Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 5

[Sam Spade]

Samsonov wasn't BPA. We passed on Boeser, Konecny, Beauvillier and (Carolina) Aho.

That being said, we're eliminating a future need for top notch goaltending. You don't know if Holtby won't have a sudden decline or if he prices himself out of Washington.

Only Aho, because he sometimes plays center, would be a regret, the rest nope. Samsanov was the right choice, I only wish he had more time with Korn.

 

[trick9]

Easy to say afterwards... Most people at the time of the draft actually said that Sebastian Aho was a big reach in the 2nd round. Obviously looking back it's silly but Button ranked him 50th, Bob McKenzie had him as honorable mention in his top-75 and Future Considerations ranked him as low as 110th. Corey Pronman did have him @ 28.

Looking back, getting him or Boeser would have been nice but i have no problems with them taking their BPA. I think our scouting staff is one of the better ones in the league and maybe if things are differently, we don't steal Carlson or Kuznetsov on their draft years, either.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Only Aho, because he sometimes plays center, would be a regret, the rest nope. Samsanov was the right choice, I only wish he had more time with Korn.

Boeser is better than any winger on our team that isn't named Ovechkin or Oshie. He was almost a PPG player last season and is off to a solid start this season again.

 

[txpd]

Orpik is the best the Caps have at what he does. None of Djoos, Bowey or Siegenthaler will replace that.

When he is ready, he will need to play to get his game back after missing so many and rehabbing a wheel.

Lastly, you have to know that an veteran leader in the locker room and on the bench and on the ice losses much of his cred standing behind the bench in a suit.

 

[Sam Spade]

Boeser is better than any winger on our team that isn't named Ovechkin or Oshie. He was almost a PPG player last season and is off to a solid start this season again.

He played 62 games last season and 55 points isn't that close. He also is heavily sheltered. I may end up wrong but I'd have still taken Samsanov.

 

[txpd]

Boeser is better than any winger on our team that isn't named Ovechkin or Oshie. He was almost a PPG player last season and is off to a solid start this season again.

Wilson. Is Boeser really better than Vrana? Boeser looks like he misses a lot of games.

 

[um]

Man you guys don't like Boeser, dude is legit.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

He played 62 games last season and 55 points isn't that close. He also is heavily sheltered. I may end up wrong but I'd have still taken Samsanov.

I don't care if minutes were sheltered or not, this kid has a devastating shot and 7 points below PPG is what I'd call close, comes out to 72 points in a full season.

This kid is out there dominating with Pettersson while we're watching Burakovsky struggle to score 25 points.

Goalies come and go. Our biggest rivals drafted a goalie in the 3rd round and he won 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie and replaced Fleury after 13 years in Pittsburgh.

I know Samsonov is likely the best goaltender prospect right now in the NHL but goalies are a crapshoot.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Wilson. Is Boeser really better than Vrana? Boeser looks like he misses a lot of games.

Boeser scores 30 goals in 60 games, tell me how Vrana is better than that.

 

[kicksavedave]

Boeser scores 30 goals in 60 games, tell me how Vrana is better than that.

Couldn't think of anything witty so, just this:

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Couldn't think of anything witty so, just this:

Is Vrana better than McDavid or any other player that hasn't won the Cup?

 

[Sam Spade]

I don't care if minutes were sheltered or not, this kid has a devastating shot and 7 points below PPG is what I'd call close, comes out to 72 points in a full season.

This kid is out there dominating with Pettersson while we're watching Burakovsky struggle to score 25 points.

Goalies come and go. Our biggest rivals drafted a goalie in the 3rd round and he won 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie and replaced Fleury after 13 years in Pittsburgh.

I know Samsonov is likely the best goaltender prospect right now in the NHL but goalies are a crapshoot.

Well if we are talking Boeser for Burakovsky, for sure. If we are talking Samsonov for Boeser, nope.

Boeser scores 30 goals in 60 games, tell me how Vrana is better than that.

Because we don't know who it will play out.

Oh and right now, today, Boeser and Vrana have the same amount of goals.

 

[txpd]

Boeser scores 30 goals in 60 games, tell me how Vrana is better than that.

Don't they have about the same number of points this season?

 

[um]

Don't they have about the same number of points this season?

are you messing with us?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Samsonov wasn't BPA. We passed on Boeser, Konecny, Beauvillier and (Carolina) Aho.

That being said, we're eliminating a future need for top notch goaltending. You don't know if Holtby won't have a sudden decline or if he prices himself out of Washington.

You speak as if you had a copy of the Caps draft board. You know he’s wasn’t BPA on their draft board how?

 

[895]

We won't know for a while if Samsonov over Boeser was the right choice but right now in 2018, on probability, we should've taken Boeser.

Proven 30 goal scorer>potential starter.

 

[txpd]

are you messing with us?

I checked. Vrana has 18pts, 17 even strength. Boeser has 17 with 13evp. Am I wrong or isn't Vrana on pace for 60ish points?
Are we sure we would rather have Boeser than Vrana? They are about the same age. One guy is getting all the prime ice time on a bad team, while the other guy is getting secondary ice time on a stacked team that has expectations.

Boeser's mistakes are expected and Vrana's get him scratched. I am not at all sure I would trade them even up.

 

[Hivemind]

Armed with the information available today, picking Samsonov over Boeser at this point is absurd.
Armed with the information available at draft day, it's more debatable. Samsonov was the consensus top goaltender in the draft, but Boeser was also highly rated. The Capitals scouts obviously preferred Samsonov.
Only time will tell the long term results of the two.

That being said, Samsonov is certainly in the top group of goalie prospects right now, but I don't think he's the consensus #1. I don't think there really is a consensus #1 at all right now. Samsonov, Shetsyorkin, Sorokin, and Hart all have their supporters and reason to believe they're the best G prospect in the world (and Demko or Saros aren't terribly far behind).

 

[Ridley Simon]

I checked. Vrana has 18pts, 17 even strength. Boeser has 17 with 13evp. Am I wrong or isn't Vrana on pace for 60ish points?
Are we sure we would rather have Boeser than Vrana? They are about the same age. One guy is getting all the prime ice time on a bad team, while the other guy is getting secondary ice time on a stacked team that has expectations.

Boeser's mistakes are expected and Vrana's get him scratched. I am not at all sure I would trade them even up.

Boeser has only played 20 games due to injury. Versus 30 for Vrana. For the stats you quoted.

I like Vrana and I agree with a lot of your comments. But we need to put the stats in true context.

 

[usiel]

Goalies take the longest development-wise so comparing one to a winger's dev. is pretty ridiculous.

 

[txpd]

Boeser has only played 20 games due to injury. Versus 30 for Vrana. For the stats you quoted.

I like Vrana and I agree with a lot of your comments. But we need to put the stats in true context.

I am aware of that. He only played 60 games last season for injury as well. Another reason to question which one.

Ovechkin has more career points that Crosby. This has always been because he missed a lot more games. For me that factors in. The most goals wins the trophy. Not the most goals per game played. Every game you don't play is a zero on your score sheet.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

RE: Samsonov

The nature of development between skaters and goalies is so fundamentally different that there will inherently always be a period of a few years following a draft where people are able to point to more productive draft picks that went later than the G. I mean a top talent skater needs max 2 years to adjust and make an impact in the NHL. They're front loaded in terms of contributions. An elite G can take easily 4-5 years before he is proper NHL ready. We drafted Holtby in 2008 and he wasn't a regular NHL G until 2012, in that 4 year stint he bounced from ECHL, to AHL, to NHL and back around. His development is remarkably typical.

So again, I think it's easy to look at guys in the immediate years and have buyers remorse, the true measure is about 10 years after the fact.


Also an elite G is far more rare than at true top 6 forward. So we can sit here all day and talk about Boeser, but at the end of the day even if he maximizes his talent there will always be 10-15 other players in the league comparable or better. An elite G? i mean at that point we're talking about guys you can only count on one hand. I will always defer to the idea that a 1st round G talent is more valuable than 90% of the skaters taken. In the last 18 years only 27 G's have been drafted in the first round (and most of those were front loaded to the early 2000s, the rarity of these guys is unparalleled. A true round 1 G talent basically comes around every 5 years. A guy like Boeser is available in every draft and sometimes in multiples.


I would say the only valid argument I can think of for taking Boeser over Samsonov is that he answers the Burakovsky issue. Boeser makes Bura even more expendable, having the roster we have now + Boeser doesn't make a ton of sense because then we develop redundancies.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

As I recall, the pining was for Konecny and Markley over Samsonov (I HATED the pick, BTW).

Aho is clearly looking like the guy that should have been the pick.

As for Vrana (another pick I hated given the disparity at wing vs. center), I wanted Fabbri, who has similar production at this point, but Larkin and Pasternak are the two big misses there..

 

[Corby78]

Armed with the information available today, picking Samsonov over Boeser at this point is absurd.
Armed with the information available at draft day, it's more debatable. Samsonov was the consensus top goaltender in the draft, but Boeser was also highly rated. The Capitals scouts obviously preferred Samsonov.
Only time will tell the long term results of the two.

That being said, Samsonov is certainly in the top group of goalie prospects right now, but I don't think he's the consensus #1. I don't think there really is a consensus #1 at all right now. Samsonov, Shetsyorkin, Sorokin, and Hart all have their supporters and reason to believe they're the best G prospect in the world (and Demko or Saros aren't terribly far behind).

I look at NHL drafting like this; Quality goalies and defenseman are harder to come by. Yes drafting BPO is the way to go since they will almost always need a couple years to develop. But if you have two guys rated closely together, go with the D or G. If Boeser and Samsonov both develop on the same level, Samsonov will have the higher trade value if we need to unload him.

 

[Corby78]

As I recall, the pining was for Konecny and Markley over Samsonov (I HATED the pick, BTW).

Aho is clearly looking like the guy that should have been the pick.

As for Vrana (another pick I hated given the disparity at wing vs. center), I wanted Fabbri, who has similar production at this point, but Larkin and Pasternak are the two big misses there..

Fabbri has also become an injury prone player. I love him when he is on the ice, but he has missed a lot of time over the last couple years.