Can AM win the Rocket with his hot start..

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Bronxxx, Dec 5, 2018.

  1. AvsFan29

    AvsFan29 Registered User

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    If you look at the stats from the beginning of last season, which is a large sample, Matthews isn't even close to the top 5, let alone #2.

    McDavid 108GP 143PTS
    Kucherov 109GP 142PTS
    MacKinnon 102GP 140PTS
    Matthews 76GP 86PTS

    If you're thinking "yah he's missed a lot of games but his P/GP puts him in the top 5" it doesn't. He's 10th with 1.13P/GP.

    MacKinnon is the highest with 1.37 and there are 5 players over 1.2P/GP.

    In fact, Matthews is closer to 15th in P/GP than he is to the top 6.

    He has also played the least amount of games, meaning everyone above him (except Marchand) has kept their pace up for 25-30 games longer than Matthews.

    Also, in the 5 games before his injury, he had 0g2a. He has 9PTS in his last 8GP. 5G4A

    He's put up 7 points in the 3 games since returning, and leaf fans are acting like he's doing something special. In reality, the 2.33P/GP he's had since returning, has been done multiple times by multiple players this year, and players like Kucherov have kept up a 2.5P/GP for 10 games. Rantanen has 22pts over 12 games. Laine had 11G over 4 games.

    There's nothing that points towards Matthews being a top 3 player in the league.
     
  2. hockeeyyy

    hockeeyyy Registered User

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    He takes them once in awhile. Maybe once every 5 games? Lemme get back to you on that one.

    I know the reason why he doesn’t take many though. So give me a bit
     
  3. hockeeyyy

    hockeeyyy Registered User

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    So Matthews has played 158 games. In those games, he's produced 517 shots, or 3.27 shots per game.

    I used the NHL.com page to produce the results.

    Wristshot: 225
    Snapshot: 164
    Backhand: 57
    Shot Tipped: 32
    Slapshot: 21
    Wraparound: 14
    Deflection: 3

    So one thing that Auston Matthews does well is find open lanes, or create them on his own for a shot. But to do that, he needs to use that release to produce those opportunities. That's just the basic of it. That's the top reason for why he doesn't take slapshots.

    The slapshot is more of a royal road kind of play. Especially on the power play. If you look at the shots, the NHL doesn't really conflate a wrist shot vs. snap shot. So we know that Auston Matthews uses two different releases for two different shots based on the opportunity of it.

    Players like Laine and Ovechkin can get away with their slap shots because of how their teammates create openings for them. But they are also far more accurate than the average player, so that makes them a little bit of a unicorn because they produce goals out of thin air with slapshots on the power play.

    Matthews doesn't really need to do that. He can produce those goals with his ability to create a lane as I pointed out above. I would venture about 75% of those slap shots he's taken are on the power play, and I think he's scored one. So to me, it's not about the fact that he can't score on them, it's that he can find openings with snap and wrist shots because they are far more efficient, and the rebound opportunities are more predictable.
     
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  4. Dache

    Dache Registered User

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    Pasted? The ole double past tense? Nice
     
  5. Apotheosis

    Apotheosis Registered User

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    Really doubt it, but with Nylander back, his 5v5 production is bound to go up and he's been feasting on the PP. If he finishes with 50 goals despite time missed, that would be HUGE.
     
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  6. Rants Mulliniks

    Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    Funny I was thinking this as well last night.....I honestly struggle to remember him taking a slapshot.
     
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  7. Rants Mulliniks

    Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    Are you aware that you wrote all of that and kind of failed to address his point?
     
  8. AvsFan29

    AvsFan29 Registered User

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    I was responding to him saying that Matthews is a top player.
     
  9. X66

    X66 114-110

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    Hard to believe that as arguably the best goal scorer in the NHL today, he's only had 1 hat trick, and that came in game 1 of his career.
     
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  10. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    From the start of AM's career: NHL.com - Stats

    More than 100GP players only included. Considering how many games he has lost to injuries (and some of games apparently also played when already injured), he does damn fine.

    For example, 4th in goals over that span (having almost same G/GP than Laine). 37th in Points. 19th in PPG.

    I look him as goal scorer primarily, and that is also aspect of his game I personally respect most high.

    Anyway. If other players are played 20-30% more games than other, it doesn't particularly make sense if comparing those players' absolute totals directly.

    Auston 89G - 894G Wayne comparison doesn't make much sense.

    Auston 89G - 101G Laine makes some sense, but only if mentioning that their games played are 158 and 182, and TOI 17:50 and 17:11.
     
  11. Rants Mulliniks

    Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    He essentially said three things:

    1)I think McD is better
    2)Matthews has proven he is a top player in the league
    3) and probably the top goal scorer

    You presumably conceded points 1 and 3 and went for point 2. Your whole rebuttal basically comes down to Pts/GP, where he is 10th in the best league on the planet (while playing through injuries). In what universe does presenting an argument that someone is in the top 1 - 2 % refute that they are "a top player in the league"?
     
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  12. Eternal Leaf

    Eternal Leaf Registered User

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    Even if he cools down to his career shooting % (and generates the same number of shots), Matthews will end with 47-48 goals in 68 games. :laugh:
     
  13. Avelanche

    Avelanche #freeRedmond

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    shooting 30% is not a good. he's gonna finish shooting liek 15.
     
  14. Mbraunm

    Mbraunm Registered User

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    I think he can and will win it.
     
  15. FalcorMulch

    FalcorMulch Registered User

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    What about being the best goal scorer since his rookie season?

    That said, I don't put him top 3. Top 10 for sure, top 5 if we're considering age (i.e., who would I take to build a team right now). The person you're responding to didn't even call him top 2 or 3, they just called him a top player.
     
  16. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    No way. Auston cannot f*** up it that low, taking account his career S% was 15.9 already before this season, and now 17.2%. Bigger the sample grows, slower it will change on average to either direction. If you gain something in X games, you must do worse longer on same rate than X games to get it back to where you started. Same apply to Season S%, but of course sample is smaller and it also reflect more rabidly changes in accuracy of shooting.

    Ovi's Career S% is already long time ago stagnated to it's current level, and even new additions of samples of whole seasons doesn't anymore cause much changes in it.
     
  17. Marner

    Marner Hi I'm Mitch

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    He is only 6 goals behind the leader with 54~ games remaining.

    I would say he has a good chance to be top 3 at least.
     
  18. Kingsfan1

    Kingsfan1 Registered User

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    Matthews is very good . Heck I was against giving him the Malkin comparison but he has that in the bag already . Big fan of him right now but he is not the best player in the league , nor will he ever be long as Mcdavid is playing . You don’t see Avs fans blowing up the boards with Rantanen and Mackinnon threads every ****en day it’s so annoying lol .

    We should start showing people’s age next to their usernames . Hot damn are all the teenagers in full force from Toronto.
     
  19. authentic

    authentic Registered User

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    Not sure what that has to do with Matthews though, he has 49 goals in his last 76 games.
     
  20. authentic

    authentic Registered User

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    He played 1 period before getting hurt recently. Also this comparison is not a good one considering Matthews was on the 2nd PP unit last season and averaged just 18 minutes a game. I would bet he finishes this season with a similar points per game to those players, especially now that he's going to have a winger to play with comparable to the above players.

    Let's put it this way, he is now not only one of the best even strength scorers which he has been since he came into the NHL, but he's also now one of the best on the powerplay with good linemates to work with in both situations. 15 goals in 14 games. Just enjoy the show.
     
  21. Julio Jones

    Julio Jones Queens BCom/JD

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    He’s played 2 seasons, one of which he was playing at a ppg lmao weak
     
  22. TeddyBare

    TeddyBare Registered User

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    He can and he will
     
  23. snipes

    snipes Registered User

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    Interesting findings. Supports what we all know, he rarely takes slapshots.

    I mean, why would a person take slapshots when his snapshot and wristshots are simply incredible
     
  24. GoBuds14

    GoBuds14 Registered User

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    And who are you to make fun of someone’s looks? Isn’t this a board about hockey, and not childish schoolyard jabs
     
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  25. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    [​IMG]

    On Auston's shooting. Green = goals, Orange=Career S%, Red=Season 2018 S%.

    Grid square= 1 unit %, or goal vertically, GPs horizontally.

    When red season shooting curve converge with orange career shooting curve, we can assume his shooting% for this season is somewhat sustainable. Grey lines are my personal prediction marginals where somewhere in between both shooting curves are going to land at the end of the season when sample set steadily increases. More accurately, somewhere around 16.5%-19.5%. No ******* way the Season's shooting % curve will now go to east on this high level of 30%, when even basic period of heavy oscillations at the start of the small sample isn't over yet.

    Similarly Patrik's Season S% curve trajectory was unnatural during the beginning of the season, hovering far below his career S% curve level. It was easy to see that was unsustainable low for him. 10 more games was enough to fix it above career shooting level (borderline unsustainable currently around 20%). On average it is however within reasonable levels for him, notoriously selective "sniper" who isn't famous for wasting his bullets. Still, Patrik's Season S% still reflect strongly to happenings of one single game at point of game #27.

    Hastily made graph for AM. :)
     
    hockeeyyy likes this.

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