Canada's pandemic prep part 2 [MOD Note in Post #327]

[Treb]

The real danger of this virus is that infected people can readily transmit it for days before they show symptoms. As more and more Coronavirus cases pop up across the provinces with exponentially increasing regularity, we need to consider the real potential of a nation-wide epidemic. Our society will not permit a quarantine like China implemented to restrict cases to a relatively small area, and that is already moot given how the cases are so widely dispersed.

I was forwarded the following message by a physician friend of mine, and I am truly shaken by it. This is not meant to be any kind of doomsday declaration, just a frank explanation of the situation we find ourselves in. Awareness and factual knowledge is essential in these times.

“There are 3170 ICU beds in Canada. That’s all for critical care.

At least 5% of people who get COVID-19 will require mechanical ventilation. ICUs in Canada run at 100% capacity

At least 10% of people who get COVID-19 require hospitalization for assistive breathing measures. Once again hospitals in Canada run at 100% capacity.

Slowing down the viral spread is what’s needed to save as many people as possible so that our doctors don’t have to tell patients we don’t have a ventilator for you. Measures such as social distancing are important and impossible with travel. Please consider the vulnerable people in our communities and their families.

The goal is to reduce the rapidity of transmission by social distancing.
If you can imagine 500 people gather and a 100 contract the virus all at once then 10 people go on to hospitalization all at once and 5 people are ventilated. Also 100 people go on to infect family members etc all at once.

With social distancing it slows transmission so that people get it more slowly and the health care system can accommodate those infected who need care.

I totally understand the idea that “I’m young and healthy I won’t need a bed” but it doesn’t just effect the person travelling it affects the community health care resource for everyone in that community. You can not follow social distancing in a plane or a cruise ship.

Every little bit helps.

Consider for a moment that there are 37,000,000 people in Canada. Experts estimate that 30%-70% of the Canadian population will get this virus because nobody is immune. Even if you assume 30% that means 11,000,000 infected and ultimately 555,000 requiring ventilation. Recovery takes weeks. Even if we take the 3170 ICU beds and assign all of them to COVID patients think about what that means for how slow we want this to spread.”

Mod Note: Folks, this thread is about Canadian preparation for the pandemic. It is not a general debate about healthcare policy, and it is definitely not a "my dad can beat up your dad" debate about Canada versus the US. That tangent is being shut down and will cease forthwith. Thanks.

Click to read more...

 

[I am toxic]

I highlighted what is the political reason behind this. If they don't test but people are hopeful and not screaming about testing, it's a win....for politicians. But epic fail for the general populace that don't know if they are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic and become spreaders.

Worse, the CBC and CTV take it as "truth" and claim look how great they are doing, but in truth, that is a lie.

To me, it's a misrepresentation and dangerous so I wont let politicians spin it out.

Vancouver, where the vast majority of the population resides, is following the health recommendations very well, and has been for a couple of weeks. Many here started far earlier than the recommendations (we have a large asian community that was on top of this in January, we had our first case in late January and ime everyone started washing hands like crazy at that point - organizations were sending out emails to remind people of hand washing etc.)

So regardless of testing, people are acting as though anyone could be asymptomatic. Regardless of recorded cases.

And recorded cases/testing is still just a fraction of the population, so better to just act as though others have it and are asymptomatic.

Because BC releases the hospital data daily, we can see what is happening with hard, meaningful numbers. If the hospitalization/deaths numbers start to go up, then people will get upset about the approach to testing. But right now we are simply relieved that the numbers remain relatively low, and that when a cluster breaks out, targeted testing is done.

Also, once we are well on the down-curve in BC, then the approach to testing will no doubt get greater attention from the public.​

 

[Wall of Wonder]

British Columbia with 45 new cases today and 5 deaths

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/april-8-bc-update-1.5526810

 

[I am toxic]

British Columbia with 45 new cases today and 5 deaths

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/april-8-bc-update-1.5526810

Hospitalizations at net 2 new admissions (3 fewer in total down to 135, but 5 deaths).

 

[HockeyAddict]

Canadian model estimates b/w 22,500 to 32,000 cases and b/w 500 - 700 deaths within a week. I'm a little confused since the worldometer website indicates that Canada already has 20,000 cases - I guess these numbers are new cases and deaths within the next week? Overall, we seem to be trending quite well comparative to other countries.

edit: These numbers are only for the next week... overall death projections are b/w 11,000 to 300,000 deaths.

 

[llamateizer]

Canadian model estimates b/w 22,500 to 32,000 cases and b/w 500 - 700 deaths within a week. I'm a little confused since the worldometer website indicates that Canada already has 20,000 cases - I guess these numbers are new cases and deaths within the next week? Overall, we seem to be trending quite well comparative to other countries.

It's not clear. but it's new cases.

 

[42]

This article is a very good summary of how Canadian government screwed up big time in their response to the pandemic. Absolutely inexcusable to be so ignorant and/or short-sighted.
Ottawa had a playbook for a coronavirus-like pandemic 14 years ago. What went wrong?

SARS was seen as a wakeup call. The next outbreak to test Canada’s health-care system could be much worse, so a team of medical experts began drafting a playbook. It was intended to form the basis of the country’s future pandemic preparedness, but it reads like a play-by-play of COVID-19.

“The next pandemic will first emerge outside of Canada,” the 550-page document predicted. The virus “will be present in Canada within 3 months after it emerges in another part of the world, but it could be much sooner because of the volume and speed of global air travel.”


The report assumed that 70 per cent of the population would be infected over the course of the pandemic, but only 15 to 35 per cent of Canadians would exhibit signs of illness, such as coughing and fever. There would be a “relatively high rate” of infection even from patients who displayed no symptoms.

“A pandemic wave will sweep across Canada in 1-2 months affecting multiple locations simultaneously. This is based on analysis of the spread of past pandemics,” the report said, including the 1918 Spanish flu, which raced across Canada as soldiers travelling by train returned from the First World War.

“The first peak of illness could occur within 2 to 4 months after the virus arrives in Canada. The first peak in mortality is expected to be approximately 1 month after the peak in illness,” the report said, projecting there would likely be two or more waves of the pandemic, each lasting 6 to 8 weeks.


Given the threat of multiple waves, the document called for the Canadian government to stockpile everything from ventilators to N95 respirator masks, gowns, gloves and face shields. “There will be shortages of the materials and supplies needed during the pandemic period,” the officials concluded. Therefore “a consistent 16-week supply (i.e. two pandemic waves)” was the minimum needed.

It added: “The government does not have control over when this will occur.”


As hospital workers have learned in recent weeks, those key warnings were never heeded. As SARS faded into history, so too did the anxiety over a deadly outbreak.

But the dire shortages at hospitals during this pandemic – ranging from basic items such as masks to testing equipment and ventilators – has shaken the medical system. Dr. Gill works at hospitals in Brampton and Milton, which she said are straining to the breaking point in normal times. She said her colleagues are now scared, and many don’t believe the government’s figures on the number of people infected, partly because the ability of COVID-19 to be transmitted without symptoms has been so underestimated, contrary to what the 2006 report warned against.


“They are only testing symptomatic people – and it’s asymptomatic people who can be the vectors. The health-care professionals could be those people, in any health-care setting,” Dr. Gill said.

She attributed the lack of widespread, uniform testing and shortages of protective equipment to a failure by Ottawa to act quickly and decisively when it first learned of the virus.


“There should have been a cohesive response,” Dr. Gill said, speaking on behalf of doctors in her organization who are disappointed in how the virus was handled early on. “We had many, many weeks that the government squandered.”

 

[I am toxic]

This article is a very good summary of how Canadian government screwed up big time in their response to the pandemic. Absolutely inexcusable to be so ignorant and/or short-sighted.
Ottawa had a playbook for a coronavirus-like pandemic 14 years ago. What went wrong?

SARS was seen as a wakeup call. The next outbreak to test Canada’s health-care system could be much worse, so a team of medical experts began drafting a playbook. It was intended to form the basis of the country’s future pandemic preparedness, but it reads like a play-by-play of COVID-19.

“The next pandemic will first emerge outside of Canada,” the 550-page document predicted. The virus “will be present in Canada within 3 months after it emerges in another part of the world, but it could be much sooner because of the volume and speed of global air travel.”


The report assumed that 70 per cent of the population would be infected over the course of the pandemic, but only 15 to 35 per cent of Canadians would exhibit signs of illness, such as coughing and fever. There would be a “relatively high rate” of infection even from patients who displayed no symptoms.

“A pandemic wave will sweep across Canada in 1-2 months affecting multiple locations simultaneously. This is based on analysis of the spread of past pandemics,” the report said, including the 1918 Spanish flu, which raced across Canada as soldiers travelling by train returned from the First World War.

“The first peak of illness could occur within 2 to 4 months after the virus arrives in Canada. The first peak in mortality is expected to be approximately 1 month after the peak in illness,” the report said, projecting there would likely be two or more waves of the pandemic, each lasting 6 to 8 weeks.


Given the threat of multiple waves, the document called for the Canadian government to stockpile everything from ventilators to N95 respirator masks, gowns, gloves and face shields. “There will be shortages of the materials and supplies needed during the pandemic period,” the officials concluded. Therefore “a consistent 16-week supply (i.e. two pandemic waves)” was the minimum needed.

It added: “The government does not have control over when this will occur.”


As hospital workers have learned in recent weeks, those key warnings were never heeded. As SARS faded into history, so too did the anxiety over a deadly outbreak.

But the dire shortages at hospitals during this pandemic – ranging from basic items such as masks to testing equipment and ventilators – has shaken the medical system. Dr. Gill works at hospitals in Brampton and Milton, which she said are straining to the breaking point in normal times. She said her colleagues are now scared, and many don’t believe the government’s figures on the number of people infected, partly because the ability of COVID-19 to be transmitted without symptoms has been so underestimated, contrary to what the 2006 report warned against.


“They are only testing symptomatic people – and it’s asymptomatic people who can be the vectors. The health-care professionals could be those people, in any health-care setting,” Dr. Gill said.

She attributed the lack of widespread, uniform testing and shortages of protective equipment to a failure by Ottawa to act quickly and decisively when it first learned of the virus.


“There should have been a cohesive response,” Dr. Gill said, speaking on behalf of doctors in her organization who are disappointed in how the virus was handled early on. “We had many, many weeks that the government squandered.”

Unforgivable.

 

[Wall of Wonder]

34 new cases for British Columbia.
B.C.’s coronavirus death toll hits 50 as cases mount in long-term care homes

 

[I am toxic]

34 new cases for British Columbia.
B.C.’s coronavirus death toll hits 50 as cases mount in long-term care homes

Hospitalizations down net 1. Unfortunately net 9 went into critical, while 2 passed away.

My g-i-l's care home was declared covid free on the 6th, and it look's like another care home was declared covid free today or yesterday.

Problem is a lot of people were returning a couple weeks ago from spring break vacations they were advised against, or returning home in the face of the pandemic. Depending on how closely they followed isolation guidelines it may turn out ok, but based on what I have personally seen . . .

 

[xtra]

This article is a very good summary of how Canadian government screwed up big time in their response to the pandemic. Absolutely inexcusable to be so ignorant and/or short-sighted.
Ottawa had a playbook for a coronavirus-like pandemic 14 years ago. What went wrong?

SARS was seen as a wakeup call. The next outbreak to test Canada’s health-care system could be much worse, so a team of medical experts began drafting a playbook. It was intended to form the basis of the country’s future pandemic preparedness, but it reads like a play-by-play of COVID-19.

“The next pandemic will first emerge outside of Canada,” the 550-page document predicted. The virus “will be present in Canada within 3 months after it emerges in another part of the world, but it could be much sooner because of the volume and speed of global air travel.”


The report assumed that 70 per cent of the population would be infected over the course of the pandemic, but only 15 to 35 per cent of Canadians would exhibit signs of illness, such as coughing and fever. There would be a “relatively high rate” of infection even from patients who displayed no symptoms.

“A pandemic wave will sweep across Canada in 1-2 months affecting multiple locations simultaneously. This is based on analysis of the spread of past pandemics,” the report said, including the 1918 Spanish flu, which raced across Canada as soldiers travelling by train returned from the First World War.

“The first peak of illness could occur within 2 to 4 months after the virus arrives in Canada. The first peak in mortality is expected to be approximately 1 month after the peak in illness,” the report said, projecting there would likely be two or more waves of the pandemic, each lasting 6 to 8 weeks.


Given the threat of multiple waves, the document called for the Canadian government to stockpile everything from ventilators to N95 respirator masks, gowns, gloves and face shields. “There will be shortages of the materials and supplies needed during the pandemic period,” the officials concluded. Therefore “a consistent 16-week supply (i.e. two pandemic waves)” was the minimum needed.

It added: “The government does not have control over when this will occur.”


As hospital workers have learned in recent weeks, those key warnings were never heeded. As SARS faded into history, so too did the anxiety over a deadly outbreak.

But the dire shortages at hospitals during this pandemic – ranging from basic items such as masks to testing equipment and ventilators – has shaken the medical system. Dr. Gill works at hospitals in Brampton and Milton, which she said are straining to the breaking point in normal times. She said her colleagues are now scared, and many don’t believe the government’s figures on the number of people infected, partly because the ability of COVID-19 to be transmitted without symptoms has been so underestimated, contrary to what the 2006 report warned against.


“They are only testing symptomatic people – and it’s asymptomatic people who can be the vectors. The health-care professionals could be those people, in any health-care setting,” Dr. Gill said.

She attributed the lack of widespread, uniform testing and shortages of protective equipment to a failure by Ottawa to act quickly and decisively when it first learned of the virus.


“There should have been a cohesive response,” Dr. Gill said, speaking on behalf of doctors in her organization who are disappointed in how the virus was handled early on. “We had many, many weeks that the government squandered.”

this can never happen again. We need to make it a priority to have in country production of ppe for our health care staff.

This is the 3 major outbreak world wide (SARS,mers, and covid) and whole we have been hit with only 2 we need to never let it happen again.

globalization is great for many things but our healthcare sector needs to be better funded and protected. It’s time for an new investment in health care to protect us all

 

[Analyst365]

this can never happen again. We need to make it a priority to have in country production of ppe for our health care staff.

This is the 3 major outbreak world wide (SARS,mers, and covid) and whole we have been hit with only 2 we need to never let it happen again.

globalization is great for many things but our healthcare sector needs to be better funded and protected. It’s time for an new investment in health care to protect us all

Better funding of our healthcare system means raising taxes. And since most people think taxes are just the government stealing from them, no way they vote for a party in favour of doing this.

I wish we could avoid this in the future, but we live in a democracy. We set the rules. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next leadership party Canada votes in is Conservative and even more cuts to health care follow. We don't even get meat properly inspected when they're in charge.

 

[I am toxic]

More stores putting up boards over windows downtown Vancouver

Cutey-pie is doing well

 

[xtra]

Better funding of our healthcare system means raising taxes. And since most people think taxes are just the government stealing from them, no way they vote for a party in favour of doing this.

I wish we could avoid this in the future, but we live in a democracy. We set the rules. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next leadership party Canada votes in is Conservative and even more cuts to health care follow. We don't even get meat properly inspected when they're in charge.

It’s on us; if the conservatives platform is cutting from health care and we vote for them then it’s on us. I know I won’t be voting for any part that proposes that and that’s a drastic change from someone that was very tax cuts before.

this should be a generation defining moment for us and if we don’t take it as such it’s on us as a country

 

[CBlake]

More stores putting up boards over windows downtown Vancouver

Cutey-pie is doing well

Same in Toronto, lots boarded up along Queen Street West. Not surprised , a stretch of the downtown core that gets a lot of foot traffic and right now it would be a ghost town, a perfect target for theft. Which is unfortunate but a reality of the situation we find ourselves in.

 

[I am toxic]

It’s on us; if the conservatives platform is cutting from health care and we vote for them then it’s on us. I know I won’t be voting for any part that proposes that and that’s a drastic change from someone that was very tax cuts before.

this should be a generation defining moment for us and if we don’t take it as such it’s on us as a country

Well said. In a democracy, the buck stops with we the people. We are spoilt with institutions that brilliant minds devised over centuries and millennia - the vote, freedom of speech and related responsibility, freedom of press, universal education. Sure these institutions aren't perfect, nothing is, but we can choose to improve them, or fall for the propaganda of those selfish special interest groups and foreign disinformation campaigns (looking at you Putin and CCP) that seek to deceive people into denigrating these institutions instead of appreciating them for the tools that allow us to choose a better world.

 

[Analyst365]

It’s on us; if the conservatives platform is cutting from health care and we vote for them then it’s on us. I know I won’t be voting for any part that proposes that and that’s a drastic change from someone that was very tax cuts before.

this should be a generation defining moment for us and if we don’t take it as such it’s on us as a country

That's is basically what I was saying. Its on us. Unfortunately I don't have a lot of faith in 'us'.

 

[dubey]

“That is a surprise”: Doctors still waiting for feared surge of COVID-19 patients in Canadian ICUs

Hoping it stays this way:

"The latest report from Ontario’s critical-care system on Friday showed just two additional coronavirus patients admitted to an ICU anywhere in the province the day before. Despite having to treat over 530 confirmed or possible COVID-19 people, almost 78 per cent of the province’s expanded intensive-care capacity remained free."

 

[Snippit]

So Canada has seen a plateau/decline in the number of daily new cases for about a week now.

Is it possible that this is due to testing capacity being saturated?

 

[Sens]

So Canada has seen a plateau/decline in the number of daily new cases for about a week now.

Is it possible that this is due to testing capacity being saturated?

I home so... the ICU beds are not being taken
So if there is a ton of this untested it’s going to significantly lower the mortality rate

 

[I am toxic]

This article is a very good summary of how Canadian government screwed up big time in their response to the pandemic. Absolutely inexcusable to be so ignorant and/or short-sighted.
Ottawa had a playbook for a coronavirus-like pandemic 14 years ago. What went wrong?

SARS was seen as a wakeup call. The next outbreak to test Canada’s health-care system could be much worse, so a team of medical experts began drafting a playbook. It was intended to form the basis of the country’s future pandemic preparedness, but it reads like a play-by-play of COVID-19.

“The next pandemic will first emerge outside of Canada,” the 550-page document predicted. The virus “will be present in Canada within 3 months after it emerges in another part of the world, but it could be much sooner because of the volume and speed of global air travel.”


The report assumed that 70 per cent of the population would be infected over the course of the pandemic, but only 15 to 35 per cent of Canadians would exhibit signs of illness, such as coughing and fever. There would be a “relatively high rate” of infection even from patients who displayed no symptoms.

“A pandemic wave will sweep across Canada in 1-2 months affecting multiple locations simultaneously. This is based on analysis of the spread of past pandemics,” the report said, including the 1918 Spanish flu, which raced across Canada as soldiers travelling by train returned from the First World War.

“The first peak of illness could occur within 2 to 4 months after the virus arrives in Canada. The first peak in mortality is expected to be approximately 1 month after the peak in illness,” the report said, projecting there would likely be two or more waves of the pandemic, each lasting 6 to 8 weeks.


Given the threat of multiple waves, the document called for the Canadian government to stockpile everything from ventilators to N95 respirator masks, gowns, gloves and face shields. “There will be shortages of the materials and supplies needed during the pandemic period,” the officials concluded. Therefore “a consistent 16-week supply (i.e. two pandemic waves)” was the minimum needed.

It added: “The government does not have control over when this will occur.”


As hospital workers have learned in recent weeks, those key warnings were never heeded. As SARS faded into history, so too did the anxiety over a deadly outbreak.

But the dire shortages at hospitals during this pandemic – ranging from basic items such as masks to testing equipment and ventilators – has shaken the medical system. Dr. Gill works at hospitals in Brampton and Milton, which she said are straining to the breaking point in normal times. She said her colleagues are now scared, and many don’t believe the government’s figures on the number of people infected, partly because the ability of COVID-19 to be transmitted without symptoms has been so underestimated, contrary to what the 2006 report warned against.


“They are only testing symptomatic people – and it’s asymptomatic people who can be the vectors. The health-care professionals could be those people, in any health-care setting,” Dr. Gill said.

She attributed the lack of widespread, uniform testing and shortages of protective equipment to a failure by Ottawa to act quickly and decisively when it first learned of the virus.


“There should have been a cohesive response,” Dr. Gill said, speaking on behalf of doctors in her organization who are disappointed in how the virus was handled early on. “We had many, many weeks that the government squandered.”

Here is a good article on Canada's reponse.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Canadian model estimates b/w 22,500 to 32,000 cases and b/w 500 - 700 deaths within a week. I'm a little confused since the worldometer website indicates that Canada already has 20,000 cases - I guess these numbers are new cases and deaths within the next week? Overall, we seem to be trending quite well comparative to other countries.

edit: These numbers are only for the next week... overall death projections are b/w 11,000 to 300,000 deaths.

300,000 deaths? Lol

 

[DuklaNation]

Having audited a major GTA hospital before, I can state firmly most people on the outside have zero credibility when discussing the finances of health care in Ontario. Its bloated, inefficient, crappy unions, wasteful, etc. Innovation on the high tech side will improve health care a lot, say within 5 years. The problem with funding more each year, which the left likes to do, is that it provides zero incentive to allocate the resources efficiently. Fixing it is very difficult. I would recommend a hybrid private/public system where applicable. Most of the management is worthless.

This impacts pandemic response a lot because if your system is dysfunctional at best of times, its not going to work during the worst of times (which we really haven't seen here as of yet). People in Canada feel their healthcare system is good but it has fallen behind during the past 20 years. We're middle of the pack at best currently. For acute response, its pretty good, but chronic or periodic care, it sucks.

 

[dubey]

Having audited a major GTA hospital before, I can state firmly most people on the outside have zero credibility when discussing the finances of health care in Ontario. Its bloated, inefficient, crappy unions, wasteful, etc. Innovation on the high tech side will improve health care a lot, say within 5 years. The problem with funding more each year, which the left likes to do, is that it provides zero incentive to allocate the resources efficiently. Fixing it is very difficult. I would recommend a hybrid private/public system where applicable. Most of the management is worthless.

This impacts pandemic response a lot because if your system is dysfunctional at best of times, its not going to work during the worst of times (which we really haven't seen here as of yet). People in Canada feel their healthcare system is good but it has fallen behind during the past 20 years. We're middle of the pack at best currently. For acute response, its pretty good, but chronic or periodic care, it sucks.

Or anything for that matter

It's just noise at this point

 

[I am toxic]

Kudos to Alberta.