Player Discussion Caps D over 6 last seasons

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
He’s been good for the vast majority of his ~500 game NHL career. That was my exact point in saying “his postseason wasn’t a flash in the pan like DSP’s last year.”

He had at least the better part of 2 years sucking a lot in his own zone until Nisky showed up and got paired with him In 15-16. That was the turning point.
 
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Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
21,816
14,097
Almost Canada
I think you guys are being a bit crotchety.

I agree the stats don't accurately reflect the awesomeness, but maybe it's not the end of the world to begin the conversation with stats, and then take a look at where the stats are steering the wrong way. Might be interesting.

Stats for defensemen in the NHL have always been problematic in that offensive stats don't necessarily reflect the best players, and defensive stats can also be equally if not even more misleading.
I don't think anyone is saying stats are irrelevant. I think a lot of folks are saying these stats and the way they're being weighted is amateurish and self-evidently biased. It's the kind of crap that gives stats a bad name across disciplines and leads folks to think that "all statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say."
 
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PB12

Registered User
Jul 7, 2015
2,298
1,036
He’s a vocal critic, but it’s never personal in his comments. Honestly, I feel like Orlov should be more offensively than he is. His D had come around to pretty solid, but never stand out to you in a game good (the much too rare explosive hit aside). I will be very interested to see how his pair does this year with him as the lead dog. I’m expecting him to not be able to carry the pair, which will probably be needed somewhat IMO. Hope he proves me wrong or that his partner can rise to the challenge.
This. Orlov, as of right now, is nothing special. He's vanilla ice cream. But now we're in a critical time. We got a new Goaltender coming in a year, and I need Orlov to prove that he is ready to not only protect Samsonov, but also ready to lead a line.
 

francaisvolantsparis

Registered User
Nov 21, 2018
1,540
568
Nice
It took me some time...

I counted the 'Awesomeness 2.0' for first 6 forwards in TOI plus first 4 Defs.

It gives

2007/20082008/20092009/20102010/20112011/20122013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/19
643.5655.1749.5664.6640.9647.3667.4705.7658.5689.7729.4
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
The correlation with Season Total Team Points is 0.632958

I will give here the formula. So anyone can verify these numbers. But right now I am..

giphy.gif


(TOI/GP)*(50*(PenDrawn/5-2*Giveaways/10+RushAt/3+RebCrea/20+Shots/20+Goals+2*FirstAsists/3+SecondAsists/3+IPP/50)+100*(2*Takeaways/5-MinorPens/5+ShotBlock/20)+80*Hits/10+20*MajorPens/4)/(18*2.25)

All stats are per 60 minutes
<------------------------------------------HERE THE FORMULA (It works better than Corsi!)

Ovechkin 'Awesomeness 2.0' evolution over time is amazing.
 
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RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
34,639
6,800
I appreciate OP for spicing up the dog days. Folks getting bent can just ignore the thread, or fix his formula so your eye test best = totally awesome 3.0.

I do like fighting majors factored in. Finally some advanced stats I care about. Any stats I make will include a player being knocked to the ice. A guy that gets knocked down, but registered a goal / assist = bonus points. Call it the Boyd Gordon Effect. He was the last to have repeatedly taken monster hits to make a pass. Too bad he was stuck on 4 and no one would ever finish though. Sorry Boyd, no bonus points. Much like your career.

There should also be flipped the switch stats. Call it: SWAT - stats when actually trying. Our glorious cup year had our advanced stats halfway through the preseason, as the worst. Led by the leagues worst Dman of course, Brooks Orpik.
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,625
14,445
The thing that I appreciate about this thread is that despite the Awesomeness rating not really being a good one IMO is that it’s just as valid as anyone’s eye-test, including mine.

No one here and heck even many scouts/GMs aren’t any good at judging players (especially defensemen) but at least @francaisvolantsparis is trying to build toward some objective measure. No one starts with a good one, it takes work.
 

francaisvolantsparis

Registered User
Nov 21, 2018
1,540
568
Nice
Guys, thank you for your positive or negative replays. Then starting this thread, I never planned to develop a real professional tool (nor I did). My goal was to underline by statistical 'evidence' the contradictions we have then evaluating our D players (only Defs).

My logic was:

1. I am watching a game. Player A is good.
2. I am listening to the coach. Player A did well.
3. Player A has a lot of credit from the stuff. Playing top minutes vs top opposition. Etc.
4. All this is subjective or difficult to measure.
5. I came here to discuss our players performances. And I read "A is bad because he cannot perform a quadruple axel (exaggeration from my part), B is good because he can skate on one leg (exaggeration again)".
6. I think: "OK, I may be wrong on A. I should find out!". And I look to the stats carefully to see 'Is A good or bad?'.
7. More I work with stats more I am convinced: A is an excellent player. I cannot find anything (almost) he is really bad at.
8. I came here again and I open this tread to illustrate my point of view and (hope so) discuss it.

You know the rest of the story.

It is not trolling as someone pointed out. It is not easy to talk stats with passioned (=sometime irrelevant) fans. First formula was not OK for me. I developed The second formula which is (in reality) a better personnel variant for Corsi stat. We count offensive and defensive actions for each player. The sum for all players will result in a 'similar' team Corsi stat. This is why I knew it will be correlating with Team points. Actually, if one does it correctly (with good weights) this stat should work much better than Corsi or +/-.

The constructive point here is that stats (even the awesomeness 2.0) is based on greater amount of relevant information compared to one’s opinion after watching some (many) games. If it does not change your mind, it should? at least make you think "am I correct with my opinions on players?". This thread is about it. Let's imagine we can be wrong! Let's think outside the box.
 
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txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
I will be very interested to see how his pair does this year with him as the lead dog. I’m expecting him to not be able to carry the pair, which will probably be needed somewhat IMO. Hope he proves me wrong or that his partner can rise to the challenge.

I have hopes that Jensen will improve after proper time to get adjusted to Reirden's game. I wonder about Orlov being an actual 2d.
 

Bieronymus Trotz

Registered User
Sep 4, 2017
547
424
Science has told me on numerous occasions to stop doing something that 15 years later told me I should actually be doing every day.
That may be an argument against "science," but it's not an argument for your own judgment being reliable instead. It's more like an argument that you can never actually know anything.
 

Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
18,127
9,067
Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
Why do you think others cannot judge by themselves? Face it you are wrong. Someone who like math has already an opinion. Someone who simply read your posts has a good guess as well.

You should not aggress people but reason logically to persuade someone.

And Hivemind will pull the ignore card on you in 3....2....1....... boom
 
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txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
That may be an argument against "science," but it's not an argument for your own judgment being reliable instead. It's more like an argument that you can never actually know anything.

Well...if finishing too 5 Norris trophy voting 2 straight years isn't evidence of being better. I don't what is.

There is not another caps fan here that saw them play that would suggest Potsy was near the player Nisky has been. I know thar
 
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CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
Guys, thank you for your positive or negative replays. Then starting this thread, I never planned to develop a real professional tool (nor I did). My goal was to underline by statistical 'evidence' the contradictions we have then evaluating our D players (only Defs).

My logic was:

1. I am watching a game. Player A is good.
2. I am listening to the coach. Player A did well.
3. Player A has a lot of credit from the stuff. Playing top minutes vs top opposition. Etc.
4. All this is subjective or difficult to measure.
5. I came here to discuss our players performances. And I read "A is bad because he cannot perform a quadruple axel (exaggeration from my part), B is good because he can skate on one leg (exaggeration again)".
6. I think: "OK, I may be wrong on A. I should find out!". And I look to the stats carefully to see 'Is A good or bad?'.
7. More I work with stats more I am convinced: A is an excellent player. I cannot find anything (almost) he is really bad at.
8. I came here again and I open this tread to illustrate my point of view and (hope so) discuss it.

You know the rest of the story.

It is not trolling as someone pointed out. It is not easy to talk stats with passioned (=sometime irrelevant) fans. First formula was not OK for me. I developed The second formula which is (in reality) a better personnel variant for Corsi stat. We count offensive and defensive actions for each player. The sum for all players will result in a 'similar' team Corsi stat. This is why I knew it will be correlating with Team points. Actually, if one does it correctly (with good weights) this stat should work much better than Corsi or +/-.

The constructive point here is that stats (even the awesomeness 2.0) is based on greater amount of relevant information compared to one’s opinion after watching some (many) games. If it does not change your mind, it should? at least make you think "am I correct with my opinions on players?". This thread is about it. Let's imagine we can be wrong! Let's think outside the box.

I commend you for stepping into the batter’s box. The critics are ready to leap fast around here!
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,134
6,428
Nate Schmidt got nearly zero pp and pk time then was exposed for the expansion draft... and went to Vegas and became #1 in skater minutes played, in all situations, going all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals as a Golden Knight.

A mistake.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
Nate Schmidt got nearly zero pp and pk time then was exposed for the expansion draft... and went to Vegas and became #1 in skater minutes played, in all situations, going all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals as a Golden Knight.

A mistake.

#1 “in Vegas”. 1st place loser.

Nate Schmidt is at best a 3 on a Cup winner today IMO. He can skate the minutes in today’s NHL, but he won’t be near the lead dog for a Champion. Just my opinion.
 
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txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
Nate Schmidt was taking healthy scratches when he was exposed. Are you saying that either Orlov or Schmidt are as good or better than Carlson?
 

kicksavedave

I'm just here for the memes and gifs.
Sponsor
Apr 29, 2009
10,613
13,259
Fallbrook, CA
www.tiasarms.org
Nate Schmidt got nearly zero pp and pk time then was exposed for the expansion draft... and went to Vegas and became #1 in skater minutes played, in all situations, going all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals as a Golden Knight.

A mistake.

You can only claim it was a mistake if you put forward who else instead of NS should have been exposed to protect Schmidt, which you did not do. Otherwise, the Caps had a Stanley Cup winning roster that forced them to expose a good player, and Vegas benefited from that fact. That in no way makes it a mistake, in fact it was the perfect decision by the Caps because it led them to a Stanley Cup.

ImprobableGlumEsok-size_restricted.gif
 

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