Prospect Info: Canucks select William Lockwood in 3rd Round, 64th Overall

iceburg

Don't ask why
Aug 31, 2003
7,636
3,997
If that's our lineup 2 or 3 years from now we really got hosed in the 2017, 2018, and 2019 draft lotteries.

Future lineups are silly because the majority of prospects crash and burn. Guadette and Lockwood will be lucky to make it as 3rd line forwards. Basing your hopes off them being top 6 forwards along with Dahlen is a foolish game.

This organization really needs a Top 2 pick so people stop overating/gravitating to every half decent canuck prospect.

Agreed. If the draft is good in 2017 and 2018 (i.e. top 2 or 3) then the pool they might have to draw from in 2019 is as follows (subject to trades and signings of course):

Top six forwards:
Horvat
Boeser
!st rounder 2017
1st rounder 2018

Middle six forwards:
Baertschi
Granlund
Virtanen
Goldobin
Dahlen
Eriksson
Sutter

Bottom six forwards:
Gaudette
Lockwood
Gaunce
Boucher

There are others of course but the above would be considered the core.
And the jury hasn't even started deliberating on a lot fo these players. It's quite possible, maybe even likely, that 3 or 4 of the players on this list will never have an impactful NHL career.
 

denkiteki

Registered User
Jun 29, 2010
3,767
6
Sedins on the 3rd line + the most expensive 4th line are 2 key points that the "Play the Youngsters" movement are pushing for... Just sub Boucher and Gaunce into the spot where Dahlen & Goldobin are supposed to go for this year.

There's playing youth movement and playing them in Utica movement... That's more likely a 2nd line in Utica in 2 years than in the NHL. Even "youth" movements, you rarely see a 2nd line consisting of pretty much all rookies (since 2 of the 3 players are going back to NCAA next year and no rumors of Dahlen coming over next season, its safe to assume none of them will play next season or at least not till the end, making them rookies in 2 years).

Unless you're talking about very high end players (i.e. at least top 10 picks), you rarely see rookies step right into a 2 line role. Even if i support the play younger player movement, i don't like the idea of having a full line without some experience mixed in. Its the same reason you generally want to pair a young D with an experienced one. The experience player can help teach the prospect.

Also i'm not sure what you mean with the Gaunce/Boucher comments... they played minor roles for most of the year (Gaunce was on the 4th line most of the year, Boucher couldn't even get in the line-up for a good part of the year...).

Plus again, despite how bad their contracts are, neither Sutter nor Eriksson are 4th liners... They aren't 4th liners on a cup contender forget a rebuilding team. If you want to play them as 4th liner, you're better off eating half their salary and trading them for assets... (plus if given the choice between staying in Vancouver on the 4th line vs waiving their NTC/NMC to play more minutes, i think they'll waive and leave in a heartbeat).
 

jeromemorrow

Registered User
May 3, 2016
1,543
23
Vancouver, BC
Agreed. If the draft is good in 2017 and 2018 (i.e. top 2 or 3) then the pool they might have to draw from in 2019 is as follows (subject to trades and signings of course):

Top six forwards:
Horvat
Boeser
!st rounder 2017
1st rounder 2018

Middle six forwards:
Baertschi
Granlund
Virtanen
Goldobin
Dahlen
Eriksson
Sutter

Bottom six forwards:
Gaudette
Lockwood
Gaunce
Boucher

There are others of course but the above would be considered the core.
And the jury hasn't even started deliberating on a lot fo these players. It's quite possible, maybe even likely, that 3 or 4 of the players on this list will never have an impactful NHL career.

I would just tweak your projections abit.


Top six forwards (hopefully & trending upwards):
Horvat
Baertschi

Top six forwards (maybe):
Boeser
!st rounder 2017
1st rounder 2018

Middle six forwards (established):
Eriksson

Middle six forwards (maybe):
Gaudette
Goldobin
Dahlen

Bottom six forwards (established):
Sutter
Granlund
Gaunce

Bottom six forwards (maybe):
Virtanen
Boucher
Lockwood
 

iceburg

Don't ask why
Aug 31, 2003
7,636
3,997
I would just tweak your projections abit.


Top six forwards (hopefully & trending upwards):
Horvat
Baertschi

Top six forwards (maybe):
Boeser
!st rounder 2017
1st rounder 2018

Middle six forwards (established):
Eriksson

Middle six forwards (maybe):
Gaudette
Goldobin
Dahlen

Bottom six forwards (established):
Sutter
Granlund
Gaunce

Bottom six forwards (maybe):
Virtanen
Boucher
Lockwood

Sure. I think your "established & maybe" categories show the main issue exactly. There are only 6 established players, 3 of which could be considered bottom six. I think expecting more than 5 of the 9 maybes to reach their potential is expecting too much. i.e while the prospect depth has improved with additions like Lockwood and the emergence of Gaudette, it is still a long way from being solid at forward.
 

denkiteki

Registered User
Jun 29, 2010
3,767
6
I would just tweak your projections abit.


Top six forwards (hopefully & trending upwards):
Horvat
Baertschi

Top six forwards (maybe):
Boeser
!st rounder 2017
1st rounder 2018

Middle six forwards (established):
Eriksson

Middle six forwards (maybe):
Gaudette
Goldobin
Dahlen

Bottom six forwards (established):
Sutter
Granlund
Gaunce

Bottom six forwards (maybe):
Virtanen
Boucher
Lockwood

I don't agree with the categories just because its not very descriptive of their roles. Top 6/Middle 6 both covers the 2nd line so realistically you could argue players being on either list due to the description (or both). Take someone like Eriksson, he had been a 30 goal scorer (and multiple times > 20 goals, career high 36 goals, miltiple 70+ pt seasons) and top 60 in the league in scoring (plus he is a fine 2 way forward) so by definition, he would be top 6. That said, he also clearly isn't a top line player anymore and you could argue his scoring was in more of a supporting role so middle 6 argument. You can even argue bottom 6 with his production this year... (24 points in 65 games... which is worst than h is rookie year of 31 in 69).

Also another similar player, the last few years in Vrbata has proven 1 season doesn't mean a lot... Remember his first year with us he scored 31/32 for 63 points. Then the very next season he had a Eriksson like year in producyion (27 points). This year his production bounced back to 53 points. In short, the player's usage has a lot to do with their production (and WD has been horrible with that this year). So realistically i would more likely give Eriksson the benefit of the doubt than just assume he is no longer a top 6 player going forward.

I would actually break up the category into top line players (which is really what top 6 is referring to anyways). Middle 6 since 2/3rd line is hard to split up and players often move between those lines and 4th liners (i.e. players that likely will play less minutes).

1st line likely (Sedin possible replacement)
Horvat - There clearly isn't anyone who can replace Sedin's production but Horvat is the closest, he leads the team in points and most nights his line is by far the best line (regardless of who his wingers are)

1st line upside/hopeful:
Boeser - Limited sample size but he has the shot to be a 30 goal scorer and seems to play well with Horvat.
2017 1st round - Considering its likely going to being in the top 6, lots of potential options
2018 1st round - Deeper draft than 2017 so unless we make the playoffs, just as much potential as 2017

Middle 6
Baertschi - Has been great with Horvat but not as good without him... At the very least looks like a support player so he will be no worst than a top 9 forward

Eriksson - Moves up and down the line-up but is solid in his own end and past production would put him in top 60 (top 2 lines) so he's no worst than a 3rd liner

Shutter - Don't like his contract but he's a legitimate 3rd liner in the NHL. His production is align with most 3rd liners in the league (and note he didn't score much on the PP so its not like the Sedins/PP inflated his production) plus he played on the 3rd line for a cup contender in Pittsburgh. Still in the prime of his career so no reason to expect him to be anywhere but the middle 6.

Granlund - Produced pretty much what you expect a 3rd liner to produce... has offensive upside to be a 2nd liner but was no worst than a 3rd liner for us this sason

Middle 6 (high potential, as in likely will be a middle 6 forward)
Goldobin - Former 1st round pick, has a ton of offensive skills but not really being deployed well, his offensive ability gives him 2nd/3rd line potential

Gaudette - Solid 2 way game in NCAA and his scoring number is among the best ever for a 2nd year player (in the NCAA), think 'nucks fan might be surprised how good he is when he signs (think Boeser part 2)

Lockwood - Hansen comparison and considering the hype he's getting now, he'll likely be no worst than a 3rd line winger who moves up and down the top 9

Dahlen - PPG in Tier 1 SHL (1 level below the top) is very good for D+1 year...

Middle 6 (low potential, meaning more likely will be 4th liners)
Boucher - Shown flashes of offense and has a deadly shot... of course forgets how to play D every so often could hurt his chances... also someone who was waived a few times (but also claimed every time) shows both his upside and how he isn't there yet

Gaunce - He was a 4th liner, his upside suggest he might develop into a 3rd line center at best so potential is low but he also showed he could play in the NHL (at least) as a rookie.
 

jeromemorrow

Registered User
May 3, 2016
1,543
23
Vancouver, BC
@denkiteki .... great summary! Better than what I would've done.. I've replied via State of the Canucks thread to leave this as a Lockwood thread.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
Curious if the Canucks are interested in signing this player.

Remember there was a lot of hype about him a while back. He can be a free agent next year.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,004
9,637
Curious if the Canucks are interested in signing this player.

Remember there was a lot of hype about him a while back. He can be a free agent next year.
I would expect the Canucks to want to sign him. Probably one of the reasons they are at 47/50 contracts. Have to leave spots open for Lockwood and maybe Madden (though for Madden, he may be better served returning to Northeastern vs going to Utica. Probably trust Northeastern more than Utica staff). Plus any NCAA free agent or TDL addition.

He opted to return to Michigan after a great Junior season where he posted 31 points in 36 games. As a freshman, 20 in 30, and had his sophomore year cut short with a shoulder injury, producing at the same rate as a freshman. As a senior, his production is back down to the 2/3 PPG rate as it was before.

He is still projected to be a 3rd line checker. Brings speed and is tenacious. Would expect Benning to offer him a deal that burns his 1st year ELC this season to get him signed. Team is going to need bottom 6 guys to replace Schaller and Leivo due to the upcoming cap crunch.
 

sting101

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
15,859
14,699
No reason why they wouldn't sign him. Will seemed really keen on being a Canuck and has the type of wheels and hands where he has a fighting chance. He's gonna need to pack on some muscle to survive in the role he likely plays as a pro though
 

krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
16,840
9,512
lockwood has a ufa option and is on career trajectory to be facing a couple of years of ahl time. i suspect he will look hard at his options on where to go and study depth charts. a team like detroit or ottawa might make more sense as somewhere he can get called up quicker, and he might just choose an original six us team because he's an american kid.

now if we have garbage time to play him in i can see us signing him with the guaranteed cup of nhl coffee as a sweetener, but otherwise i think you might see us trade his rights for a nominal amount so another team can do that.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,004
9,637
lockwood has a ufa option and is on career trajectory to be facing a couple of years of ahl time. i suspect he will look hard at his options on where to go and study depth charts. a team like detroit or ottawa might make more sense as somewhere he can get called up quicker, and he might just choose an original six us team because he's an american kid.

now if we have garbage time to play him in i can see us signing him with the guaranteed cup of nhl coffee as a sweetener, but otherwise i think you might see us trade his rights for a nominal amount so another team can do that.
They have to get him into the lineup if they sign him. That's their biggest advantage because he does have that UFA option if he waits it out until August. Have to give him the chance to burn the ELC year. Bottom 6 needs an infusion of speed.

He's spending 4 years at Michigan and based solely off their football team, there should be great facilities and nutritionists to help him improve his strength.

He's been reported as being tenacious, but hopefully he's smart about it and not going to try to play significantly bigger than his size like Brule did and injury himself. At 5'11 and 175 lbs or whatever, can play like a 6'1 200 lb guy, not a 6'4 230 lb guy.
 

shottasasa

Registered User
Nov 16, 2011
870
715
Canada
Lockwood’s upside is something akin to Motte, which can be useful on the bottom two lines. Ideally he could be a replacement when Motte becomes a UFA and potentially gets a bit more expensive
 

F A N

Registered User
Aug 12, 2005
18,698
5,937
Lockwood’s upside is something akin to Motte, which can be useful on the bottom two lines. Ideally he could be a replacement when Motte becomes a UFA and potentially gets a bit more expensive

Ya. As much as I like Lockwood and wanting the Canucks to sign him, he's not likely to be a big loss if he walks, although he would set a precedent.

I hope the Canucks sign Lockwood. We need players like Lockwood in the system.
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
21,223
14,397
I'm not getting any Motte vibes with Lockwood. Motte burst out in his junior season at the U of Michigan with 32 goals and 56 points. Was at the time a pretty high-rated prospect in Chicago's system. Was reluctantly traded to Columbus along with Artemi Panarin when the Hawks re-acquired Brandon Saad as part of a cap-dump. (Now that was an ugly deal for the cap-strapped Hawks!).

But I still see some offensive potential with Motte.....could hit 15 goals in a good season and if Green ever moved him up in the lineup. As for Lockwood, just not sure. The injuries have slowed his development for sure, but not really seeing the offensive upside in his game.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,004
9,637
Motte was on a big line with Kyle Connor and JT Compher that year. Only Connor has gone into being a scorer in the NHL. Compher more a middle 6 guy. Motte is a bottom 6 guy.

Lockwood projects more like a bottom 6 checking winger with speed. His numbers are down this season but so is the entire team. 7-11-2 record and they have 45 goals total. 2.25 per game. Lockwood is the second leading scorer.
 

dombrova22

Registered User
Apr 12, 2017
1,119
699
Well well well, how the times have changed.

Top 6: Boeser, Horvat, Miller, Pettersson.

Trending top 6: Virtanen, Pearson.

Possible top 6: Hoglander, Podkolzin

Bottom 6: Gaudette, Beagle, Motte.

Possible bottom 6: Madden, Lind, Lockwood, MacEwen, Gadjovich.
 

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