Can AM win the Rocket with his hot start..

[POVERTY]

If he plays 60+ games he'll finish with 60+ goals so yes ainec

 

[Sky04]

Due for a cold streak unless you're a leafs fans who thinks he'll score gpg the rest of the season. So no.

 

[NightTrain1]

Can? Yes. Very, very unlikely though, especially with how hot the top goal scorers are. 7 guys are on pace for 55+ goals and 3 on pace for 60+

I guess the only question i would have for you and anyone else making this type of claim is, why do other players "paces" matter and Matthews is unlikely? Matthews having missed 13 games is still on pace for 73 goals. He is quite literally the best current goal scorer in the league and since he came into the league is still ever so marginally higher than Laine at .56 goals per game.

 

[Fataldogg]

He will continue his 1.07g/gm pace and score 72 goals. That is the most likely scenario.

 

[Jets]

 

[RageQuit77]

You are just throwing out fantasy numbers. Prove it.

I trust your humanly pattern recognition subroutines like I do to my own. Not going to count through whole data set to nitpick what are exact numbers for each.

Goal scoring career patterns:

OV:
200110020020022101100000011100011111101011321001000001111121001001021100000011110 -
0200011110002201100101110100103110110000012000101111000010000012100012000020000120 -
0101110110201001111010210210101101010140020111121004021011000000013200210102101120 -
0200000000011121001310010012021021201100002020023010013101101101011001012110001 -
212000220022101010110200100211010010011102101011213000000200010010000220 -
0211000001201001010000000001100000000110010000103000100100101101001000210010001110 -
001002002001010000001000001001010102210001001010021001001010001002012121000011 -
000010100011100030000100010111210112032101102110 -
121101012100210011202100101040111100001001011011200101012010000101002000101010 -
022100000010002000102100002000010101111101021202020101012110010221100020002120001 -
1111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 -
111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 - 3401100100000111000000113011100011000010210010011020001010110210100020011001000112 -
1120020200201100001201111...

PL:
1003002000011300010000001210100001010001100110000031102101000100010000200 - 0101002000011111001010000111100001110000000110010110101001111202231110020000000100 -
100010100000311000321502000...

AM:
40010100000000000002110101020101112222101110001000011002001002100000001010111210010 -
10112011010101002000001000110201100001101100201000101100110201 -
21222100000212...

Auston's slumps are shorter, rarer, and more far between than OV's and PL's, but both OV and PL score more per game when they are in their hot streaks/periods.

@OV Fans: it's now about streakiness of these players, not that either AM or PL would be directly comparable in other ways (of course they are, or at least likely will be). It's simply that AM's typical slumps and streaks are shorter than both OV's and PL's and that he has been more consistent in goal scoring then either of other.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Matthews could come back and kill it but it will still be difficult to catch everyone who is now ahead of him. There's 8 guys who have 19-21 goals scored, on a roughly 60 goal pace and while some of them will fall off you have to expect a bunch will keep it up, and 1-2 may even accelerate (Laine or Ovechkin would be the horses to bet on there).

 

[Sam Spade]

Won't be easy but it is pretty ridiculous he's only 6 back with half the games played of everyone else. Leads the whole league in goals per game played since his rookie year (minimum 150 GP).

This is the only issue I see:

Beyond that the Rocket is his.

 

[FalcorMulch]

He can maybe hit 50 but his S% is unsustainable. Matthews having top-3 wrist shot in the league but he is nearly doubling his career average S%. Laine is now having pretty sustainable S%. AM (now 30%, AVG17.2%) Laine (20%, 18.4%).

AM34 averaging 3.57 shots per game. Laine creating more opportunities to shoot with 3.89 per game. I doubt that Matthews could win but it is possible if he is really lucky this year. With full games this could be closer but math says that Laine is clear runner up in this.

He did apparently completely rebuild his shot this summer. But yeah, 30% isn't going to last.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

This is the only issue I see:

View attachment 161809

Beyond that the Rocket is his.

Obviously that number will go down. That said, I'm sure if we pulled up Laine's shooting percentage for November, it was probably ridiculous.

If he stays healthy, it'll be a race.

 

[flamesforcup]

Lmao. I guess his so called streak ends due to injuries just to resume when he comes back. I sure wish he were more consistent than that. What a garbage hot take

Yea i guess thats why he has never even hit 70 points.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If he stays healthy the rest of the year yes he can

 

[FalcorMulch]

I guess the only question i would have for you and anyone else making this type of claim is, why do other players "paces" matter and Matthews is unlikely? Matthews having missed 13 games is still on pace for 73 goals. He is quite literally the best current goal scorer in the league and since he came into the league is still ever so marginally higher than Laine at .56 goals per game.

The other players have maintained their pace through approximately 2x as many games. There are 7 of them, increasing the chances that at least one maintains their pace. Lastly, their paces are far closer to actual goal totals we've seen in the modern era. AM's 15 goals in 14 games is an 88 goal pace in 82 games, 4 shy of Gretzky's single season record.

I'm a Leaf fan, I agree that he's the best goal scorer in the league or at the very least part of a group of 3 that are essentially neck and neck since 2016. But winning the rocket in 68 games (he missed 14 not 13) is next to impossible. It's never been won in less than 74 games and only three times in less than 78 games (74 once, 75 twice).

 

[Notsince67]

Yea i guess thats why he has never even hit 70 points.

Never sounds like a long time given he has only gone through 2 seasons before this one

 

[Goldmember]

I cheer for Laine in the Rocket race but I definitely hope AM stays healthy so we will see what he truly is capable of.

 

[Sam Spade]

Obviously that number will go down. That said, I'm sure if we pulled up Laine's shooting percentage for November, it was probably ridiculous.

If he stays healthy, it'll be a race.

Of course but while Atkinson, Skinner, Matthews, Point are shooting WAY over their normal percentages, Ovechkin is just doing what he always does. I think it will come down to Laine, Matthews and Ovechkin.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Of course but while Skinner, Matthews, Point are shooting WAY over their normal percentages, Ovechkin is just doing what he always does. I think it will come down to Laine, Matthews and Ovechkin.

As it probably should - all else being equal - given they are the top 3 goals scorers since Matthews' rookie campaign.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

The other players have maintained their pace through approximately 2x as many games. There are 7 of them, increasing the chances that at least one maintains their pace. Lastly, their paces are far closer to actual goal totals we've seen in the modern era. AM's 15 goals in 14 games is an 88 goal pace in 82 games, 4 shy of Gretzky's single season record.

I'm a Leaf fan, I agree that he's the best goal scorer in the league or at the very least part of a group of 3 that are essentially neck and neck since 2016. But winning the rocket in 68 games (he missed 14 not 13) is next to impossible. It's never been won in less than 74 games and only three times in less than 78 games (74 once, 75 twice).

Maybe he will manage it. IMO it would be the most impressive rocket ever.
Hockey gods making up for the fact that the Leafs haven't won a individual major award post expansion/pre Matthews

 

[NiL8r87]

It's possible but he won't shoot 30% all year obviously. He's also taking more shots compared to his career average so he'll need to keep doing that for the whole year. The stacked power play is going to help him a ton.

 

[Beukeboom]

May

I trust your humanly pattern recognition subroutines like I do to my own. Not going to count through whole data set to nitpick what are exact numbers for each.

Goal scoring career patterns:

OV:
200110020020022101100000011100011111101011321001000001111121001001021100000011110 -
0200011110002201100101110100103110110000012000101111000010000012100012000020000120 -
0101110110201001111010210210101101010140020111121004021011000000013200210102101120 -
0200000000011121001310010012021021201100002020023010013101101101011001012110001 -
212000220022101010110200100211010010011102101011213000000200010010000220 -
0211000001201001010000000001100000000110010000103000100100101101001000210010001110 -
001002002001010000001000001001010102210001001010021001001010001002012121000011 -
000010100011100030000100010111210112032101102110 -
121101012100210011202100101040111100001001011011200101012010000101002000101010 -
022100000010002000102100002000010101111101021202020101012110010221100020002120001 -
1111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 -
111100001110000110110001100021001210012200110101131021101001000001001000110203 - 3401100100000111000000113011100011000010210010011020001010110210100020011001000112 -
1120020200201100001201111...

PL:
1003002000011300010000001210100001010001100110000031102101000100010000200 - 0101002000011111001010000111100001110000000110010110101001111202231110020000000100 -
100010100000311000321502000...

AM:
40010100000000000002110101020101112222101110001000011002001002100000001010111210010 -
10112011010101002000001000110201100001101100201000101100110201 -
21222100000212...

Auston's slumps are shorter, rarer, and more far between than OV's and PL's, but both OV and PL score more per game when they are in their hot streaks/periods.

@OV Fans: it's now about streakiness of these players, not that either AM or PL would be directly comparable in other ways (of course they are, or at least likely will be). It's simply that AM's typical slumps and streaks are shorter than both OV's and PL's and that he has been more consistent in goal scoring then either of other.

Maybe there is an alien invasion code in all that stuff.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

He’s due for another injury or two this season

 

[filinski77]

That's because OV is "streaky", as we all have used to hear so called pure goal scorers are.

When someone actually bother look these high end pure goal scorers' goal scoring patterns, they most probably realize that so called "streakiness" is mostly product of their above average high scoring games, that also happen more often than average (surprise surprise! due their role).

AM compared to OV and PL as examples is however much more consistent on average in his goal scoring. His streaks are not typically long, but neither his slumps.

Scoring 15 goals in 14 games is the definition of "streaky", because unless over a full season he scores 80+ goals, he is due to miss a handful of games with no goals.

On a 50 goal season, thats a ~0.61 g/gp. Which would equate to 8.5 goals in 14 games if playing consistently over a whole season.

 

[Randyne]

It's simply that AM's typical slumps and streaks are shorter than both OV's and PL's and that he has been more consistent in goal scoring then either of other.

Sorry, Ovi is much more consistent goalscorer.
First three seasons
[games with 1 or more goals] / [games played]:
AO 125/245 = 0.51
AM 70/158 = 0.44
PL 74/182 = 0.40
Even throughout Ovi's long career he is more consistent (0.46)

 

[Mrb1p]

If he plays 60+ games he'll finish with 60+ goals so yes ainec

Nice hell be the first player to score a GPG since Lemieux.

 

[SenzZen]

Who is Bob Kudelski?!

We called him "Cuddles"...

...Wearer of baller-*** jersey.