GDT: Capitals at Devils, 7pm est NJD.TV

[devilsblood]

Do you know off-hand what the 5v5 P/60 for Kuok were vs Zacha? I don't feel like doing the math but looking at the raw minutes it hardly looks different. 3 additional points and 48 additional 5v5 minutes....

But you just can't ignore the deployment. When you're playing a significant amount of your additional minutes as a 1st liner and being deployed in the most offensive situation there are with Jack Hughes, 3 additional points is somewhat of a joke regardless of how the percentages breakdown.

1.8 something vs 1.6 something.

It's on naturalstattrick.

But do noted Kuok produced better in tougher minutes with Zajac then he did with Hughes.

 

[devilsblood]

Ruff has said that Zacha will play top 6 wing in games when the team is struggling to score. If you listen to his pressers it sounds like Zacha will play plenty if he is playing well. He has commented tmultiple times that he looks like a different player this year since he was able to train properly this offseason as opposed to last.

Kind of an under the radar storyline too is that Zacha was playing through a knee issue last year that required surgery after the year.

I do like that he battled through that injury, that's important, but if the knee is better and he is in better condition overall that should lead to good thing.

 

[Triumph]

.20 PPG - Josefson
.17 PPG - Boqvist

Yup, nothing alike

Boqvist has been credited with 3 assists over 63 games. He has taken 70 shots 5v5 and scored on 7 of them. There have been 14 5v5 goals scored wth Boqvist on the ice and a total of 262 shots, which means that his linemates are shooting 3.6%. So yeah, this is a totally unsustainable assist rate, and is one of the many reasons why just blindly judging by points and country makes no sense.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

lol just saw this.

RELEVANT!

 

[JimEIV]

Ruff has said that Zacha will play top 6 wing in games when the team is struggling to score. If you listen to his pressers it sounds like Zacha will play plenty if he is playing well. He has commented tmultiple times that he looks like a different player this year since he was able to train properly this offseason as opposed to last.

The idea that we have a solution to score more but we are only going to use it when we need it doesn't make a lot of sense. Does it?

 

[OmNomNom]

lol just saw this.

RELEVANT!

he may not have gotten the announcer job, but maybe he can take over their AV

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

The idea that we have a solution to score more but we are only going to use it when we need it doesn't make a lot of sense. Does it?

i don’t know if it makes sense but it’s pretty common to see around the league.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

The idea that we have a solution to score more but we are only going to use it when we need it doesn't make a lot of sense. Does it?

The problem is they did not get a 3C during the offseason. If you listen to Ruff and Fitz it seems clear they view Mikey as an energy C type, not someone to play with skill players. Coming into camp for 3C were Zacha, an unproven JBoq, and a rookie in Mercer. What choice did they have given they did not get a 3C in the off season?

FWIW, my interpretation of what Ruff said early in camp was that he viewed Zacha as his 3rd best skill C and one of his 4 best scoring W's. Does not sound like a player that will be wanting for playing time if he plays well.

 

[Buck Dancer]

With such a glaring need for a 3rd line center, especially knowing Zacha isn’t a valid option when we all know he’s a much better fit on the wing is somewhat confusing.

I do understand that centers we slim pickings on July 1st but a trade could’ve been done to cement a major weakness we have entering the 2021-22 season. If Dawson Mercer is the answer and he looks like he’s about to earn that spot with his play so far, then it’s not that big of an issue.

I just hope Mercer will be able to play the way he’s been playing for a full calendar year. Worst case scenario, if we’re a bubble team, we can probably get one at the deadline and slide Mercer on the wing.

 

[Triumph]

With such a glaring need for a 3rd line center, especially knowing Zacha isn’t a valid option when we all know he’s a much better fit on the wing is somewhat confusing.

I do understand that centers we slim pickings on July 1st but a trade could’ve been done to cement a major weakness we have entering the 2021-22 season. If Dawson Mercer is the answer and he looks like he’s about to earn that spot with his play so far, then it’s not that big of an issue.

I just hope Mercer will be able to play the way he’s been playing for a full calendar year. Worst case scenario, if we’re a bubble team, we can probably get one at the deadline and slide Mercer on the wing.

If you think centers were slim picking on July 1, you should see how many centers moved in trades this offseason. Cody Glass and Nolan Patrick were traded for one another. Jared McCann was traded ahead of expansion was but selected anyway. Jason Dickinson takes a lot of faceoffs but I'm not sure how much center he actually plays, either way it's not clear he's better than McLeod. Christian Dvorak is the one guy you can point to who was moved, but for a rather high price.

With where the Devils are at, trading futures for a center just doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[Guttersniped]

I believe it was in 2016 that the Avalanches went 6-0 in the preseason and then ended up having a historically bad season (22-56-4). Actually historically the pre-season winner doesn't tend to do particularly well in regular season.

I don’t know if I buy that winning in the pre-season is historically bad for teams either, a pre-season record likely isn’t that meaningful. It’s like saying winning the President’s Trophy is bad for your playoff chances, it’s not, it just that having the best record in the NHL guarantees f*** all in the NHL.

Yes, of course I looked up the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. A big problem was Varlamov went 6-17-0 before getting hip surgery in late January for what was thought to be a groin injury.

Varlamov did win 1-3 against LA in the pre-season, Jeff Zatkoff (who ever that is) gave up 3 goals in the 1st period before being replaced by Jack Campbell in goal.

Varlamov also beat Minnesota 2-0 in his other win, in a game that Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon didn’t play in.

They beat Dallas 1-0 and 4-2 too but the Stars were heading to their own implosion that season due to terrible goaltending plus the loss of several key defensemen.

The Avs had started the pre-season with 4-1 with a win against Wild and ended it with a 2-1 OT win against the Kings. I don’t think this points to performing well in the pre-season as a predictor of anything, these are scrimmages that coaches use to learn about players to make line-up decisions. These are incomplete line-ups often with a variety of goalies.

I suppose theoretically that coaches of bad teams might put more effort into winning in the pre-season, as a confidence booster. Plus they might tend to play all their young players more, while more veteran teams play veteran stars much less in the pre-season. I don’t know to what degree this is actually true and effects pre-season results.

We actually have had some predictive pre-seasons: we won our first three games in 2012-13, but the 3rd W was in OT, and then the last three games were a OT loss, SO loss and a final OT loss. Sure it was missing a regulation loss to really capture what was coming but not winning in extra time pretty much became our MO at that point.

We went 4-2 in 2013-14, only losing to the NYI and Montreal, which makes sense because the the Isles would finish with 5th worst record in the NHL. Brodeur lost both games.

We went 4-1-1 in the 2014-15 pre-season. We beat the NYR twice, including a 0-3 win, while losing to the Flyers 0-4, and then went 1-3 against the NYR and 3-1 against the Flyers that season. The pre-season games don’t even tell you much of anything about how the games against these specific teams will go. (We did win and lose in the SO in two pre-season games against the NYI though and then they were the only team we had two OT losses to.)

We weren’t good in 2015-16 pre-season, going 3-4, and we really stunk up the 2016-17 preseason, going 3-5.

And when we did a lot better in 2017-18, going 5-1-1, we actually did go on to have a much better season, with a more productive offense and other pleasantries.

And then going 2-2-2 in the 2018-19 pre-season, with the last win coming in OT against SC Bern, might have been a sign of the coming regression. Or just nothing.

We went 5-2 in the 2019-20 pre-season, with Cormier and Blackwood having the two losses. Senn won one, Blackwood won one and Schneider won three. Corey then infamously imploded against Winnipeg in the game opener. He did seem like a functional NHL goalie in the pre-season and then very much wasn’t until about February that season but Shero shouldn’t bet on what was the goalie version of fool’s gold at that point.

There are no generic pre-seasons and the winning doesn’t worry me. Right now there are things to really like about this pre-season, particularly with the offense, without putting much emphasis on the record itself. The fact that 5 of the goals we gave up have been on special teams (4PP & 1SH) is not surprising at all and is also concerning but I’m bracing for the PK to be a grisly work in progress.

 

[Buck Dancer]

I don’t know if I buy that winning in the pre-season is historically bad for teams either, a pre-season record likely isn’t that meaningful. It’s like saying winning the President’s Trophy is bad for your playoff chances, it’s not, it just that having the best record in the NHL guarantees f*** all in the NHL.

Yes, of course I looked up the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. A big problem was Varlamov went 6-17-0 before getting hip surgery in late January for what was thought to be a groin injury.

Varlamov did win 1-3 against LA in the pre-season, Jeff Zatkoff (who ever that is) gave up 3 goals in the 1st period before being replaced by Jack Campbell in goal.

Varlamov also beat Minnesota 2-0 in his other win, in a game that Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon didn’t play in.

They beat Dallas 1-0 and 4-2 too but the Stars were heading to their own implosion that season due to terrible goaltending plus the loss of several key defensemen.

The Avs had started the pre-season with 4-1 with a win against Wild and ended it with a 2-1 OT win against the Kings. I don’t think this points to performing well in the pre-season as a predictor of anything, these are scrimmages that coaches use to learn about players to make line-up decisions. These are incomplete line-ups often with a variety of goalies.

I suppose theoretically that coaches of bad teams might put more effort into winning in the pre-season, as a confidence booster. Plus they might tend to play all their young players more, while more veteran teams play veteran stars much less in the pre-season. I don’t know to what degree this is actually true and effects pre-season results.

We actually have had some predictive pre-seasons: we won our first three games in 2012-13, but the 3rd W was in OT, and then the last three games were a OT loss, SO loss and a final OT loss. Sure it was missing a regulation loss to really capture what was coming but not winning in extra time pretty much became our MO at that point.

We went 4-2 in 2013-14, only losing to the NYI and Montreal, which makes sense because the the Isles would finish with 5th worst record in the NHL. Brodeur lost both games.

We went 4-1-1 in the 2014-15 pre-season. We beat the NYR twice, including a 0-3 win, while losing to the Flyers 0-4, and then went 1-3 against the NYR and 3-1 against the Flyers that season. The pre-season games don’t even tell you much of anything about how the games against these specific teams will go. (We did win and lose in the SO in two pre-season games against the NYI though and then they were the only team we had two OT losses to.)

We weren’t good in 2015-16 pre-season, going 3-4, and we really stunk up the 2016-17 preseason, going 3-5.

And when we did a lot better in 2017-18, going 5-1-1, we actually did go on to have a much better season, with a more productive offense and other pleasantries.

And then going 2-2-2 in the 2018-19 pre-season, with the last win coming in OT against SC Bern, might have been a sign of the coming regression. Or just nothing.

We went 5-2 in the 2019-20 pre-season, with Cormier and Blackwood having the two losses. Senn won one, Blackwood won one and Schneider won three. Corey then infamously imploded against Winnipeg in the game opener. He did seem like a functional NHL goalie in the pre-season and then very much wasn’t until about February that season but Shero shouldn’t bet on what was the goalie version of fool’s gold at that point.

There are no generic pre-seasons and the winning doesn’t worry me. Right now there are things to really like about this pre-season, particularly with the offense, without putting much emphasis on the record itself. The fact that 5 of the goals we gave up have been on special teams (4PP & 1SH) is not surprising at all and is also concerning but I’m bracing for the PK to be a grisly work in progress.

What I want to know is where do you find the time to look up all those stats and write all those novels?

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

So how did the goon we picked up from waivers look. Does he have enough skill to be an option for 4th line or are we better off giving the job to Vesey or Zetterlund.

He looked fine...against AHLers.

 

[swiiscompos]

I don’t know if I buy that winning in the pre-season is historically bad for teams either, a pre-season record likely isn’t that meaningful. It’s like saying winning the President’s Trophy is bad for your playoff chances, it’s not, it just that having the best record in the NHL guarantees f*** all in the NHL.

Yes, of course I looked up the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. A big problem was Varlamov went 6-17-0 before getting hip surgery in late January for what was thought to be a groin injury.

Varlamov did win 1-3 against LA in the pre-season, Jeff Zatkoff (who ever that is) gave up 3 goals in the 1st period before being replaced by Jack Campbell in goal.

Varlamov also beat Minnesota 2-0 in his other win, in a game that Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon didn’t play in.

They beat Dallas 1-0 and 4-2 too but the Stars were heading to their own implosion that season due to terrible goaltending plus the loss of several key defensemen.

The Avs had started the pre-season with 4-1 with a win against Wild and ended it with a 2-1 OT win against the Kings. I don’t think this points to performing well in the pre-season as a predictor of anything, these are scrimmages that coaches use to learn about players to make line-up decisions. These are incomplete line-ups often with a variety of goalies.

I suppose theoretically that coaches of bad teams might put more effort into winning in the pre-season, as a confidence booster. Plus they might tend to play all their young players more, while more veteran teams play veteran stars much less in the pre-season. I don’t know to what degree this is actually true and effects pre-season results.

We actually have had some predictive pre-seasons: we won our first three games in 2012-13, but the 3rd W was in OT, and then the last three games were a OT loss, SO loss and a final OT loss. Sure it was missing a regulation loss to really capture what was coming but not winning in extra time pretty much became our MO at that point.

We went 4-2 in 2013-14, only losing to the NYI and Montreal, which makes sense because the the Isles would finish with 5th worst record in the NHL. Brodeur lost both games.

We went 4-1-1 in the 2014-15 pre-season. We beat the NYR twice, including a 0-3 win, while losing to the Flyers 0-4, and then went 1-3 against the NYR and 3-1 against the Flyers that season. The pre-season games don’t even tell you much of anything about how the games against these specific teams will go. (We did win and lose in the SO in two pre-season games against the NYI though and then they were the only team we had two OT losses to.)

We weren’t good in 2015-16 pre-season, going 3-4, and we really stunk up the 2016-17 preseason, going 3-5.

And when we did a lot better in 2017-18, going 5-1-1, we actually did go on to have a much better season, with a more productive offense and other pleasantries.

And then going 2-2-2 in the 2018-19 pre-season, with the last win coming in OT against SC Bern, might have been a sign of the coming regression. Or just nothing.

We went 5-2 in the 2019-20 pre-season, with Cormier and Blackwood having the two losses. Senn won one, Blackwood won one and Schneider won three. Corey then infamously imploded against Winnipeg in the game opener. He did seem like a functional NHL goalie in the pre-season and then very much wasn’t until about February that season but Shero shouldn’t bet on what was the goalie version of fool’s gold at that point.

There are no generic pre-seasons and the winning doesn’t worry me. Right now there are things to really like about this pre-season, particularly with the offense, without putting much emphasis on the record itself. The fact that 5 of the goals we gave up have been on special teams (4PP & 1SH) is not surprising at all and is also concerning but I’m bracing for the PK to be a grisly work in progress.

The short answer to your post (that was informative and I enjoyed reading) is that by "not particularly well" I meant that the preseason record isn't very meaningful, not that it was historically bad for teams to wean the pre-season.

 

[Guttersniped]

If you think centers were slim picking on July 1, you should see how many centers moved in trades this offseason. Cody Glass and Nolan Patrick were traded for one another. Jared McCann was traded ahead of expansion was but selected anyway. Jason Dickinson takes a lot of faceoffs but I'm not sure how much center he actually plays, either way it's not clear he's better than McLeod. Christian Dvorak is the one guy you can point to who was moved, but for a rather high price.

With where the Devils are at, trading futures for a center just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Leafs were dumb to expose McCann, to protect a defenseman who has played 136 regular season NHL games and is going to 30 years old in January. Muzzin is carrying Holl, he’s a nice short term solution but he’s not top 4 defenseman.

They could have had a total stud 3C and they dumped him and now Kerfoot is a 4th line winger and Kampf is their 3C. Yuck. What a goofy trade.

It’s not Pittsburgh would have given us McCann just Boqvist (roughly a slightly older Hällander) and a 7th since we’re in the same division. He’s awesome though and it would have been a baller move to get him, I had no interest in overpaying for Dvorak.

I’m all in on the Cody Glass vs Nolan Patrick
This is such fun random trade. I have no particular view of Cody Glass, other than he lost a year to a knee injury, so who knows if this works out at all for the Preds, but they might have been able to take advantage of Vegas’ frustration over his injury. Neither of those guys are solutions here though.

I would have offered more money to Nick Bonino before trading for Jason Dickinson. He’s better than McLeod currently, but big whoop he’s 26 and this will be his 7th season. His biggest selling point is he’s better than Brandon Sutter.

 

[Hisch13r]

Leafs were dumb to expose McCann, to protect a defenseman who has played 136 regular season NHL games and is going to 30 years old in January. Muzzin is carrying Holl, he’s a nice short term solution but he’s not top 4 defenseman.

They could have had a total stud 3C and they dumped him and now Kerfoot is a 4th line winger and Kampf is their 3C. Yuck. What a goofy trade.

It’s not Pittsburgh would have given us McCann just Boqvist (roughly a slightly older Hällander) and a 7th since we’re in the same division. He’s awesome though and it would have been a baller move to get him, I had no interest in overpaying for Dvorak.

I’m all in on the Cody Glass vs Nolan Patrick
This is such fun random trade. I have no particular view of Cody Glass, other than he lost a year to a knee injury, so who knows if this works out at all for the Preds, but they might have been able to take advantage of Vegas’ frustration over his injury. Neither of those guys are solutions here though.

I would have offered more money to Nick Bonino before trading for Jason Dickinson. He’s better than McLeod currently, but big whoop he’s 26 and this will be his 7th season. His biggest selling point is he’s better than Brandon Sutter.

 

[Guttersniped]

The short answer to your post (that was informative and I enjoyed reading) is that by "not particularly well" I meant that the preseason record isn't very meaningful, not that it was historically bad for teams to wean the pre-season.

I didn’t think you thought we were legit cursed or something, but I don’t think @FooteBahl thought we were going to actually go 104-0 this season either.

And these posts are for my entertainment too, I did enjoy going back, since I mostly remember the more recent “pleasantly successful pre-seasons, then hell-fire rains down killing us all by December” experiences.

I really made the list for 2012-13, the three OT losses in a row to end pre-season really set up 48 game season with 10 OT losses (1st in the NHL!), 7 of those in the SO (1st in the NHL!). (We won 3 OT games, 2 in the SO.)

At that pace in a 82 game season, it would would work out to 17 OT losses, 12 in the SO. (Our record in 2012-13 was a symmetrical 19-19-10, for .500 winning %)

And in 2013-14, we lost 18 games in OT (1st in NHL!) 13 of those in the SO (1st in the NHL!).
We won 9 OT games, zero in the SO.
So yep, we still sucked at it. (Our record was 35-29-18, .537%.)

And remember this was a tragic new affliction, in 2011-12 we had 6 OT losses (a 4 way tie for 3rd lowest in the NHL), 4 in SO (a 6 way tied for 3rd lowest in the NHL).
We won 16 OT games, 12 in the SO (1st in NHL! And not sustainable.) (Our record was 48-28-6, .662%.)

It went back more to normal in 2014-15, we went 5-7 in 12 SO and we lost 7 games in OT the old fashioned way (and only managing to win one in OT the old fashioned way). (Our record was 32-36-14, .476%)

The only thing I will add:
Our record in 2019-20 was 28-29-12, with 6 SO losses. We had 6 OT wins, with 4 wins in the SO.

Our away record was 15-18-2 with zero SO losses.
We had 4 OT wins, with 2 wins in the SO.

Our home record was 13-11-10, with 6 SO losses.
We had 2 OT wins, with 2 wins in the SO. When I talk about disliking the season this home record played a huge part. (I would also point out that 6 of the 13 home wins happened after February 8th, while only 7 home wins came before 50 games were played.)

I generally viewed OT losses as more exciting on principle, but when you’re team goes 2-2-4 at home to start the season it starts to feel like psychological torture. Just lose in regulation and I can get to bed earlier at least.

 

[JimEIV]

1.8 something vs 1.6 something.

It's on naturalstattrick.

But do noted Kuok produced better in tougher minutes with Zajac then he did with Hughes.

Of course Koukkanen produced better 5v5 with Zajac...Zajac had ridiculous numbers 5v5 that didn't have enough time to normalize. What did Zajac shoot for us this season...23% 5v5? Must've been the presence of Kuokkanen

 

[My3Sons]

Must've been the presence of Kuokkanen

Is that what the kids are calling it these days?

 

[JimEIV]

Is that what the kids are calling it these days?

I don't what the kids are saying these days. They're weird.

 

[devilsblood]

The idea that we have a solution to score more but we are only going to use it when we need it doesn't make a lot of sense. Does it?

I think what Ruff is saying is that he thinks the team can score at a good rate with Hughes Nico and Zacha as the top 3 centers.

But when there are lulls, and even the best offensive teams experience them, he would then condense the talent.

 

[devilsblood]

Of course Koukkanen produced better 5v5 with Zajac...Zajac had ridiculous numbers 5v5 that didn't have enough time to normalize. What did Zajac shoot for us this season...23% 5v5? Must've been the presence of Kuokkanen

I was just noting that your assumption of Kuok producing with Hughes was wrong. So unroll those eyeballs.