Cap is realistically ~70% !!!

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kdb209

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Jan 26, 2005
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gscarpenter2002 said:
I think it is clear that minimum salary players do not contribute to the escrow.

As said, I doubt it has an impact because I doubt the escrow would be limited to 15%.

The 15% speculation likely comes from the Owners Feb 2 proposal - the first time the escrow mechanism was fully develloped, at least for public consumption.

And, this (exhausting escrow at 15%) is a very unlikely occurance barring a precipitous drop in revenues. All 30 teams would have to average a $36M in player costs ($33.8M payroll) - very unlikely even in this spending environment. There will be teams near the floor and many others with $25M-$30M payrolls.

And the 600 page CBA behemoth is sure to cover these cases.
 

Captain Ron

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kdb209 said:
The 15% speculation likely comes from the Owners Feb 2 proposal - the first time the escrow mechanism was fully develloped, at least for public consumption.

And, this (exhausting escrow) is a very unlikely occurance barring a precipitous drop in revenues. All 30 teams would have to average a $36M in player costs ($33.8M payroll) - very unlikely even in this spending environment. There will be teams near the floor and many others with $25M-$30M payrolls.

And the 600 page CBA behemoth is sure to cover these cases.

Actually if you read my previous post you would see that I found that the escrow is not a set 15% as stated by gscarpenter2002. So I guess it doesn't matter what the average team payroll is because the league can just increase the escrow percentage anyway.

kdb209 said:
All 30 teams would have to average a $36M in player costs ($33.8M payroll) - very unlikely even in this spending environment. There will be teams near the floor and many others with $25M-$30M payrolls.

Actually there are still about 300 players left to sign and some teams are already close to the cap. So I think it is very likely that the average team payroll could be around $33.8 million.
 

Lard_Lad

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gscarpenter2002 said:
Nope. You are as far off as the original poster.

Yup, so I was. I'd assumed the 54% was the upper limit that was used to set the cap, but then there'd be no need for the escrow. Duh.

So if the $1.7 billion is accurate, and the average payroll comes in somewhere in the 32-34 million range, the players will be giving up 5-10% of their salaries. According to the FAQ, the rate gets adjusted at four points during the season, presumably to reflect updated revenue projections. It'll be interesting to find out when those are, and see if we hear anything on those dates as to what's happening with revenues. Even if it's not released to the general public, if they've badly underestimated the lockout damage, revenues really head south, and the escrow rate jumps way up (it'd be probably hit 25-30% on revenues of $1.3 billion) I'm sure there'll be enough *****ing from the players to notice.
 

GSC2k2*

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Lard_Lad said:
if they've badly underestimated the lockout damage, revenues really head south, and the escrow rate jumps way up (it'd be probably hit 25-30% on revenues of $1.3 billion) I'm sure there'll be enough *****ing from the players to notice.

I think that is an extremely safe bet. ;)
 
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