Canucks Analytics

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by Bertuzzzi44, Jan 27, 2019.

  1. tantalum

    tantalum Registered User

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    I almost feel bad for Green. I mean he can't put Gudbranson out on the ice with anyone other than the best offensive players or they will get completely buried. I say almost because Gudbranson should be in the press box and Green keeps on trotting him out even when everyone is healthy.
     
  2. Hockeyphysio

    Hockeyphysio Registered User

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    I can see why green keeps Gudbranson and Beagle away from each other, the results are not pretty
     
  3. 420Canuck

    420Canuck Registered User

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    It really shows how Travis feels about Gudbranson that when Edler goes down they move, in Travis' words. "their best defender" to play his offside to baby-sit Mr. 440 NHL games.
     
  4. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    Interesting question and yeah, definitely something I can look into. I will get back to you.

    Here is a followup to some of the data I posted before. I have broken down shots in all kinds of different ways and basically found 4 distinct curves:

    upload_2019-2-8_11-53-51.png

    Some takeaways:

    1) I found basically no difference between shots taken on the PP vs. SH. This was weird to me at first but then made sense when I thought about it. Most shots that are taken while short-handed are high-quality scoring chances. Taken together, the Special Teams curve is different than the ES curve, as you would expect.

    2) The ES And ST curves above are just slapshots, wristshots and snapshots, among which I found basically no difference. Deflections and Backhanders do have a different curve as they have about the same chance of scoring when close but drop off faster as you get further from the net (again, as makes sense.) Deflections and Backhanders drop off at around the same rate. This is the distance of the deflection BTW, not the distance of the original shot. The highest-quality chances are deflections that are close to the net, again as makes sense and as you expect.

    3) Wrap-arounds are the 4th distinct curve, scoring at a much lower rate. They are generally successful 5-10% of the time and the "distance" is kind of a hard thing to describe, but it still seems to be meaningful. Here is an example of a "wrap-around" goal that has a longer distance, if you are curious as I was:

    Even though there is nothing all that surprising here, it is sometimes nice when the data shows what you expect it to!

    Now with 4 curves we can do more precise measurements in terms of calculating the % chance that a shot attempt will be a goal based on the distance, shot type and team-strength. Taken together, guess who leads the league in bettering these percentages?

    PlayerShotsAvg. Distance (ft)Expected GoalsActual Goals+/-
    ELIAS PETTERSSON16031.2310.462514.54
    BRAYDEN POINT21922.7118.853112.15
    LEON DRAISAITL24727.1720.423211.58
    JEFF SKINNER27226.4122.683310.32
    ALEX OVECHKIN43337.0826.853710.15
    ALEX DEBRINCAT26530.218.15289.85
    STEVEN STAMKOS29933.218.85289.15
    JOE PAVELSKI22322.3920.07298.93
    MARK SCHEIFELE22727.518.31278.69
    MIKE HOFFMAN28536.4315.32248.68
     
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  5. Jay Cee

    Jay Cee P4G

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    How do we determine expected goals?
     
  6. Wo Yorfat

    Wo Yorfat dumb person

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    Is guddy uniquely terrible? Are there players around the league as detrimental to teammates performance across the board?
     
  7. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    It's a good question. I suspect not but it's hard to quantify such a thing. I'll see if I can come up with something though because it's interesting and I'm curious too.
     
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  8. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    By the way the worst shooter on the Canucks based on the above methodology, has been Bo Horvat. Based on the shots he's taken, he's expected to have 22-23 goals instead of 18. Is it bad luck or bad shooting?
     
  9. Wo Yorfat

    Wo Yorfat dumb person

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    Might be nothing more than him being 0/8000 lifetime on the ol' jam play.
     
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  10. Norade

    Norade Registered User

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    I think it's more the case that he's not being given the help he needs to produce. He's good but not great at a lot of things and his shooting distance just means he's bulled in and taken a shot, not that he's actually in a good position to score on that shot. He needs wingers able to open up space for him if we want him to score, Baertschi seems to fill that role, but with his injury history, we need to look at signing more reliable help for Bo this offseason.
     
  11. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Hogan’s not a racist. He’s just incredibly selfish and will bury pretty much anyone (outside of his parents and kids) If it worked to his advantage. He’s also incredibly petty. His racial tirade was just him venting frustration over his daughter. If you’re looking for a true racist wrestler however, look no further than Ric Flair and Arn Anderson.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
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  12. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Troy Stecher.

    @Melvin - I’ll have to give you my props here. Great work and research! Also - my hats off to you on your recent interview. Hope you get some good news.

    I’m not going to bury Gudbranson on here because I feel sorry for the guy, but I’ll say this about Stecher. I’ve never been a hardcore “advanced stats” guy, but even the old eye test shows that Stecher has taken a leap in his game. Stecher and Hutton both.

    Glad to see Stecher continuing to own it from an advanced stats perspective and I hope that materializes into more opportunities for him.
     
  13. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    You should become advanced stats guy. That way you don't have to rely on your eye. The eye can be extremely inaccurate.
     
  14. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    I respect the advanced Stats but don’t want to be one of those guys that lives and dies by them. As much as the eyes can be extremely inaccurate, Advanced stats can be quite misleading as well if you don’t take other things into consideration. A well balanced approach is the key.
     
  15. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    Hockey doesn't have any advanced stats, unfortunately. I am really excited about the new tracking technology though.
     
  16. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    Semantics.
     
  17. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    Weve seen pro scouts, who played years in the NHL have zero talent for using their eyes to evaluate talent.

    Definitely use the data over your amateur hockey fan eyes.
     
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  18. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    OK, so here is what I did. It is somewhat complicated and I might not have the right approach so I appreciate feedback, but bear with me while I try to explain.

    This is just using +/- as a first approach, the same technique could be applied to shot attempts or whatever you prefer. Let's not focus on that for now, more on the approach.

    For each player, I took their +/- with other players and compared it to the second player's average +/- (weighted by TOI) when not playing with the first player.

    For example. Ben Hutton when not playing with Gudbranson has a TOI-weighted average +/- of -1 with every other player.

    Then I took that metric and divided by the players ice-time, and multiplied by their ice-time with the "evaluated player" to get an expected +/-. So Ben Hutton, since he has spent about 70% of his TOI with Gudbranson, has an expected "+/-" of -0.70 with Gudbranson. Basically. Then, Gudbranson's "impact" on Hutton is (-19) - (-0.70) = -18.3. Finally, I then applied this to every player to calculate the average impact that Gudbranson has on each player.

    Then, finally, I calculated the "average impact" that every player has on every other player on the team, again weighted by TOI.

    Does that make sense? I know, it's confusing and took me some time to get my head around it.

    Here is the Canucks:

    PlayerAverageImpact
    ERIK GUDBRANSON-6.39
    BRANDON SUTTER-4.09
    BEN HUTTON-3.59
    TYLER MOTTE-2.09
    MARKUS GRANLUND-1.81
    BRENDAN LEIPSIC-1.36
    TIM SCHALLER-1.34
    CHRISTOPHER TANEV-1.07
    LOUI ERIKSSON-0.87
    JAY BEAGLE-0.82
    JAKE VIRTANEN-0.53
    ALEXANDER EDLER-0.37
    ADAM GAUDETTE-0.35
    SVEN BAERTSCHI-0.35
    BO HORVAT-0.11
    ALEX BIEGA0.11
    MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO0.44
    NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN1.01
    ANTOINE ROUSSEL1.22
    DERRICK POULIOT1.51
    TROY STECHER3.17
    JOSH LEIVO3.33
    BROCK BOESER3.43
    ELIAS PETTERSSON5.17
    Pouliot is pretty surprising here, as is Tanev, but it does line up with what we saw from the individual WOWY's, where Gudbranson and Sutter have basically terrible scores with everyone, and Pettersson great scores with everyone, so we accomplished our goal.

    But the question was, is Erik Gudbranson the worst in the NHL? Are there other players who consistently have worse "with" than "without" on their teammates?

    Here is your answer:

    PlayerAverageImpact
    ERIK GUDBRANSON-6.39
    MATT NISKANEN-6.01
    DMITRY ORLOV-5.78
    IVAN PROVOROV-4.99
    MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC-4.27
    MAGNUS PAAJARVI-4.26
    CODY CECI-4.25
    RYAN CARPENTER-4.18
    BRANDON DUBINSKY-4.14
    BRANDON SUTTER-4.09
    So there you have it. At least in terms of goal +/-, nobody consistently has worst +/- with everyone on their team, than their teammates do without.

    Having said that though, this list indicates that this is likely not a perfect approach. Most of these players are not considered terrible players. In fact, Vlasic is often considered elite. Is this just because we are using goal +/- instead of something like shot attempts?

    * EDIT: I removed a table which applies the same methodology to Shot Attempts because I found problems with the Shot Attempt data. I will re-post after I fixed it. *

    Anyway, so this is a work in progress but feel free to let me know what you think.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
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  19. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    I suppose. I guess it's just a pet peeve of mine that "shot attempts" is considered "advanced" just because someone for some stupid reason decided to call it "Corsi."
     
  20. Peter10

    Peter10 Registered User

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    Since you do a sort of "player relative to other players on the team", shouldnt that then be followed up by "team relative to the league (average)"? That should give you the expected result for a player on an average team. However, no real idea how to do that in a way it makes sense.
     
  21. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    But you shouldn't have to, right? If your "expected" is -5 (because your team sucks) and you are actually "only" -2 than your relative impact is +3. So it shouldn't matter how bad your team is.

    Anyway, I found a bigger problem with the shot-attempts data so I removed that data table for now until I figure out what's wrong with it.
     
  22. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    The stats have advanced from +/- etc.

    Its all relative.
     
  23. Peter10

    Peter10 Registered User

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    I meant that to get rid of the "bad team effect" for the shot attempts.
     
  24. Melvin

    Melvin But muh prospect pool! Sponsor

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    Some have, sure,but Corsi is no more "advanced" than +/-. It's the exact same thing, with all shot attempts instead of only ones that are goals.
     
  25. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    Less of a low event stat. Its a step in the right direction.

    I doubt we disagree too much on this.

    We lack a bunch of data compared to sports where collecting it is easier.
     

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