Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019-20 Season Pt. 6: 2020

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francaisvolantsparis

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“Could”

but to educate you....it’s been done 18 times by my count. Might be off be one or two...
They are five since 2000. Only 2009 Malkin had more points than Kuzy. Then you are a coach, you better quickly say "it is Kuzy's fault, he doesn't play all the time like Wayne Gretzky" otherwise it is your perceived fault. Had Kuzy scored less points in 2018 playoffs, we would never have this drama about him. The problem is only virtual, mostly due to the cowardice of an incompetent coach.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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It's almost like this 5v5 stat you like to use to argue that guys like Boyd are elite is somewhat contingent on what lines are being used against the players, the context of how they're being used in games, what a full 200 foot game looks like, and what that dispersal of 60 minutes looks like.

Kuz averages almost 3 minutes less a game over the last three years vs. Crosby. That means his opportunities to increase his point share in regards to that stat are often platooned over more games, and thusly more energy. Kuzy is rarely, if ever dispersed to eat minutes with a lead late in a game, Crosby on the other hand almost is a guarantee to do that. Kuzy plays mostly second line, he's at best the second player the opposition gamelans against when they plan for the Capitals. Crosby is 1C and public enemy number one in every city he plays.


The stat, like plus/minus, is broken because it takes 60 minutes of 5v5 as being equal at face value, but it's not. The scoring opportunities of someone being used over 60 in only offensive minded situations isn't comparable to someone who is defensively sound enough to be on the ice late in a close win.

Essentially, it's not fair to compare 60 minutes of the NHL that Travis Boyd sees to 60 minus of the NHL that Ovechkin sees. This stat will always benefit guys who don't see a ton of time in high risk situations. It makes sense that the Travis Boyd's of the world probably knock this out of the park because he takes a month to fulfill the requirement and he's never near the ice when the other teams best lines are on it.
Kuznetsov is playing against best opposing players most of the time, not Crosby.
 

Skrudland2Lomakin

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Name five who did.
Chronologically going backward until I got to 5

Couture in 17
Briere in 10
Malkin in 09
Sakic 96
Leetch 94


So definitely a rare feat (although a ton of guys got into the 27-28 range) but doesn't really make you a GOAT.


I would say three of those five were considered legitimate superstars outside of that moment. Both Couture and Briere, while great players, are just classic examples of getting on a playoff heater. So it's not exactly definitive as to whether it's the act of an amazing player like you're saying, or a player who was just playing out of their mind for that moment, like we're saying.
 
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Skrudland2Lomakin

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Kuznetsov is playing against best opposing players most of the time, not Crosby.
This is subjective, so I won't get stuck in that hole.


What isn't subjective is the rest of what I said though. The stat is broken because it predicates itself on the idea that 60 minutes is 60 minutes regardless of the player, we know that to just not be true. Crosby playing 20 minutes a night and 3 of those might be him playing the last half of a 3rd period while trying to protect a 2-1 lead is not equitable to Kuzy playing 17 minutes and only being deployed when the team is trying to score.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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I have no problem with you. You are a nice guy. I have my opinions, you have yours. It is great like that. We need many different points of view in general. I just point out at some level of common respect, we better have one to each other, so this conversation is enjoyable for us and other readers. I hope there is no moderator here who brought likes to some toxic-so posts. I really hope so..

And I have no problem with you.

It’s not toxic just because you disagree with me....now stop being melodramatic and get back to hockey. If you can’t take the pushback, don’t try to sell crazy around here, otherwise buckle up and debate with a thicker skin.
 
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francaisvolantsparis

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This is subjective, so I won't get stuck in that hole.


What isn't subjective is the rest of what I said though. The stat is broken because it predicates itself on the idea that 60 minutes is 60 minutes regardless of the player, we know that to just not be true. Crosby playing 20 minutes a night and 3 of those might be him playing the last half of a 3rd period while trying to protect a 2-1 lead is not equitable to Kuzy playing 17 minutes and only being deployed when the team is trying to score.
This season Crosby played less than 9 minutes against EN. Malkin played more. Kuznetsov played more than the double. Crosby does nothing special, Kuzy doesn't. And Crosbys' stats are not special at all.
 
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trick9

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Just curious. How did you feel about Backstrom's new contract?

It's a reward of the past. Year more than i wanted but around what was expected. If you are asking do i think he will be worth that contract in the final years? No.


So, if you could trade Kuzy + 2 Caps D-guys that aren't Carlson, Orlov, Fever, or AA, + maybe a pick for Jack Eichel, would you do it.
Both Eichel and Kuzy may be due for a change of scenery. Buffalo will go nowhere w/o more D depth. And Kuzy and Eichel are sorta comparable - since 2015-16, Kuzy has 343 points and Eichel has 337. Eichel is younger, his PPG is better, and his last two years show him to be on an up slope, while Kuzy's last two years show the opposite. And Eichel has produced w/o a supporting cast - so it may not be possible. But if Buffalo was willing to entertain it, would you?

Obviously, would prefer not to have to entertain it (and I thought Kuzy performed a bit better than several of our other forwards in the playoffs this year - low bar), but the body of work from him since the Cup says you might have to think about it.

I would do that in a second. Jack Eichel is one of the only guys who isn't the issue in Buffalo. I think Sabres asking price would be closer to Kuznetsov and Carlson for Eichel and something, though.

People expecting Kuznetsov to be defensively elite 1C who produces consistently do realise that would make him the best center in the NHL? I don't think he has that potential to consistently dominate. That's just expecting way too much. Sidney Crosby was bleeding goals against and had a really bad regular season. Connor McDavid was on the ice for most of the goals the Oilers conceded in the Playoffs and generally lacked effort at times. Nathan MacKinnon might be closest to that guy right now but even he has struggled a lot early on his career, and his team is about to be 0-2 down again in the series. David Pastrnak is basically like a winger shooter version of Kuznetsov but the Bruins have done a masterful job of masking his issues by playing him next to 2 elite defensive players in Bergeron and Marchand.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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no overreactor.....it wasn’t.

probably better you worry about your own crazy antics before dishing out advice.
It is not about me. It is about everyone. You make this discussion toxic to read. Generally, people who are 'all the time right', react toxically to anyone who has a different point of view. These persons are not really interesting to read, they are not interesting at all.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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It is not about me. It is about everyone. You make this discussion toxic to read. Generally, people who are 'all the time right', react toxically to anyone who has a different point of view like me. These persons are not really interesting to read, they are not interesting at all.

obviously being over dramatic is your thing, so enjoy your drama....you created it. I’d rather talk hockey.
 

Kalopsia

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Hereunder some 5v5 only performance analisis for forwards based on 2019/20 regular season stats:
...
This impartial statistical only analysis leads us to the conclusion on what we have in terms of line needs and player level of play.

As someone who's studying statistics, I appreciate your effort to remove your own biases from your analysis by taking a statistical only approach. It's easy to fall into the trap of starting with a conclusion and then find stats to support it (as someone once said, "most people use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost - more for support than illumination"), and it doesn't seem like you've done that here. When I was in high school and undergrad I used to try to come up algorithms to evaluate players, but I definitely cheated and adjusted the metrics when the results gave me what I thought were wonky results. Ironically, that's what got me interested in statistics, and getting a formal education in statistics is what killed my interest in hockey analytics.

So with that said, I think there are some pretty big flaws in your analysis.

First, sample sizes. It's really difficult to do analysis based on goals as your event because they happen so rarely that you'll have a lot of variance in your data unless you're looking at really long periods of time - like multiple seasons worth - and if you do that in hockey you start to run into problems with conditions changing drastically over the course of the study period. This is why shot attempt based metrics have become so popular - with ten times the events, things stabilize a lot faster. Those metrics still have issues, but that's another topic. This is especially going to be a problem for your playoff analysis. There's virtually no situation where you can draw meaningful conclusions from single digit data points.

Second, context. Players don't operate in a vacuum. You've made some attempt to factor this in by comparing players to their teammates, but you're still leaving a lot out. Things like zone starts, opposition, and on-ice save percentages are huge factors that you should be adjusting for, though this obviously isn't easy to do. Your method is always going to underrate players like Eller and Dillon who get tasked with playing a shutdown role against opponent top lines. Those guys may end up underwater in goal or possession stats, but someone has to go up against the opponent's top line, and if they end up less underwater than any of their teammates would have been had they been tasked with that role, they're providing a net benefit to the team.

Third, there's an underlying flaw in the assumptions about using GF/GA as an individual stat, which is also a flaw with the shot attempt stats. The implicit assumption is that every player on the ice is equally responsible for each goal for or against, which obviously isn't the case. A model is only as good as its underlying assumptions, so this is pretty much a fatal flaw. I don't know of any other sport where it's harder to separate out individual contributions than in hockey. It's what makes statistical analysis of hockey damn near impossible, and why I've pretty much given up on hockey analysis until tracking technology improves enough to give us more granular data.
 
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Usually don't like the Junkies on 1067 but they had Alan May on and this is the most I've heard 1067 (well technically NBCSW Junkies) in years

Alan May was always one of my favorite analysts.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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As someone who's studying statistics, I appreciate your effort to remove your own biases from your analysis by taking a statistical only approach. It's easy to fall into the trap of starting with a conclusion and then find stats to support it (as someone once said, "most people use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost - more for support than illumination"), and it doesn't seem like you've done that here. When I was in high school and undergrad I used to try to come up algorithms to evaluate players, but I definitely cheated and adjusted the metrics when the results gave me what I thought were wonky results. Ironically, that's what got me interested in statistics, and getting a formal education in statistics is what killed my interest in hockey analytics.

So with that said, I think there are some pretty big flaws in your analysis.

First, sample sizes. It's really difficult to do analysis based on goals as your event because they happen so rarely that you'll have a lot of variance in your data unless you're looking at really long periods of time - like multiple seasons worth - and if you do that in hockey you start to run into problems with conditions changing drastically over the course of the study period. This is why shot attempt based metrics have become so popular - with ten times the events, things stabilize a lot faster. Those metrics still have issues, but that's another topic. This is especially going to be a problem for your playoff analysis. There's virtually no situation where you can draw meaningful conclusions from single digit data points.

Second, context. Players don't operate in a vacuum. You've made some attempt to factor this in by comparing players to their teammates, but you're still leaving a lot out. Things like zone starts, opposition, and on-ice save percentages are huge factors that you should be adjusting for, though this obviously isn't easy to do. Your method is always going to underrate players like Eller and Dillon who get tasked with playing a shutdown role against opponent top lines. Those guys may end up underwater in goal or possession stats, but someone has to go up against the opponent's top line, and if they end up less underwater than any of their teammates would have been had they been tasked with that role, they're providing a net benefit to the team.

Third, there's an underlying flaw in the assumptions about using GF/GA as an individual stat, which is also a flaw with the shot attempt stats. The implicit assumption is that every player on the ice is equally responsible for each goal for or against, which obviously isn't the case. A model is only as good as its underlying assumptions, so this is pretty much a fatal flaw. I don't know of any other sport where it's harder to separate out individual contributions than in hockey. It's what makes statistical analysis of hockey damn near impossible, and why I've pretty much given up on hockey analysis until tracking technology improves enough to give us more granular data.
Thank you for your post! I do agree with everything you say except for Eller. His line doesn't really play more minutes against top opponents than the other lines do. My opinion is that the individual stats can tell you more about a player than the on-ice stats. As an example, 5v5 Hits taken/60 is a straight forward indication for the players skating ability. Carlson and Orlov are our best defensemen. They are the prime targets for all opposing forwards, but they are taking less amount of hits. They are outstanding skaters, they avoid a lot of potential hits. Or the takeaway stat. It says a lot about the players defensive abilities. Some of these stats are good player signatures, as they don’t really change from season to season or with the team changes for the same player. Today’s hockey stats are not perfect at all. We don’t even know the number of puck controls by players and number of passes done during the game. But one thing is clear, you can see much more from the after-game stats analysis than then you are simply watching the game in real time on TV. I try to develop some simple GF/GA and on-ice SV% based player comparisons to enlighten an alternative point of view to the dominant biased beliefs and stereotypes about our players. Sometimes the stereotypes are correct, sometimes they are odd. Once I took all the stats one by one for Ovechkin and Crosby, then they are both on the ice facing each other since they both joined NHL. My analysis was clearly saying, Ovechkin is consistently destroying Crosby one on one, face to face. This discussion had a lot of success on the main boards.
 
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searle

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Aren't there stats you can look at for the average time on ice of the opposition skaters to get a feel for whether you're playing against the 4th liners or the stars?
 

txpd

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Oh, you forgot Todd Reirden. He is a professional in the sport and stuff.

Whatever you want. The death of expertise. You believe only expert sources that defend your point of view and the others including the team GM dont know as much as you. Ok. Ok.....I have a different view, but ok. Moving on
 

hb12xchamps

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Crosby is a 2.36 point/60 on 5v5, Kuznetsov is 2.40. In last three regular seasons combined. Kuznetsov was better player the last three seasons. Taking Kuzy over Crosby TODAY is an option. Denaying it is irrelevant.
Crosby actually plays the game well at both ends of the ice, unlike Kuznetsov. He outproduced Kuznetsov last season by a fair margin, all while playing a decent portion of the season hurt. Plus, he did it with a revolving door of linemates, especially once Guentzel was injured. Kuznetsov mainly played with the greatest goal scorer of our generation and arguably a top 3 power forward in the game today. Crosby scored 5 less points in 20 less games.

Your posts about Kuznetsov are very one sided. He arguably could be better than the majority of the league if he had even 75% of the drive that a guy like Crosby has. That's the issue though, Kuz doesn't have the drive to be a consistent performer. He won his cup and got a fat contract and now takes tons of shifts and games off. You hate to compare him to Semin, but the similarities in terms of their laziness and drive are pretty damn close.
 
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tenken00

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What are some of the free agent goalies or trade candidates that we could realistically be looking at to pair with Samsonov? I feel like the goalie position is the biggest unknown going forward team personnel-wise.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Crosby actually plays the game well at both ends of the ice, unlike Kuznetsov. He outproduced Kuznetsov last season by a fair margin, all while playing a decent portion of the season hurt. Plus, he did it with a revolving door of linemates, especially once Guentzel was injured. Kuznetsov mainly played with the greatest goal scorer of our generation and arguably a top 3 power forward in the game today. Crosby scored 5 less points in 20 less games.

Your posts about Kuznetsov are very one sided. He arguably could be better than the majority of the league if he had even 75% of the drive that a guy like Crosby has. That's the issue though, Kuz doesn't have the drive to be a consistent performer. He won his cup and got a fat contract and now takes tons of shifts and games off. You hate to compare him to Semin, but the similarities in terms of their laziness and drive are pretty damn close.

Alex Semin and Evgeny Kuznetsov are both amazing players, ones of very few best players who ever played for Caps. You know what is common to Brooks Laich and Matt Bradley? They are both not on this list, never will and never could.

PlayerGPP/GP+/-
Alex Ovechkin11521.1182
Nicklas Backstrom9560.97119
Alexander Semin4170.9367
Evgeny Kuznetsov4790.8161
T.J. Oshie3600.7155
Marcus Johansson5010.5822
Jakub Vrana2450.5427
Troy Brouwer2930.52-15
Chris Clark2400.51-8
Mike Knuble2200.518
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

searle

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Skrudland2Lomakin

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Alex Semin and Evgeny Kuznetsov are both amazing players, ones of very few best players who ever played for Caps. You know what is common to Brooks Laich and Matt Bradley? They are both not on this list, never will and never could.

PlayerGPP/GP+/-
Alex Ovechkin11521.1182
Nicklas Backstrom9560.97119
Alexander Semin4170.9367
Evgeny Kuznetsov4790.8161
T.J. Oshie3600.7155
Marcus Johansson5010.5822
Jakub Vrana2450.5427
Troy Brouwer2930.52-15
Chris Clark2400.51-8
Mike Knuble2200.518
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Are we really retconning the Semin thing now? Are we really going to sit here and act like he was not a world class talent with a terrible work ethic?


I don't really see the relevance of Matt Bradley being a 4th liner to his ability to recognize that a guy he shared a locker room with for 6 years was lazy and unmotivated. Bradley clearly wasn't bitter towards the top 6 players, he went out of his way to go and praise Ovechkin (a player who was accused of the same Semin type behavior at that time) in that same interview. Matt Bradley also, just maybe, is a decent surveyor of hockey ability... I mean, he's literally a scout of our team now. Also if there is a guy we've ever had who knew what it looked like to play balls to the wall every minute he was on the ice it was Matt "Sure I'll go get my ass kicked in a fight for the team" Bradley. The guy was an absolute warrior despite being out of his depth in every conceivable hockey element.



It bears mentioning that the "lazy Semin" narrative was not a North American or even Capitals centric creation. He had this reputation in Russia too:
But Semin's critics aren't just found in North America. Matsegora noted in his AllHockey.ru piece that "Overseas, they rightly believe that he is too weak-willed a player who often loses the motivation to play. And he loses it at the most inopportune moments." Matsegora added that former Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau regularly tried to motivate Semin, only to have the winger "shrink from criticism on the bench, so (Boudreau) had to leave without having achieved from Semin at least some noticeable fire in his eyes." Boudreau often spoke of Semin's potential, believing the young winger had more promise than even Alex Ovechkin.

Matsegora also referred to Semin's "lack of discipline on the ice," especially his habit of going for a change at the wrong times, and that he is "quite weak in defense. Yes, Semin can backcheck, but his efficiency drops significantly immediately." As evidence, Matsegora points to Semin's declining production over the last two years while Boudreau and Dale Hunter tried to install more of a defensive oriented system. "In other words, the price for his defensive performance is his attacking ability," Matsegora wrote.



After Semin left Washington he had stints with both Montreal and Carolina, in both runs he was benched for (and stop me if you've heard this before) taking lazy penalties at crucial moments and being disengaged despite producing statistically.


I think the President of the Hurricanes put it pretty succinctly:

"[Semin] didn’t buy into the culture that our coach [Bill Peters] was trying to get in the locker room. When you go to practice and you have 22 guys doing things the way the coach wants and one who doesn’t, it usually doesn’t end well. ... In simple terms, we paid him $14 million to go away."




But again, I'm sure the GMs of three NHL teams and countless teammates all got it wrong because he actually had a great Corsi so he clearly is a GOAT player.
 
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brachyrynchos

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What are some of the free agent goalies or trade candidates that we could realistically be looking at to pair with Samsonov? I feel like the goalie position is the biggest unknown going forward team personnel-wise.
Thomas Greiss (34) is unrestricted, he's done well with the Isles but with Sorokin expected to come over and their cap problems he most likely won't be back. Greiss is coming off a 3yr/$10M deal.
Rangers have been rumored to be looking to move Georgiev, I think they're looking for some blueline help and centers. Besides being a metro rival I'm not sure if there's a trade to be made.
 
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