Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[kicksavedave]

If they go the 7F 3D route, it's Carlson, Orlov, ?

One of Schultz, Jensen, Dillon, Kempny.

Everyone else is a free agent so don't need to be protected. Unless they want to free up cap space by losing a Dman.

Can't see any reason to protect Kempny at this point. So its a choice between Dilly, Schultz and Jensen. See my post above for their (Kraken) decision criteria.

 

[Hivemind]

Leave Ovie unsigned until after the expansion and protect 8 total skaters instead of 7F, 3D.


1. Backstrom
2. Kuznetsov
3. Vrana
4. Wilson
5. Carlson
6. Orlov
7. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary
8. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary

 

[tenken00]

Can't see any reason to protect Kempny at this point. So its a choice between Dilly, Schultz and Jensen. See my post above for their (Kraken) decision criteria.

Pretty much the way I see it is that you can't keep Fehervary, Alexeyev and Siegenthaler (if we keep him) out forever.

And it's not a direct comparison or even great ones, but you could say

Jensen = Fehervary
Schultz = Alexeyev
Dillon = Siegenthaler

 

[Roshi]

Leave Ovie unsigned until after the expansion and protect 8 total skaters instead of 7F, 3D.


1. Backstrom
2. Kuznetsov
3. Vrana
4. Wilson
5. Carlson
6. Orlov
7. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary
8. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary

we are not leaving Oshie out from the list. I think that has been concluded since Timothy Jimothy didnt regress for this season.

We are keeping our top line 25+25 heart and soul and glue guy who is a leader and fan favourite. Even if it hurts us in 2024.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Carlson	protect #1
Orlov	trade him for picks and/or forward before the Seattle draft
Jensen	protect #2, his contract is a robbery
Dillon	protect #3
Schultz	not protected, Seattle shall not be interested by his one year left contract and I take Dillon over him
Chara	sign him for one year after the Seattle draft
Kempny	trade him to Seattle along with Hagelin, Oshie and picks before the Seattle draft
TVR	UFA
Siegenthaler	trade him for a forward before the trade deadline for the playoff run
Fevervary	bring him to the NHL roster next season
Alexeyev	bring him to the NHL roster next season
LaDue	UFA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Our next season D:

Dillon-Carlson
Fehervary-Schultz
Chara-Jensen
7D Alexeyev

 

[895]

Am I the only one who isn't sweating or caring too much about the expansion draft?

We can only lose one player regardless. If it's Vanecek, Schultz, Dillon, Sprong or Sheary it really doesn't matter that much to me. None of them are hard to replace internally or via UFA. None of them are on long term amazing value contracts.

The only wrinkle for me is the Oshie situation.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

UFA market will be below Zero this offseason. With $81.5M from Seattle to the market, no way we will see robbery signings like Sheary or Hoffman,

 

[kicksavedave]

Am I the only one who isn't sweating or caring too much about the expansion draft?

We can only lose one player regardless. If it's Vanecek, Schultz, Dillon, Sprong or Sheary it really doesn't matter that much to me. None of them are hard to replace internally or via UFA. None of them are on long term amazing value contracts.

The only wrinkle for me is the Oshie situation.

I'm not worried. OShie will be protected. We'll lose a player we may like to keep, but not a player who we can't replace. Probably a D. Maybe a backup goalie.

Who cares

 

[Roshi]

And what are we giving for Seattle in return for them taking all our ”bad contracts” that include our top6 forward, best pk-player, 7th dman and a guy who hasnt played for a year with combined 15% of their cap space? Why not add Panik there while at it too..

I get that you want to create cap space for a re-tool and think we can somehow replace the guys you are shipping out with cheaper and better guys, but even if that long shot pipedream would work out for us, why would Seattle play ball? That takes 4 of their roster spots, and every roster spot and every cap dollar they have is high value. All those guys are propably worth more for us than for them.

Stop thinking that Seattle will just take everything thats thrown their way. Every fan base seems to think Seattle is somekind of saviour for their teams cap casualties. They will play hard ball with the cap and they will choose the best players avaivable for them. Just like Vegas chose Schmidt, our fan base was living in a world where we thought they will just take our cap dumps for a middling pick.

Trading all that to Seattle takes a heavy picks/prospects package sided, and also manages to cut heavily our roster, leaving us looking for hopeful thoughts of a bullseye free agents or rookies.

 

[traparatus]

Leave Ovie unsigned until after the expansion and protect 8 total skaters instead of 7F, 3D.


1. Backstrom
2. Kuznetsov
3. Vrana
4. Wilson
5. Carlson
6. Orlov
7. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary
8. Dillon/Schultz/Jensen/Fehervary

Where is Eller? Where is Oshie?

No point in looking for a difficult solution to a non-existing problem. They'll expose Dillon, Jensen, Schultz, Siegenthaler plus Vanecek. We'll lose one of them and it will make squat all difference to the future of the team.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Its Orlov or Schultz you would think.

what has Dillon done to jump them?

 

[Calicaps]

While it might be so, do we just trade out all guys who have value? We will lose someone who has better value as traded.

If we trade ”Orlov” for picks, we lose both, ”Orlov” and the next guy on Seattles list. So whatever return you get for the guy you trade is valued for 1+1. For example you get 2x 2nd for Orlov and Seattle takes Vanecek. Which is worth more, two seconds or Vanecek.

If you were to trade Orlov, which they won't, part of the deal would need to be a cheap marginal player with enough term to be exposed.

 

[Corby78]

As much as it sucks to lose a good player all the teams are in this situation to an extent. And if they are left with scrubs after they protect 10 then they have a very thin roster anyway.

still bitter that the NHL has given the expansion teams a huge head start compared to what we had to deal with.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I seem to recall the Caps drafting a player who couldn't even skate! Thin gruel, indeed.

 

[895]

As much as it sucks to lose a good player all the teams are in this situation to an extent. And if they are left with scrubs after they protect 10 then they have a very thin roster anyway.

still bitter that the NHL has given the expansion teams a huge head start compared to what we had to deal with.

I don't think the rules favour them that much. For sure more than other expansions but not enough to make an instant contender. Most people thought the Vegas team was gonna be shit before the season started. Mcphee hit a home run. Seattle will not be nearly as good out of the gate.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Well if seattle takes one of our defenders they all have about a 5 mill cap hit so we can go shopping for a replacement level player in FA or trade

 

[Hivemind]

we are not leaving Oshie out from the list. I think that has been concluded since Timothy Jimothy didnt regress for this season.

We are keeping our top line 25+25 heart and soul and glue guy who is a leader and fan favourite. Even if it hurts us in 2024.

Oshie didn't regress? Are you sure?

Oshie has just one even strength goal this season. Remember that falling down poke goal against the Penguins that Locker went wild for? That's his only one. He only has four primary assists at even strength as well. His points/60 at even strength are only 1.45, sandwiched between Garnet Hathaway (1.68) and Richar Panik (1.33) among the Capitals forward ranks. His individual shot attempts are the lowest they've been since he joined Washington. In 15-16, he was attempting 12.19 shots/60, now it's fallen 24% to 9.83. He has a negative penalty drawn/taken ratio for the first time since joining Washington, and only Hatheway, Dowd, and Panik have fared worse in that category among Caps forwards.

He's 34 years old, counts $5.75M against the cap, and still has four years remaining on his contract. Is he going to completely implode tomorrow or the next season? Hopefully not. But he's already already turning into a sheltered offensive zone and powerplay specialist. His on-ice numbers and expected goals are still good, but that's because Laviolette is starting him in the offensive zone 77% of the time.

I love TJ Oshie. He's a heart-and-soul guy. He's a warrior. I wish he could spend 10+ years in Washington. But the years I want are those from before he joined the Capitals, not the ones as he approaches retirement. This is a win-win opportunity for both Washington and Seattle. The Capitals dodge the worst years of Oshie's contract, and the Kraken get their home-town kid, marketable face of the franchise, and likely captain.

 

[Roshi]

Oshie didn't regress? Are you sure?

Oshie has just one even strength goal this season. Remember that falling down poke goal against the Penguins that Locker went wild for? That's his only one. He only has four primary assists at even strength as well. His points/60 at even strength are only 1.45, sandwiched between Garnet Hathaway (1.68) and Richar Panik (1.33) among the Capitals forward ranks. His individual shot attempts are the lowest they've been since he joined Washington. In 15-16, he was attempting 12.19 shots/60, now it's fallen 24% to 9.83. He has a negative penalty drawn/taken ratio for the first time since joining Washington, and only Hatheway, Down, and Panik have fared worse in that category among Caps forwards.

He's 34 years old, counts $5.75M against the cap, and still has four years remaining on his contract. Is he going to completely implode tomorrow or the next season? Hopefully not. But he's already already turning into a sheltered offensive zone and powerplay specialist. His on-ice numbers and expected goals are still good, but that's because Laviolette is starting him in the offensive zone 77% of the time.

I love TJ Oshie. He's a heart-and-soul guy. He's a warrior. I wish he could spend 10+ years in Washington. But the years I want are those from before he joined the Capitals, not the ones as he approaches retirement. This is a win-win opportunity for both Washington and Seattle. The Capitals dodge the worst years of Oshie's contract, and the Kraken get their home-town kid, marketable face of the franchise, and likely captain.

Thats all stat-true. But looking at him playing says he is still doing all the things he did before. He is still putting same point totals he did before. He is still working his screening plays to get that extra blink of an eye more of time and ice for his linemates. He is making solid backchecking, good defensive plays. He is hitting and he is dangling.

No, i dont see a regressed Oshie when i look at him play. And i think he will be worth his paycheck for couple more seasons.

Shall he regress fast theres other ways to disappear that cap.

 

[Corby78]

Oshie didn't regress? Are you sure?

Oshie has just one even strength goal this season. Remember that falling down poke goal against the Penguins that Locker went wild for? That's his only one. He only has four primary assists at even strength as well. His points/60 at even strength are only 1.45, sandwiched between Garnet Hathaway (1.68) and Richar Panik (1.33) among the Capitals forward ranks. His individual shot attempts are the lowest they've been since he joined Washington. In 15-16, he was attempting 12.19 shots/60, now it's fallen 24% to 9.83. He has a negative penalty drawn/taken ratio for the first time since joining Washington, and only Hatheway, Down, and Panik have fared worse in that category among Caps forwards.

He's 34 years old, counts $5.75M against the cap, and still has four years remaining on his contract. Is he going to completely implode tomorrow or the next season? Hopefully not. But he's already already turning into a sheltered offensive zone and powerplay specialist. His on-ice numbers and expected goals are still good, but that's because Laviolette is starting him in the offensive zone 77% of the time.

I love TJ Oshie. He's a heart-and-soul guy. He's a warrior. I wish he could spend 10+ years in Washington. But the years I want are those from before he joined the Capitals, not the ones as he approaches retirement. This is a win-win opportunity for both Washington and Seattle. The Capitals dodge the worst years of Oshie's contract, and the Kraken get their home-town kid, marketable face of the franchise, and likely captain.

? He has been a better player in DC than stlouis

 

[traparatus]

Oshie didn't regress? Are you sure?

Oshie has just one even strength goal this season. Remember that falling down poke goal against the Penguins that Locker went wild for? That's his only one. He only has four primary assists at even strength as well. His points/60 at even strength are only 1.45, sandwiched between Garnet Hathaway (1.68) and Richar Panik (1.33) among the Capitals forward ranks. His individual shot attempts are the lowest they've been since he joined Washington. In 15-16, he was attempting 12.19 shots/60, now it's fallen 24% to 9.83. He has a negative penalty drawn/taken ratio for the first time since joining Washington, and only Hatheway, Down, and Panik have fared worse in that category among Caps forwards.

He's 34 years old, counts $5.75M against the cap, and still has four years remaining on his contract. Is he going to completely implode tomorrow or the next season? Hopefully not. But he's already already turning into a sheltered offensive zone and powerplay specialist. His on-ice numbers and expected goals are still good, but that's because Laviolette is starting him in the offensive zone 77% of the time.

I love TJ Oshie. He's a heart-and-soul guy. He's a warrior. I wish he could spend 10+ years in Washington. But the years I want are those from before he joined the Capitals, not the ones as he approaches retirement. This is a win-win opportunity for both Washington and Seattle. The Capitals dodge the worst years of Oshie's contract, and the Kraken get their home-town kid, marketable face of the franchise, and likely captain.

Do you think that Oshie having to play center and move up and down the line up for a large percentage of games might have anything to do with these stats?

 

[txpd]

Oshie didn't regress? Are you sure?
.

He is 0.69 points per game this season. 0.71 last season. 0.78 the season before. 0.64 the season before that. That looks pretty consistent to me. Its true he has only 1 evg. He also has 10 evp which is the 2nd highest total on the team.

Its not like he has gone invisible at even strenth

 

[twabby]

To be fair to Oshie and his 77% zone starts: every non-HDH player has been given generous zone starts. The 4th line is getting ~17-18% offensive zone starts, every other forward is 62%+, including Backstrom and Wilson at 72% and they aren't putting up the same xGF% as Oshie despite getting similar competition as well.

The point totals aren't fantastic at ES but if I'm going to make the argument that the point totals are somewhat unlucky for Kuznetsov then the same argument applies for Oshie. Indeed Oshie is shooting 2.86% at 5v5 this year where over the 3 prior seasons he was around 14%. I don't expect 14% to continue but something like 10% is reasonable, in which case he'd be somewhere around 4 goals at 5v5 this season.

I think I'm with @Roshi where I say that it's probably best to protect him for now and if the contract becomes a problem down the line there will be a way to dump it. Right now it's not a bargain, but it's not out of line either.

 

[Hivemind]

Do you think that Oshie having to play center and move up and down the line up for a large percentage of games might have anything to do with these stats?

His time at center is a very small portion of that sample. Even if you ignore his few games at center, having only 1 ESG in 20+ games gives reason to concern. And, unlike other players, his underlying numbers don't suggest that his individual production is going to increase. His shot production and individual point shares are trending the wrong direction, despite getting heavy offensive deployments.

? He has been a better player in DC than stlouis

I'd rather have his 2011-2015 seasons than his 2021-2025 seasons.

 

[Calicaps]

If you want to understand Oshie's value to this team, look no farther than the 2019 Carolina series. Reirden and Kempny aside, the loss of Oshie affected the team emotionally in a way that they could not overcome. Heart and soul stuff matters a ton.

 

[Hivemind]

To be fair to Oshie and his 77% zone starts: every non-HDH player has been given generous zone starts. The 4th line is getting ~17-18% offensive zone starts, every other forward is 62%+, including Backstrom and Wilson at 72% and they aren't putting up the same xGF% as Oshie despite getting similar competition as well.

The point totals aren't fantastic at ES but if I'm going to make the argument that the point totals are somewhat unlucky for Kuznetsov then the same argument applies for Oshie. Indeed Oshie is shooting 2.86% at 5v5 this year where over the 3 prior seasons he was around 14%. I don't expect 14% to continue but something like 10% is reasonable, in which case he'd be somewhere around 4 goals at 5v5 this season.

Kuznetsov's iCF rates and point shares haven't taken a nosedive like Oshie's have. That's the difference in my book. Oshie's a goalscorer more than a playmaker, and when his individual shot production starts to decline that's a red flag. Kuzy's iCF isn't what it was during 2016-19, but it's rebounded nicely compared to last season and isn't terribly far off from his career average. And Kuzy also makes up for it with his playmaking, and his on-ice stats are still very promising in that regard. Oshie's is the lowest since he's arrived in Washington, and about a 24% decrease compared to his first few years. His ixG is also the lowest since he arrived.