Speculation: Canucks Need to make a Trade

[4Twenty]

That's already accounted for and what brings them to 1.9.

Huh. I was responding to someone asking couldn't they demote Sven and Loui....I said yes, but they don't get much wiggle room doing that.

 

[BCNate]

They get $2m in cap space to bury those guys. It’s still bad. They still need to make room for Pettersson and Hughes expected bonuses for this coming season so they don’t carry over until next season when they’re making huge money instead of ELC’s.

EP and Hughes are easy, that is the least of concern. We have20 million+ coming off the books. EP and Hughes will increase 12-15 million. Plenty of room for them even if they lock into 8x10 deals, which won't happen.

 

[BCNate]

Buyout window has passed

First one has, Canucks qualify for the 2nd one due to arbitration.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

As mentioned in the Schmidt trade thread I believe in a normal world, Roussel, Baertschi, Sutter, Beagle should be easy to move, but here it seems every dump is really costly. I however think that teams near capfloor should be open to trading for those guys with the right incentives : let us say Baertschi + 2nd, only 2.4m real dollars for one year, I would do this if I was OTT, maybe it cots a 1st do dump Sutter though. My guess is that buyers are waiting to get higher picks attached

Ya, GMs with cap space can just wait until deals become even better. Time is on their side. Some recent trades with very low returns are proof of this.

 

[BCNate]

Based on the regular season and playoffs, it's a miracle Ferland plays the game again. Maybe Jimbo knows he'd certainly go on LTIR.

or he knows Ferland is out long term at a minimum. They may not know whether he retires or not, but do know he is not going to be ready for opening day I'd assume. 3 concussions in less than a year.....Have to think you are out 6-9 months at a minimum.

 

[4Twenty]

EP and Hughes are easy, that is the least of concern. We have20 million+ coming off the books. EP and Hughes will increase 12-15 million. Plenty of room for them even if they lock into 8x10 deals, which won't happen.

Having a competitive team is the goal, not just fitting those.

I wouldn't call any of that easy.

Next year you lose: Baertschi $3.4m, Sutter $4.4m, Pearson $3.75m, Edler $6.0m, and Benn $2m. Lets stick with your $20m (even though it's slightly less).

Next year you need to sign: Pettersson (I want his whole prime locked up I'd shoot for 8years x 11), Hughes (is a 10.2C, no leverage, but he's your 2nd best player, I gave him 3 years @ $6.5m).

Even stopping at those two deals, that's only $2.5m left to spend out of what left.

You also need to sign your goalie of the future, I gave him 2 years @ $4.7m

If you also add Virtanen at just over $3m and Gaudette at $1.5m and fill out the rest with $800k to $1m players like Rafferty, Juolevi, Hoglander, Woo, Rathbone, Macewen and Lockwood.

Oh yeah, in my scenario I bring Edler back on a 1 year $3.5m contract.


All of that seems reasonable right? It's ~$4m over the cap, with Ferland on LTIR. Ferland on the roster and an $800k to $1m player waived, and they're over $7m over the cap.


Since I don't know how to link a capfriendly lineup:

Miller 5.25 - Petttersson 11.0 - Boeser 5.8
Eriksson 6 - Horvat 5.5 - Hoglander 0.9
Motte 1.2 - Gaudette 1.5 - Virtanen 3.1
MacEwan 0.83 - Beagle 3.0- Roussell 3.0
Lockwood 0.85

Hughes 6.5 - Schmidt 5.9
Edler 3.5 - Myers 6
Rathbone 0.92 - Juolevi 0.8
Woo 0.8 - Rafferty 0.8

Demko 4.7
Hotby 4.3

Ferland LTIR

Remaining cap space: -$3,880,212 That's a minus.

Really nice top end, but it looks like Detroit/Ottaw bottom 6 and bottom pairs.

 

[Cquant]

Having a competitive team is the goal, not just fitting those.

I wouldn't call any of that easy.

Next year you lose: Baertschi $3.4m, Sutter $4.4m, Pearson $3.75m, Edler $6.0m, and Benn $2m. Lets stick with your $20m.

Next year you need to sign: Pettersson (I want his whole prime locked up I'd shoot for 8years x 11), Hughes (is a 10.2C, no leverage, but he's your 2nd best player, I gave him 3 years # $6.5m).

Even stopping at those two deals, that's only $2.5m left to spend out of what left.

You also need to sign your goalie of the future, I gave him 2 years @ $4.7m

If you also add Virtanen at just over $3m and Gaudette at $1.5m and fill out the rest with $800k to $1m players like Rafferty, Juolevi, Hoglander, Woo, Rathbone, Macewen and Lockwood.

Oh yeah, in my scenario I bring Edler back on a 1 year $3.5m contract.


All of that seems reasonable right? It's ~$4m over the cap, with Ferland on LTIR. Ferland on the roster and an $800k to $1m player waived, and they're over $7m over the cap.


Since I don't know how to link a capfriendly lineup:

Miller 5.25 - Petttersson 11.0 - Boeser 5.8
Eriksson 6 - Horvat 5.5 - Hoglander 0.9
Motte 1.2 - Gaudette 1.5 - Virtanen 3.1
MacEwan 0.83 - Beagle 3.0- Roussell 3.0
Lockwood 0.85

Hughes 6.5 - Schmidt 5.9
Edler 3.5 - Myers 6
Rathbone 0.92 - Juolevi 0.8
Woo 0.8 - Rafferty 0.8

Demko 4.7
Hotby 4.3

Ferland LTIR

Remaining cap space: -$3,880,212 That's a minus.

I love the work you put into this. It definitely makes things clearer. But..
- With the market the way it is, Petey will not be able to ask for 11 million, because him being able to ask for 11 million requires the cap to be rising. And it isn't. Either he signs long term for less, or he needs to agree to a bridge deal.
- I love Petey but he will not command more than McDavid. He'd be looking at something between 8.5-10.5. Hopefully at a bridge deal, it'd be more like 6-7? I'm just spewing numbers out. We'd need to take a look at comparables.
- Demko hasn't earned a 4.7 just yet. Whether he earns that next season is also up for grabs. That is Lehner money. It would be quite easy to argue against that.
- I really hope at this point, that Edler would sign for slightly less, especially given the market and that he would effectively be playing 3rd/2nd pairing minutes.
- All that said. I honestly think Hughes could ask for slightly more.

I think with a bit of negotiating, things can still work out nicely. But clearly we won't be able to keep all our support players, we are going to heavily rely on our prospects and we are definitely going to have to do something about the Beagle/ Roussel/ Virtanen/ Eriksson contracts. I don't think we can get around paying a significant asset to get rid of someone. The Luongo recapture penalty is going to really screw us over, along with Louis contract of course.

 

[BCNate]

Having a competitive team is the goal, not just fitting those.

I wouldn't call any of that easy.

Next year you lose: Baertschi $3.4m, Sutter $4.4m, Pearson $3.75m, Edler $6.0m, and Benn $2m. Lets stick with your $20m (even though it's slightly less).

Next year you need to sign: Pettersson (I want his whole prime locked up I'd shoot for 8years x 11), Hughes (is a 10.2C, no leverage, but he's your 2nd best player, I gave him 3 years @ $6.5m).

Even stopping at those two deals, that's only $2.5m left to spend out of what left.

You also need to sign your goalie of the future, I gave him 2 years @ $4.7m

If you also add Virtanen at just over $3m and Gaudette at $1.5m and fill out the rest with $800k to $1m players like Rafferty, Juolevi, Hoglander, Woo, Rathbone, Macewen and Lockwood.

Oh yeah, in my scenario I bring Edler back on a 1 year $3.5m contract.


All of that seems reasonable right? It's ~$4m over the cap, with Ferland on LTIR. Ferland on the roster and an $800k to $1m player waived, and they're over $7m over the cap.


Since I don't know how to link a capfriendly lineup:

Miller 5.25 - Petttersson 11.0 - Boeser 5.8
Eriksson 6 - Horvat 5.5 - Hoglander 0.9
Motte 1.2 - Gaudette 1.5 - Virtanen 3.1
MacEwan 0.83 - Beagle 3.0- Roussell 3.0
Lockwood 0.85

Hughes 6.5 - Schmidt 5.9
Edler 3.5 - Myers 6
Rathbone 0.92 - Juolevi 0.8
Woo 0.8 - Rafferty 0.8

Demko 4.7
Hotby 4.3

Ferland LTIR

Remaining cap space: -$3,880,212 That's a minus.

Really nice top end, but it looks like Detroit/Ottaw bottom 6 and bottom pairs.

You also lose 1 player in the expansion draft, could be Holtby or Myers, but more likely a Motte type guy who's replaced with Pod. Rousel/Beagle/LE become much more movable next year with 1 year left. The league will not be in as big a crunch either. I think you are 2 mill to high on EP. I don't think anyone touches 10 in this landscape, but I may be wrong.

 

[4Twenty]

You also lose 1 player in the expansion draft, could be Holtby or Myers, but more likely a Motte type guy who's replaced with Pod. Rousel/Beagle/LE become much more movable next year with 1 year left. The league will not be in as big a crunch either. I think you are 2 mill to high on EP. I don't think anyone touches 10 in this landscape, but I may be wrong.

Yes you hope the new team takes a big huge salary, but I don't see why. I also think they'll take Motte. So you gain $300k in cap space.

If you don't think teams will pay elite superstars $10m+ because of the climate, why would they take 4th liners that get between $3m-$6m on the cap? That's more assets you're going to have to pay to ship them out the door, thus robbing the actual competitive window it appears you're building towards to barely scrape together a lineup in the near term.

None of it will be easy, and it's going to be hard to actually improve on it.

 

[Peter Griffin]

You also need to sign your goalie of the future, I gave him 2 years @ $4.7m

Where’s the justification for this? If he has a Jordan Binnington like season, sure. But if he has a more realistic, Tristan Jarry type season he’s looking at $3-3.5M.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Yes you hope the new team takes a big huge salary, but I don't see why. I also think they'll take Motte. So you gain $300k in cap space.

At this stage, Motte will be protected. Pettersson, Horvat, Miller, Boeser, Virtanen, Gaudette, Motte will be the protected forwards and Virtanen isn’t even a guarantee to be on this year’s roster. If he’s dealt than MacEwen/Lind will be protected. Seattle will have very little of value to select from Vancouver.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Boeser for Gallagher + 2nd.

 

[4Twenty]

Where’s the justification for this? If he has a Jordan Binnington like season, sure. But if he has a more realistic, Tristan Jarry type season he’s looking at $3-3.5M.

Jordan Binnington signed his deal after half a season.

Matt Murray just got $6.25 as an RFA.

$4.7m is in the middle, if he steals the net why would he take less than his backup? He would have arbitration rights.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think it all depends on if they know whether Ferland is LTIRetired and if he is then we could be good, if he isn't then we will probably trade either Baertschi or Sutter closer to the start of the season once people know their cap situations

Ferland they won’t know until the season training camp and pre season. Not an idea time to get under the cap.

when fans were talking about the big 3 of TT, Marky and Tanev at best I figured they could keep 1 at say $5 mill but now they got 2 at $10.2 mill.

just puts them really tight to the cap.

Eriksson if he was straight salary like Schneider the Canucks could buy him out but there is no savings to do that with his contract structure.

 

[4Twenty]

At this stage, Motte will be protected. Pettersson, Horvat, Miller, Boeser, Virtanen, Gaudette, Motte will be the protected forwards and Virtanen isn’t even a guarantee to be on this year’s roster. If he’s dealt than MacEwen/Lind will be protected. Seattle will have very little of value to select from Vancouver.

I'd just claim someone become a UFA a week later then, rather than acquiring a massive salary.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Jordan Binnington signed his deal after half a season.

Putting up insane numbers and backstopping his team to the Cup.

Matt Murray just got $6.25 as an RFA.

3 UFA years and a lot more proven including winning a Cup.

$4.7m is in the middle, if he steals the net why would he take less than his backup? He would have arbitration rights.

Tristan Jarry is the perfect comparable. Braden Holtby is a UFA contract, not a comparable.

 

[StreetHawk]

Jordan Binnington signed his deal after half a season.

Matt Murray just got $6.25 as an RFA.

$4.7m is in the middle, if he steals the net why would he take less than his backup? He would have arbitration rights.

holtby contract would not enter the arbitration discussion. Only binnington, Jarry and co would. We are talking about a shortened nhl season coming up. So only so many starts in a 50 -60 game season.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I'd just claim someone become a UFA a week later then, rather than acquiring a massive salary.

Or maybe the Canucks trade Seattle a pick to take one year of Roussel at $3M?

 

[4Twenty]

holtby contract would not enter the arbitration discussion. Only binnington, Jarry and co would. We are talking about a shortened nhl season coming up. So only so many starts in a 50 -60 game season.

It wouldn't enter the arb discussion, but Murray's $6.25 would....he got that after a 38 start season.

If they want to run Demko's deal to UFA with a short deal that is their perogative. If he wins the net they'll have to pay him. He could be had for 2nd round pick in an offersheet near the $4.7m I projected. Either way, the whole point is, even if you cut it to 3.5, the Canucks are still over the cap with 6-8 league min type players.

 

[4Twenty]

Or maybe the Canucks trade Seattle a pick to take one year of Roussel at $3M?

Yeah it would be unfortunate to be losing another high pick when the team will need those picks when the stars are all paid. That's why I keep saying this isn't an easy task.

You can haggle over a $1m here or there, but at the end of the day they look stuck with some bad contracts in 21/22.

Seattle seeing Vegas' enter the league as a ready made contender, I can't see doing divisional rivals favours by taking guys who can no longer hack it....Roussell's legs are gone already.

 

[Tretyak 20]

As mentioned in the Schmidt trade thread I believe in a normal world, Roussel, Baertschi, Sutter, Beagle should be easy to move, but here it seems every dump is really costly. I however think that teams near capfloor should be open to trading for those guys with the right incentives : let us say Baertschi + 2nd, only 2.4m real dollars for one year, I would do this if I was OTT, maybe it cots a 1st do dump Sutter though. My guess is that buyers are waiting to get higher picks attached

Just remember that as of now only one team is below the cap floor, and they're owned by a notorious cheapskate.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Trade Virtanen for pick(s).

 

[Hookslide]

Trade Virtanen for pick(s).

Virtanan,Gaudette for Clifton, Bjork and 3rd

 

[BCNate]

Yes you hope the new team takes a big huge salary, but I don't see why. I also think they'll take Motte. So you gain $300k in cap space.

If you don't think teams will pay elite superstars $10m+ because of the climate, why would they take 4th liners that get between $3m-$6m on the cap? That's more assets you're going to have to pay to ship them out the door, thus robbing the actual competitive window it appears you're building towards to barely scrape together a lineup in the near term.

None of it will be easy, and it's going to be hard to actually improve on it.

Without splitting hairs, I think most would agree that the Canucks can pretty comfortably fit EP, Demko, Hughes, Edler in. Whether that takes us a little over, or a little under the cap is not worth debating a year out. Even if it's a little over, it is still workable. Improvement will have to come from a our prospects and development of our young guys as we won't have a ton to play with.

Where things do start to get interesting is the following offseason, when Luongo, Holtby, Rousel, Beagle, Louie come off the books. That's 15 million in space with all your core locked in. Boeser is RFA, but won't get a huge increase from his current 6 mil. I think that will be the offseason where our young guys are going to be ready to take a deep run, all our dead money is gone, and we will have a clear understanding of what gaps we need to fill. I genuinely believe that this is when JB sees us as cup contenders, and has avoided long term vet deals and buyouts to give us flexibility to really add. I'm ok with taking a step back this season if that is the plan.

 

[4Twenty]

Without splitting hairs, I think most would agree that the Canucks can pretty comfortably fit EP, Demko, Hughes, Edler in. Whether that takes us a little over, or a little under the cap is not worth debating a year out. Even if it's a little over, it is still workable. Improvement will have to come from a our prospects and development of our young guys as we won't have a ton to play with.

Where things do start to get interesting is the following offseason, when Luongo, Holtby, Rousel, Beagle, Louie come off the books. That's 15 million in space with all your core locked in. Boeser is RFA, but won't get a huge increase from his current 6 mil. I think that will be the offseason where our young guys are going to be ready to take a deep run, all our dead money is gone, and we will have a clear understanding of what gaps we need to fill. I genuinely believe that this is when JB sees us as cup contenders, and has avoided long term vet deals and buyouts to give us flexibility to really add. I'm ok with taking a step back this season if that is the plan.

Yeah, well if you don't want to split hairs, maybe don't say it'll be easy. It won't.

Fitting those players is not the worry, having a contender is. At least you've admitted the bold this time.

Yeah, the following year is nice....but I think you bridged Quinn, so now he needs a bumped deal, Brock's QO is $7.5m and JT and Bo are a year out from FA. Basically 22/23 to 23/24 is the cup window and it's going to be really tight with little ELC push coming.

Im ok taking the step back this season too, but then it doesn't make sense to be taking on over $10m in cap the next two seasons if you planned on a step back. I'm just mad we even have to take a step back. The crap I've complained about for 5 years is coming back to roost and I'm annoyned.

A properly managed team during what should've been a rebuild would be set to be plucking multiple Schmidt level assets from strapped teams, but we're strapped ourselves with no pick surplus and middle of the road prospect group.