Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019-20 Season Pt. 1: Drop. The. Puck.

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maacoshark

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All we can do is hope, especially that he's not a lame duck UFA signing. The good news is the team barely notices him or his time out. He has the resume to pick his game up though. Just realized I typed rolls rather than roles. Silly iPad.
What resume? He had 22 goals and 44 points one season with Hawks playing on a good team with good talent around him. Other than that season his numbers are fairly average. There is nothing about his game that WOWS anyone. I'm trying to think what his role here is supposed to be.
 

hb12xchamps

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What resume? He had 22 goals and 44 points one season with Hawks playing on a good team with good talent around him. Other than that season his numbers are fairly average. There is nothing about his game that WOWS anyone. I'm trying to think what his role here is supposed to be.
And what are the Caps? A good team with good talent around him. Let the guy get acclimated to Washington and give him a chance
 
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um

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What resume? He had 22 goals and 44 points one season with Hawks playing on a good team with good talent around him. Other than that season his numbers are fairly average. There is nothing about his game that WOWS anyone. I'm trying to think what his role here is supposed to be.

sounds like a third liner.
 

tenken00

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Jan 29, 2010
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If the Caps had only played bad teams and at home so far and held their current record, it would be impressive. Being able to play consistently well is hard. Its true that is a question mark, however.

The Caps having to win on the road a lot recently is certainly an emphasis, but the Islanders also have had a very tough schedule based on SOS wise so far.

But its wayyyyy to early to make any judgement. Its just interesting to look at during downtime at work on a Wednesday.

NHL Relative Power Index - 2019-2020 - National Hockey League - ESPN

Strength of Schedule:

1) COL - .597
2) WAS - .596

3) NYI - .589
Tied 4) ARI - .588
Tied 4) TBL - .588
6) DET - .585
7) NJD - .584
8) FLA - .583
9) NYR - .580
tied 10) DAL - .578
tied 10) CLB - .578

The gap in SOS between the Avs + Caps and the 3rd highest team (Isles) is pretty significant.

Others of interest to the Caps:

Boston had a .566 SOS
Pittsburgh had a .571 SOS
Carolina had a .558 SOS
Toronto had a .562 SOS

But like I said its wayyyy too early, and this will definitely start to shake up as the year goes on with the pretenders and contenders moving in opposite directions.
 
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txpd

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The Caps having to win on the road a lot recently is certainly an emphasis, but the Islanders also have had a very tough schedule based on SOS wise so far.

But its wayyyyy to early to make any judgement. Its just interesting to look at during downtime at work on a Wednesday.

NHL Relative Power Index - 2019-2020 - National Hockey League - ESPN

Strength of Schedule:

1) COL - .597
2) WAS - .596

3) NYI - .589
Tied 4) ARI - .588
Tied 4) TBL - .588
6) DET - .585
7) NJD - .584
8) FLA - .583
9) NYR - .580
tied 10) DAL - .578
tied 10) CLB - .578

The gap in SOS between the Avs + Caps and the 3rd highest team (Isles) is pretty significant.

Others of interest to the Caps:

Boston had a .566 SOS
Pittsburgh had a .571 SOS
Carolina had a .558 SOS
Toronto had a .562 SOS

But like I said its wayyyy too early, and this will definitely start to shake up as the year goes on with the pretenders and contenders moving in opposite directions.

I am not judging anything. The comment was made the Islanders hadn't played any good teams(clearly mistaken). I just said that playing consistently well whether against good or bad competition is impressive.
 

tenken00

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Jan 29, 2010
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I am not judging anything. The comment was made the Islanders hadn't played any good teams(clearly mistaken). I just said that playing consistently well whether against good or bad competition is impressive.

Oh I know, txpd. The judging part was more about judging what I posted, not about what you said earlier.

Meaning, SOS in the beginning of the year means jack doo doo. Some of these SOS are inflated and deflated due to some teams' record (and their opponents' record) not being truly indicative of what type of team they are. Small sample size and stuff ya know.
 

txpd

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New Bern, NC
Oh I know, txpd. The judging part was more about judging what I posted, not about what you said earlier.

Meaning, SOS in the beginning of the year means jack doo doo. Some of these SOS are inflated and deflated due to some teams' record (and their opponents' record) not being truly indicative of what type of team they are. Small sample size and stuff ya know.

Does strenth of schedule take into account back to backs and 3 games in 4 nights and 4 games in 6 nights? Does it reflect road games and time zone travel and so forth?

For me the Caps having to stuff so many games into October with a west coast road trip and doing that well, is the impressive part. No matter how good they competition is.

Remember that at present the Caps have held a 3rd period lead in every game but one.
 

Calicaps

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The Caps having to win on the road a lot recently is certainly an emphasis, but the Islanders also have had a very tough schedule based on SOS wise so far.

But its wayyyyy to early to make any judgement. Its just interesting to look at during downtime at work on a Wednesday.

NHL Relative Power Index - 2019-2020 - National Hockey League - ESPN

Strength of Schedule:

1) COL - .597
2) WAS - .596

3) NYI - .589
Tied 4) ARI - .588
Tied 4) TBL - .588
6) DET - .585
7) NJD - .584
8) FLA - .583
9) NYR - .580
tied 10) DAL - .578
tied 10) CLB - .578

The gap in SOS between the Avs + Caps and the 3rd highest team (Isles) is pretty significant.

Others of interest to the Caps:

Boston had a .566 SOS
Pittsburgh had a .571 SOS
Carolina had a .558 SOS
Toronto had a .562 SOS

But like I said its wayyyy too early, and this will definitely start to shake up as the year goes on with the pretenders and contenders moving in opposite directions.
That's interesting. I just looked at who they've beaten this year and most of them were nonplayoff teams as of yesterday. Not all, as I noted earlier, but most, and of the nonplayoff teams they've beaten, several were terribad. But winning 10 in a row is winning all the same. Will be interesting to see if they can keep playing at a high level.
 

tenken00

Oh it's going down in Chinatown
Jan 29, 2010
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That's interesting. I just looked at who they've beaten this year and most of them were nonplayoff teams as of yesterday. Not all, as I noted earlier, but most, and of the nonplayoff teams they've beaten, several were terribad. But winning 10 in a row is winning all the same. Will be interesting to see if they can keep playing at a high level.

I think that what they have in Trotz and his system and their belief in it is good enough to do extraordinarily well during the season. But (and I'm sure they acknowledge it as well), thats a pretty tough way to go through the playoffs without a herculean effort by their goalie. I'm sure Varly or maybe possibly Greiss has it in him to go on a Cup hero run, but with everything tightening up so much in the postseason, that's a big ask. Points are at such a premium in the postseason.

I actually wouldn't mind the Isles taking the President's Trophy in the regular season though. Let them have it! ;););) Or anyone! Boston?! Keep it away!!!
 
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Ridley Simon

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Feb 27, 2002
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I think that what they have in Trotz and his system and their belief in it is good enough to do extraordinarily well during the season. But (and I'm sure they acknowledge it as well), thats a pretty tough way to go through the playoffs without a herculean effort by their goalie. I'm sure Varly or maybe possibly Greiss has it in him to go on a Cup hero run, but with everything tightening up so much in the postseason, that's a big ask. Points are at such a premium in the postseason.

I actually wouldn't mind the Isles taking the President's Trophy in the regular season though. Let them have it! ;););) Or anyone! Boston?! Keep it away!!!

I candidly feel the opposite. I’d like to see a truly dominant run. Take the Metro (again), the Prez Cup (again), and then the Stanley Cup (again).

I believe the last time a Prez Cup team won the Cup was Chicago back in early 10’s (maybe 2012?), and I also believe they had already won a recent Cup. That’s the formula. Many Prez Cup winners hadn’t won jack before winning their Prez Cup. So didn’t have the stones
 
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twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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+/- also includes empty net situations at the end of games, which hurts better offensive players and helps defensive players because of empty net goals for and against. I don't think Ovie should be punished with a -1 for being on the ice at the end of the game trying to tie the game when an ENG is scored against him, for instance.

5v5 goal differential is slightly better than +/- but it's still bad because it has little predictive power. The benefit of looking at shot attempts and expected goals is that they are better predictors of future success than goal differential. You still need to contextualize everything but all else being equal I'd much rather have someone with a good xGF% than someone with a good GF%.
 

Silky mitts

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So, high danger chances against is....?
Upper 1/3 of scoring chances per here
Advanced Hockey Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey seem to assign a goal share for attempts based on distance from goal and other factors which is where the expected goals come from. I don’t see how any of this is knowable, like how do you determine the value of an Ovechkin PP one timer other than looking at how many become goals over a period of time, but I think any other player would have the expected goal share with the same opportunity, but with Ovy it’s a much more dangerous play.
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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Upper 1/3 of scoring chances per here
Advanced Hockey Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey seem to assign a goal share for attempts based on distance from goal and other factors which is where the expected goals come from. I don’t see how any of this is knowable, like how do you determine the value of an Ovechkin PP one timer other than looking at how many become goals over a period of time, but I think any other player would have the expected goal share with the same opportunity, but with Ovy it’s a much more dangerous play.

having a lot of high danger chances against would be bad?
 

Sam Spade

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May 4, 2009
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I candidly feel the opposite. I’d like to see a truly dominant run. Take the Metro (again), the Prez Cup (again), and then the Stanley Cup (again).

I believe the last time a Prez Cup team won the Cup was Chicago back in early 10’s (maybe 2012?), and I also believe they had already won a recent Cup. That’s the formula. Many Prez Cup winners hadn’t won jack before winning their Prez Cup. So didn’t have the stones

Hawks did win the Cup in 2013 and the Pres Trophy in a shortened 48 game season.

Last 20 years only four teams have won both. I’ll pass.

You don’t even want to look at Pres Trophy winners and first/second round exits. It’s not pretty.
 
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