Speculation: Capitals first half of season

[hockeykicker]

halfway through, caps are 1 point back of second place in nhl with a 25-13-3 record and top in metro division

How has this season been to you? exceeding expectations? a disappointment?

Click to read more...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A D really? Revelation must be back.

 

[maacoshark]

I'm going to say a B. We knew this team was going to go through some growing pains, losing a handful of our core and replacing them with some rookies and a couple new minor additions. I thought we would get off to a slow start and eventually turn it around. I never once doubted this team would make the playoffs. I know they still aren't there but they are in decent shape. This team still has room for improvement especially in our end. We aren't the superior team this season like we were the past 2 seasons. I like that. I thought our team coasted down the final stretch the previous 2 seasons. This season it looks like we will have to play hard for the entire season. The team has slightly exceeded my expectations. I didnt think we would be a top the division at this point. Hopefully this team continues to improve.

 

[Corby78]

I gave them an A. Now while they haven't been perfect, nor are they as good as the last two years, I'm judging it against the bar set for them this year. With that, I think Vrana has done well, Djoos and Bowey are ahead of where I thought they would be, Stephenson is a nice surprise, and the young guys have covered the offseason departures faster and better than I expected. Ovie is back, Carlson has stepped up, we have weathered some big injuries (oshie/Niski) and are still sitting in first in the metro.

some negatives; Bura, Kuzy hasn't been as consistent as I would have liked, and both Oshie and Backy have slumped.

 

[ovikovy817]

A-, voted A

 

[notDkristich]

C

Out shot nearly every game
Wildly inconsistent efforts from a large swath of players
No coherent strategy for breakouts or the attack

 

[Hivemind]

Far too many red flags with this team right now. Dead last in shot generation. Second to last in offensive zone faceoffs (ie forcing the opponent to ice the puck or cover in their own zone). Dead last in offensive zone faceoff wins. Sub 50% possession metrics. Even worse possession metrics in Score Close and Score Tied situations. Bottom third of the league in high danger shot attempts. Floundering third defense pairing (and sometimes second pairing). Struggling powerplay in recent months. Practically non-existent 2nd PP unit. 22nd ranked PK unit. Still no perceivable difference in Barry Trotz's transition or neutral zone schemes. Still no perceivable improvements in team speed. Still too reliant on individual efforts from defensemen to create breakouts that can result in controlled entries.

Obviously not everything is terrible. Ovechkin is once again scoring at a 50G pace. Vrana is exceeding expectations. Djoos is exceeding expectations. Wilson has shown flashes of offensive potential. Stephenson has shown he belongs in the NHL. Kuznetsov's offensive numbers are impressive. Eller has turned around a slow start. Connolly is riding a red hot shooting percentage currently (this could also be a red flag, though). DSP and Chiasson can be useful role players.

The best thing the Caps have going for them right now is that it's been a rough year for the rest of the Eastern Conference (save Tampa) as well. They are still in a good standings position as a result. They have plenty of time to correct the flaws in their game. But make no mistake, these flaws need to be corrected.

 

[Grudy0]

C

The most pressing problem for the team is puck possession. In other words, they lose the battles for pucks, and when they have it they tend to lose it relatively quickly. It's getting to the point that when teams force the Caps to play a 200-foot game, the Caps cannot carry the puck out of their own zone well. And I honestly think it has something to do with defensive team philosophy.

If the Caps are able to hold on to pucks for any length of time, they could start being dangerous.

 

[Raikkonen]

This is a solid transition year to prepare young rookies for next coach! Orpik is playing not that bad so he will be tradeable, Ovechkin is having a new life. Caps can be a force once again (for a puncher's chance).

Add some entertainment from our stars - and I give them B. Do I expect 3rd round? Not.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Strong B. They've rebounded mentally much sooner than I expected. I credit veteran leadership and coaching for that honestly.

 

[Hivemind]

Do I expect 3rd round? Not.

Ironically enough, despite my negative view of the team's chances at being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, I think they're better suited for a chance at the 3rd round than they have been in the past few years. Mostly tanks to the fact that the rest of the Metro is mediocre-to-bad. Not a prayer of beating Tampa Bay in the ECF (or if they fall into WC2 and the Altantic half of the bracket), though.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

B. The standings position exceeds expectations obviously but the on-ice play is lacking on too many nights.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is a solid transition year to prepare young rookies for next coach! Orpik is playing not that bad so he will be tradeable, Ovechkin is having a new life. Caps can be a force once again (for a puncher's chance).

Add some entertainment from our stars - and I give them B. Do I expect 3rd round? Not.

As always, I try to maintain the mental position, of "not expected, but you never know"....

 

[Raikkonen]

Ironically enough, despite my negative view of the team's chances at being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, I think they're better suited for a chance at the 3rd round than they have been in the past few years. Mostly tanks to the fact that the rest of the Metro is mediocre-to-bad. Not a prayer of beating Tampa Bay in the ECF (or if they fall into WC2 and the Altantic half of the bracket), though.

I'm not that pessimistic about Tampa. They're our clients. Their goalie is kinda inconsistent. So maybe that's the moment Holtby will show up in the end. Not worrying about them one bit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'll worry about Tampa when we reach the ECF. Not worried either.

 

[twabby]

B.

The results are an A/A- but the underlying trends are worrisome. Hivemind mentioned most of my concerns.

 

[Sam Spade]

Far too many red flags with this team right now. Dead last in shot generation. Second to last in offensive zone faceoffs (ie forcing the opponent to ice the puck or cover in their own zone). Dead last in offensive zone faceoff wins. Sub 50% possession metrics. Even worse possession metrics in Score Close and Score Tied situations. Bottom third of the league in high danger shot attempts. Floundering third defense pairing (and sometimes second pairing). Struggling powerplay in recent months. Practically non-existent 2nd PP unit. 22nd ranked PK unit. Still no perceivable difference in Barry Trotz's transition or neutral zone schemes. Still no perceivable improvements in team speed. Still too reliant on individual efforts from defensemen to create breakouts that can result in controlled entries.

What were all these numbers the last two seasons as the Caps headed into the playoffs as the SC favorites?

 

[Carlzner]

What were all these numbers the last two seasons as the Caps headed into the playoffs as the SC favorites?

IIRC they had meh advanced stats in 15/16 and very good advanced stats in 16/17.

At the end of the day no stat can measure this team more than the fact that they’re the Washington Capitals. The franchise will forever be its own worst enemy.

 

[Langway]

B.

The results are an A/A- but the underlying trends are worrisome. Hivemind mentioned most of my concerns.

Agreed. The end results are strong but a lot of the underlying stuff is indeed worrisome.

It also seems like a lot of the forwards (and lines) aren't very consistent offensively. They're getting enough from a wide range of players, including the fourth line, but the underlying stuff and that inconsistency or flatness make it hard to consider them serious contenders. This formula may work in the regular season but eventually they need to start pivoting more towards crisper, more aggressive and consistently engaged play. When relatively engaged their structure affords them the ability to be a bit funky offensively but it's going to need to tighten up. I'd be more inclined to give an A if 13/92/65 were playing a much more assertive offensive game. Those guys are key for secondary scoring when it matters and I still don't think they've found the right mentality or mix. Wilson's development will help and I like Stephenson's game but I'm still skeptical of the hockey IQ. The East isn't terribly impressive so they may be able to ride the same old approach to the top seed again but I'd hope they're doing a bit more in planning ahead beyond that.

 

[AtNightWeFly]

B.
Good in the standings bad system tho.

 

[Ajax1995]

Far too many red flags with this team right now. Dead last in shot generation. Second to last in offensive zone faceoffs (ie forcing the opponent to ice the puck or cover in their own zone). Dead last in offensive zone faceoff wins. Sub 50% possession metrics. Even worse possession metrics in Score Close and Score Tied situations. Bottom third of the league in high danger shot attempts. Floundering third defense pairing (and sometimes second pairing). Struggling powerplay in recent months. Practically non-existent 2nd PP unit. 22nd ranked PK unit. Still no perceivable difference in Barry Trotz's transition or neutral zone schemes. Still no perceivable improvements in team speed. Still too reliant on individual efforts from defensemen to create breakouts that can result in controlled entries.

Given where they are standings-wise despite all those problems, if they were able to magically turn them all around would we expect 41-0 or just 40-0-1 in the second half...?

 

[Hivemind]

Given where they are standings-wise despite all those problems, if they were able to magically turn them all around would we expect 41-0 or just 40-0-1 in the second half...?

Just remember these four words:
"Regression to the mean"

 

[Ajax1995]

Just remember these four words:
"Regression to the mean"

I hear you and understand it is in the same category as death and taxes...

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'm going to say a B. We knew this team was going to go through some growing pains, losing a handful of our core and replacing them with some rookies and a couple new minor additions. I thought we would get off to a slow start and eventually turn it around. I never once doubted this team would make the playoffs. I know they still aren't there but they are in decent shape. This team still has room for improvement especially in our end. We aren't the superior team this season like we were the past 2 seasons. I like that. I thought our team coasted down the final stretch the previous 2 seasons. This season it looks like we will have to play hard for the entire season. The team has slightly exceeded my expectations. I didnt think we would be a top the division at this point. Hopefully this team continues to improve.

How is all of that a B?

 

[Ridley Simon]

halfway through, caps are 1 point back of second place in nhl with a 25-13-3 record and top in metro division

How has this season been to you? exceeding expectations? a disappointment?

A.

All the doom and gloom of expectations have been met by yet another team that is poised to win the Metro and have a top 2 seed (and possible top 3-4 overall for finish) in the Loffs.

Go back and read what people expected for this team coming into the year. DOOM and GLOOM.

You guys are hilarious.

This is probably a top 5 Caps team ever. It is definitely a top 10. This team has a good a chance as any to make a mark, and it’s got a possibly better landscape, depending on the Pens.

When they are not involved (Pens), Caps have broken thru a few times. Just escape the Pens.