Can AM win the Rocket with his hot start..

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Bronxxx, Dec 5, 2018.

  1. Critical91

    Critical91 Marner, roll a persuasion check

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    Haha love it
     
  2. filinski77

    filinski77 Registered User

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    This is the kinda data I wanted to see, not some gibberish set of "0010020130100010100000002"
     
  3. Connor McConnor

    Connor McConnor Registered User

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    He'll shoot 30% for the rest of the season of course!
     
  4. DanM

    DanM Registered User

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    Haha no, he will not finish with a goal per game, he also missed 14 games with an injury, so he is due to get a little tired.

    What he will do is finish far above a PPG, but will not win the rocket, too much time missed.
     
  5. Critical91

    Critical91 Marner, roll a persuasion check

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    Damn that's pretty interesting for those of us who are visual learners. Some patterns in there pop out.
     
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  6. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    That's GPG average. A player can score same averages being extremely consistent or extremely streaky, and still their GPG is same.

    For example 20 games, 10 goals for two different players.

    Player 1: 01010 10101 01010 10101 = 10G, 0.5GPG
    Player 2: 00000 00000 11111 11111 = 10G, o.5GPG

    Player 1 is much more consistent than player 2, that can be considered very streaky!

    I meant how steady their career goal scoring production on average is, and how their typical goal scoring pattern goes on. GPG rate doesn't say anything about that, as higher or lower rate player can be more streaky and slumpy, or consistent over his career goal scoring set.

    Matthews is very consistent.
     
  7. DanM

    DanM Registered User

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    Fully agreed. Just too much time missed with that injury, plus he is due to slow down, not a cold streak, but after injury many players come back super strong, but get tired at some point.

    He will finish with an impressive point total, well above ppg.

    I think with the time missed, he will play 68 games (if no more injuries happen) I could see him finishing with something stupid like 90 points in 68 games lol
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
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  8. topshelf15

    topshelf15 Registered User

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    The guy is like a younger Stamkos,A true sniping center...Which is pretty rare...He is going to win the rocket,its only a matter of time
     
  9. Randyne

    Randyne Registered User

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    It's more like this
    Player 1: 01110 10101 01010 10101 ~ 0.51
    Player 2: 01010 injury 0101010 ~ o.44
    And it's not goals per game it's 'games with goals per game'.
     
  10. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    Injuries and missed games doesn't inflict either to GPG rate nor goal scoring pattern or it's "streakiness".

    Case example of Patty's streaks and slumps (just calculated for Patrik Laine in HF Jets/partial quote):

    If we make similar calculations for Matthews and OV, we could really compare their "streakiness". Generally, lower both slumps and streaks averages and medians are, less streaky a player is.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
  11. SenzZen

    SenzZen Now Let's See

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    What and what?
     
  12. authentic

    authentic Registered User

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    He won't need to. Nylander is coming back and he'll get a lot more chances at even strength. He won't finish with a goal per game obviously but would anyone really be shocked if he leads in goals by the end of the season? 6 goals is not exactly insurmountable with 54 games left.
     
  13. authentic

    authentic Registered User

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    With Nylander back it will take a lot of pressure off of him too. This season his line hasn't generated nearly as many chances as before. Look for that to change now.
     
  14. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

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    almost no chance. I think he's the best goal scorer in the league, but it's almost impossible to make up for missing 14 games
     
  15. hockeeyyy

    hockeeyyy Registered User

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    This is cool. Well done.

    You can see the patterns pop out a bit. What's interesting is Matthews slumps - they are generally infrequent, but it seems like he's becoming more consistent with his hot streaks. Does that make sense?
     
  16. glucker

    glucker Registered User

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    If, tomorrow, Matthews goes back to his pace from the previous two years, he'll wind up scoring 43 goals.

    If we assume he's found a new gear thanks to his new training regime(which a lot of the stuff we heard over the summer), which is something his start to the seaon would support... and maybe we take into account that his goalscoring pace last year may have been negatively affected by multiple injuries... it's not unrealistic to say that he should outperform his goalscoring pace from the previous two seasons for the remainder of this season.

    His goal scoring pace coming into this season is .514. In order to reach 50 this season, he'd need to be at .648 the rest of the way. That represents a big step back in what he's doing so far this season, and doesn't seem like that unrealistic of a jump for a young player growing.
     
  17. hockeeyyy

    hockeeyyy Registered User

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    While true, we should account for the fact that he did have four straight goalless games before his injury. I think it's safe to say that despite his surge and obvious offensive growth, I don't think he hits 50 unless this pace continues.
     
  18. Yackiberg8

    Yackiberg8 Registered User

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    I guess he’s been on a hot streak since he entered the league then.

    Most GPG since coming into the league, which includes a rookie season. Average player though eh...

    13 goals behind Ovie for the lead in 33 less games.
     
  19. glucker

    glucker Registered User

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    I mean, not being McDavid doesn't mean you're average. There's no doubt that he's the better goalscorer, and it's quite possible he's the best goal scorer in the NHL right now, but as a player, I do think McD is better.
     
  20. BullLund

    BullLund Registered User

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    He probably would have, in any other season, but it seems like a bunch of other goal scorers are hot this season, so it will be tough. Not just Laine, but Point, Pastrnak, Skinner, MacKinnon, etc. and of course, Ovechkin.

    He'll still probably have the most goals per game though, and as long as he doesn't get injured, will probably have a bunch of "Rockets" coming his way throughout his career.
     
  21. glucker

    glucker Registered User

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    Well if his >gpg pace continues, he's hitting over 70.
     
  22. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    Streakiness comparison OV vs AM

    OV:
    200110020020022101100000011100011111101011321001000001111121001001021100000011110 -
    0200011110002201100101110100103110110000012000101111000010000012100012000020000120 -
    0101110110201001111010210210101101010140020111121004021011000000013200210102101120 -
    0200000000011121001310010012021021201100002020023010013101101101011001012110001 -
    212000220022101010110200100211010010011102101011213000000200010010000220 -
    0211000001201001010000000001100000000110010000103000100100101101001000210010001110 -
    001002002001010000001000001001010102210001001010021001001010001002012121000011 -
    000010100011100030000100010111210112032101102110 -
    121101012100210011202100101040111100001001011011200101012010000101002000101010 -
    022100000010002000102100002000010101111101021202020101012110010221100020002120001 -
    1111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 -
    111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 - 3401100100000111000000113011100011000010210010011020001010110210100020011001000112 -
    112002020020110000120111101...


    Slumps (Occasions in 3+ GPs): 33333 33333 33333 33333 33333 33333 44444 44444 44444 44445 55555 55666 66678 99 (67 occasions=275GP)
    Median: 4 GP
    Average: 4.1 GP
    Max: 9 GP (twice)

    Streaks (Occasions in 3+ GPs): 33333 33333333 33333 33333 33333 333333 3333 33344 44444 44444 45555 55566 7 (64 occasions=214GP)
    Median: 3 GP
    Average: 3.34 GP
    Max: 7 GP (once)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    AM:
    40010100000000000002110101020101112222101110001000011002001002100000001010111210010 -
    10112011010101002000001000110201100001101100201000101100110201 -
    21222100000212...

    Slumps
    (Occasions in 3+ GPs): 33346 7(13) (7 occasions=39GP)
    Median: 4 GP
    Average: 5.57 GP
    Max: 13 GP (once)

    Streaks (Occasions in 3+ GPs): 3333568 (7 occasions=31GP)
    Median: 3 GP
    Average: 4.43 GP
    Max: 8 GP (once)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    'Alien' math says that with this resolution (Streak/Slump=3+ GP) Auston is less streaky/slumpy (proportionally more black periods in his career pattern) than OV.

    44.3% Matthews' career games are part of some streak or slump, compared to 47.5% for OV. General appearance of colored patterns also support intuitive first impression.

    Extreme cases of both slumps and streaks influence Matthews' averages more than OV's due considerably smaller sample set.

    Too toily thing to go now to resolution of 2GP (which doesn't constitute any kind streak/slump IMO). :)
     
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  23. hockeeyyy

    hockeeyyy Registered User

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    Yea, 72 or something ridiculous like that. I think it's probably closer to 45-49 as teams are going to start rounding out their defensive play. The question really is now that Nylander is back, whether his offensive game takes off even more than it already has.

    I don't think it will, but I think it will make the line a lot more consistent given that he's been stuck carrying Marleau's nearly dead corpse this season.
     
  24. glucker

    glucker Registered User

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    Yea, as good as Matthews is on his own, Nylander adds a lot to his 5-on-5 game.
     
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  25. Dzonna

    Dzonna Registered User

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    Since he has been back from injury mar 22 (last year lol) he has 21 goals in 24 goals. So what’s your definition of streaky?

    As for the question.. he could win but I think it’s going to be a battle of Ovie and Laine unless Bergeron gets back (Pastranak).
     

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