Salary Cap: cap is important for potential trade ideas

Discussion in 'Boston Bruins' started by Alberta_OReilly_Fan, Nov 1, 2018.

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  1. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    I went back several pages to find a cap thread I could retro and they get buried because we just don't want to be reminded that the cap is a reality. my favorite website to get cap info is Boston Bruins - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

    im going to point out a couple things here so that we can think like the team thinks in reguard to potential upgrades for our team this year {and going forward}

    for this year we have 3.545 million dollars of projected room at the current spending

    and heres something you might not know... our players have a potential to earn 4.15 million bonus money.
    bonus money gets tacked onto the cap at the end of the season. bonus money can hurt

    for example... did you know that this year our cap is 774,000 less because WE WENT OVER THE CAP LAST YEAR? this was because our kids earnt their bonuses.

    if we make a trade now and use up all the available cap space... we will go OVER THE CAP AGAIN and next year we will SUFFER WITH A CAP PENALTY

    now... this is important because we have some very serious contract negotations coming up...

    rfa needing new deals are
    McAvoy
    carlo
    Heinen
    donato

    ufa
    chara
    accari
    kamfer

    lets quickly look at these guys... accari/kamfer, and even donato, probably wont get significant raises.

    chara is almost certainly going to take a huge pay cut if hes back at all. lets say chara gets a 2 million base salary and maybe another 2 million in bonus money just in case he has a monster season. his bonus money would only effect us in 2020-2021 so its easier to take

    now the big 3... McAvoy/carlo/Heinen currently earn slightly over 2.5 million between the three of them.

    McAvoy negotiation is going to start with matt dumba at 6 mill... and then look at cam fowler at 6.5... and even look at pietrangelo also at 6.5. we are going to have a very hard time convincing him to lock in long term if hes not in this conversation. contracts are only going up and up and these are all older contracts now. we could try to bridge him but most of us agree bridge contracts for these type of guys can get messy.

    carlo meanwhile comapares with guys like skejei at 5.25... matheson at 4.875... pesce 4.025... nurse 3.2
    … carlo hasn't put up the offense yet that could get him a long term deal at the 5 mill level imho but he might do it this year. I think he has the tools to put up 30 points. skejei has just 1 single season with more than 25 points and just 10 goals in 181 career games. carlo has 6 goals in 170 career games...

    the offense level between skejei and carlo isn't a huge huge gap. matheson has just 1 season with more than 17 points. pesce has never had more than 20 points

    carlo and his agent are going to be looking at 4 mill minimum to sign anything that is longer term. and even a nurse bridge deal is set at 3.2. honestly I think carlo is looking better than nurse

    what about Heinen? hes had a 45 point season? what are his comparables?

    alex wennberg got 4.9 mill... max domi got 3.1 mill... andre burakovsky got 3 mill... ondrej kase got 2.6

    wennberg has never scored more than 13 goals and has only 1 season above 40 points. domi has just 1 season with more than 10 goals. burakovsky has NEVER had a 20 goal season or a 40 point season

    so Heinen already has a pretty good case to ask for 3 mill on a bridge deal. there are comparables. and if hes taking a 6 year deal like wennberg then he might be asking a lot more

    6 mill for McAvoy starting point
    4 mill for carlo starting point
    3 mill for Heinen starting point

    we have $64,619,166 committed next year to the current 16 players under contract... if we add 13 mill to this number that takes us to 77.5 million for 19 players.

    it doesn't include chara… give him 2 mill and we are up too 80 mill for just 20 players

    we still need to add 3 more players... and what about that potential bonus overage that might take away another million or more???

    obviously the answer a lot of you might say... get rid of backes… ok... will have an 8 team trade list so if he doesn't want to go he doesn't have to go. buying him out will result in a cap hit of 5.6 mill saving us roughly 333k it will give us 2.333 savings in 2020 but then cost us 666k for 2 extra years

    you cant just automatically say we can get rid of backes… he needs to be willing to go

    krejci has to give us a 15 player list... but his contract is very high. we will need to take back contract when we trade him. few teams will have the room to take him without moving back contract to us

    so... that's where the cap is at 80 mill... ive seen some people talking about the cap going up and it might... but lets always remember that the escrow system is taking over 10% of the players salaries back every year. this means the cap isn't being calculated true. the cap is actually a very fake number right now. hrr are not being realized.

    if the players don't agree to the escalator the CAP WILL FALL. it could fall as much as 10% considering that the escrow currently is over 10%. my math might have a flaw but a 10% fall could result in a cap of less than 75 mill

    at the very least if the players don't agree to the escalator then any potential increase is almost certainly doomed.

    counting on the cap going up... means that we are counting on the players continuing to be happy to lose 10% or more of their money every year. sure, this money goes to their brothers. without the escalator new ufa wont get the same money old guys got. but where does this end?

    the players did not authorize a max escalator this year. they are angry at the system. it might be coming to an end.

    anyhow... heres another wall of text... my apologies... but this is a huge issue that needs an understanding before we can get angry at the team for not bringing in a second line scorer or a 3rd line center.

    anyone we bring in that has a contract will effect next years budget and next years budget is already too high. if we end up with a cap penalty it could really be a huge problem so we need to keep room this year. and its very possible we are going to have to look at a fan favorite like Heinen or krug and move them because its not a guarantee we can move someone like backes or krejci without bringing back a lot of salary in return.
     
  2. UConn126

    UConn126 Bass Player.

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    Since your post, Donato has been demoted to Providence, so there's a good chunk of his potential bonuses gone depending on how long he's down there.

    Capfriendly.com now has listed $5,101,710 as our current cap space, and $3,295,000 as potential bonuses, and that's with Lauzon and Urho on the roster, who definitely won't hit any bonuses as they don't have full time roster spots right now.

    That leaves McAvoy, Carlo, DeBrusk, Bjork, and Heinen left to potentially earn bonuses, and they've combined for 16 points through 51 games. At the current rate, the only one I'd be concerned with hitting a large payout of bonus money is Charlie.

    Bottom line, I'm not worried about the cap situation.
     
  3. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    fair enough.. but remember theres a fairly decent chance we will continue to count more than 23 contracts against the number. whenever guys go down and get replaced and there is no ltir… it results in more contracts being counted.

    also its likely the team will want to add people at the deadline... most teams in our situation will add 2-3 support contracts that don't excite anyone but do count

    if an important guy was hurt... and put on the ltir… and we replaced them... the way ltir counts, we would still get hurt on the cap. the cap would be maxed before we got relief. at this point with the cap maxed ALL BONUS MONEY BECOMES A PENALTY

    ltir PLUS bonus EQUALS bad times

    so... all in all... adding a lot of extra cap hit right now must be done with careful consideration and we must make sure its worth the risk.
     
  4. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    just so we don't confuse people here... I should explain cap friendlys numbers becau

    I should explain cap friendly numbers because you did misunderstand them a bit in your post here... I will first just copy and past them before I show you your mistake

    PROJECTED CAP HIT [​IMG] : $75,193,718

    PROJECTED LTIR USED [​IMG] : $0

    PROJECTED CAP SPACE [​IMG] : $4,306,282


    CURRENT CAP SPACE [​IMG] : $5,101,710
    DEADLINE CAP SPACE [​IMG] : $20,024,211
    TODAYS CAP HIT [​IMG] : $75,213,167
    ROSTER SIZE: 21/23
    CONTRACTS: 45/50
    RESERVE LIST: 63/90

    so you are saying we have current cap space of 5,101,710
    but theres a couple things you are overlooking...
    first we have only 21 of 23 contracts counting today. this creates a distortion

    and second look at the projected cap space number and the projected cap hit...
    its at 4,306,282 for what we have projected based on our current rate of use

    this means we we could technically and legally add a 5 million guy today just due to how the cap has added up to today's measure... but it would not be possible to keep him at the current rate we are using our cap. eventually there would be an 800 000 overage before the end of the year arrived. and then of course we would get smashed by the bonus situation

    the other thing to note here… is how deadline space is so huge. this is because when trades are made only the amount left owing the player adds to our cap. of coruse, by deadline time most of the contract is paid by the current team. so we can add big contracts at the deadline and not end up paying much for them

    this is why the team is likely to wait for the deadline before using its available cap space. if we do add anyone right now... its very likely we will need to subtract someone. keeping our cap space for now is important and imo very likely the direction the team is moving in
     
  5. LSCII

    LSCII Dark Cloud

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    Why on earth would you worry about resigning a UFA if he's named Kampfer or Acciari, let alone calculate a raise for them? Those guys are the literal personification of replaceable players. You simply find the next one that will play for less and plug and play. You never extend yourself to retain 4th line guys and bottom pairing dmen. That's how the previous regime got into trouble. Overpaying for bottom of the roster guys instead of replacing them.
     
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  6. Dom - OHL

    Dom - OHL ohlwriters.me Sponsor

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    Mike.

    How do you figure there is only 21 contracts counting towards the cap?

    By my count, there is 24.

    You forgot Urho, Miller and McAvoy.

    Because they are on injured reserve, they don't count as a roster spot (or rather, their roster spot can be filled), but they most certainly count towards the cap.

    So yes, it creates a distortion. But not the one you are making. When all healthy, one body will have to go down, making the cap hit drop, and cap space go up.

    We should all just leave the cap to me, and when I say it's time to worry, then you should all start to worry :D:sarcasm::popcorn:
     
  7. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    I didn't add them up dom... just copied the actual info at capfriendly. im not if they made a mistake or if theres a technical issue but I do know that we don't have 5 mill cap space once all the contracts get accounted for.

    my answer here was just directed towards that issue of the 5 mill quote after the donato demotion.

    so many people here continue to think only 23 contracts will be counted to towards the cap on a day to day basis. when they make their fantasy trades they continue to add 23 contracts and if it comes in 5 bucks under the cap they think its ok.

    you know that the cap is way more complicated than that. you know better than any of us how the whole bonus thing can spring up and bite us on the butt.

    im not telling anyone we need to panic about this years cap. sweeney has this year well under control. but part of that control is not adding a bunch of expensive deals.

    im going to guess... he talked to krecji and/or backes before the Tavares thing. it would have been very poor planning on his part to not have an exit plan to cover the cap if we had been successful getting Tavares. the fact that krecji was vocally upset about this makes me think we broached the topic with him.

    im going to guess... the talk went something like... we will trade you where you want to go if you agree this year... or next year you take your chances with 15 possible destinations.

    im playing amateur detective... but my guess is that weve angered krejci a bit with how we handled that and chances are he will need to be moved next year. if he is moved... our cap looks a lot better.

    no one... not a single one of us... is sure how the whole escalator thing will continue to play out. the players have been told to stay quiet on the matter. its a delicate issue for the union. quite simply, if they current signed players don't agree to bend over and take the hit.. new unsigned players wont get their raises as free agents.

    the preasure exists... we did the escalator when you were a free agent so now you must do it for us...

    but it doesn't make things any easier for the vast majority of players who bargained for a contract and are losing 10% of their contracted money... more than 10%

    guys like connor McDavid are losing over a million dollars a year everytime they agree to the escalator. that's not an easy sell job

    the nhlpa is a union and its supposed to represent the interests of its players. its a hard case to make that the escalator is serving the best interest of the majority of the players. theres far fewer free agents then there are guys with contracts

    for the longest time... the contracts were paid to older players. younger guys would pay their dues and once they reached free agency they would get rewarded. but the political climat has changed. theres a huge backlash against paying older players now

    its these second term contracts that are taking all the money now...

    these young guns sign a deal for 6-8 years and figure how much they expect to get... but they have to know that in 6-8 years they may get screwed. the climate is turning against paying older players. and then on top of that, you start taking 10-18% of their current contract... and suddenly how willing are they to continue that model?

    when the players put their foot down... and demand the money they negotiated... we have a problem Houston

    so.. people like yourself that are calculating the potential avenues that could increase the cap... I will take a bit of a precautionary exception. the current cap is not being calculated accurately and its resting on the backs of these players.

    on top of that... government handouts get included into the hrr. a lot of league revenues come from the various 31 markets and whatever sweetheart deals they have with local and federal tax payers. theres sooooooo many different things going on from lotteries to tax breaks to arena help to whatever.

    now this government money might continue as is... might increase... but I feel its far more likely given what I see in the world, that this government handout to the teams is going to decrease. I wont be able to say how much... but to just blindly march forward and say that next year the league will get as much government money as it did this year... that's really quite optimistic.

    when new arenas get built... it boosts the hrr and fuels the cap increase... but how many new arenas are getting built now in the next few years compared to the last few years?

    I know you believe the cap will increase significantly... and if seattle comes in on schedule you might be right. but its not quite all guaranteed written in stone.

    teams do need to have all contingencies covered when making these sorts of planning moves. you and I both get a chance to have fun in our hfl league and weve had some discussions about the tricky nature of planning our caps. ive seen the huge work you do to manage yours. I tip my hat. you are really on top of this...

    but as good as you are... as hard as you work... I think youd agree with me that real nhl teams employ people making a lot of money to manage their caps. and even then, they are still constantly getting caught with their pants down. cap management is not easy

    and no one knows what the number will be right up to the last second. the teams themselves have been given estimates a few times during the year... but the final numbers are often more than a million dollars out of line with what we were all expecting.

    the number is being calculated... incorrect... and being forced to work only because escrow bails them out... and even then, its still a mystery right to the last second what the number will be anyhow. its a tricky tricky tricky system to keep on top of
     
  8. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    actually I do understand what you are saying now about how I misspoke. I don't actually add up everyone salaries and do the math... I just take the numbers as presented by capfriendly

    when I pointed out the roster number... I was brining up an irrelevant piece of information

    so hopefully I can retroactively leave it out... I still stand by my main point I was making that we don't have 5 million dollars of cap space when everything shakes out
     
  9. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    im not sure I did worry... I basically said its safe to assume they wont get a raise

    I just wanted to be as accurate as possible when I outlayed the various factors involved and since I was listing free agents and they are free agents I included them in the list

    the 3 you worry about are McAvoy/carlo/Heinen and they will cost us $$$$

    honestly I hope kamfer and acciari lose their jobs to better people and go find work on another team... nothing against them as people, I just want better players on our team and hope that a kid like senshyn could replace accari and someone like lauzon could replace kampfer
     
  10. Dom - OHL

    Dom - OHL ohlwriters.me Sponsor

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    The "current cap space" on cap friendly is not the actual cap space. "Projected cap space" is the projected cap space at the end of the season if nothing changes. But it will change because you can't have 24 bodies counting against the cap, unless a player is on IR.

    "Current cap space" is the contract the Bruins could add today and still be cap compliant at season's end.

    In other words, while they don't have $5.1 million in space right now, they can add a $5.1 million salary today and still be cap compliant at the end of the season.

    And I'm not sure you bringing up the roster number was irrelevant because you went into great detail explaining the 21 and 23. You went on to tell us we should be cognizant of that and so on.... so I'm not sure you were bring up irrelevant info... you just didn't have it right.

    As I explained in another thread, the NHL just signed a $200 million deal with MGM, of which $100 million goes directly to the players and the cap (pension and other stuff reduces the cap amount). And it is NOT an exclusive deal, which means they can sign more such agreements.

    They are also negotiating with ESPN for Wednesday night hockey on the network and negotiating with NBC on an extension.

    I also said that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the cap hit $90 million in two years.

    The Bruins have no need to worry about the cap. They'll have plenty of wiggle room when they need it.
     
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  11. Donnie Shulzhoffer

    Donnie Shulzhoffer Rocket Surgery Sponsor

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    There are four rules that I live by:

    Never get less than twelve hours sleep;
    Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city;
    Never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body;
    And never, ever disagree with Dom about the cap.

    Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.
     
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  12. GlenFeatherstone

    GlenFeatherstone Registered User

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    Hopefully you and Scott Howard still live by the rules.
     
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  13. Brent Hughes

    Brent Hughes Registered User

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    Just so you know, rule four is available all over the internet. I use it all the time.
     
  14. Alberta_OReilly_Fan

    Alberta_OReilly_Fan Bruin fan since 1975

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    well... I was surprised to see the contracts were 21... I never get involved in the calculations myself. I use cap friendly as my source

    so when I was trying to explain that projected space is more important then the size of a contract we can absorb today I had the contract number on my head. I type quick and don't proofread... I was trying to figure out a way to explain why this number might be out

    so I mentioned the contract number... I got it from cap friendly... it wasn't a big deal to me. I was just trying to explain many factors go into the cap that we don't really know...

    so when I say it was irrelevant... I mean I made a mistake. you pointed it out to me... I took a second look. I see that theres guys on the injury list coming off. none of it matters to the cap. so I apologized and said I mentioned something that was irrelevant

    I was agreeing with you

    as for signing a deal with mgm that's good. Im not up on whatever deal they signed 3 years ago with some hockey stick company or some fast food joint. I don't know if that contract is expiring this year or might be renewed. im not up to date on any of the dozens and dozens of sponsorships the league might be gaining or losing at any given time

    I do know that many league owners have claimed to lose a lot of money
    the league has stepped in to find new owners for teams that were in disarray
    theres been lawsuits
    some teams have moved

    the owners did a couple lockouts to get a cap because they said they were going out of business without it

    all in all... the cap goes up... but does it go up faster than music.. or movies... or... other sports... or life?

    as a society we love our entertainment... and it all goes up in price. is the nhl doing anything special to go up? or just riding the wave of reality?

    will the cap go up to 90 million... I hope we are friends in 2 years and you can tell me then how wrong I was to ever question you. until then I think the system is far shakier grounds then you are painting the picture here.

    I believe the league is built on a house of cards. I believe if things were as rosy as you say... there would be a lineup a mile long to own teams. there would be no complaints by the owners about the money they lose... or so many of them selling their teams. I believe the players wouldn't be publically complaining they lose 10+% of their contracts to escrow

    honestly I didn't think the cap would go up this year... I was wrong this year... but it only went up because of escalator. if there was no escalator it wouldn't hve gone up

    and if theres no escalator next year... I will go on record here and now... there will be no increase in the cap. everyone feel free to come kick me in the nuts next june if im wrong. its here in writing now. I don't buy the rosy picture of the nhl's finances.

    and yet the team is stuck with the cap. whether its true or not the finances are as reported... the cap is still a reality. and if we gamble wrong on the cap... it will cost us. running into cap problems is not good and it causes you to lose players you don't want to lose

    it must be avoided if possible
     
  15. Baddkarma

    Baddkarma El Guapo to most...

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    All that reading was very informative.

    Now the Bruins need a GM that can win a trade or two in a big way within those cap specifics...
     
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