Ovechkin already is the best and greatest goal scorer of all time.
Yes, he can break the record. I think he's got roughly a 50% shot at it. That said, this record is fairly arbitrary because modern players are at such a gargantuan disadvantage. Back when Gretzky played, goal scoring was 20%, 30%, sometimes over 40% easier relative to the time when Ovechkin played. For example, when Gretzky scored 92 goals, teams scored an average of 4.01 goals per game. When Ovie scored 65, that average was 2.78.
4.01 / 2.78 = 43.88%
When these two seasons are adjusted for league wide scoring trends ("normalized" to 3 GPG per team), Ovechkin actually had the better peak goal scoring season:
(3 / 2.78) * 65 = 70
(3 / 4.01) * 92 = 68.8
Anyway, review the numbers below. Taken all together - relative to peers, regular season and playoffs, peak, prime, longevity, GPG, raw goals - nobody has a better case than Alex Ovechkin for the goal scoring king.
Greatest Goal Scorers of all time | | | | | | | | | |
*As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
Career Total Goals | 706 | 741 | 690 | 894 | 573 | 717 | 610 | 801 | 544 |
Career Tot. Goals Rank | 8 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 31 |
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals | 798 | 738 | 616 | 758 | 461 | 671 | 644 | 925 | 653 |
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank | 3 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 63 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 10 |
Goal Scoring Titles | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
Peak Season goals | 65 | 86 | 85 | 92 | 69 | 76 | 54 | 49 | 50 |
Peak adjusted Season | 72 | 78 | 71 | 69 | 58 | 65 | 57 | 65 | 54 |
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time) | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 54 | 13 | 84 |
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^ | 8.30% | -6.5% | -8% | 7% | -25% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
Same as above, adjusted^^ | 5.9% | 10.0% | -9.0% | -12% | -26% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | -17% |
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs | 17.0% | -15% | 6.8% | 21.0% | 19.0% | -53% | -3.3% | -36% | 24.0% |
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs | 40.0% | 2.8% | 11.0% | 41.0% | 6.0% | -6.0% | 25.0% | -11% | 53.0% |
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs | 53.0% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 30.0% | -23% | 45.0% | 30.0% | 9.0% | 40.0% |
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons | 59.0% | 17.0% | 53.0% | 80.0% | 56.0% | -6.0% | 22.7% | 15.0% | 77.0% |
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons | 60.0% | 41.0% | 32.0% | 79.0% | 79.0% | 59.0% | 72.0% | 107% | 108% |
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons | 86.0% | 44.0% | 35.0% | 70.0% | 31.0% | 85.0% | 105% | 149% | 166% |
*As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
Career GPG | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.6 | 0.76 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.56 |
Career Adj GPG | 0.692 | 0.582 | 0.673 | 0.510 | 0.613 | 0.523 | 0.606 | 0.523 | 0.668 |
All time rank Adjusted GPG*** | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs | 17% | -16% | 11% | 18% | -5% | -50% | -19% | -34% | 22% |
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs | 13% | -19% | 8% | 0% | -12% | -15% | 17% | -13% | 41% |
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years | 15% | -27% | 21% | 16% | -4% | -13% | 4% | -9% | 16% |
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs | 45% | 36% | 44% | 60% | 44% | 0% | 19% | 9% | 50% |
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs | 50% | 45% | 49% | 52% | 38% | 41% | 47% | 55% | 68% |
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs | 52% | 28% | 64% | 34% | 41% | 44% | 61% | 60% | 87% |
**Times Led NHL in GPG | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
50 goal seasons | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs | 22 | 78 | 90 | 110 | 68^ | 30 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
*As of 3/26/20 | Ovi* | Brett | Mario | Gretz | Bossy | Espo | Bobby | Howe | Richard |
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15 | 36% | 6.40% | 6.70% | 8% | 13% | 16.7% | 50% | 0% | 100% |
Adjusted 50 goal seasons | 11 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Playoff Goals | 65 | 103 | 76 | 122 | 85 | 61 | 62 | 68 | 82 |
Playoff GPG | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
Playoff Adj. Goals | 68.5 | 98.8 | 68 | 98.71 | 64.75 | 53.8 | 55.8 | 65.2 | 71.4 |
Playoff Adjusted GPG | 0.535 | 0.489 | 0.636 | 0.475 | 0.502 | 0.414 | 0.469 | 0.415 | 0.541 |
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank*** | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
**Minimum ~ half the games played | | | | | | | | | |
***Among the players on this list | | | | | | | | | |
^ 10 seasons only | | | | | | | | | |
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly) | | | | | | | | | |
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present | | | | | | | | | |
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion | | | | | | | | | |
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion | | | | | | | | | |
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much | | | | | | | | | |
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52. | | | | | | | | | |
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