Can someone please explain the new draft lottery to me?

[Comic Book Guy*]

Ok, so after some reading, I ascertained that the new weighting looks like so:


Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest Pts. to Most) New Draft Lottery Odds Odds Under Former Allocation
1 20.0% 25.0%
2 13.5% 18.8%
3 11.5% 14.2%
4 9.5% 10.7%
5 8.5% 8.1%
6 7.5% 6.2%
7 6.5% 4.7%
8 6.0% 3.6%
9 5.0% 2.7%
10 3.5% 2.1%
11 3.0% 1.5%
12 2.5% 1.1%
13 2.0% 0.8%
14 1.0% 0.5%

Which is fine, whatever. But my question is this: Why do people keep insisting that the last place team (Oilers/Sabres) only have a 20% chance to draft McDAvid if they finish last? That doesn't even make sense.

My understanding is that teams can only jump 4 spots. That means that if anyone from 6-14 win it, then Oilers/Sabres still get to choose first overall.

Wouldn't that mean that if the Oilers finished last, they actually have a 43.2% chance at McDavid.. not 20%? Because 20 + 6.2 + 7.7 + 3.6 + 2.7 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 1.1 + 0.8 + 0.5 = 43.2?

That's still very likely!

Click to read more...

 

[NoShowWilly]

the whole "team can only go up 4 spots" was done away with. Any of the bottom 14 teams can choose first overall this year.

Next year the top 3 spots will be available in the lottery. the 30th overall team could be choosing as low as 4th.

 

[gphr513]

Only the bottom 4 can get the 1st pick???

That'd be news to me. I was under the assumption that every team in the lottery could get the first pick.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Only the bottom 4 can get the 1st pick???

That'd be news to me. I was under the assumption that every team in the lottery could get the first pick.

that is how it used to be

 

[Quarter]

You've mixed up the previous format and the now current format. Whoever wins the lottery drafts first. It's simple as that.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

The new lottery allows any team that finishes outside the playoffs to get 1st overall.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

the whole "team can only go up 4 spots" was done away with. Any of the bottom 14 teams can choose first overall this year.

Next year the top 3 spots will be available in the lottery. the 30th overall team could be choosing as low as 4th.

Somehow I had not heard of this. I like this. A lot.

 

[PepperKeenan]

Wikipedia explains it pretty good.

 

[CraigsList]

Somehow I had not heard of this. I like this. A lot.

Yep, the 30th place team in the league can possibly pick 4th now. I wish they could have gone a little further and made the top 5, making 30th OA at worst pick 6th.

 

[Oilslick941611]

yup, lots of Oiler fans advocating losing and drafting first are loosening their neckties and gulping, even if we finish last we might not get them. Which would be fantastic, losing needs to stop being rewarded.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Yep, the 30th place team in the league can possibly pick 4th now. I wish they could have gone a little further and made the top 5, making 30th OA at worst pick 6th.

Agreed, even though top 5 is usually a fan made idea really. Arguably this year its more of a top 2, 3rd place and then whomever scouts like best.

 

[CraigsList]

Agreed, even though top 5 is usually a fan made idea really. Arguably this year its more of a top 2, 3rd place and then whomever scouts like best.

Well this new rule won't be enforced until the 2016 draft.

 

[BigBen]

I like the 2016 format.

 

[MoreOrr]

This thread should be stickied, because there's been a whole barrage of threads talking about Buffalo or Edmonton winning the McDavid lottery. Nothing is even near guaranteed with respect to any team getting the first pick other than it being a team that doesn't make the Playoffs.

 

[kdb209]

NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format

2015 - adjusted odds, still a single pick, any non-playoff team can win and move up to #1, worst team draft no worse than #2.

2016 - 3 lottery picks for #1, #2, & #3, worst team can drop to #4.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Yep, the 30th place team in the league can possibly pick 4th now. I wish they could have gone a little further and made the top 5, making 30th OA at worst pick 6th.

Wait, what? That's not how I read it (even for 2016)

Only non-playoff teams are in the lottery, right?

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Wait, what? That's not how I read it (even for 2016)

Only non-playoff teams are in the lottery, right?

30th (as in the last place team, not the Cup winner) could hypothetically pick as low as 4th next year.

 

[mouser]

These will be the composite draft odds starting in 2016:

 

[hyster110]

i still really dont like that the worst team in the league has a better chance of picking 4th than 1st. bad for league parity

 

[Duck Off]

30th (as in the last place team, not the Cup winner) could hypothetically pick as low as 4th next year.

This is what needed to be said, as I think this is where the confusion was. Some were thinking that the cup winner could pick 4th, which is 100% wrong, correct?

Do playoff teams even get their shot at the lottery? Either year (2015/2016)?

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't agree with 30th picking 4th. Btw, now that the Oilers are winning a bit more, the Oilers actually stand to benefit from the new rules so it's not selfishness.

I'm all for changing the odds to limit tanking but the worst teams should be getting someone good enough to help them rebuild. The outcome of the lottery might completely shift the direction of those clubs, and the value of the picks drop exponentially at the top. Dropping one spot should be enough.

Basically the principle is good, and I like the lottery as it is now to discourage tanking, but I think we will see that once the top talents start regularly going to .500 clubs something will be amiss. I mean, it's not just the bottom teams that tank. Take a bubble team like Toronto. How are they not tanking by the same measure we judge Buffalo? Buffalo is just the more extreme example, but both teams seem to have given up on the idea of repairing their squads.

In next year's format, we will start seeing more mid-season tanking imo. The top 3 picks all by lottery? That is downright radical. Do other leagues do that?

 

[Duck Off]

I don't agree with 30th picking 4th. Btw, now that the Oilers are winning a bit more, the Oilers actually stand to benefit from the new rules so it's not selfishness.

I'm all for changing the odds to limit tanking but the worst teams should be getting someone good enough to help them rebuild. The outcome of the lottery might completely shift the direction of those clubs, and the value of the picks drop exponentially at the top. Dropping one spot should be enough.

Basically the principle is good, and I like the lottery as it is now to discourage tanking, but I think we will see that once the top talents start regularly going to .500 clubs something will be amiss. I mean, it's not just the bottom teams that tank. Take a bubble team like Toronto. How are they not tanking by the same measure we judge Buffalo? Buffalo is just the more extreme example, but both teams seem to have given up on the idea of repairing their squads.

In next year's format, we will start seeing more mid-season tanking imo. The top 3 picks all by lottery? That is downright radical. Do other leagues do that?

IMO if anything next year's format will prevent more teams from tanking. Right now the last place team can do no worse then 2nd overall. That encourages teams to tank much more then next year. Next year the last place team may end up picking 4th anyway. I wish it was that way this year. It's obvious Buffalo is tanking so that they get one of the first two picks, and who could blame them? Two of the best prospects in years will be available, and a last place finish ensures they get one of them. Next year that wouldn't be possible. The tanking this year is much more obvious then previous years, and I think it's about time the NHL does something where a tank job doesn't ensure anything.

 

[Warden of the North]

Ok, so after some reading, I ascertained that the new weighting looks like so:


Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest Pts. to Most) New Draft Lottery Odds Odds Under Former Allocation
1 20.0% 25.0%
2 13.5% 18.8%
3 11.5% 14.2%
4 9.5% 10.7%
5 8.5% 8.1%
6 7.5% 6.2%
7 6.5% 4.7%
8 6.0% 3.6%
9 5.0% 2.7%
10 3.5% 2.1%
11 3.0% 1.5%
12 2.5% 1.1%
13 2.0% 0.8%
14 1.0% 0.5%

Which is fine, whatever. But my question is this: Why do people keep insisting that the last place team (Oilers/Sabres) only have a 20% chance to draft McDAvid if they finish last? That doesn't even make sense.

My understanding is that teams can only jump 4 spots. That means that if anyone from 6-14 win it, then Oilers/Sabres still get to choose first overall.

Wouldn't that mean that if the Oilers finished last, they actually have a 43.2% chance at McDavid.. not 20%? Because 20 + 6.2 + 7.7 + 3.6 + 2.7 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 1.1 + 0.8 + 0.5 = 43.2?

That's still very likely!

This is incorrect. That was the old lottery. This year ant of the 14 teams not in the playoffs are eligible to pick 1st overall if they win.

 

[Duck Off]

This is incorrect. That was the old lottery. This year ant of the 14 teams not in the playoffs are eligible to pick 1st overall if they win.

what about the teams in the playoffs? Are they eligible to move up at all?

 

[Diatomic]

i still really dont like that the worst team in the league has a better chance of picking 4th than 1st. bad for league parity

Well I like it, it'll prevent the pro-tanking teams from outright sucking and as a reward getting a franchise player