Confirmed with Link: Capitals sign Justin Schultz to 2 year deal 4 Mil AAV

[tenken00]

He’s fine as long as he plays less than 10:00 a game alongside a physical dman with OZ starts only.

Less than 10 minutes a game for a $4 mil cap hit.. lol

You are not helping at all BHD. You are here to help, right?

 

[caps4cup]

Would rather have Schmidt and Stetcher than Dillon and Schultz.

I’m more comfortable with both of Dillon and Schultz in the top 4 though versus one of Stecher/Jensen.

 

[BHD]

In all seriousness, he never got back to the level he was at before the injury. If he puts it together in Washington, then the Caps are getting a guy who can play on the second pair (again, complimenting a defensive guy) and second PP. He has good offensive awareness, but his skating isn’t what it used to be. Also, as you might suspect, he gets pushed around.

 

[artilector]

Seems like a pretty bad signing, somewhat mitigated by the short term. Probably doesn't really affect the overall picture too much, just a missed opportunity.

 

[Silky mitts]

I don’t understand why the AAV for 2 years should be cheaper but they were in the ballpark (as always)

Schultz has 3 g 13 a in 20 g vs Caps regular season, 2 g 8 a in 15 games in the playoffs.

 

[Kalopsia]

@HTFN

The Free Agent Frenzy thread is locked so I'll respond here. I wasn't trying to argue Gudas was a good offensive defenseman, I thought that was pretty obvious if you read my last two sentences. My point was to show that using xGF% numbers with and without Johnson to prove Schultz is still a good offensive defenseman is stupid, because I can use the same logic to prove that Gudas is an equally good offensive defenseman, and we know from watching him that Gudas is not an offensive defenseman. What you're saying about those numbers being more about Orlov than Gudas is exactly my point - anyone will look better when placed next to a good puck mover compared to a lead weight like Johnson or Kempny. Those numbers are a piece of the puzzle, but I'm trying to illustrate that looking at them without any additional context will lead you to nonsensical conclusions like Gudas is an offensive defenseman. The context for Schultz is that Penguins fans on every hockey forum I've checked are telling us Schultz is broken and no longer a good PMD, his boxcar stats confirm that he's not generating any offensive production, the advanced stats crowd is saying he's been below replacement level for two years and his contract is inexplicable. With that context, I think it's far more likely that Schultz's good numbers away from Johnson have more to do with Pettersson being a good PMD (and the pairing being heavily sheltered) than Schultz somehow being a good PMD himself without it being evident to the fans, showing up on the scoresheet, or turned up by the advanced stats crowd.

Maybe I used my brain to think about what some of these numbers meant and wound up surprised, instead of coming in with an axe to grind and doubling down.

Maybe you let your desire for optimism blind you into looking at those statistics uncritically and seeing what you wanted to see.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Guess we'll know it's a bad signing or not the first 20-40 games under a new coach, new system, and a contract he will be motivated to prove.

Until then, I'll worry about something else.

 

[Roughing]

I trust BMac and Lavi 100%. I also hate this signing. So, I can only wait and see now. I trust they like the medicals and I trust Lavi thinks it's a good system fit. No problem with term either. The money, though, is horrid.

 

[HTFN]

@HTFN

The Free Agent Frenzy thread is locked so I'll respond here. I wasn't trying to argue Gudas was a good offensive defenseman, I thought that was pretty obvious if you read my last two sentences. My point was to show that using xGF% numbers with and without Johnson to prove Schultz is still a good offensive defenseman is stupid, because I can use the same logic to prove that Gudas is an equally good offensive defenseman, and we know from watching him that Gudas is not an offensive defenseman. What you're saying about those numbers being more about Orlov than Gudas is exactly my point - anyone will look better when placed next to a good puck mover compared to a lead weight like Johnson or Kempny. Those numbers are a piece of the puzzle, but I'm trying to illustrate that looking at them without any additional context will lead you to nonsensical conclusions like Gudas is an offensive defenseman. The context for Schultz is that Penguins fans on every hockey forum I've checked are telling us Schultz is broken and no longer a good PMD, his boxcar stats confirm that he's not generating any offensive production, the advanced stats crowd is saying he's been below replacement level for two years and his contract is inexplicable. With that context, I think it's far more likely that Schultz's good numbers away from Johnson have more to do with Pettersson being a good PMD (and the pairing being heavily sheltered) than Schultz somehow being a good PMD himself without it being evident to the fans, showing up on the scoresheet, or turned up by the advanced stats crowd.



Maybe you let your desire for optimism blind you into looking at those statistics uncritically and seeing what you wanted to see.

Optimism? All I've done is said that I don't like the contract or the player, I've made a point of this at the beginning of nearly every post. See, that's the thing, I didn't start out with a point to prove and then desperately struggle to find the numbers to fit them, I had an open ended question and came out pleasantly surprised by the result because I thought about it for a second and applied context from Penguins fans (Orpik is Done, Niskanen is No Good), plenty of whom said "his numbers away from Johnson are different but he still needs to rebound from injury".

But okay, Kempny=Johnson because you say so. I can't find anything to suggest it, but Kempny has to be bad or your point falls apart so it must be true. Marcus Pettersson? More of a new-school shutdown defender by the way, but that's okay too. He's not a hand-grenade puck handler but his defense is his best asset. You keep bitching at me about context but what f***ing more do you want? All I gave you was additional context. I grabbed the numbers on every pairing he played with this year, including substantial time with known quantity Kris Letang, and every number on the planet indicates that whatever Jack Johnson touches turns to mud. Not by 2-3 percentage points, by a LOT. I listened to other people, I watched them play earlier this year, I've already done all the things you keep accusing me of not doing and didn't actually pull up the numbers until the very end.

Schultz is not great and I am not happy about him being here, but there's reason to believe something is salvageable (not for 4m a year, but hey, too late). I'm done trying to explain that to you because you've either got an axe to grind or just don't know what the hell you're talking about.

EDIT: I guess I'm not quite done, because I just realized that you still can't understand the value of having a breakout capable defenseman on each pairing. Your argument about context seems to be based entirely around the problem that you can't interpret any for yourself. The only one who would have immediately concluded that Radko Gudas is a good offensive defenseman is you.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Optimism? All I've done is said that I don't like the contract or the player, I've made a point of this at the beginning of nearly every post. See, that's the thing, I didn't start out with a point to prove and then desperately struggle to find the numbers to fit them, I had an open ended question and came out pleasantly surprised by the result because I thought about it for a second and applied context from Penguins fans (Orpik is Done, Niskanen is No Good), plenty of whom said "his numbers away from Johnson are different but he still needs to rebound from injury".

But okay, Kempny=Johnson because you say so. I can't find anything to suggest it, but Kempny has to be bad or your point falls apart so it must be true. Marcus Pettersson? More of a new-school shutdown defender by the way, but that's okay too. He's not a hand-grenade puck handler but his defense is his best asset. You keep bitching at me about context but what f***ing more do you want? All I gave you was additional context. I grabbed the numbers on every pairing he played with this year, including substantial time with known quantity Kris Letang, and every number on the planet indicates that whatever Jack Johnson touches turns to mud. Not by 2-3 percentage points, by a LOT. I listened to other people, I watched them play earlier this year, I've already done all the things you keep accusing me of not doing and didn't actually pull up the numbers until the very end.

Schultz is not great and I am not happy about him being here, but there's reason to believe something is salvageable (not for 4m a year, but hey, too late). I'm done trying to explain that to you because you've either got an axe to grind or just don't know what the hell you're talking about.

EDIT: I guess I'm not quite done, because I just realized that you still can't understand the value of having a breakout capable defenseman on each pairing. Your argument about context seems to be based entirely around the problem that you can't interpret any for yourself. The only one who would have immediately concluded that Radko Gudas is a good offensive defenseman is you.

Man, these boards are full of trolls..

 

[RandyHolt]

And we are chock full of RD. Lavi has time to add another today.

 

[HTFN]

Man, these boards are full of trolls..

How is that trolling?

 

[Factorial]

Everything you’ve read from Penguins fans? The most vocal Pens fans on the board blindly defend whatever Rutherford does so I would take whatever they say with a huge grain of salt. Case in point: they traded a good top 6 RW in Hornqvist for a defensemen that is worse than Schultz, with 6 years left and making nearly 5mil per year. He was so bad they moved him to forward. Yet some of their fans will go to the ends of the earth to justify the move, while not being able to look at simple stats with Schultz that paint the obvious picture that he was actually good this year away from Jack Johnson.

They love bashing their players when they’re moved also and then suddenly change tune when they’re brought back or the idea is brought up (Sheary, Rodrigues, Kahun, Hagelin).

Just wait until Schultz is paired with a good defensemen all of next season and they’ll all be bitching again.

You are completely wrong on the views of Pens fans.

1. The Horny trade was not popular. Most hate the remaining term on the returning contract and think JR is losing it

2. Schultz, by any metric, has been bad the last few years and yes, some of it is a result of playing with JMFJ but the injuries have accumulated and it shows on the ice

3. Outside of Sheary, who was bashed before and after he was traded and bashed some more when required at the end of last year, I haven't heard any bashing of the other 3. The Kahun trade for Sheary was very unpopular. Kahun was liked. Rodrigues was re-signed at league minimum and very few are unhappy


.

 

[Ridley Simon]

4m is a lot. I was really surprised.

but in GMBM I trust.

would I be shocked if the Caps won the Cup (or went to the Finals) under Lavy with Schultz playing well?

no, not at all.

 

[Corby78]

4m is a lot. I was really surprised.

but in GMBM I trust.

would I be shocked if the Caps won the Cup (or went to the Finals) under Lavy with Schultz playing well?

no, not at all.

the question is, would you be shocked if we went to the finals with Shultz playing like he has the last two years?

 

[Ridley Simon]

the question is, would you be shocked if we went to the finals with Shultz playing like he has the last two years?

I’d be shocked if they went to the finals if a LOT of Capitals played the way they have the last 2 years. The entire team needs to play to what they are capable of.

 

[Roughing]

I’d be shocked if they went to the finals of a LOT of Capitals played the way they have the last 2 years. The entire teams needs to play to what they are capable of.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’d be shocked if they went to the finals of a LOT of Capitals played the way they have the last 2 years. The entire teams needs to play to what they are capable of.

well played....well played....

 

[tenken00]

I’d be shocked if they went to the finals of a LOT of Capitals played the way they have the last 2 years. The entire teams needs to play to what they are capable of.

The Capitals have to hope that the last 2 years was a result of the coaching and not the players. If that is not the case, we are doomed. Doomed I tell ya.

Edit: actually I don't know if that will matter much for 2020-2021. There is so much turnover in the league right now, and probably with a weird format/shortened season/expanded playoffs. Anything can happen this year. It'll be crazy. Interesting to say the least.

 

[John Price]

 

[John Price]

Also seeing that triggered a flashback. We did have a guy on the Caps named Jeff Schultz not so long ago

 

[tenken00]

Also seeing that triggered a flashback. We did have a guy on the Caps named Jeff Schultz not so long ago

Double nickles. The friendliest 6'6 defender in the league and holder of a season plus 50 +/-

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Pothier reborn?

/cry

 

[DukeDog13]

It's wild how many elite athletes look like they work the customer service desk at Kinkos.

 

[Calicaps]

It's wild how many elite athletes look like they work the customer service desk at Kinkos.

Kinkos... LOL... yer old. (Me too.)