Can Ovi be the all time greatest scorer?

[Its a Hockey Night]

Hey everyone,

First things first i'm not here to start trouble.....Just wanted that on the record.

I made a video for my YT channel (it's tiny not here to self promote) about if Ovi could be the best of all time in scoring.

I came across a few stats about around goal scoring past the age of 35 where usually there is a drop off. The oldest player to hit 50 goals was Jagr at 34.

So I was wondering which of the three below people think would happen

Ovi will break tradition and keep his scoring pace up past 35 years old
He will break the record by playing into his 40's
he will fall short of the record.

PS. I think if it wasn't for Covid and the lockouts and would have hit it but that is an alt timeline.

Click to read more...

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

He can still hit it, although it became more difficult to do so. He’s 188 goals away. 1 season of 40 goals and 5 seasons of 30 goals gets it done, and that only takes him to the age of 41-42.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Two things can be and are true: (1) Ovi can and may (or may not) break Gretzky's and (2) he's already the best goal scorer that's ever played the game.

I personally want nothing more in sports than to see him break the record but logically I think he probably falls 30 or so short. He is a mutant but father time has to hit him in the face eventually and he'll slow down at some point sooner rather than later... it's just a matter of how quickly and by how much he falls off. Ovi is also a unique individual and won't just hang around trying to break the record; if he's no longer a top-tier player he'll go do something else with his life.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Hey everyone,

First things first i'm not here to start trouble.....Just wanted that on the record.

I made a video for my YT channel (it's tiny not here to self promote) about if Ovi could be the best of all time in scoring.

I came across a few stats about around goal scoring past the age of 35 where usually there is a drop off. The oldest player to hit 50 goals was Jagr at 34.

So I was wondering which of the three below people think would happen

Ovi will break tradition and keep his scoring pace up past 35 years old
He will break the record by playing into his 40's
he will fall short of the record.

PS. I think if it wasn't for Covid and the lockouts and would have hit it but that is an alt timeline.

If he doesn’t get significantly hurt (big IF as we all age), he will break it in 6yrs or so

 

[txpd]

I have Ovechkin at 900 goals in 5 more seasons. He needs to score 90 in the next 2 seasons and 40 in the 3rd. If he scores near 50 this next season, it will be only a matter of time.

That said, COVID has the inside track right now. He needs a full season this season and that is far from guaranteed

 

[Midnight Judges]

Ovechkin already is the best and greatest goal scorer of all time.

Yes, he can break the record. I think he's got roughly a 50% shot at it. That said, this record is fairly arbitrary because modern players are at such a gargantuan disadvantage. Back when Gretzky played, goal scoring was 20%, 30%, sometimes over 40% easier relative to the time when Ovechkin played. For example, when Gretzky scored 92 goals, teams scored an average of 4.01 goals per game. When Ovie scored 65, that average was 2.78.

4.01 / 2.78 = 43.88%

When these two seasons are adjusted for league wide scoring trends ("normalized" to 3 GPG per team), Ovechkin actually had the better peak goal scoring season:

(3 / 2.78) * 65 = 70

(3 / 4.01) * 92 = 68.8

Anyway, review the numbers below. Taken all together - relative to peers, regular season and playoffs, peak, prime, longevity, GPG, raw goals - nobody has a better case than Alex Ovechkin for the goal scoring king.

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	706	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	8	4	11	1	22	6	18	2	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	798	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	3	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
*As of 3/26/20	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Hivemind]

Ovechkin lost 1.5 seasons to lockouts and is looking to lose about 1-1.5 seasons worth of games to the COVID pandemic. The record is going to stand thanks to circumstance.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Ovechkin lost 1.5 seasons to lockouts and is looking to lose about 1-1.5 seasons worth of games to the COVID pandemic. The record is going to stand thanks to circumstance.

Yeah, it sucks. Saw on the Twitter machine last night from one of the main insiders that the NHL is proposing a 60-game season due to Covid. That’s another 22 games lost and it will cost him a shot at another 50-goal season.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yeah, it sucks. Saw on the Twitter machine last night from one of the main insiders that the NHL is proposing a 60-game season due to Covid. That’s another 22 games lost and it will cost him a shot at another 50-goal season.

Ovy is 78.88% of the way there. I think he can still make it, and will.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

if he can play as long as some of these NFL QBs he has the record for sure. but he has to want it and put the work in to stay in shape.

 

[txpd]

This next season will say a lot. I saw no sign that he was slowing down last season. Its fair to expect him to produce in the same ballpark. A 60 game schedule would be damaging

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

I mean, even if he falls a bit short and ends up 2nd ALL TIME that's still nothing to sneeze at. All time legend at this point no matter what.

Even in this shortened season he has a very good chance to pot another 30 and jump into 5th, putting three more guys on the list in the rearview mirror. Then the following season 2021-22 he'd only have to sneeze on some pucks for a month or so and Hull is out of the way. By the end of 2021-22 he'd be coming up pretty close on Jagr at 36 years of age. Then it's just a matter of chipping away 20 goals at a time for as long as he feels like playing into his early 40s.

It definitely got harder for him but he can still do it. It's just a matter of time really and how long he wants to keep it going.

 

[txpd]

50 games this season makes it really hard unless Ov can do a 50 goals in 50 games or similar.

 

[kicksavedave]

Ovechkin lost 1.5 seasons to lockouts and is looking to lose about 1-1.5 seasons worth of games to the COVID pandemic. The record is going to stand thanks to circumstance.

Sadly this. He's lost 2 plus full seasons due to things he cannot control (i.e. not injury). If we extrapolate out his career average goals he's lost about 100 goals to lockout/covid. Sadly that means he would have to make up that 100 goals to catch Gretz and its too unlikely. Were there no lockouts/shutdowns, if he is at ~806 right now then its a question of him doing it in 2 years or at the beginning of his 3rd year from now and it would be a metaphysical certainty.

As it is now its just going to be so hard to pull off.

 

[Ridley Simon]

He will do it. I think he wants a Russian to have the all time mark, on top of his own ambitions. Mother Russia and all.

unless injury. But that’s always been the concern. He’s a tank and can play to 42-43 is he wants. And I think he wants.

 

[DanTHEMan71]

188 goals left. He needs 5 years. That's about 37 goals a season. I think he'll get at least 35 in this 56-game season. Hopefully the NHL gets back to 82-game schedules after this. I think he can average at least 30 goals for the next 5 years. Then I think if he's just short, he'll sign a one-year deal to get the record. Then he'll retire in Russia in his mid-40s probably.

 

[Firsov99]

It just seems unrealistic considering the current circumstances. I, personally, would be delighted if he hits 800 and passes Howe. This would be a monumental achievement.

 

[Corby78]

It will probably come down to if he wants it. If he gets another 140, will he be willing to keep playing past his good playing days scoring 10-15 goals a year? If so, some team will help him do it

 

[Roshi]

I still have him making it. Just praying he stays healthy and no more freaking lockouts and pandemics..

now @ 706
20-21 31/54 - total 737
*new contract 4 years
21-22 40/78 - total 777
22-23 36/76 - total 813
23/24 33/74 - total 846
24-25 30/70 - total 876

He is not going to retire being so close!

 

[BallardEra]

Interesting article on how many possible goals he's lost. I don't agree with the 50 goals lost in the missed season. I think he'd have less than that:

Washington Capitals sniper Alex Ovechkin’s scoring slowed only by things out of his control - TSN.ca

 

[VaCaps Fan]

The lockout year really screwed him in 2004.

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

The lockout year really screwed him in 2004.

Yeah, he scored 52 as a 20 year-old in 2005-06. He was probably good for at least 40 as a 19 year-old in 2004-05.

Add that to the 48 game season because of lockout in 2012-13, and these two messed up Covid seasons, and he has been royally screwed.

 

[zappa4ever]

A season ago Pre-Covid I said I'd be thrilled if he hits 800 and 801, anything else is gravy
Now -- same thing, catch Gordie Howe and be in the 800 Club.
Incredible.
With 3 good seasons maybe he can get around 110 more goals

There's just no way on Planet Earf to tell how he's going to feel in 2 years time, let alone longer, it's going to take 5 seasons min. to catch 99 and even though he's Russian Machine Never Breaks I don't believe he'll have that much left in the tank to get there