Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

Part 2

 

Nick Jensen is tied for 8th on Caps in points, tied with Oshie for 6th in even strength points

 

From the last thread from @Hivemind :

Your points about his shot rate declining are well-taken. I didn't say there aren't red flags in Oshie's game, it just isn't enough at this point for me to want to leave him unprotected compared to a 4th defenseman. I think he's much more valuable than Brenden Dillon (who's also not really on a value contract), and I need to see a lot more from Justin Schultz before I think he's earned a protection slot over Oshie as well.

 

twabby, man, you lost me the moment you considered protecting Jensen!

Jensens body of work suggests he isnt top4 D. He wasnt meant to be one and isnt paid like one.

Hes supposed to be qualified to play 3rd pair minutes. Hes getting good results alongside Chara. At 3rd pair level. That isnt equal to being Schultz or Orlov.

Getting another Jensen is not that hard. Most probably Chara-Fever line would be not much worse while being more profitable for Caps future.

So Id consider Jensen strictly after protecting all guys who showed top-4 ability.

Including Dillon. The reasons behind exposing Dillon would be having Siege, Fever, AA and Chara.

If you look at it, GMBM showed ability to find defenders we need, target them and acquire for adequate price.

If you listen to Tex, you will know, players like Caps as a job, and more players will gladly join Caps in the future.

Therefore you cant be protecting low potential easy to acquire players.

You protect unique players and high potential top-4 guys.

If Schultz doesnt fail in May I bet he is protected, and one of the good playing D we discuss now is unprotected to make room for Fever next season. Its the most logical way it should be done strategically.

Will Caps lose good defensive guy? Sure. But that will enable them to use Fever finally. Which is what they need for the future (and salary cap maintaining with new Ovi's contract).

 

If Chara can handle another season it would help a lot. Many options post ED.

Somewhere in there should be a trade of one our D for Panik's role player with scoring abilities. It is a need.

 

It’s a tough call but I think Dillon is 4th or maybe even 5th on my list of defensemen I’d protect, and I like Dillon. LD is our deepest position and I like Orlov as a keeper over him. RHD who can skate are tough to find and we have three of them that I’d prefer not to lose, so both Schultz and Jensen probably get the nod over Dillon for me but it’s close. We also have zero RHD in the pipeline absent of Hugo Has who is probably years away from making this roster, if he does at all, so they’d need to go to free agency or a trade to fill a spot left by the departure of Jensen or Schultz whereas Dillon’s departure could probably be filled by someone already in the organization. I guess you could also expose Jensen and if he gets taken re-sign TVR.

My preference at this moment would be to ask Seattle what it would take to ensure they select Panik and hope it’s not anything more than a mid-round pick or a B/C prospect.

 

Poor TVR. To sign another contract just to watch highly regarded left handed prospect playing those minutes.

I doubt he will stay.

 

My opinion of Jensen isn't really based on what he's paid to do or the minutes he's playing now (though he is already seeing tougher competition than Schultz and is playing top PK minutes), it's more what I think he's capable of given his history and current ability. I don't think Chara is carrying Jensen at all since Jensen is actually doing a bit better beside Orlov than Chara. Not a knock on Chara, just saying that Jensen isn't relying on Chara for his gaudy on-ice numbers.

Jensen's body of work here and in Detroit suggests a second pair, shutdown defenseman who doesn't take a lot of penalties (he's a +2 in terms of penalty differential compared to -11 for Dillon) and a #1 PK option. It's no surprise that his xGA/60 is the best on the team despite having the most defensive zone starts on the blue line and facing above average competition. He knows how to defend, even if it looks different than the crease-clearing type that most people believe make a good defenseman.

I'd suggest a player of his type isn't exactly easy to find compared to Dillon, who hasn't shown the same defensive aptitude as Jensen even if he's more physical, and especially with several LHD in the pipeline who can be reasonably expected to replace him if Seattle selects him. Further, a cap-hit difference of $1.4M between Jensen and Dillon isn't nothing, if we're comparing their per dollar value.

If Schultz goes off I can see him being selected over Jensen as the correct move but I'm still skeptical. He's been decent recently but nothing special.

 

I feel like a broken record. But....What left defense are you using for defensive zone starts, critical defensive shifts, penalty kill, 5 on 6 protecting a win? Right now its Dillon and Chara. Orlov doesnt play those minutes.

 

Like just to be clear I really think Jensen is one of the top 5 or 10 best pure defensive defensemen in the league. He really is that good. I'd be putting him out there in every critical defensive situation.

 

“I don’t think Chara is carrying Jensen”.........


Wow. Some off the wall crap gets said here.


I’m of the belief that if you pulled Chara from that pair, Jensen is back eying the doghouse pretty fast with Siege as his partner.

 

I agree. You expose players that the organization has potential replacements for.

It's the same reason that I don't feel we can afford to lose Oshie. You have to immediately go out and search for a capable replacement. There sure as hell isn't one within the organization. Man, our drafting has sucked for a good long while now. You'd think that in all the years since we traded for Oshie we'd be able to draft one damn player to slot at top-6 wing in year 2022.

 

Well you had me until that.

 

Probably whoever deserves to be out there. Siegenthaler was trusted in tough situations and was lauded for his work on the PK last year and plays that kind of game. We don’t know how Fehervary or Alexeyev would handle those duties. Kempny could very well be back next year also. If I’m building a roster and I have to give away a good player for nothing, it’s going to be someone who has the best chance of being replaced.

 

Although he struggled for the first part of the season I would easily take Orlov over Dillon. I also can’t see the team not protecting Oshie.

It will come down to Dillon or Schultz for the last spot.

 

If they protect their 3 best defensemen so far this year under contract next year it’d be Carlson, Schultz, and Jensen. A different decision would mean a greater financial commitment or Siegenthaler.

 

MacLellan had Siegenthaler as an established penalty killer and Fehervary having gotten his first games in. He could have gone that way this season just by letting Dillon walk.

 

was dillon extended before or after we hired laviolette?

 

Dillon was re-signed on draft day, or Hendrix Lapierre day, so a week or two after we hired Lavi.

Edit: actually we hired Lavi on Sept 15 and draft day was Oct 6, so about 3 weeks in between

 

How would you explain Jensen’s defensive metrics being the best of every defenseman on the team? How would you explain them being some of the best in the NHL? And how would you explain them being even better away from Chara?

 

If Schultz isnt lights out in playoffs Id gamble on Kraken not liking his term (1 year left). Very risky option for them.

 

Whos that who played with Jensen besides Chara? How many minutes do they have together? Deployment? Competition?

I dont remember, I guess sample size on that is tiny enough to dismiss.

 

Jensen has only really played with Orlov 84 minutes) and Chara (229 minutes) this year. Both players see their defensive numbers significantly improved playing with Jensen than without him.

Jensen has had the toughest zone starts on the team at 35% ozone to dzone ratio. His competition has been relatively neutral this season, similar to Chara and most of the D corps on the team. No pairing has been sheltered.

The sample size for this season alone probably isn’t good enough to draw a conclusion, but he’s also been similarly excellent dating back to his career in Detroit. His only real hiccup was the first half of last season, but after that he was probably their best performing defenseman including in the bubble against the Islanders.

If his defensive numbers are the best on the team (xGA, GA, shots against), his teammates numbers are worse away from him than with him, he skates some of the toughest minutes on the team, and he’s put up similar results throughout his career, I think it’s fair to say he’s just really good defensively.

 

Maybe playing with future HOFer Chara gave him the confidence so that even away from him, he maintains his high level of play?

 

That's the hope. But we don't know as of now.