Value of: Cap Retention

[Perratrooper]

Just out of curiosity, what is the perceived value of cap retention on a contract in terms of a trade value. Obviously the more cap ate, the need for cap space for the potential suitor, as well as the term left the higher the value the said player is worth.

For example if Colorado ate 50% of Barrie's contract in a trade ($2.75mil for 1 year) what would the value be in terms of a draft pick?

Please keep value in terms of draft picks as they are a more definable currency in the NHL that can be worked backwards to determine player value.

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[ChaoticOrange]

Just out of curiosity, what is the perceived value of cap retention on a contract in terms of a trade value. Obviously the more cap ate, the need for cap space for the potential suitor, as well as the term left the higher the value the said player is worth.

For example if Colorado ate 50% of Barrie's contract in a trade ($2.75mil for 1 year) what would the value be in terms of a draft pick?

Please keep value in terms of draft picks as they are a more definable currency in the NHL that can be worked backwards to determine player value.

The problem is if you’re after a first, it’s not going to be as high as you might think. Teams drafting top 12 ish this year aren’t going to be a Tyson Barrie away from seeing immediate dividends and most GM’s won’t make that kind of a risk on a one year test drive before a player heads to UFA.

This whole Ottawa mess you’re currently benefitting from is going to make GM’s more cautious, not more aggressive. Not to mention the potential disaster the Blue Jackets are heading for.

 

[Perratrooper]

The problem is if you’re after a first, it’s not going to be as high as you might think. Teams drafting top 12 ish this year aren’t going to be a Tyson Barrie away from seeing immediate dividends and most GM’s won’t make that kind of a risk on a one year test drive before a player heads to UFA.

This whole Ottawa mess you’re currently benefitting from is going to make GM’s more cautious, not more aggressive. Not to mention the potential disaster the Blue Jackets are heading for.

Not at all expecting a first in a Barrie trade for just retention alone. This was simply used as an example. I selected a player I'm familiar with, who seems to be a likely trade candidate with a year left on a team that can afford to take salary.

I wouldn't expect many teams drafting in the top 12 are looking to add a player like Barrie unless they think they can either contend or are looking to have him long term.

 

[Meeqs]

Just out of curiosity, what is the perceived value of cap retention on a contract in terms of a trade value. Obviously the more cap ate, the need for cap space for the potential suitor, as well as the term left the higher the value the said player is worth.

For example if Colorado ate 50% of Barrie's contract in a trade ($2.75mil for 1 year) what would the value be in terms of a draft pick?

Please keep value in terms of draft picks as they are a more definable currency in the NHL that can be worked backwards to determine player value.

Its very difficult to answer as the question pretty much entirely depends on context. So lets use Barrie as an example.

Retention on Barrie would increase his value in 2 ways. 1) by allowing teams who wouldn't normally have the space to become possible destinations and 2) By allowing him to be a more cost efficient player which would greatly increase his value for teams up against the cap.

So for example if Barrie was traded to NJD then retention would be worth nothing as they have plenty of cap space and limited assets. However if you were a team like Tor, WSH, or TBL and you could get a top end offensive Dman next year for only 2.75m that would be massive and would be worth a significant amount. So Barries trade value would rise both in terms of allowing more teams in on him to create a bidding war which drives up prices as well as allowing a contending team to add such an impactful player for so cheap allowing them to do more with their rosters.

Another aspect that makes it difficult to evaluate is the return from every team would be different which changes what the addition would be along with the value to each team.

 

[Perratrooper]

Its very difficult to answer as the question pretty much entirely depends on context. So lets use Barrie as an example.

Retention on Barrie would increase his value in 2 ways. 1) by allowing teams who wouldn't normally have the space to become possible destinations and 2) By allowing him to be a more cost efficient player which would greatly increase his value for teams up against the cap.

So for example if Barrie was traded to NJD then retention would be worth nothing as they have plenty of cap space and limited assets. However if you were a team like Tor, WSH, or TBL and you could get a top end offensive Dman next year for only 2.75m that would be massive and would be worth a significant amount. So Barries trade value would rise both in terms of allowing more teams in on him to create a bidding war which drives up prices as well as allowing a contending team to add such an impactful player for so cheap allowing them to do more with their rosters.

Another aspect that makes it difficult to evaluate is the return from every team would be different which changes what the addition would be along with the value to each team.

Exactly what I'm trying to get at, I know it is a very ambiguous value in terms of what teams are willing to pay especially on a player to player basis, but it would be interesting to understand what a short term contract with cap retention would be with players who have positive value (Hoffman or Barrie as examples).

 

[Meeqs]

Exactly what I'm trying to get at, I know it is a very ambiguous value in terms of what teams are willing to pay especially on a player to player basis, but it would be interesting to understand what a short term contract with cap retention would be with players who have positive value (Hoffman or Barrie as examples).

A lot of times the value is in simply making the trade a possibility that wouldn't other wise be available. It could manifest in a better prospect or maybe an additional pick. The pick is also likely proportional to how good the player is. So if you want to make an obscure pick value I'd say a 2nd is fair in this circumstance as any team who would be in that position would be a contender, but I will stress again there are a lot of variables and opportunities in play. It could more likely be in the form of a prospect going from not available to available. It all depends but the value is mostly in the flexibility and not really tangible as something like an extra year on the contract would be.

 

[Fourier]

Its very difficult to answer as the question pretty much entirely depends on context. So lets use Barrie as an example.

Retention on Barrie would increase his value in 2 ways. 1) by allowing teams who wouldn't normally have the space to become possible destinations and 2) By allowing him to be a more cost efficient player which would greatly increase his value for teams up against the cap.

So for example if Barrie was traded to NJD then retention would be worth nothing as they have plenty of cap space and limited assets. However if you were a team like Tor, WSH, or TBL and you could get a top end offensive Dman next year for only 2.75m that would be massive and would be worth a significant amount. So Barries trade value would rise both in terms of allowing more teams in on him to create a bidding war which drives up prices as well as allowing a contending team to add such an impactful player for so cheap allowing them to do more with their rosters.

Another aspect that makes it difficult to evaluate is the return from every team would be different which changes what the addition would be along with the value to each team.

Real money also has value. I am sure that if you were trading Barrie to say Arizona the savings in real dollars would matter.

 

[Djp]

Barrie at no retention and Barrie at 50% has little difference

Teams will be hesitant giving up a 2020 1st.

The situation with Ottawa was similar to Toronto.

Tirinto just missed the playoffs and traded for Kessel by giving up 21st and a 2nd. The 1st ended up at 2 and 9.

Similar with Ottawa they wanted to make a run and though he was the missing piece and it blew up.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Real money also has value. I am sure that if you were trading Barrie to say Arizona the savings in real dollars would matter.

Many posters mention Arizona as the place to dump contracts (LTIR, etc.). So, thought I'd look at their salary cap numbers to see where they are at.

Surprisingly (at least to some), they haven't as much space as some would think I suspect. For the 2019-2020 season, they have 17 players signed for a total of $68.5 m. Given the expected $83 million limit, that only leaves them with $14.5 m of cap space. They will need to sign another 6 or 7 players for the 2019-2020 season.

Given that they are a team that will either get into the playoffs, or narrowly miss them, I'd have to wonder if they would continue to trade for cap dumps &/or LTIR contracts? It seems like if they signed a couple more decent players (at a cost of course), they might be better served. That way they could generate playoff revenue ($s) + team success.

Doesn't mean they wouldn't like Barrie at a discount of course, but I wonder if the Yotes will use a different strategy in the near future and if the thinking around here (HF) would have to change accordingly as well.

 

[Fourier]

Many posters mention Arizona as the place to dump contracts (LTIR, etc.). So, thought I'd look at their salary cap numbers to see where they are at.

Surprisingly (at least to some), they haven't as much space as some would think I suspect. For the 2019-2020 season, they have 17 players signed for a total of $68.5 m. Given the expected $83 million limit, that only leaves them with $14.5 m of cap space. They will need to sign another 6 or 7 players for the 2019-2020 season.

Given that they are team that they will either get into the playoffs or narrowly miss them, I'd have to wonder if they would continue to trade for cap dumps &/or LTIR contracts. It seems like if they signed a couple more decent players (at a cost of course), they might be better served. That way they could generate playoff revenue ($s) + team success.

Doesn't mean they wouldn't like Barrie at a discount of course, but I wonder if the Yotes will use a different strategy in the near future and if the thinking around here (HF) would have to change accordingly as well.

In fact, once they are easily over the floor deals like Hossa's are a drag on the team. They have to pay 20% of the salary so I could see them being open to move it for a body that can actually play.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

In fact, once they are easily over the floor deals like Hossa's are a drag on the team. They have to pay 20% of the salary so I could see them being open to move it for a body that can actually play.

I agree, and depending on the player/contract, it could be a drag on the team for several years as well. That doesn't seem like a very wise move for a team that is getting better and starting to be in the playoff mix.

 

[TML1967]

Barrie at no retention and Barrie at 50% has little difference

Teams will be hesitant giving up a 2020 1st.

The situation with Ottawa was similar to Toronto.

Tirinto just missed the playoffs and traded for Kessel by giving up 21st and a 2nd. The 1st ended up at 2 and 9.

Similar with Ottawa they wanted to make a run and though he was the missing piece and it blew up.

Little difference? I would politely disagree strongly.

To a team looking to contend, that's a big difference especially if you took a contract with some cash the other way.

That's basically 3W money for a 1th+- pair dman.
I'd say the difference in value increases exponentially the closer the other team is to the cap and how close they think they are to winning.

 

[YP44]

Phaneuf 50% retained plus 2nd for Barrie...I can dream right

 

[Meeqs]

Real money also has value. I am sure that if you were trading Barrie to say Arizona the savings in real dollars would matter.

It does to some owners but ultimately is irrelevant imo from a team perspective. With the hard cap the teams have a safe and predictable budget each year and with safety nets like revenue sharing its a non issue most of the time.

Ultimately winning teams are profitable in most areas and bad teams struggle to fill seats in most areas and the only thing that matters in terms of the on ice product is AAV.

While 2.5m could be a nice bonus for Arz the extra assets it would cost them would possibly set them back in a long term path enough to not make up for the savings.

Its incredibly rare that actual monetary savings is much of an incentive for a team.

 

[Meeqs]

Phaneuf 50% retained plus 2nd for Barrie...I can dream right

Hey man if you're gunna dream then dream hard.

 

[Meeqs]

Barrie at no retention and Barrie at 50% has little difference

Teams will be hesitant giving up a 2020 1st.

The situation with Ottawa was similar to Toronto.

Tirinto just missed the playoffs and traded for Kessel by giving up 21st and a 2nd. The 1st ended up at 2 and 9.

Similar with Ottawa they wanted to make a run and though he was the missing piece and it blew up.

Imo this is all completely wrong and being justified by outlier cases.

For contending teams like a WSH or TBL its all about contract efficiency, or what you get out of a player relative to their AAV. They already have plenty of talent so its about fitting as many of those talented players under the cap at once as possible. Especially for a team that misses, adding a top end Dman for the AAV of a depth player is insanity and would be highly valuable.

 

[Djp]

Little difference? I would politely disagree strongly.

To a team looking to contend, that's a big difference especially if you took a contract with some cash the other way.

That's basically 3W money for a 1th+- pair dman.
I'd say the difference in value increases exponentially the closer the other team is to the cap and how close they think they are to winning.

at deadline it does not increase exponentially. neither in off season.

take a closer look at 3W money on teams. No Barre is not a top pair Dman..solid 2nd pair but not top pair.

teams are not trading a top half first for a 1 yr rental/ For ROR Colorado didnt get a 1st.