Canucks Analytics

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by Bertuzzzi44, Jan 27, 2019.

  1. sting101

    sting101 Registered User

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    BEN HUTTON (VAN) - 5v5

    WITH ERIK GUDBRANSON
    TOISAT ForSAT AgainstSAT DiffSAT %SOG ForSOG AgainstSOG DiffSOG %Goals ForGoals Against+/-GF %OZ FONZ FODZ FOOZ%
    467:04453608-15542.7252335-8342.931736-1932.0818817619948.58
    WITHOUT ERIK GUDBRANSON
    TOISAT ForSAT AgainstSAT DiffSAT %SOG ForSOG AgainstSOG DiffSOG %Goals ForGoals Against+/-GF %OZ FONZ FODZ FOOZ%
    326:273703581250.82141153-1247.96148663.6474786652.86

    thought this one is pretty funny
     
  2. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    I've updated the WOWY tool to include last season. Now you can do Hutton wow Gudbranson over both years:

    upload_2019-2-2_17-14-34.png

    I will work on going back and probably adding one season per day until I have everything.

    EDIT: Some of the numbers in the above screenshot are incorrect. I have since fixed a couple bugs with the 5v5 data. TOI without Gudbranson is much higher.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2019
  3. IAMGROOT

    IAMGROOT Registered User

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    If Benning was smart he would buy him out this summer as he would be a detriment to the development of Hutton, Hughes and Juolevi. He is a gift for team tank though so, I hope he stays a Canuck.
     
  4. tyhee

    tyhee Registered User

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    Thanks Melvin. Great tool.

    After only about 10 uses, the only issue I've had is that on one occasion it timed out on me after 30 seconds.
     
  5. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    Thanks!

    Yeah the performance was temporarily very bad after I added an entire season's worth of data, but I think I've sorted that out.
     
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  6. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    I've added another page for breaking down the shots attempted by all players. Some examples of things you can look at:

    Troy Stecher leads the team with 43% of his shot attempts being blocked.
    Meanwhile, Roussel has missed the net with 31% of his attempts.
    Edler has taken the most Slapshots; Horvat has attempted a team-leading 7 wrap-arounds.
    Schaller's attempts have come from an average of 25 feet away, which is the nearest on the team; Tanev's are the longest distance attempts with an average of 68 ft.

    NHL Tools

    Still just the tip of the iceberg really. There is still so much potential in terms of things to look at and add. Really excited to finally have the time to put stuff like this together.
     
  7. Ronning On Empty

    Ronning On Empty Formerly BleachClean

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    Where are you getting the data for this? CSV files?

    Hutton vs. Pouliot numbers amuse me.
     
  8. HankNDank

    HankNDank Registered User

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    Bo Horvat with Gudbranson - 36.4% GF%
    Bo Horvat without Gudbranson - 55.6 GF%

    Elias Pettersson with Gudbranson - 47.1 GF%
    Elias Pettersson without Gudbranson - 67.5 GF%

    Gudbranson can even turn the almighty Pettersson into an average hockey player.
     
  9. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    I get it straight from the NHL.com game reports, e.g. Play By Play
     
  10. 420Canuck

    420Canuck Conversion software, version 7.0

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    Why wouldn't you just use naturalstattrick.com, the works already done.
     
  11. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    That's a good attitude. Your handle checks out.

    I'm not going to steal their work.
     
  12. 420Canuck

    420Canuck Conversion software, version 7.0

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    I don't get it?

    You can look at with and without stats right on their page.
     
  13. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    First of all, I didn't know that. Never could find WOWY stats on their page.

    Second of all, I want the raw data for my own purposes. That I quickly threw a website around it so that other people could look at it is just a by product.

    Anyway, it's always good to have secondary sources for cross-validation. If you don't like it don't use it. [MOD]
     
    Last edited by moderator Ronning On Empty: Feb 4, 2019
  14. 420Canuck

    420Canuck Conversion software, version 7.0

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    You must be having a bad day to suggest I was being a dick about anything. Chill out my man.

    You do good work, I appreciate it, I just thought suggesting a public site would be welcome to you. I'm not diminishing what you're doing.

    Nor do I see any way which anyone could deem my post as being a dick.....you're being overly sensitive.

    I literally clicked on the thread, first post I saw was you or someone lamenting a lack of with/without stats. I thought pointing out naturalstattrick has the info you missed was a positive, [MOD]
     
    Last edited by moderator Ronning On Empty: Feb 4, 2019
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  15. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    Sorry. You're right, I am in a bad mood. It's my birthday and I'm super hungover and irritated.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
  16. 420Canuck

    420Canuck Conversion software, version 7.0

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    Happy Birthday.
     
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  17. Ronning On Empty

    Ronning On Empty Formerly BleachClean

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    How are you grabbing and parsing this information? Do you use a script + SQL + Dbase?


    ------------------------------------------





    Also:

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    Yeah I wrote some parsers in Python and I have a database in Azure
     
  19. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    I thought this might be interesting.

    Take each team's goal +/- at 5v5 by the total amount of minutes played per player. Then you can determine the "expected" +/- of the player given the team for whom he's played and how many minutes. Then you can look at a player's actual +/- to give you a more context-neutral way of looking at goals on the ice for. Not perfect for a whole plethora of obvious reasons but does make a bit more sense than raw +/-.

    So for example Troy Stecher's +14 at 5v5(*) doesn't look like anything special, but given his minutes and team, and his expected +/- is actually -2, so his +16 "adjusted +/-" actually ranks him 10th in the NHL among all players, and 3rd among defenders. I dunno, I think it's interesting.

    MinutesExpected +/-Actual +/-Adjust +/-
    PITSIDNEY CROSBY80073124
    OTTMARK STONE818-91322
    OTTDYLAN DEMELO764-91221
    DALTYLER SEGUIN827-11819
    BUFJEFF SKINNER776-11718
    CARSEBASTIAN AHO754-11718
    COLMIKKO RANTANEN870-21416
    MINERIC STAAL720-21416
    S.JBRENDEN DILLON80511716
    VANTROY STECHER739-21416


    Just thought I'd share.

    (*) Can we talk about the fact that Stecher has spent 50 minutes killing penalties, allowed just one goal and been on the ice for 2 shorties? Like he's a +1 in short-handed situations! Anyway.

    A confession: I am not completely sold on using on-ice shot data exclusively for evaluations. I think there is still value in looking at goals. As a data professional who has been doing analytics in various industries for the past 10 years, I find it very frustrating that "analytics" in hockey has become synonymous with on-ice shot attempts (stupidly called "corsi") which is just a metric and not all-encompassing of all analytics (which just means to study data.) I think that a lot of people have made the mistake of assuming certain correlations without sufficiently evidencing it and it kind of drives me nuts sometimes. Rant over.

    Oh, and because I'm sure you weree wondering:

    CBJBRANDON DUBINSKY3900-15-15
    VANERIK GUDBRANSON729-2-21-19
    WSHMATT NISKANEN8545-15-20
    WSHDMITRY ORLOV8925-16-21
    PITJACK JOHNSON8007-15-22
     
  20. Phenomenon13

    Phenomenon13 Registered User

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    Sounds perfect for our tanking :naughty:
     
  21. Melvin

    Melvin Yes.

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    Been playing lately with shot distance data. If you look at how often goals are scored on attempts based on their distance from the net it looks like this:

    upload_2019-2-6_7-1-25.png

    Nothing too surprising of course; the further from the net you are, the less likely your shot is going to be a goal.

    What I like about it is that it allows us to look at from where players take their shots and grade them in terms of how often they score vs. how often all players score from that distance. This shows us who the best shooters are in terms of converting on shots from distances.

    Unsurprisingly, Elias Pettersson is top-5 in the NHL in this regard, and Boeser just outside the top-10:

    PlayerUnblocked ShotsAvg. Distance (ft.)GoalsExp. Goals+/-
    ALEX OVECHKIN16832.582211.1110.89
    JOHN TAVARES17623.952414.459.55
    LEON DRAISAITL11129.24188.509.50
    JAKE GUENTZEL15526.832111.899.11
    ELIAS PETTERSSON7529.36145.468.54
    JEFF SKINNER15428.062011.918.09
    VIKTOR ARVIDSSON11529.12168.477.53
    RYAN DZINGEL11227.79168.687.32
    STEVEN STAMKOS12232.1157.747.26
    CAM ATKINSON18333.451911.957.05
    BROCK BOESER9235.05125.576.43

    Tavares is expected to have more goals than OV because he tends to take shots from closer. Both OV and Boeser average 30+ feet on their shots whereas guys like Tavares and Guentzel tend to shoot from closer. EP40 on the other hand has only made 75 attempts and is expected to only have around 5 goals but instead has 14 (at 5v5.)

    In terms of how all the Canucks score, it looks like this:

    PlayerUnblocked ShotsAvg. Distance (ft.)GoalsExp. Goals+/-
    ELIAS PETTERSSON7529.36145.468.54
    BROCK BOESER9235.05125.576.43
    SVEN BAERTSCHI3522.2353.161.84
    JOSH LEIVO4828.4653.581.42
    BRENDAN GAUNCE233.510.110.89
    LOUI ERIKSSON8427.7776.320.68
    ADAM GAUDETTE3633.3132.440.56
    BEN HUTTON9355.9532.470.53
    MARKUS GRANLUND7831.4265.680.32
    DARREN ARCHIBALD934.8910.700.30
    ALEXANDER EDLER8062.7121.720.28
    BRENDAN LEIPSIC3138.5821.770.23
    JAKE VIRTANEN13532.2798.940.06
    CHRISTOPHER TANEV5264.7711.05-0.05
    ERIK GUDBRANSON8557.0922.28-0.28
    MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO3449.5311.39-0.39
    BRANDON SUTTER393322.55-0.55
    NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN8330.2755.73-0.73
    ANTOINE ROUSSEL8134.0255.76-0.76
    BO HORVAT14127.661010.98-0.98
    DERRICK POULIOT6550.0312.22-1.22
    SAM GAGNER1928.9501.43-1.43
    TROY STECHER7550.2512.47-1.47
    ALEX BIEGA455401.56-1.56
    TYLER MOTTE8834.445.84-1.84
    JAY BEAGLE2425.5801.97-1.97
    TIM SCHALLER3824.3703.14-3.14

    This is all 5v5; I haven't look into any PP data yet to see if the curve is any different. That's probably next.
     
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  22. Hockeyphysio

    Hockeyphysio Registered User

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    Awesome Melvin really enjoying it.
     
  23. Peter10

    Peter10 Registered User

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    This is pretty good stuff Melvin!
     
  24. Jay Cee

    Jay Cee P4G

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    Thanks for the work Melvin. It's interesting to see a big picture view of things instead of cherry picking a couple of stats and saying they are the be all and end all of hockey.
     
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  25. Norade

    Norade Registered User

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    I wonder if there's any way to extract data about both shots that go in as well as shots that generate additional scoring chances (ie. a shot and a rebound). I think some shooters that aren't skilled enough to beat a goalie clean must be better at generating second chances with their shot than others. From there you could generate an expected value per shot and track players by that metric, find out who actually turns shot attempts into points, and who just shoots uselessly generating 'possession stats' but not actually creating value.

    It might turn out that finding what I'll dub 'shooting playmakers' is a way to further identify high-value players via stats.
     

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