovie error just yet, they don't have a ton of talented young players, they don't have any cap space, they have minimal tradable assets. Options are pretty limited... play the team you have and hope something changes in April/May.

I'd tend to agree with this sentiment except when it comes to Carlson who I'd be willing to sell on. He is way too valuable to just let walk for nothing and it's becoming more and more clear that re-signing him might be a mistake unless they can get him on the cheap (not likely). Given his relatively low cap hit tons of teams should have room for him this season at the deadline and he should fetch even more than what Shattenkirk got last TDL because his reputation is much better than Shattenkirk's even if his play isn't really that much better, if at all.

Carlson hasn't really been a difference-maker in recent years so I'd be happy selling him at the deadline even if they become slightly weaker this season. This is yet another reason to get Bowey into the lineup ASAP to see if he can replace Carlson in any way going forward.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If he’s too valuable to let walk, why would he sign on the cheap? If he’s willing to sign on the cheap, he can’t be that valuable. Twabby logic?

You say he’s not a difference maker....try taking him out of this lineup and see what a difference it makes. Lol...

He’s going to cost more than Orlov. At least $6.5 per IMO. He’s not going to sign for cheap.



So your plan Twabby, if this is a playoff team, is to dump Carlson for assets at the deadline since he’s not going to sign for cheap?

 

[OV Rocks]

Goalscoring can make up for D. Goalscoring can come from anywhere. Holtby is also not playing his best. It evens out IMO. Schmidt is seriously overrated here. Time will prove that out IMO. Caps could pick up a capable substitute fairly quickly before the deadline and not pay deadline pricing. They could also hope Djoos/Bowey step up.

You are right, the best defense is a good offense, the Penguins proved that last season. However the problem with the Caps right now is they really don't have all that amazing of an offense. Currently there are 4 players who are controlling the scoring on this team. Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie. That is 4 players accounting for 60% of the teams total points. We have seen what happens to this team when they are top heavy. The Rangers throw out McDonagh and Stall to lock down Ovi and Nicky (now Kuzy), and it works. Then they take their chances playing 3 lines vs. 3 lines and the Caps don't have the goal scorers to beat the King. Or they face Pittsburgh. The first two lines even out and the Penguins find a way to crash the net and score more goals than the Caps bottom 6. Wash rinse repeat. This year I don't think the scoring is going to even out and it'll be a problem.

Off all the players in our bottom 6 this season look at their career highs. Minus Walker of course

Career High Goals
Beagle-13
Chiasson-13
Connolly-15
Eller-16
Graovac-7
Smith-Pelley-8
Wilson-7

Long way from a scoring top 9 there. Out of the list only Connolly strikes me as a player who can top his total.

I'll end with my beating of the drum, go get a scoring forward for the third line!!!! Galchenyuk, Duchene, SOMEBODY!!!! This NHL needs 3 lines that can get 50+ goals to win a cup. Especially when injuries come.

 

[twabby]

If he’s too valuable to let walk, why would he sign on the cheap? If he’s willing to sign on the cheap, he can’t be that valuable. Twabby logic?

You say he’s not a difference maker....try taking him out of this lineup and see what a difference it makes. Lol...

He’s going to cost more than Orlov. At least $6.5 per IMO. He’s not going to sign for cheap.



So your plan Twabby, if this is a playoff team, is to dump Carlson for assets at the deadline since he’s not going to sign for cheap?

I already said I don't expect him to sign on the cheap. So the choice is to either ride it out and lose him for nothing this offseason, or deal him and recoup some very good assets. Maybe he turns his career around but at this point it is looking like his 2014-15 season was the exception and not the norm so I'm not really interested in signing him to a big UFA deal.

The thing that makes Carlson a unique trade asset is that there is quite a gulf between his perceived value and his actual value IMO. He almost surely has a very high reputation around the league because he's a RHD (perhaps the most coveted position in the league behind 1C) who QBs the best PP in the league and on top of that he is a Team USA WJC hero and Olympian. And on top of that he has a very manageable cap-hit that shouldn't be an issue for most teams at the TDL.

However, digging a little deeper I think his actual value is quite overstated. As good as the PP is he was effectively replaced by Shattenkirk last season because he couldn't get the job done at the point. He doesn't drive possession at even strength (negative relative possession player basically his entire career) and he often makes braindead, lazy plays. His defensive numbers are suspect even if he does have offensive talent.

So the question I'd ask is that if he's not going to be a long-term solution does he move the needle enough this postseason to reject a first rounder + prospect (and probably more) that he almost surely could fetch at the TDL? It's an open question right now, and again this is why I want to see Bowey in the lineup ASAP. The Blues jettisoned Shattenkirk last season because they had Pietrangelo and Parayko and figured losing Shattenkirk wasn't enough to reject the first rounder + Sanford. Not saying the Capitals have that type of depth at RHD but if Bowey can come close to replacing Carlson's level of play (a big question of course) then I think you have to consider pulling the trigger on a trade.

 

[Langway]

What choice do they have? They can't tank because they're too good, they won't (and shouldn't) let go of the Ovie error just yet, they don't have a ton of talented young players, they don't have any cap space, they have minimal tradable assets. Options are pretty limited... play the team you have and hope something changes in April/May.

I think the answers continue to be in leveraging their strengths and aggressively attempting to manufacture solutions via stronger development. They've tried this same basic approach with a superior roster and it has failed. They're not likely to get the sort of development they need just by fixating on outcomes for five months and reassessing the rest only as that dictates. They need to take a step back...only Trotz seems largely unable to do so whether it's due to his own limited skill set as a coach, him coaching for his job or his belief that they must get off to a good start by any means necessary (or some combination of all three). There remains plenty within their control that they seem to gloss over and it's easily the most frustrating aspect of all. Great franchises have that self-awareness at every level and are unsparing.

It always come back to the process...the process of evaluating and improving. It requires a hunger to improve and can't coexist in a complacent environment. Their skill development stands out as relatively weak--even if their system itself is thin in raw ability--and that's only going to stick out more if their supposed developmental strength in team defense isn't on point due to stubborn beliefs that don't actually matter. The easiest way for them to remain a tough out is to develop Djoos and Bowey and still basically do what they do otherwise. That alone may be enough but it's overcoming those stubborn beliefs that Trotz has re: youth that could sink him. If that happens then, as good of a coach as he may be in some areas, it would be a blessing in disguise because the league that he may believe in isn't what the league is today or where it's headed.