Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

[txpd]

How would you explain Jensen’s defensive metrics being the best of every defenseman on the team? How would you explain them being some of the best in the NHL? And how would you explain them being even better away from Chara?

Metrics have their limitations(imagine Dirty Harry saying that). IIRC your metrics told you Orlov was better than Niskanen when those on the inside would tell you that Niskanen was the pair leader and that Orlov suffered immediately when positioned as the primary defenseman in his pair. There is NO CHANCE that Jensen is better than Chara is. IIRC you said that Djoos was carrying Orpik when it was easily the other way around

 

[DWGie26]

Interesting idea to protect Jensen. After trying so hard to give him away. Then keep everyone down the right side? We are beyond loaded at LD for next year. So you give them choice of Dillon or Orlov. That said, I suspect they protect Dillon and leave Jensen unprotected. They didn’t resign Dillon to let him walk. I would argue with his grit and size he is harder to replace than Orlov. Seattle will have money and 5.1M for top 3 dee is a bargain.

 

[twabby]

Metrics have their limitations(imagine Dirty Harry saying that). IIRC your metrics told you Orlov was better than Niskanen when those on the inside would tell you that Niskanen was the pair leader and that Orlov suffered immediately when positioned as the primary defenseman in his pair. There is NO CHANCE that Jensen is better than Chara is. IIRC you said that Djoos was carrying Orpik when it was easily the other way around

“We have to use a blend of the eye test AND the numbers. Also I’m going to ignore the numbers because they don’t agree with my eye test.”

 

[caps4cup]

Metrics have their limitations(imagine Dirty Harry saying that). IIRC your metrics told you Orlov was better than Niskanen when those on the inside would tell you that Niskanen was the pair leader and that Orlov suffered immediately when positioned as the primary defenseman in his pair. There is NO CHANCE that Jensen is better than Chara is. IIRC you said that Djoos was carrying Orpik when it was easily the other way around

I don’t really know if I would agree that Niskanen was the pair leader. He was definitely the stabilizing force of the pair but I would argue that Orlov was the slightly better player. I thought they both complimented each other well though. As for the metrics, from 15-18, Orlov was slightly better away from Niskanen and Niskanen was slightly worse away from Orlov. Very minuscule difference though over a very large sample size. The difference was more pronounced during 18/19, but neither of them were very good that year anyway. And I would argue that Orlov didn’t struggle at all last year, he was actually pretty darn good. I would say the reason he looked bad defensively at times (as well as the rest of the team) was Reirden. Now with a legit head coach, the defense as a whole looks so much better again. Niskanen looked great right when he got away from Reirden as well. Same thing with Jensen this year. And Gudas in FLA.

I’d say the same thing with Jensen this year. I think he’s learned a ton from Chara and Z is definitely the stabilizing force on the pair, but with the way Jensen is currently playing, he’s easily the better player of the two. His skating is almost unparalleled across the league, not just on the team, and now that he’s playing with confidence and making good plays with the puck, he’s obviously been very effective.

He also has the 5th best xGA/60 in the league among dmen with more than 200 mins played this year. If you break it down further, among dmen with more than 15 games played, he’s tied with Tanev for #1 in that category. He’s also ranked very highly here:

 

[DWGie26]

Jensen may be better than Chara. But Chara is more valuable. Just like Orpik.

 

[DWGie26]

Here is a crazy idea so let the flames fly. You may a deal with Seattle to take Siegs. Good young NHLer with upside, good penalty killer but crunched in numbers. In consideration for that you agree to trade Kuzy for one of the centers they pick (we would know who is available so we could probably dictate to some extent. Someone who may have a high salary but a short term (while Kuzy has long term). Gives us a 2C or 3C (and Eller plays 2C). Then you have CMM who could play next year or at least be able to come up without waivers. And Protas a year behind him. This solves getting rid of a left D and a center who could use a different team and allows us Center space to bring up youngsters

 

[Raikkonen]

That's trading 1C capable guy for one NHL teams dont want to protect. Gross. The sweetener for them to pick Siege will be much less expensive I tell you.

But Seattle picking Siege and getting some bonus for that is solid foundation.

 

[DWGie26]

Yeah... maybe there are other pieces. Draft picks maybe. I just hate Kuzy’s contract which is long and expensive at 7.8M with 2-3 centers in the wing in next 3 years. Lapierre is 2-4 years away i would think. but CMM could be ready next year. Protas in a year or 2. Will depend on what rest of year shows us.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

And for those of you who have NFI what that metric is:

"A player's WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player: a player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort"

Now, me, if I were asked about this advanced stat, I would say: "WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin', say it again!"

(But I'm an old cynic)

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don’t much care what happens. Just as long as they bring back Chara for another season.

Big Z or bust.

 

[Hivemind]

Re @HTFN in previous thread.
My eyes see that he still has heart and hustle, but that his ability to win 1v1s and his hands aren’t as impressive. I don’t question his willingness to compete. His skating has never been his strength, nor has he ever carried lines, but this season he looks more dependent on others than ever. I’d rather move him before he falls off a cliff like Knuble did, especially given his contract.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I don’t much care what happens. Just as long as they bring back Chara for another season.

Big Z or bust.

Tom Brady was just extended for 4 years, IIRC.

Extend Big Z!

 

[Raikkonen]

Yeah... maybe there are other pieces. Draft picks maybe. I just hate Kuzy’s contract which is long and expensive at 7.8M with 2-3 centers in the wing in next 3 years. Lapierre is 2-4 years away i would think. but CMM could be ready next year. Protas in a year or 2. Will depend on what rest of year shows us.

There is no guarantee even one of them will ever become top-6 center on the NHL level.

 

[Roshi]

Yeah, I was prepared to move on from Kuzy just few weeks ago at his lowest point yet to come, but even then Kuzy wasnt to be moved unless we are not getting a real top line C back. Not yet atleast, while we are still competing. We spent a decade for chasing a solid 1B-center, dont want to get back on that train for the last years of Ovie-era.

And now that Kuzy is getting it back together again, he is near unreplacable yet again.

Dubois based deal would have been an option, something something Monahan maybe if Kuzy goes noshow for another half of a season. But as Kuzy has been playing better lately, the whole concept of trading Kuznetsov should be iced for further evaluation again. Just too valuable and talented player when he is on his game.

One thing I dislike about Kuzy is his unwillingness to step up and take responsibility. Both on- and off-ice. He is not 22-years old world beater anymore. He needs to accept his part and responsibility to carry the team to make good for the bad streaks he goes through. On the other hand one thing I really like about Kuzy (besides the talent obviously), is the fresh light hearted attitude he brings. So he is controversial in that way too

 

[caps4cup]

I really don’t think Seattle would have to be enticed with additional pieces to pick Siegenthaler. He could step right in with them and play 2nd or 3rd pair minutes and be their top PK guy for about 1mil per year. He’s young, cost effective, and has outstanding defensive analytics.

 

[Roshi]

I really don’t think Seattle would have to be enticed with additional pieces to pick Siegenthaler. He could step right in with them and play 2nd or 3rd pair minutes and be their top PK guy for about 1mil per year. He’s young, cost effective, and has outstanding defensive analytics.

Siegs is interesting option for them, no question there, but they will propably still take Orlov, Dillon or Vanecek/Samsonov or maybe even Schultz (thats tough with 1 year deal though) over him if they are unprotected.

So it would propably take something added for them to skip the chance on choosing an even better player.

 

[EroCaps]

Letting Trotz walk for Todd Reirden is a fireable offense.

If the Caps don't make significant hay in the playoffs this year I want BMac gone.

 

[txpd]

I don’t really know if I would agree that Niskanen was the pair leader. He was definitely the stabilizing force of the pair but I would argue that Orlov was the slightly better player. I thought they both complimented each other well though. As for the metrics, from 15-18, Orlov was slightly better away from Niskanen and Niskanen was slightly worse away from Orlov. Very minuscule difference though over a very large sample size. The difference was more pronounced during 18/19, but neither of them were very good that year anyway. And I would argue that Orlov didn’t struggle at all last year, he was actually pretty darn good. I would say the reason he looked bad defensively at times (as well as the rest of the team) was Reirden. Now with a legit head coach, the defense as a whole looks so much better again. Niskanen looked great right when he got away from Reirden as well. Same thing with Jensen this year. And Gudas in FLA.

I’d say the same thing with Jensen this year. I think he’s learned a ton from Chara and Z is definitely the stabilizing force on the pair, but with the way Jensen is currently playing, he’s easily the better player of the two. His skating is almost unparalleled across the league, not just on the team, and now that he’s playing with confidence and making good plays with the puck, he’s obviously been very effective.

He also has the 5th best xGA/60 in the league among dmen with more than 200 mins played this year. If you break it down further, among dmen with more than 15 games played, he’s tied with Tanev for #1 in that category. He’s also ranked very highly here:

My point was that analytics have limitations and you post me more analytics. ok

 

[tenken00]

Obviously showing but good to actually hear the players say it themselves: the guys are having fun.





And if this goes through and Cap One Arena opens its doors within the next few weeks, would you guys go and watch the Caps play?

The application to open already submitted, just waiting for approval.

 

[txpd]

Letting Trotz walk for Todd Reirden is a fireable offense.

If the Caps don't make significant hay in the playoffs this year I want BMac gone.

Would you have signed Trotz to an extention before the 2017/18 season?

 

[txpd]

Tom Brady was just extended for 4 years, IIRC.

Extend Big Z!

Remember an NFL contract is a non binding agreement. But yea, another year of Z please

 

[txpd]

Kuzy is the prop that holds the window open as Backstrom and Ov decline. That assumes he is playing at 1c levels but the Caps wont find another 1c elsewhere. IMO the only circumstance where the Caps trade Kuzy is if his behavior causes a rift with his teammates and they move him to remove the problem.

I think the Caps are at his mercy unless McMichael turns out ot be a surprise home run.

 

[Calicaps]

Letting Trotz walk for Todd Reirden is a fireable offense.

If the Caps don't make significant hay in the playoffs this year I want BMac gone.

Good thing you're not in charge.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Everyone talking about Orlov being exposed is absolutely crazy.

Can't wait until he gets an extension, which only myself and a couple others have predicted - and want - in a couple years and everyone else's heads explode.

Caps keep their core players. It's the reason they've consistently been playoff contenders.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Kuzy is the prop that holds the window open as Backstrom and Ov decline. That assumes he is playing at 1c levels but the Caps wont find another 1c elsewhere. IMO the only circumstance where the Caps trade Kuzy is if his behavior causes a rift with his teammates and they move him to remove the problem.

I think the Caps are at his mercy unless McMichael turns out ot be a surprise home run.

I still think that the Caps go as Kuzy goes. When he's on, there's not many better superstars in the league. When he's on god mode, teams and defenses have to game plan around him - unsuccessfully - and we win the Cup.