Can Crosby get to 2,000 career points?

Howard Beale

Registered User
Apr 7, 2010
3,285
91
As a Penguin fan I love Sid. But he is not Lemieux. What I mean by that is you could throw Mario out there today at 50+ years old and be would still get points each night. Sid doesn’t have that kind of game. He is a grinder, a speed guy, and a deflector. All of those things you can’t do when you are older. Sid will lose speed when he gets older. His body will not be able to grind on the walls like he does now. Once he starts to decline it will be a big decline. The Penguins will do right by him and keep him as long as he wants to stay but I can see him calling it quits once the decline starts.
He also has incredible hockey sense and passing, which are skills that won't diminish much. And who's to say his other skills will be declining soon?

I think some people in this thread underestimate how long an elite player can remain effective, if they're dedicated enough. Look at Jagr, Thornton, St. Louis, Sakic, Alfredsson, Selanne...

A few noteworthy seasons by older guys since the 2005 lockout:

  • Alfredsson scored 103 points at age 34
  • Jagr scored 123 points at age 34
  • St. Louis scored 94 points at age 34
  • Alfredsson scored 87 points at age 35
  • St. Louis scored 99 points at age 35
  • Selanne scored 94 points at age 36
  • Alfredsson scored 89 points at age 36
  • Thornton scored 82 points at age 36
  • Sakic scored 87 points at age 36
  • Sakic scored 100 points at age 37
  • Selanne scored 80 points at age 40
  • Jagr scored 66 points at age 44

Crosby's still only 31. I think he has another 100 point season in him, and probably several more seasons of 80+. The only real question mark is health and injury risk, not ability or dedication.

I doubt he gets to 2000 (unless he stays remarkably healthy), but I expect him to get to 1700+. He's at 1150 and he's got a lot more hockey still to play.
 

CanadianPensFan1

Registered User
Jun 13, 2014
7,051
2,049
Canada
I reallllly dont think so. He likely wont be playing much past 40. Not to mention, in those last couple of years, he wont be at 80 to 90 points a year.
 

Lomez

Too Awesome for Top 100
Mar 29, 2009
7,386
1,058
PGH, PA
No way. He's got another 500 points in him, which is absolutely nothing to sneeze at.
 

Nadal On Clay

Djokovic > Nadal > Federer
Oct 11, 2017
3,062
2,669
Crosby has as many chances to reach 2000 pts as Ovechkin to reach 900 goals.


Extremely unlikely.
 

Riddum

Registered User
Nov 5, 2008
5,951
2,003
Montreal
Crosby is already a shell of his former self. He plays a lazy brand of hockey like I have never seen him play before
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
1144 points today. Let's be optimistic:

Finishes this season at 104 points. + 76 = 1220
2020 + 100 = 1320
2021 + 85 = 1405
2022 + 85 = 1490
2023 + 85 = 1575
2024 + 80 = 1655
2025 + 80 = 1735
2026 + 80 = 1815

Would put him at 1815 at 38 years old. That's an extremely optimistic view (a few points more/less each year, but an average). I don't think the above is completely unrealistic - he's been so consistent his whole career, i don't expect him to be scoring only 50 points by age 38, but of course it's possible. But even in this extremely optimistic outtake - he's 200 points out at age 38. He'd need at least 3-4 more seasons after that to hit 2000 - that's assuming no major injuries and no lockout.

Highly, highly unlikely. But not impossible.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TychoFan

Pi

Registered User
Nov 16, 2010
48,856
13,830
Toronto
If he didn't lose so many games due to injury in his prime, it was a very real possibility. Unfortunately, he won't get there.

McDavid is probably the only guy in the league capable of getting there with an injury free career assuming he plays for ~20 years.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
If he didn't lose so many games due to injury in his prime, it was a very real possibility. Unfortunately, he won't get there.

McDavid is probably the only guy in the league capable of getting there with an injury free career assuming he plays for ~20 years.

Of course it's possible - McDavid is great - might even surpass peak Crosby one day. But i'd say Crosby's biggest asset is his consistency. He has one of the most consistent primes in nhl history - possibly top 3. McDavid is only in his 3rd year - we'll only get a better sense of his consistency 4-6 years from now.

Ovechkin looked just as great as Crosby 3-4 years in, but ended up being much less consistent throughout his career in terms of performance. McDavid will need a ton of consistency to earn big career points, so we'll see.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pi

Pi

Registered User
Nov 16, 2010
48,856
13,830
Toronto
Of course it's possible - McDavid is great - might even surpass peak Crosby one day. But i'd say Crosby's biggest asset is his consistency. He has one of the most consistent primes in nhl history - possibly top 3. McDavid is only in his 3rd year - we'll only get a better sense of his consistency 4-6 years from now.

Ovechkin looked just as great as Crosby 3-4 years in, but ended up being much less consistent throughout his career in terms of performance. McDavid will need a ton of consistency to earn big career points, so we'll see.

100%. We don't know if McDavid will be able to keep up the consistency. I think he will be able to do it but it's definitely not impossible for him to slow down as a lot of his game relies on speed which will slowly go away as he gets older.

He would be the best chance we have at a player hitting 2000 points though if he can be healthy. I can't see anyone else coming close.
 

Lemieuxs

Registered User
Nov 23, 2013
845
179
Didn’t McDavid already lose time with that shoulder injury a couple years ago? To get to 2000 you have to almost have zero injuries and be a generational talent and play with great players and have a bunch of luck as well.
 

Riddum

Registered User
Nov 5, 2008
5,951
2,003
Montreal
I'm constantly reminded at how some people should not be allowed access to the world.
The dude has not hit 90pts in the last 5 season and most likely will not this year. He used to be a perennial 100pts player. Always at least on pace for more than 100pts. It's a fact that he's a shell of his former self.

His ppg over the last 5 years 1.119. Crosby was a 1.30+ ppg over the previous 8
 
  • Like
Reactions: DickSmehlik

kmo429

Registered User
Jul 22, 2011
1,927
426
We had the same thread last year but instead it was whether Jagr or Crosby had a better chance to hit 2000 career points. Was heavy on the side that Crosby had a better chance but it was unlikely for either. Does Crosby get to count his postseason scoring? If so, he'll have a good shot. If not, he'll likely need 800 more after this season if he stays healthy this year.

He'll be 32 at the beginning of next year, and although it is conceivable he plays into his young 40's since a player of his talents will still be productive at that age, he's played over 1,000 games already including playoff. He'd likely need to average 80 points a year over 10 more seasons to get there. He'd be almost 42 at the end of that 10 season stretch. And averaging 80 points a year? Almost impossible. If he can somehow get a couple more 100 point seasons then he might get to the point it is conceivable...IF he plays long enough. He needs 355 to get to 1500. If he can get there in the next 3.5 seasons, he'll need 500 more at 35 years old. We'll see. Wuld love to see it/
 

tempofound

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
358
202
I don't think he'll age like a normal player. He's The Next Next One, after all. 9 seasons, ~750 points. Something like this:

18-19: 105
19-20: 95
20-21: 95
21-22: 85
22-23: 80
23-24: 90 (surprising bounce back)
24-25: 75
25-26: 70
26-27: 55

By the 2020's he'll no longer be a Top-5 player in this league, but I can see him play on a elite-level late in his 30's like Sakic. Injuries might ruin everything (again), but yeah, he could get close to the 2,000 point mark.

How can the bounce back be surprising when you've predicted it already?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevs Security

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->