Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 4

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txpd

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So basically the other thing I said? Okay. Point remains that goalies can take a while but Samsonov is not limited by much more than his technique and approach, so you might as well hitch your wagon to the guy unless the other option is stellar.

Even if Vanecek is consistenty playing better and after the 17 or so starts in a row showed he can handle the load? You trust pedigree over production?
 

HTFN

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Even if Vanecek is consistenty playing better and after the 17 or so starts in a row showed he can handle the load? You trust pedigree over production?
If we’re speaking long term, expansion-wise? Yeah. Short term, playoffs-wise, you play it exactly like I advocated playing it in ‘18: you give the opening start to the guy who earns it down the stretch (Grubauer) and give them what they deserve, but plan around the short hook if it’s looking tough and give the other guy a lower pressure entry point to the series. Give it to production, but don’t hesitate to switch to pedigree early for your best chance at a winning relief effort. If you don’t need it because production holds out, great.
 
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txpd

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If we’re speaking long term, expansion-wise? Yeah. Short term, playoffs-wise, you play it exactly like I advocated playing it in ‘18: you give the opening start to the guy who earns it down the stretch (Grubauer) and give them what they deserve, but plan around the short hook if it’s looking tough and give the other guy a lower pressure entry point to the series. Give it to production, but don’t hesitate to switch to pedigree early for your best chance at a winning relief effort. If you don’t need it because production holds out, great.

I was talking playoffs next month
 

HTFN

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I was talking playoffs next month
Then give it to Vanecek if he’s the hot hand going in, but if they lose two in a row swap them out. Like making a pitching change, or like when they swapped Grubauer, don’t make excuses for what you’re not seeing, just switch them before you’re in too big a hole to climb out of.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Then give it to Vanecek if he’s the hot hand going in, but if they lose two in a row swap them out. Like making a pitching change, or like when they swapped Grubauer, don’t make excuses for what you’re not seeing, just switch them before you’re in too big a hole to climb out of.

yep, no reason to be married to any decision for long. Neither has distanced themselves enough to hitch your wagon to a going down with the ship mentality in net this year.
 

txpd

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Then give it to Vanecek if he’s the hot hand going in, but if they lose two in a row swap them out. Like making a pitching change, or like when they swapped Grubauer, don’t make excuses for what you’re not seeing, just switch them before you’re in too big a hole to climb out of.

Down 0-2 with games 3 and 4 is a pretty big hole. If they do that this season, they will lose. If they lose the first 2 games, i would expect changes.
That said, I see no scenario short of injury where Samsonov isnt the G1 starter
 

Ridley Simon

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you can spot pick examples where it didn’t matter I’m sure, just as easy as soft goals wrecking a game or series could be presented.

im going with the prevailing logic, that soft goals are bad. Worse in the postseason where a series turns on one goal very often.

for this game, I could give a crap about this goal.....in the playoffs however, we all would.
Not if the result was the same (6-3 Win)
 

Ridley Simon

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Even if Vanecek is consistenty playing better and after the 17 or so starts in a row showed he can handle the load? You trust pedigree over production?
You want VV the starter. I get it. Hence nitpicking what IS does.

He just won 2 games in — so far this season — the hardest place in the NHL to win road games. Allowed 3 goals in 2 games. One was a SO (in the game he needed the SO as the other G was a wall as well). Both games were for the division lead, late in the season...so pressure was definitely a thing.

but let’s forget ALL of that, and just focus on the one goal he shouldn’t have allowed.

Forest thru the trees, man.
 

txpd

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You want VV the starter. I get it. Hence nitpicking what IS does.

He just won 2 games in — so far this season — the hardest place in the NHL to win road games. Allowed 3 goals in 2 games. One was a SO (in the game he needed the SO as the other G was a wall as well). Both games were for the division lead, late in the season...so pressure was definitely a thing.

but let’s forget ALL of that, and just focus on the one goal he shouldn’t have allowed.

Forest thru the trees, man.

Thats 2 games. One of which was questionable. 6 goals for is helpful. No would you put Sammy's 21sv, 3 goals against W over Vanecek's 38sv 1 goal against lose recently? You are not concerned that Sammy hasnt have 2 starts in a row at .900 sv% or better recently with starts in the .800 range more frequent than .900? Sammy wins the job on the 1 shutout? Ok
 

Melkor

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That was Vasilevskiy to a T until he figured it out. Every game against him with the Caps was like "oh, is this going to be the night this guy finds out how to be perfect" and then he poops two soft goals through his body and you're just looking at his potential like "that guy better not figure it all out any time soon".

You might as well go down with that ship, honestly.
This might relate to Vasi in some sense but I put his issues more in the mental category. Samsonov is not on his level in terms of talent and it's pace of developing. He's as physically imposing and likes the flashy stuff as Vasi does but he's not as fundamentally sound, not even close. Vasi always had this vibe about him that he knows what he's doing in there regardless if it's some circus save for the highlight reel or basic catch from 30 feet out. There's a reason he had been called by some media outlets back in the day the best goalie prospect since Tretiak. Samsonov has the mental issues on top of major technical flaws. He just oozes panick and uncertainty with all his moves in the net. Everytime there's a sense he's not sure where to put a rebound, whether he'd catch the puck that comes right into the glove, often the puck just comes right out the glove cause he's more busy shitting his pants than closing his fist on the puck that flew right in it. You really not sure abotut what his main strength as a goalie really. Like "yeah this guy's blocker side is really a problem for shooters out there" or "he won't let anything get past him down low". He can let the team down at any single one of the critical aspects of goaltending or even at all in the same game.
 

Langway

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Samsonov's first period on Thursday gives him the leg up...for now. It's all about what they've done lately and that will continue to be the case as the regular season wraps up. They may just keep running Samsonov out there until he faulters, although there's some risk in overloading him. Might as well see what his limits are if he keeps it up anyhow.
 

Silky mitts

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If Samsonov starts the next game it will be the first time he’s started 3 straight since October 2019, but you’re giving NYI reps against him when hopefully we’re playing them in 3 weeks
 

crab

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Vanecek and Samsonov have played about the same throughout the season. The Caps clearly favor Samsonov though and will give him first shot unless he falters down the stretch.
 

txpd

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If Samsonov starts the next game it will be the first time he’s started 3 straight since October 2019, but you’re giving NYI reps against him when hopefully we’re playing them in 3 weeks

I think the goalie needs the reps more than giving the Islanders reps against him helps them. Then he needs to play the 2 Pens games also
 

Ridley Simon

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Thats 2 games. One of which was questionable. 6 goals for is helpful. No would you put Sammy's 21sv, 3 goals against W over Vanecek's 38sv 1 goal against lose recently? You are not concerned that Sammy hasnt have 2 starts in a row at .900 sv% or better recently with starts in the .800 range more frequent than .900? Sammy wins the job on the 1 shutout? Ok
I’m not anointing anyone the starter yet. But I’m also not creating a narrative to tear down what IS just did. He won 2 very important playoff style games, and did it in playoff style form. One was on his head, the other was what the game gave to him. Where have we seen that before?

I don’t have a dog in this fight, and I like VV a lot. I was on his train as the 50% starter once the King went down. Look it up.

but tearing down IS after what just happened isn’t cool, IMO. And speaks to you wanting to be “right” about VV being the guy. That’s just what I am seeing here.

If I’m wrong, not the first time
 

maacoshark

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Thats 2 games. One of which was questionable. 6 goals for is helpful. No would you put Sammy's 21sv, 3 goals against W over Vanecek's 38sv 1 goal against lose recently? You are not concerned that Sammy hasnt have 2 starts in a row at .900 sv% or better recently with starts in the .800 range more frequent than .900? Sammy wins the job on the 1 shutout? Ok
I'd give Sammy a slight edge. He plays alot bigger and is alot more athletic and is more capable of stealing games. He does tend to move around too much and he loses his net when he is going post to post.
 
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txpd

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I'd give Sammy a slight edge. He plays alot bigger and is alot more athletic and is more capable of stealing games. He does tend to move around too much and he loses his net when he is going post to post.

what does that have to do with who is more accomplished? Which one has a better body of work over the last 20 games? Which one has proven they can play every other day for 15 or 20 games? Yes, Samsonov has a better pedigree.
 

txpd

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I’m not anointing anyone the starter yet. But I’m also not creating a narrative to tear down what IS just did. He won 2 very important playoff style games, and did it in playoff style form. One was on his head, the other was what the game gave to him. Where have we seen that before?

I don’t have a dog in this fight, and I like VV a lot. I was on his train as the 50% starter once the King went down. Look it up.

but tearing down IS after what just happened isn’t cool, IMO. And speaks to you wanting to be “right” about VV being the guy. That’s just what I am seeing here.

If I’m wrong, not the first time

Tearing down what Sammy just did? Which means what? He played a brilliant game with no offensive support and followed it with an average game that if he couldnt win, he doesnt deserve to play. If the Caps lose that game 3-2, do you feel the same way?
 

HTFN

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This might relate to Vasi in some sense but I put his issues more in the mental category. Samsonov is not on his level in terms of talent and it's pace of developing. He's as physically imposing and likes the flashy stuff as Vasi does but he's not as fundamentally sound, not even close. Vasi always had this vibe about him that he knows what he's doing in there regardless if it's some circus save for the highlight reel or basic catch from 30 feet out. There's a reason he had been called by some media outlets back in the day the best goalie prospect since Tretiak. Samsonov has the mental issues on top of major technical flaws. He just oozes panick and uncertainty with all his moves in the net. Everytime there's a sense he's not sure where to put a rebound, whether he'd catch the puck that comes right into the glove, often the puck just comes right out the glove cause he's more busy shitting his pants than closing his fist on the puck that flew right in it. You really not sure abotut what his main strength as a goalie really. Like "yeah this guy's blocker side is really a problem for shooters out there" or "he won't let anything get past him down low". He can let the team down at any single one of the critical aspects of goaltending or even at all in the same game.
That’s true now, it wasn’t true then. He was inexplicably, almost backbreakingly leaky for a few years and if memory serves it was a big reason they had to keep Bishop around, because every time they tried to elevate Vasilevskiy’s workload his brains seemed to leak out of his ears. Like Samsonov, they wanted him to take the reigns and he just wouldn’t seize control, and for all his potential you’d catch him whizzing across the crease taking himself out of plays as a younger goalie. Not to Samsonov’s degree, but he was hardly perfect.

It took a few years to dislodge some of those tendencies and make a guy who delivered on that potential.
 

HTFN

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Down 0-2 with games 3 and 4 is a pretty big hole. If they do that this season, they will lose. If they lose the first 2 games, i would expect changes.
That said, I see no scenario short of injury where Samsonov isnt the G1 starter
Okay, but you can’t really pull the trigger any faster than that without being blown out in game 2 anyway, so I’m not sure what your point is here.

Jackets series was as good as over too, until it wasn’t. Nothing really different about this team compared to that one except narratives.
 
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