Alright one more analytics post for me! I am burning myself out researching like a million different things at once, lol. I think I've had a buildup of projects I've wanted to do the last 5 years that I've just finally had the time to do and now I'm hitting them all. So apologies for the spam.
Upthread I posted data on shot probabilities based on team-strength, shot type and distance-from net. the idea was to quantify the top shooters by making the most out of their shots.
Now, the next step is to apply the same methodology for goalies. Here is the same graph, with goals expressed as a % of shots-on-goal this time:
Since a lot of deflections miss the net, it makes sense that the curve when using SOG as denominator instead of SAT is closer to the regular curve.
Based on this, you can calculate the overall % chance of a shot being stopped and then sum it up for all goalies to get their expected goals allowed vs actual:
(Note my data from tonight's games is still updating so tonight's games are not included. I think Markstrom will be #1 after it's done.
)
| Goalie | Expected Goals | Goals | +/- | Sv% | Exp. Sv% | Sv% +/- | | JOHN GIBSON | 146 | 123 | 23 | 0.914 | 0.898 | 0.016 | | ROBIN LEHNER | 76 | 56 | 20 | 0.932 | 0.907 | 0.025 | | THOMAS GREISS | 76 | 59 | 17 | 0.926 | 0.904 | 0.022 | | BEN BISHOP | 91 | 76 | 15 | 0.924 | 0.909 | 0.015 | | LAURENT BROSSOIT | 41 | 27 | 14 | 0.940 | 0.910 | 0.030 | | JIMMY HOWARD | 108 | 96 | 12 | 0.914 | 0.904 | 0.011 | | COLLIN DELIA | 46 | 34 | 12 | 0.923 | 0.896 | 0.027 | | FREDERIK ANDERSEN | 105 | 94 | 11 | 0.923 | 0.914 | 0.009 | | ANDREI VASILEVSKIY | 88 | 77 | 11 | 0.927 | 0.917 | 0.010 | | JACK CAMPBELL | 44 | 34 | 10 | 0.933 | 0.913 | 0.020 |
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John Gibson is arguably having a very underrated season because of the horrible play of his team. Based on this methodology he has done a better job stopping shots based on the types of shots he's faced and the volume than any other goalie. In fact, he was #1 last year too. His .898 expected save% is among the lowest in the NHL as he has simply had to face a lot of difficult shots.
Collin Delia, who stopped 40-of-43 against the Canucks the other night has also had fantastic results thus far in just 12 games to already be +12.
...trailers...
| Goalie | Expected Goals | Goals | +/- | Sv% | Exp. Sv% | Sv% +/- |
| ALEX STALOCK | 27 | 36 | -9 | 0.891 | 0.918 | -0.027 |
| ROBERTO LUONGO | 65 | 75 | -10 | 0.897 | 0.911 | -0.014 |
| CORY SCHNEIDER | 20 | 30 | -10 | 0.867 | 0.914 | -0.046 |
| ANTTI NIEMI | 43 | 54 | -11 | 0.893 | 0.914 | -0.021 |
| MICHAL NEUVIRTH | 15 | 26 | -11 | 0.859 | 0.917 | -0.058 |
| MIKE SMITH | 66 | 78 | -12 | 0.889 | 0.905 | -0.017 |
| CRAIG ANDERSON | 105 | 117 | -12 | 0.904 | 0.913 | -0.010 |
| PHILIPP GRUBAUER | 57 | 69 | -12 | 0.889 | 0.908 | -0.019 |
| CAM TALBOT | 76 | 90 | -14 | 0.895 | 0.911 | -0.016 |
| KEITH KINKAID | 93 | 111 | -18 | 0.896 | 0.913 | -0.017 |
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Ooof some familiar names there for Canucks fans. Anderson was a disaster for Ottawa as the play of Nilsson has been demonstrating lately. Based on the shots faced he should have had a closer-to-average save%.
Speaking of Nilsson:
| Goalie | | Expected Goals | Goals | +/- | Sv% | Exp. Sv% | Sv% +/- |
| | | | | | | |
| ANDERS NILSSON | VAN | 34 | 37 | -3 | 0.895 | 0.903 | -0.007 |
| ANDERS NILSSON | OTT | 24 | 19 | 5 | 0.934 | 0.916 | 0.018 |
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The guy definitely seemed to have a raw deal in Vancouver, as you can see from the .903 expected save% vs .916 in Ottawa. It isn't a lot of data and not including tonight but supports what
@Jyrki21 was saying about it being as much a change in context as a change in performance as he's seemingly had an easier time in Ottawa thus far.
