Speculation: Can The Jets still win their division?

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Lots of talk suggesting the Jets begin resting players. I posted this in another thread, but took enough time composing it I felt it deserved its own.

For those that haven't looked closely at the remaining schedule now your chance:

Our strategy heading home regarding rest is clouded as long as we have a shot at first.

We're 5 points back & here's the schedules:

Winnipeg.......................................................................................Nashville..............................................................................
Tuesday, March 27 Boston (104) (22-10-5)................Tuesday, March 27 Minnesota (93) (17-18-1)
Thursday, March 29 @Chicago (71) (17-17-4)...........Thursday, March 29 San Jose (95) (19-12-6)
Saturday, March 31 @Toronto (97) (26-8-2).............Saturday, March 31 Buffalo (58) (12-17-7)
Monday, April 2 @Ottawa (63) (15-17-6).....................Sunday, April 1 @Tampa Bay (106) (27-8-2)
Tuesday, April 3 @Montreal (66) (17-13-8).................Tuesday, April 3 @Florida (83) (15-17-4)
Thursday, April 5 Calgary (80) (20-13-6).....................Thursday, April 5 @Washington (95) (18-15-5)
Saturday, April 7 Chicago (71) (14-19-5)......................Saturday, April 7 Columbus (89) (17-17-3)

Data in first brackets is current points
Data in second brackets is opposing teams record, home or away as it applies

If we can beat Boston tomorrow & Minnesota can beat Nashville in regulation I'd say we have a real shot at the top seed.

Following Tuesday games, Nashville could easily go 3-3 to finish & Winnipeg could go 4-2 resulting in the teams separated by a single point, making last night win in OT tough to swallow, but if Jets can make up that extra point we've got more wins in regulation.

Let's also remember the Jets history of late season winning streaks & Nashville's current slide.

Click to read more...

 

[bustamente]

We definitely have the easier of the schedule only 2 playoff teams, Nashville plays only 1 team that will for sure miss the playoffs. We play more road games, the play more at home. We are on a winning streak of 5 they have lost 3. So yes it very possible if we win 5-7 that we could sneak into first. GJG

 

[GNP]

Be careful what you wish for here -- the Jet's in second place to play the Wild, is not to bad a matchup for us.

 

[Gm0ney]

Be careful what you wish for here -- the Jet's in second place to play the Wild, is not to bad a matchup for us.

Home ice trumps everything. Best home record in the league. Maurice gets to match lines. 15000 screaming whiteout maniacs.

 

[scarbrow21]

I agree home ice trumps all but the "prize" for winning the division isn't all that great as I think MIN is one of the opponents I'd rather play! COL, STL, LAK, ANH...those aren't teams I'd rather play in the 1st round! I want to see Nsh play Anh 1st round and have those two teams beat the living crap out of eachother!

 

[cheswick]

I disagree that the top team in the league could "easily" go 3-3 in their last six, making it 3-5-1 in their last 9. That's very unlikely. The Jets winning the division is a huge long shot. Finishing second in the conference is a realistic goal.

 

[untouchable21]

I don’t see it happening. Predators are too good and if anything, the game last night and the two previous for them will serve as a reminder for them to bring their A game down the stretch.

Pulling off all those late game comebacks maybe got them a little over confident with where their game was at.

 

[GNP]

Home ice trumps everything. Best home record in the league. Maurice gets to match lines. 15000 screaming whiteout maniacs.

_______________________________________________________

Very good point you make here Gmoney--home ice in our case is very important, as we do have the best home ice record in the league. We'll have it either way though--if we finish first or second.

 

[raideralex99]

Jets would have to win 6 of 7 or Preds lose 6 of 7 ... for any chance of this happening. I can't see the Pred going on a long losing streak ... it's at 3 right now.

 

[jefferoni]

Haven't the folks at MoneyPuck already crunched all the numbers? They're predicting that the Preds have a 96% chance of winning the Central whereas our chance is only 4%...

 

[Gm0ney]

I agree home ice trumps all but the "prize" for winning the division isn't all that great as I think MIN is one of the opponents I'd rather play! COL, STL, LAK, ANH...those aren't teams I'd rather play in the 1st round! I want to see Nsh play Anh 1st round and have those two teams beat the living crap out of eachother!

Here are the xG differentials (Corsica expected goals for and against - 5 game rolling average) for the Jets, Preds and their possible 1st round opponents (7 images so I put it in a spoiler tag):

Spoiler

The Jets have pulled out of the dive they went into when injuries piled up on top of the flu on top of the road trip. They've had the xG pedal to the metal for this entire homestand.

Did Nashville peak early? I sure hope so.

Wild had a big surge. They've been decent all year. Boudreau knows what he's doing, that corpulent red-faced son of a bitch.

Blues look like a pretty good team aside from that massive swoon (from which they've apparently recovered). It all comes down to goaltending with them. Otherwise they're decent I think.

LA have been unimpressive in the xG department. They do play a grinding game though.

Colorado's been mostly not that great - but MacK has put the team on his back and carried them to the threshold of the playoffs. Can the Jets beat a team that relies so much on one player? I think so.

Ducks aren't the team they used to be. Still heavy, but running around pounding the shit out of everything takes a toll on them as well.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Home ice trumps everything. Best home record in the league. Maurice gets to match lines. 15000 screaming whiteout maniacs.

Plus.....banners. Banners are good

 

[Gm0ney]

Haven't the folks at MoneyPuck already crunched all the numbers? They're predicting that the Preds have a 96% chance of winning the Central whereas our chance is only 4%...

View attachment 107721

Yeah the 5 point gap is pretty tough to make up in 7 games. Nashville's magic number is 10 to eliminate the Jets from 1st in the Central. Nashville only has to win 3 of their last 7 games and the Jets only have to lose 2 of 7 to hit it. If the Preds go 3-4-0 down the stretch, the Jets have to be better than 5-2-0 (5-1-1 would do it if at least 4 of the 5 wins are ROWs). It's a pretty tall order.

This chart assumes the Jets hold the tiebreaker:

Jets Record	NSH needs
7-0-0/116	5-2-0/117
6-0-1/115	4-2-1/116
6-1-0/114	4-3-0/115
5-1-1/113	3-3-1/114
5-2-0/112	3-4-0/113
4-2-1/111	2-4-1/112
4-3-0/110	2-5-0/111
3-3-1/109	1-5-1/110

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[John Agar]

The homer in me says definitely yes...

The unbiased rational pragmatist says no...

Pick which one I want...

 

[Tommigun]

Haven't the folks at MoneyPuck already crunched all the numbers? They're predicting that the Preds have a 96% chance of winning the Central whereas our chance is only 4%...

View attachment 107721

Those numbers are weird. One loss by Nashville and one win by us will alter them quite dramatically. It’s the same thing for the wild cards etc, if you follow the numbers there a key game can affect the percentages by tens of units.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I disagree that the top team in the league could "easily" go 3-3 in their last six, making it 3-5-1 in their last 9. That's very unlikely. The Jets winning the division is a huge long shot. Finishing second in the conference is a realistic goal.

One of those games is against the #2 team on the road in Tampa Bay. There's a potential loss right there. There's also games against the 7th (Washington), 8th (San Jose) & 9th (Minnesota) placed teams.

Nashville has lost 16 games all season. 3 of those losses have been to Minnesota & 1 of which has been to San Jose.

As I said it's entirely possible they go 3-3, particularly with Jarnkrok out for the remainder of the regular season.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Haven't the folks at MoneyPuck already crunched all the numbers? They're predicting that the Preds have a 96% chance of winning the Central whereas our chance is only 4%...

View attachment 107721

And those odds will change substantially with a Jets win & a Nashville loss tomorrow.

Looking at Money Puck game by game: (odds of winning in brackets)

Winnipeg.......................................................................................Nashville..............................................................................
Tuesday, March 27 Boston (61%)................Tuesday, March 27 Minnesota (56.6%)
Thursday, March 29 @Chicago (54.2%)...........Thursday, March 29 San Jose (55.5%)
Saturday, March 31 @Toronto (56.7%).............Saturday, March 31 Buffalo (68.6%)
Monday, April 2 @Ottawa (59.7%).....................Sunday, April 1 @Tampa Bay (39.7%)
Tuesday, April 3 @Montreal (56%).................Tuesday, April 3 @Florida (54%)
Thursday, April 5 Calgary (60.4%).....................Thursday, April 5 @Washington (53.1%)
Saturday, April 7 Chicago (64.2%)......................Saturday, April 7 Columbus (56.3%)

So the Predators are in coin flips in 5 of their games, big underdogs in 1 & a clear favourite in the other.

Jets are clear favourites in 4 games & coin flips in 3.

 

[Deedog99]

Jets needed two clean wins against Nashville in their last two games together. Didn't happen so no to first. Would rather give wheels and buff a couple games off.

 

[Aavco Cup]

At sportsclub stats odds of winning division if Jets finish

109 points 0%
110 points 1%
111 points 3%
112 points 6%
113 points 13%
114 points 23%
115 points 38%
116 points 52%


So you're telling me there's a chance

 

[AlphaLackey]

Haven't the folks at MoneyPuck already crunched all the numbers? They're predicting that the Preds have a 96% chance of winning the Central whereas our chance is only 4%...

View attachment 107721

Yeah, that's in the right ballpark. SportsClubStats has slightly more optimistic at 9% (8% as #1 in west, 1% as #2 in west behind Vegas) but at the end of the day, the Jets are still almost certainly (90%+) set for 2nd place.

And while I'm definitely a fan of home ice advantage, there definitely does exist some percentage where the better first round matchup gives us more of an increase to CupWin% than not having home ice in the 2nd round would cost us. Bear in mind that finishing ahead of Vegas means we'd be the #2 seed in the west and if we beat NSH would have home ice in round 3 and quite possibly in round 4.

 

[Aggie204]

Home ice trumps everything. Best home record in the league. Maurice gets to match lines. 15000 screaming whiteout maniacs.

 

[JohnStaymoose]

Would be nice to have a division pennant sitting up in the rafters but I'm totally ok with finishing second.