TSN: Canadiens leaning a lot, maybe too much, on Price

[Bourne Endeavor]

How long will corsi/fenwick/advanced stats people bandy around their ultimate victory over leafs fans ?

I don't care about the maple leafs. If you had asked me if the leafs were a good team I would have told you that they weren't. I never needed any numbers to tell me that. Joke team run terribly. If the leafs are the ultimate victory of advanced stats... then it is not much of one.

So your rebuttal to advance stats being proven correct is essentially "lalalalala HABS ARE AWESOME"? No offense, but if you're going to disagree — which is perfectly fine given advanced stats do not tell the whole story — at least try and offer something verifiable beyond your opinion.

 

[Dannyhab]

Of course we rely on him. I see it as a big problem if we are to make a deep playoff run. We need to shore up defense and tighten up our top 6 otherwise we risk an early exit this year. Price is amazing but one guy shouldn't have to carry his whole team if the team is properly balanced.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

So your rebuttal to advance stats being proven correct is essentially "lalalalala HABS ARE AWESOME"? No offense, but if you're going to disagree — which is perfectly fine given advanced stats do not tell the whole story — at least try and offer something verifiable beyond your opinion.

I'll refer you to multiple posts i have made in the past, including at the start of the newest Therrien thread. There are many reasons why and I have discussed them ad nauseum.

 

[rafal majka]

That's an awesome article. Forgeting the Corsi and just looking at Scoring Chances, the Habs do not come close to competing with TB, Det, NYI and Pit.

...relative to some of the other great teams in the East (the Habs are underwhelming). Teams have out-chanced and outshot the Habs all season long.
On the other hand, Detroit, New York, and Tampa Bay have all been crushing their opposition in terms of territorial control, and Pittsburgh isn't too far behind on that front.

Perfectly true. The Habs are brutal in generating scoring chances and it's all on Therrien and his reliance on dump-and-chase.

 

[dutchy29]

the style is a bit of a collapse, it allows ++ shots on goal but not always high quality, I think we do limit breakaways, 2 on 1, 3 on 2. etc. These are the highest scoring chances. I think this system fits well when a team has an above average goalie.
The habs then depend more on turnovers and transition to score.
I think the same goes for almost anything, it you try something and it doesn't work then change strategy but the Habs have been consistent all year. slow starts, finish strong collapse and fore check with dump and chase and use speed to transition, its been working and I think that's why we still see it. do we get out shot most nights? yeah but if we are winning....and not just against poor teams but also beating some of the better teams, ie. Kings. Pens, Detroit, then why fix it?

A quick edit....There is always an exception to the rule too. Yes the Habs are the exception to the rule in terms of shot differential this season, we are 24th in the league, and on average a -2.8 (the leafs are -4.4)
But in the the top 10 is Carolina at 10th +1.8 and Minnesota is +5.2, 3rd overall. The stats just can't tell the whole story.

 

[groovejuice]

I'll refer you to multiple posts i have made in the past, including at the start of the newest Therrien thread. There are many reasons why and I have discussed them ad nauseum.

The problem seems that you aren't distinguishing the results from the underlying play. This allows you, in your mind, to dismiss the statistical analyses.

In a narrow minded world, wins and losses are everything. Every NHL team is using some form of statistical analysis. If the very best hockey people know them them to be valuable, what does that say about your personal disdain for them?

Repeated analysis of minutiae over many games and a long period of time have yielded incontrovertible connections between success and style of play. This is indisputable. This does not exclude the outliers. There will always be the teams that flips heads on the coin 30 consecutive times. These are the Leafs. They do it to start every season. Yet, eventually, the odds even out.

The earth isn't flat. There is global warming. Science and statistics and mathematics have demonstrated with perfect clarity that ideas revulsive to many, are actually at the vanguard of thinking. Eventually, of course, they become part of what's accepted as fact.

You and others here talk about the eye test. If the best hockey minds in professional hockey are saying this is valuable, how does your ego allow you to doubt it?

Their eyes are certainly better than yours and mine.

 

[Markov4Captain]

What's being asked of Price is somewhat unfair but because he's as good as he is, we've come to expect it. Therrien is currently being carried by three players: Price, Subban and Pacioretty. An prolonged injury to any of these three players and I think our team gets badly exposed. Price should be taking our team from "good" to "great". Right now he's taking us from "meh" to "average".

Idk, I'm just not buying the record we have. For us to be outshout that badly against Nashville has just become the norm. We never control the pal properly and the way some of our players are being used is mind-boggling. Price masks a lot of these issues but it doesn't make sense that we don't have a consistent scorer other than Pacioretty. Good thing is I think this team can become great with a new system. I just don't think we'll be seeing that anytime soon.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

The problem seems that you aren't distinguishing the results from the underlying play. This allows you, in your mind, to dismiss the statistical analyses.

In a narrow minded world, wins and losses are everything. Every NHL team is using some form of statistical analysis. If the very best hockey people know them them to be valuable, what does that say about your personal disdain for them?

Repeated analysis of minutiae over many games and a long period of time have yielded incontrovertible connections between success and style of play. This is indisputable. This does not exclude the outliers. There will always be the teams that flips heads on the coin 30 consecutive times. These are the Leafs. They do it to start every season. Yet, eventually, the odds even out.

The earth isn't flat. There is global warming. Science and statistics and mathematics have demonstrated with perfect clarity that ideas revulsive to many, are actually at the vanguard of thinking. Eventually, of course, they become part of what's accepted as fact.

You and others here talk about the eye test. If the best hockey minds in professional hockey are saying this is valuable, how does your ego allow you to doubt it?

Their eyes are certainly better than yours and mine.

I love how you equated publicly available "advanced" stats with the earth not being flat. As if they were even remotely along the same lines. The insertion of global warming to try to pass me off as even more of a lunatic was also well done. It speaks of how close minded you are for thinking I'm an idiot for not having the same opinion that you have.

I'd personally equate Corsi and Fenwick with Democritus' atomic model. A baby step in the right direction, but still pretty far off.

As for hockey teams, the habs say they do not use stats to analyze their own play, only that of others. The stats that I have seen so far do not replace the eye test. The might support it a little.. sometimes.

A lot of teams have their own stats not available to the public. Perhaps those are better, I don't know. But I have yet to see one that does it better than the eye test, my eye test. You're welcome to disagree. I won't think you're an idiot for thinking Corsi/Fenwick are more accurate depictions of the level of play of every team than their actual record.

 

[groovejuice]

I love how you equated publicly available "advanced" stats with the earth not being flat. As if they were even remotely along the same lines. The insertion of global warming to try to pass me off as even more of a lunatic was also well done. It speaks of how close minded you are for thinking I'm an idiot for not having the same opinion that you have.

I'd personally equate Corsi and Fenwick with Democritus' atomic model. A baby step in the right direction, but still pretty far off.

As for hockey teams, the habs say they do not use stats to analyze their own play, only that of others. The stats that I have seen so far do not replace the eye test. The might support it a little.. sometimes.

A lot of teams have their own stats not available to the public. Perhaps those are better, I don't know. But I have yet to see one that does it better than the eye test, my eye test. You're welcome to disagree. I won't think you're an idiot for thinking Corsi/Fenwick are more accurate depictions of the level of play of every team than their actual record.

No one is discounting the eye test. Analytics are an adjunct to the eye test.

Your attempt to link Democritus with hockey analytics is laughable. The science of statistics had been evolving for hundreds of years. It's not new. It's only new as it's also been found to be relevant to professional sports. Nevertheless, the underlying mathematics are not in question.

I don't believe you're a lunatic. Quite the opposite. You're an intelligent poster. But you're also unable to evolve your opinion despite a plethora of evidence.

You're an egoistic who cannot ever capitulate or find a commonality or an intellectual compromise. It's quite sad. You'd be a candidate for HOF rather than an antagonistic, unrelenting SOB.

At least you're not ******** on Carey Price.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Why are there still people who have an axe to grind with Price? I can't believe some of the posts in this thread.

 

[Chacal667]

Hmm. At 5-on-5 this year:

Detroit:
Tatar 13-6-19
Zetterberg 6-12-18
Total 19-18-37

Pitt:
Crosby 8-18-26
Malkin 9-18-27
Total 17-36-53

NYI:
Strome 7-20-27
Okposo 10-18-28
Total 17-38-55

Us:
Pacioretty 15-11-26
Gallagher 11-10-21
Total 26-21-47

So our top two point-producers have better totals than Detroit's, and more goals than either Pittsburgh's or the Islanders'.

Try again.

But yeah, Tampa Bay whoops our ass:

Johnson 11-23-34
Kucherov 14-17-31
Palat 6-21-27
Stamkos 17-9-26

Four of the league's top 20 scorers at even strength this season. No wonder they've lit us up for 11 goals in our two games.

We don't care about 5 on 5....... in your mind, crosby, malkin, giroux, toews, etc, etc... arent better players than our players ???

Typical habs fans, seriously it's getting ridiculous at some point that it is embarassing to discuss about that with you.

 

[optimus2861]

We don't care about 5 on 5....... in your mind, crosby, malkin, giroux, toews, etc, etc... arent better players than our players ???

Crosby & Malkin are indisputably two of the very best hockey players in the world. You didn't bring up Giroux or Toews, so rather than accuse you of shifting the goalposts I'll dig up the numbers for the top pair of scorers on Philly & the Hawks:

Philadelphia:
Voracek 8-20-28
Grioux 7-15-22
Total 15-35-50

Chicago:
Kane 14-12-26
Toews 7-18-25
Total 21-30-51

So, again, our top two guys are not that far off some of the league's acknowledged best players. Pacioretty again has more goals than any of them, even Patrick Kane.

Why is it so hard to acknowledge that we have very, very good talent at our disposal here? Pacioretty is at this point an indisputable first-line NHL winger, one of the league's very best goal-scorers (currently tied for 5th in 5-on-5 goal scoring). He is exactly the type of player a team needs in order to contend for a Stanley Cup.

The continual whining from some people that Oh, our guys ain't good enough, this team ain't good enough, go look at players xyz on teams abc, our guys don't stack up to them, is misguided. This team is closer to being a legitimate Stanley Cup threat than at any time since 1993. Our window of contention is opening now. We have to maximize what we're getting out of this roster, and that means we have to stop playing such crappy hockey too much of the time and relying on our goaltender to bail us out time & time again.

 

[Gamimenos]

Why are there still people who have an axe to grind with Price? I can't believe some of the posts in this thread.

He was selected over their lord and savior, back in the old testament.

 

[Blind Gardien]

At least we have Price to lean on.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He was selected over their lord and savior, back in the old testament.

They're still out there. They're a lot quieter now but they're still there... waiting for the opportunity to strike.

 

[Hackett]

At least we have Price to lean on.

Pacioretty noted that the team may have too much confidence in price when talking about the slow starts.

The team does usually require price to be exceptional, and yeah, its nice to have pricer to lean on.

Having said that, buffalo almost leaned on hasek all the way to the stanley cup (when Brett hull scored the controversial winner). Same with the ducks and giguere in 2003, and kiprusoff in 2004.

The way pricer is going, just maybe he can allow all the leaning to work without knocking him over. But of course, I hope the habs can pick up their form and solve the slow start syndrome when/if its time to hit the dancefloor.

 

[Nynja*]

Has an inferior team that leaned on exceptional goaltending ever won the cup?

 

[Jigger77]

Has an inferior team that leaned on exceptional goaltending ever won the cup?

Yes the team you cheer for. The last two.

 

[Hackett]

Has an inferior team that leaned on exceptional goaltending ever won the cup?

Some may argue Carolina in 2006, but I thought they caught a lot of other breaks that year, namely key injuries to opposing teams.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

You're an egoistic who cannot ever capitulate or find a commonality or an intellectual compromise. It's quite sad. You'd be a candidate for HOF rather than an antagonistic, unrelenting SOB.

It's egoist.. Egoistic is the quality of someone who is selfish, while egoist is the noun. You can be egoistic, or you can be an egoist. I suspect what you truly meant is egotist however, although considering how agitated you sounded in your post, who knows what was going on in that head of yours.

Also, I must say it is quite humorous that you called me antagonistic when you are the one who compared my views to thinking the earth is flat. I would say I answered that insult in a very level headed manner, and then you proceeded with these ad hominem attacks. I wonder who is the antagonistic SOB here.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Some may argue Carolina in 2006, but I thought they caught a lot of other breaks that year, namely key injuries to opposing teams.

I was looking into past teams like Carolina and Tampa. Both actually had pretty good shot totals which surprised me. Tampa was actually near the top of the league in shot differentials.

Boston looks like the weakest one in most recent memory anyway. If Hasek had succeeded that would've been THE miracle win.

 

[Nynja*]

Yes the team you cheer for. The last two.

so 2 cups in ~ 30 years?
Thats not a good success rate.

Meanwhile that "possession" game seems to have won 3 in 3 years

Want to ask Giguere how good relying on your goaltender works?

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Yes the team you cheer for. The last two.

Except that's completely wrong. The 86 and 93 teams were both quite strong outside goaltending. People forget how good those teams were because they paled in comparison to the earlier powerhouses.

There is a pretty good argument to be made that the 93 team could have won against the teams they with average goaltending, none of the Montreal's skaters weren't outplayed in any of the series. It was Roy's brilliance that let them cruise to a 16-5 record.

Little known fact, from 1986 to 1993 Montreal had the best regular season record in the NHL (tied with Calgary). The Roy era team was the most consistently good franchise of its time.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yes the team you cheer for. The last two.

As TTGP has pointed out, this is completely wrong. Same with Tampa and even Carolina. They were all good teams.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

Except that's completely wrong. The 86 and 93 teams were both quite strong outside goaltending. People forget how good those teams were because they paled in comparison to the earlier powerhouses.

There is a pretty good argument to be made that the 93 team could have won against the teams they with average goaltending, none of the Montreal's skaters weren't outplayed in any of the series. It was Roy's brilliance that let them cruise to 16-5

I'd say that the 93 team was quite comparable to ours in terms of how good it was compared to the rest of the league. They weren't the best, but they were up there. Just like our habs.

But for a team like the 93 habs... and the '15 habs... things have to go right and you need some luck and godly goaltending to win. It's a given. If Price sucks, or if he gets injured, or if we're unlucky, or if Subban/patch aren't at their best.. and if support players don't play above their normal levels.. then forget it we ain't winning the cup this season with or without Therrien. But I do believe that Therrien has been really good at getting the other variables to line up for us the right way so far. I have no doubt we will show up and play hard in the playoffs again this season.