Can Vegas beat San Jose in the first round without a healthy Fleury?

[Rubi]

Player	Date of Injury	Injury Type	Injury Note
Marc-Andre Fleury	Sun, Mar 17, 2019	Lower Body	Fleury is out of commission due to a lower-body injury and there is no timetable for recovery.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[Kcb12345]

Helll no Subban is terrible

 

[Snakepit]

As much as I like the rest of the team, their playoff hopes live and die with MAF

 

[Brad Marchant]

Subban is terrible so no.

 

[LuckyBoeser]

Jones is terrible too evident by eye test and analytics. However if Vegas runs into playoffs warriors Jones, then that is an entire different story.

 

[Rubi]

Depends on how Martin Jones plays for SJ.
Right now Suban is probably on par with the Jones. With MAF I would have given the series to Vegas but without him it might be a toss up.

 

[Ronnie Residue]

I think they could. As a sharks fan, this series could go either way, and I’m certainly not overly confident. Vegas matches up against us really well.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I'm not sure the Sharks have a goaltending advantage even if MAF is out.

 

[Voight]

Sharks are historic chokers so anything is possible really

 

[Maukkis]

I have this series pegged as one that is determined by goaltending alone. Both teams have amazing systems at evens, but holy shit, has Jones been bad this year. Without Fleury, it would be very even. Probably giving SJ the edge due to Jones' history, though. A very slight edge

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I have this series pegged as one that is determined by goaltending alone. Both teams have amazing systems at evens, but holy ****, has Jones been bad this year. Without Fleury, it would be very even. Probably giving SJ the edge due to Jones' history, though. A very slight edge

San Jose doesn’t necessarily have an amazing system. Over the past 3 seasons of 5-on-5 play, no goaltender faces a higher percentage of high danger shots per shot faced and only Cam Talbot has a lower xSV% per Corsica’s model. They limit quantity and give up quality.

Granted, Jones has also been absolutely terrible and thoroughly underperformed his expected save percentage, as well as any reasonable save percentage that we can expect from looking at a regression line based on percentage of high danger shots allowed. But he and the system are a match made in hell.

 

[Maukkis]

San Jose doesn’t necessarily have an amazing system. Over the past 3 seasons of 5-on-5 play, no goaltender faces a higher percentage of high danger shots per shot faced and only Cam Talbot has a lower xSV% per Corsica’s model. They limit quantity and give up quality.

Granted, Jones has also been absolutely terrible and thoroughly underperformed his expected save percentage, as well as any reasonable save percentage that we can expect from looking at a regression line based on percentage of high danger shots allowed. But he and the system are a match made in hell.

Yeah, but let's remember than San Jose also puts up crazy xG for. With that much going for your offense, you can get away with the bad defense as well.

Vegas has both sides in pretty good shape. The absence of Fleury could easily submarine them, though.

 

[HanSolo]

Depends on which Subban comes to play every night. On the off hand the version of him that's a low end starter that we see every now and then can show up in every game I like our chances but if he plays like he has...well for this entire losing streak the Knights have been on then yikes.

Also if the injuries to Schmidt and Theodore are serious then yikes no matter who is in net.

 

[CupInSIX]

Jones usually spots VGK a goal or 2 in the first couple of minutes, but Subban usually gives up 2 softies per game. It could be a 7 game contest to see who could suck less.

 

[Tarmore]

How many teams are there that would survive the first round without their #1 goalie? Not many.

 

[CaptainShark]

Yes, cause Martin Jones is equally terrible...

 

[Sam Spade]

Jones is less terrible than Subban, so no. But I never believe injury "news" so MAF will probably be back for game one.

 

[jetsforever]

Not sure if they can win even with Fleury

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

They have a chance

 

[WSS11]

Also depends on the sharks health. If Erik Karlsson can be at even 80% and Pavelski comes back healthy then probably not unless Jones completely shits the bed.

 

[weaponomega]

No. Subban is awful, especially in pressure situations.

 

[bert]

What happened to Dansk. Subban is terrible.

 

[CraigsList]

San Jose has a lot of fire power, so I don't know. It would really depend on which goalie plays worse. And, my bets would be on Subban playing worse than Jones.

 

[Volica]

This might be one of the worst goalie match-ups for two high seeded teams going at it if MAF isn't in net.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Subban might be one of the worst goalies in the NHL so probably not. As bad as Jones has been atleast I've seen him play good hockey, especially in the playoffs before.