Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 3: Free Agency Freak Out

[Raikkonen]

Also I think Carlson openly said he would like to stay and then signed team friendly deal.

Holtby will have to do the same to stay.

 

[Charles Calvert]

Also I think Carlson openly said he would like to stay and then signed team friendly deal.

Holtby will have to do the same to stay.

I think Carlson got a fair deal. Wouldn't call it friendly.

And frankly Holtby shouldn't either. He deserves to cash in on his last opportunity to get a big payday. It just cant be here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Agreed. Giving long-term deals to 30+ goalies just isn't a very smart move.

That's something I think most of us agree on.

 

[trick9]

On the flip side, if he's showing that kind of loyalty to take less money to stay, he's still going to want term. But on top that he's holding all the cards. There is zero way he does that if the team doesn't show him that kind of loyalty back by giving him a NMC. That spells the end for Samsonov here because Holtby will then have to be protected on the expansion draft.

So, i still don't see it. But that could be one of the very few scenarios in which he'd stay here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Will be very curious to see who the suitors will be, that will offer him a $10mil'ish a year deal. I'd say we're in for a pretty good regular season from 70 this year. If he's in Vezina form early, watch things get fun around here.

 

[txpd]

When you consider the salary Karlsson got, Carlson's deal is friendly.

Backstrom and Ovechkin deserve to cash in as well and its pretty clear that neither intends to do that. Holtby isn't going to take a one year deal, for sure, but he well might be willing to work with MacLellan so the team remains strong. I think its kind of a long shot but Ive seen his comments already about wanting to stay.

As for Samsonov. I look at him as we looked at Grubauer. You keep him til you cant. If anytime in that process you need him as the primary, you have him. I wouldn't push Holtby out to make room for Samsonov, nor would I push out Samsonov if Holtby can stay.

 

[Charles Calvert]

Will be very curious to see who the suitors will be, that will offer him a $10mil'ish a year deal. I'd say we're in for a pretty good regular season from 70 this year. If he's in Vezina form early, watch things get fun around here.

I think a Vezina form season from Holtby makes things LESS interesting. Because if he plays out of his mind, you 100% are keeping him. The Capitals are playing for the here and now, and futures right now is irrelevant. Contend for as many Cups as you can with probably the two best Capitals the franchise have ever had.

It's going to be more interesting if by March Holtby is having a bad season, like .900 and 3.00 GAA.

 

[Armchair GM]

Oh dear me. Ghost as our #1? We want the Flyers defense?

So the plan for parades is giving up a top 5 defenseman in the NHL (4th in Norris voting, regardless of feelings around who gets the votes, backs this up) and downgrade to a 2nd pairing smurf sized defenseman .... so we can upgrade our 2RW?

That’s the parade route?

All about asset management. Carlson had two stroke seasons. Returning to his average play is a matter of when. 29yo.

If you look caps 1st line and 1stpp, you can throw in a good offensive D and ta-da, 70 points season incoming.

Well, its win now i guess. Old farts have 3 year window to win.

 

[txpd]

If you look caps 1st line and 1stpp, you can throw in a good offensive D and ta-da, 70 points season incoming..

This is the any monkey on defense can do it theory. Its a load of shit.

 

[Random schmoe]

I do think it's possible that Holtby would be willing to play in Seattle based on his personality and politics.

Would that include a long term deal and waiving a NMC for the draft in a planned deal? No idea. Just a thought though.

 

[um]

I think a Vezina form season from Holtby makes things LESS interesting. Because if he plays out of his mind, you 100% are keeping him. The Capitals are playing for the here and now, and futures right now is irrelevant. Contend for as many Cups as you can with probably the two best Capitals the franchise have ever had.

It's going to be more interesting if by March Holtby is having a bad season, like .900 and 3.00 GAA.

If he does get back to Vezina form I guess moving out 1 or 2 of Eller/Panik/Hagelin/Jensen/Kempny shouldn't be too hard... maybe even Oshie but thats a little more tricky.

 

[um]

I do think it's possible that Holtby would be willing to play in Seattle based on his personality and politics.

Would that include a long term deal and waiving a NMC for the draft in a planned deal? No idea. Just a thought though.

not sure why Holtby would do us that favour if he does have a NTC, It's pretty unlikely.

Maybe if Samsonov were to dethrone him in 2020-21 like Murray did to Fleury.

 

[trick9]

So Holtby leaves a lot of money on the table to stay here, for just a few seasons? Only to waive for a complete question mark of a team later on?

Why does he stay here then? Does he want to live here at whatever cost, or win? If he wants to win, he's not going to agree to go to Seattle. Not even after what Vegas did in their 1st season. He's going to have much better candidates who are going to give him much more money in Free Agency.

 

[Armchair GM]

This is the any monkey on defense can do it theory. Its a load of ****.

Well, Im saying some potential good young D could reach that level, If provided the right circumstances.

 

[Raikkonen]

Holtby isn't going to take a one year deal, for sure, but he well might be willing to work with MacLellan so the team remains strong. I think its kind of a long shot but Ive seen his comments already about wanting to stay.

As for Samsonov. I look at him as we looked at Grubauer. You keep him til you cant. If anytime in that process you need him as the primary, you have him. I wouldn't push Holtby out to make room for Samsonov, nor would I push out Samsonov if Holtby can stay.

Well, options are limited. If Holtby wants to help he can only sign 1 year THEN long term contract (after ED).

And then if there is a big need for cap space (maybe even not, if it raises enough after ED) you trade Holtby for some assets (or at least dump him retained and get a lot of cap space).

That's why I expect Backstrom to sign first and be an example of team friendly core guy.

Basically, everyone signs Hayes's contract

PS: Didnt calculate but while Samsonov is cheap even buying out Holtby is OK. Especially if it's rebuild/retool or something when cap space should be available. The critical juncture is just next season (2020/21). Thus shenanigans.

PPS: I'd also dump Oshie before Holtby if latter is playing good in Spring.

PPPS: Samsonov should play about at least 40-50 games until we can say he's maybe good.

 

[Raikkonen]

@Carlson

these last 2 seasons by him weren't some magical. his overall score was inflated due to pp numbers which he didnt have in the Green era

his ES stats were good even before, also he had tough assignments (playing with Alzner) for years

 

[trick9]

Well, Im saying some potential good young D could reach that level, If provided the right circumstances.

Like who? One of our D prospects? Someone who is available right now?

I'm curious. Who has 70-point potential?

 

[Raikkonen]

OK, Holts signing 2 year contract with 14M bonuses July 1st 2021
With 7-8M cap hit.

Taking him Seattle will have to pay a lot and only for 1 year control (of an old goalie).

 

[Blades of Steel]

1 year at 7M would work too, if Holts is ok with that. Doesnt handicap the team and has good opportunity at July 1st after expansion draft.

Thats leaving a lot of money on the table most probably... But maybe he wants to stay.

There was a time Rask was paid 4M behind 6M (?) Tim Thomas. And it worked for all in the end.

Id try to keep Holtby as long as Samsonov didnt prove to be better

yeah.. but i just don't see it. Holts should get a major contract and for the most part well deserved. It's going to be time to let go of Holts soon IMO.

 

[txpd]

Well, Im saying some potential good young D could reach that level, If provided the right circumstances.

Its just not true. Mike Green was good at it. He missed a lot of time for injuries and lost his touch. They put Carlson in that role and he wasn't that good. Niskanen played that role a lot during that period because Carlson was erratic and out with the ankle injury. He wasn't good at it. Carlson finally found the touch.

Its like saying that Backstrom or Kuznetsov aren't elite passers because they are loading up points passing the puck to Ovechkin.
Carlson fits. The kind of fit that is hard to find.

Could a good young defenseman produce like Carlson? Sure. The right player could. But players the quality of Carlson don't grow on trees. Getting another one is pretty hard to do.

 

[Hivemind]

When you consider the salary Karlsson got, Carlson's deal is friendly.

They aren't the same tier of player, not even close.

That being said, I wouldn't have given Karlsson that money after his groin injury. Way too much risk there now.

 

[Armchair GM]

Like who? One of our D prospects? Someone who is available right now?

I'm curious. Who has 70-point potential?

It has come up many times recently, that Ghost is available. Him, or his pier.

I just hate to see Bura and Djoos go, while Caps get older all the time.

Just another Forsberg-kind-of-a decision. I mean look at the Wild nowadays. Its the same result. Bunch of grandpas playing in top6. Keep Ovie, Backs. These guys are legends.

But the other old guys. They have to move at some point.

It's just a way of thinking. Buy low sell high. I love Carlson, but look at it this way.

Players tend to peak in between the ages of 25 to 30 years old, in my mind anyway. Carlson spent those years in the DC, signed a friendly contract, gave us a cup even. What more can you ask? He has played two amazing seasons and has term left. His market value assetwise is absolutely stellar atm.

Would it be controversial move?
Yes.
Would it be selfish and cold blooded move from the GM? Throw a star out after getting his best?
Yes.

Like some other guy said, Caps shoulda moved Holtby last year becouse of cap limitations and his peaking market value.

I deserve all the heat to even come up with this, but the GM should find a way to give own players a change by moving older, more expensive people out.

Ps. VGK not sining Gusev is the most idiotic move. He will cry later. Huuuuge upside, but crappy marketvalue.

 

[txpd]

They aren't the same tier of player, not even close.

That being said, I wouldn't have given Karlsson that money after his groin injury. Way too much risk there now.

Karlsson didn't look good on defense at all in the playoffs and the groin injury is an issue. But you think that Karlsson dragging a leg around and short on defensive mobility is an entire class of defenseman better than Carlson? I'd rather have our guy than that other guy

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Karlsson didn't look good on defense at all in the playoffs and the groin injury is an issue. But you think that Karlsson dragging a leg around and short on defensive mobility is an entire class of defenseman better than Carlson? I'd rather have our guy than that other guy

A healthy Karlsson is a step above Carlson. Karlsson is a game changer.

Karlsson isn't healthy, though, so I'd prefer Carlson.

 

[trick9]

It has come up many times recently, that Ghost is available. Him, or his pier.

I just hate to see Bura and Djoos go, while Caps get older all the time.

Just another Forsberg-kind-of-a decision. I mean look at the Wild nowadays. Its the same result. Bunch of grandpas playing in top6. Keep Ovie, Backs. These guys are legends.

But the other old guys. They have to move at some point.

It's just a way of thinking. Buy low sell high. I love Carlson, but look at it this way.

Players tend to peak in between the ages of 25 to 30 years old, in my mind anyway. Carlson spent those years in the DC, signed a friendly contract, gave us a cup even. What more can you ask? He has played two amazing seasons and has term left. His market value assetwise is absolutely stellar atm.

Would it be controversial move?
Yes.
Would it be selfish and cold blooded move from the GM? Throw a star out after getting his best?
Yes.

Like some other guy said, Caps shoulda moved Holtby last year becouse of cap limitations and his peaking market value.

I deserve all the heat to even come up with this, but the GM should find a way to give own players a change by moving older, more expensive people out.

Ps. VGK not sining Gusev is the most idiotic move. He will cry later. Huuuuge upside, but crappy marketvalue.

Ghost is available because he is a 4th forward who needs to stay sheltered. You can't compare him to Carlson. If you put him out against other teams top-lines and get hemmed in your own zone a lot, you are in deep waters. He's not a #1 guy and if you played him like a one in the Playoffs, he would get abused out there. Hard pass on him.

How is this team anything like Wild? They don't draft well and their team basically consists of guys they signed from Free Agency, because they can't develop their own players. That alone is a recipe for disaster. Our team has been growing together for a long time, and they just get older like everyone. Wild are old because they have to fill their line-up with UFA's. Propably the worst comparison to this team out there.

Imagine the blow-out it would have caused if the Capitals dealt Holtby after he won us the Cup. He saved Grubauer's ass and carried this team through their own managements terrible move to start Grubauer and won them the Stanley Cup. If you trade him after that and say Grubauer is our guy you are the laughing stock of the entire league and i doubt you would have a job for much longer after that. No matter if it's good idea to sell high. Circumstances do matter.