Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 4

[Holtbyisms]

If you read through the tweets on that someone translated the text to say “I’ve played enough”

1) don’t know if that’s a true translation or not and 2) that doesn’t sound so promising and I’m hoping he isn’t jumping back to Russia

My phone translated it to "was playing".

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Sam Spade]

We are missing Beagle in the face off circle.

How can we possibly know that yet?

 

[shtorm2005]

I think face offs are overrated.

3-4 goals today were scored right after faceoff.

 

[895]

I think Burakovsky needs a trade.

 

[txpd]

How can we possibly know that yet?

60% on faceoffs. Right handed. Excellent ok. You can't really replace that. Not with Dowd for sure

 

[Portable Mink]

I think DSP needs a chaos centre. Walker makes stuff happen that is chaotic, Dowd is quite 'normal'. Hes been decent but Beagle with his drawns, dumps, chases and pressure created more chaos that Dowd can. Boyd might be that player a bit more?

I like the Bennett for Bura suggestion.... A young Brian Boyle would be perfect. Rate his game.

 

[maacoshark]

How can we possibly know that yet?

Do you think we have any near as good as Beagle on faceoffs. He is one of the best in the league.

 

[peterthegreat12]

I think Burakovsky needs a trade.

I second this sentiment. Sometimes a change of scenery does a player good.

 

[Silky mitts]

3-4 goals today were scored right after faceoff.

Definitely bigger on special teams than 5 on 5 but you wouldn’t put a face off specialist on the power play over someone even slightly more skilled so important for penalty kill but I don’t see where it really helps you win anywhere else.

 

[maacoshark]

Definitely bigger on special teams than 5 on 5 but you wouldn’t put a face off specialist on the power play over someone even slightly more skilled so important for penalty kill but I don’t see where it really helps you win anywhere else.

You would put a faceoff specialist on the pp if his name was Bergeron or Toews.

 

[Sam Spade]

Do you think we have any near as good as Beagle on faceoffs. He is one of the best in the league.

Beagle was very good at F/O's, agreed. That is also one of the only things that can be easily taught at the NHL level. Year after year after year some player goes from garbage to great in the dot.

Backstrom and Eller all both over 50% so far, so you spend extra time with Kuzy and when Boyd comes back, if he is in your plans, you work with him over and over until he gets good.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think an under studied stat is the lost faceoff, and a goal against a minute later. Some teams want to counter. Score off of odd mans. Some players dominate in the those situations, and dare I suggest Kuzy is one of those types.

Losing a faceoff will far more often lead to play eventually going the other way, than a quick goal against. What is our scorski rate on counters.

I think previous studies showed that a good vs average faceoff guy only leads to 3 more goals per year. When your worst faceoff guy is a top 10 offensive stud, it can certainly still help to secure a cup. Proof is in the pudding.

 

[Sam Spade]

Bettman won't reduce it and by the time the independent arbitrator gets it and rules Wilson will be 16 games into it anyway.

 

[g00n]

Searching for a link between winning faceoffs and NHL games

Situationally, in the moment, winning a faceoff can be a big play. A few goals off of FOs in one game can seem like proof that they're crucial. But in general they're statistically close to coin flip.

The first part of this wall of text (which cites conflicting studies) seems to echo my comment. The answer is "it depends on the situation":

The Importance Of Faceoffs

 

[maacoshark]

Beagle was very good at F/O's, agreed. That is also one of the only things that can be easily taught at the NHL level. Year after year after year some player goes from garbage to great in the dot.

Backstrom and Eller all both over 50% so far, so you spend extra time with Kuzy and when Boyd comes back, if he is in your plans, you work with him over and over until he gets good.

Backstrom is decent on faceoffs. Eller is less consistent. Kuznetsov is a joke in the dot. Our best faceoff guy might actually be Stephenson but they dont use him much. Right now he us on the Kuzy line. Why wouldnt the use Stephenson over Kuznetsov on draws? Makes no sense.

 

[ovikovy817]

Backstrom is decent on faceoffs. Eller is less consistent. Kuznetsov is a joke in the dot. Our best faceoff guy might actually be Stephenson but they dont use him much. Right now he us on the Kuzy line. Why wouldnt the use Stephenson over Kuznetsov on draws? Makes no sense.

Maybe he'll become better at face offs by taking them. More training for him.

 

[RandyHolt]

Maybe he'll become better at face offs by taking the. More training for him.

Yep, yhey are making Kuz learn feet to the fire.

Or, maybe draws aren't as important as we think.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

#freewillyday

 

[Silky mitts]

You would put a faceoff specialist on the pp if his name was Bergeron or Toews.

Sure but Eller could be a 65% faceoff guy and you wouldn’t play him over Backstrom

 

[Silky mitts]

Searching for a link between winning faceoffs and NHL games

Situationally, in the moment, winning a faceoff can be a big play. A few goals off of FOs in one game can seem like proof that they're crucial. But in general they're statistically close to coin flip.

The first part of this wall of text (which cites conflicting studies) seems to echo my comment. The answer is "it depends on the situation":

The Importance Of Faceoffs

I look at it like the only situation where I’d sacrifice skill, speed, or the ability to enter the zone for faceoffs is the PK since you’re trying to prevent that clean faceoff win, when you talk about those set plays off the faceoff in the offensive zone someone more skilled in front of net helps you more.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Beagle was very good at F/O's, agreed. That is also one of the only things that can be easily taught at the NHL level. Year after year after year some player goes from garbage to great in the dot.

Backstrom and Eller all both over 50% so far, so you spend extra time with Kuzy and when Boyd comes back, if he is in your plans, you work with him over and over until he gets good.

Massively oversimplifying. Not many are great at face offs......saying it can be easily taught....well, agree to disagree.

 

[txpd]

Definitely bigger on special teams than 5 on 5 but you wouldn’t put a face off specialist on the power play over someone even slightly more skilled so important for penalty kill but I don’t see where it really helps you win anywhere else.

you put a faceoff specialist out on the pp. You put one out in the last minute of a period. You put one out for every d zone faceoff in the final 10 minutes with a lead.

Further. There was a reason that Trotz called Beagle his Mr Fix it. There was a reason that he stabilized struggling lines. 5 on 5. Wasn't Carlson's goal last night scored after a FO 5 on 5? Isnt winning defensive zone starts at any time valuable?

 

[maacoshark]

Sure but Eller could be a 65% faceoff guy and you wouldn’t play him over Backstrom

Why mention Eller?

 

[Silky mitts]

you put a faceoff specialist out on the pp. You put one out in the last minute of a period. You put one out for every d zone faceoff in the final 10 minutes with a lead.

Further. There was a reason that Trotz called Beagle his Mr Fix it. There was a reason that he stabilized struggling lines. 5 on 5. Wasn't Carlson's goal last night scored after a FO 5 on 5? Isnt winning defensive zone starts at any time valuable?

You'd like to win faceoffs in either end but Beagle could chip in 20+ points, was very good defensively, and was playing on a discount. If I could magically make Dowd a 25 point guy or a 58% faceoff guy I would make him a 25 point guy just because of how much of a drain Steckel and Richards were offensively. Maybe if Backstrom and Eller are their top faceoff guys they're better off anyway. They've got 3 centers who can carry the puck into the zone I'll take that over being lights out at faceoffs any day.