Cale Makar: 2nd Season Prophecies

Avsboy

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I enjoy how Graves is paid exactly 3.16 million AAV. It's a sign: he has to pray to avoid Seattle.
 

AvsFan29

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I think I’ve posted this exact post before but I rewatched games 3 & 4 of the 2019 Calgary series today and I’m still blown away with how good Makar showed. He was amazing straight out of the gate.
We’re going to see some truly crazy games from him this year. The division is super weak at the bottom.
 

ANewHope

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I wonder if were going to see what we saw in the playoffs in terms of TOI or if that was more due to EJ being hurt. Makar led the team playing 23:41. Obviously a different situation so wonder how it shakes out. If he logs big minutes and is playing 23+ a night he could put up some crazy numbers.

I remember him getting pulled from the PP1 a few times early in the year, and having quite a few games under 20 minutes early.

Either way I was one of the people who assumed he'd trail off eventually so not going to doubt him this year.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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I wonder if were going to see what we saw in the playoffs in terms of TOI or if that was more due to EJ being hurt. Makar led the team playing 23:41. Obviously a different situation so wonder how it shakes out. If he logs big minutes and is playing 23+ a night he could put up some crazy numbers.

I remember him getting pulled from the PP1 a few times early in the year, and having quite a few games under 20 minutes early.

Either way I was one of the people who assumed he'd trail off eventually so not going to doubt him this year.


Technically, he did trail off, by quite a bit actually.

He had 7 Goals and 22 Points in his first 22 games. Then in his final 35 games, just 5 Goals and 28 points. It's a fairly significant drop off both in goals and points.



Be curious to see how he actually performs next year. I have a feeling expectations around here wont come close to being matched. He broke into the league and played to a 70 point pace in his first year. Very few Dmen in the league are even capable of hitting 70 points.


Would not surprise me at all if his production regresses, especially as teams start to plan strategies around him more, and start to learn his tendencies and read his moves more accordingly.
 

ANewHope

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Technically, he did trail off, by quite a bit actually.

He had 7 Goals and 22 Points in his first 22 games. Then in his final 35 games, just 5 Goals and 28 points. It's a fairly significant drop off both in goals and points.



Be curious to see how he actually performs next year. I have a feeling expectations around here wont come close to being matched. He broke into the league and played to a 70 point pace in his first year. Very few Dmen in the league are even capable of hitting 70 points.


Would not surprise me at all if his production regresses, especially as teams start to plan strategies around him more, and start to learn his tendencies and read his moves more accordingly.

I meant early on. I think the original predictions were like 30-35 points, with 40-45 being the best case. I think he had something like 8-10 points in his first 12-13 games and I was one of the people that thought we should keep expectations tempered but than he went on to put up 50 points in 57 games.

He did trail off abit before the season ended like you pointed out but than your completely leaving out out the playoffs which was IMO his best play all season long, and some of the toughest hockey he had to play all year. Especially Dallas in a 7 game series where they would clearly be game planning for him quite abit. He had 15 points in 15 playoff games while having to play more/tougher minutes than he did at the start of the season where he was getting eased in. If he continued trailing off in the playoffs than I'd agree with you but he finished being a PPG D-Man averaging 23+ minutes a night.

Either way he blew away expectations from before the season/first 15 games of the year. I would have been one of the people thinking 30-40 points rather than 50-70.
 
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tigervixxxen

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I don’t think the Avs D is set up for anyone to play like 25+ minutes and it’s probably better that way. So I don’t see a real significant change in Makar’s minutes on the horizon, maybe a touch more at even strength but the way he plays and skates it’s better to keep that explosive dynamic fresh.

Two things that will help Makar’s production is getting the shot volume up and as he gets more comfortable will defer less. Also if the PP ever gets figured out, there’s prob a good 10 points a year he could pick up with just that.

I believe the last game Makar played, that OT win vs the Rangers where he put up 3 points won him the Calder.
 

McMetal

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Depending on how long the season is, I'd say pacing for 70 points is reasonable after his rookie season. Crazy to think that anything less would be a step backwards...
 

Foppa2118

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I don’t think the Avs D is set up for anyone to play like 25+ minutes and it’s probably better that way. So I don’t see a real significant change in Makar’s minutes on the horizon, maybe a touch more at even strength but the way he plays and skates it’s better to keep that explosive dynamic fresh.

Two things that will help Makar’s production is getting the shot volume up and as he gets more comfortable will defer less. Also if the PP ever gets figured out, there’s prob a good 10 points a year he could pick up with just that.

I believe the last game Makar played, that OT win vs the Rangers where he put up 3 points won him the Calder.

I don't now. Cale played 25+ minutes 9 times last year between the regular season and playoffs as a rookie. I'd expect that number to go up at least 2-3 times as he progresses in his career.

He said he's been working very hard on his conditioning in the off season so he can play a lot of minutes next year. I would imagine the coaches told him this specifically.

I've seen in mentioned a few times but I also don't agree with the idea that Cale can't be explosive, and play a lot of minutes at the same time. Maybe if he was older, or not as good an athlete. But he's a really high level athlete who's only 22 years old. He's got plenty of energy.

Look at MacKinnon who's able to play a ton of minutes and still be explosive, because he's young and a high level athlete in great condition.

If Cale is injury free and has a full training camp, I think he'll be fine playing big minutes consistently. He didn't have the benefit of either of those things last year in the playoffs.
 
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Northern Avs Fan

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I just don’t think anyone on this blue line is going to average 25+ in the regular season. The Avs are going to have a pretty solid 3rd pair this year, potentially an elite 3rd pair if Bednar has Toews there. They’ll be rolling three pairs heavily in games where they get 2 goal leads, or back-to-backs.

Makar is probably a safe bet to get up to 22:00 or 22:30 next season. I wouldn’t expect it to go much beyond that if he’s not PK’ing, and the Avs are rolling all three pairs at a decent rate at even strength. In the playoffs I would expect his ice time to increase.

I’m excited to see what Makar brings next season. His skating wasn’t all the way back in the playoffs and he was forced to rely on his passing a lot more. I think that experience will help him in the long run.
 

Foppa2118

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I just don’t think anyone on this blue line is going to average 25+ in the regular season. The Avs are going to have a pretty solid 3rd pair this year, potentially an elite 3rd pair if Bednar has Toews there. They’ll be rolling three pairs heavily in games where they get 2 goal leads, or back-to-backs.

Makar is probably a safe bet to get up to 22:00 or 22:30 next season. I wouldn’t expect it to go much beyond that if he’s not PK’ing, and the Avs are rolling all three pairs at a decent rate at even strength. In the playoffs I would expect his ice time to increase.

I’m excited to see what Makar brings next season. His skating wasn’t all the way back in the playoffs and he was forced to rely on his passing a lot more. I think that experience will help him in the long run.

He played 25+ minutes 9 times last year between the regular season and playoffs without PKing though. He also averaged more PP time as a rookie than any other D man averaging 25 minutes a night.

Obviously it's not the same D core, but Chabot averaged 26 minutes last year, while averaging 15 seconds on the PK.

It'll be tough to get to a full 25 minute average without PKing, but the Avs do need at least one new PKer from last year after Z was traded. They'll need 2 if Cole's not in the lineup.

Toews and Girard haven't really been PKers either, so it's possible Bednar goes with Cale. He'd be ahead of all the other options, if not for the fear of him getting injured blocking a shot or something.

If eh doesn't PK though, you might be right, and he may end up coming just shy of a 25 minute average.
 

Northern Avs Fan

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He played 25+ minutes 9 times last year between the regular season and playoffs without PKing though. He also averaged more PP time as a rookie than any other D man averaging 25 minutes a night.

Obviously it's not the same D core, but Chabot averaged 26 minutes last year, while averaging 15 seconds on the PK.

It'll be tough to get to a full 25 minute average without PKing, but the Avs do need at least one new PKer from last year after Z was traded. They'll need 2 if Cole's not in the lineup.

Toews and Girard haven't really been PKers either, so it's possible Bednar goes with Cale. He'd be ahead of all the other options, if not for the fear of him getting injured blocking a shot or something.

If eh doesn't PK though, you might be right, and he may end up coming just shy of a 25 minute average.

There’s a few outliers, but for the most part the guys that play 25+ have poor defensive depth on their team. A lot of it, is born out of circumstance when you’re talking about that level of ice-time in the regular season.
 

Foppa2118

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One of Girard, Toews or Makar will have to PK.

Yes, but there remain questions unanswered.

Did Bednar not play Makar on the PK because he was a rookie, or because he's worried about him getting injured, or burning him out?

Was Bednar playing Girard on the PK last year in spurts and in the playoffs, a sign that he's one of the first options?

Will Bednar have the same view of Toews on the PK as Barry Trotz, and not play him?

Will Timmins make the team, and does he PK? It will likely be part of his role as an NHLer.

Will Byram make the team, and do they give him a look on the PK as a rookie? At the very least, this also will be part of his role in a year or two.

Will Cole be in the lineup? If not they'll need two new PKers.
 
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The Abusement Park

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Yes, but there remain questions unanswered.

Did Bednar not play Makar on the PK because he was a rookie, or because he's worried about him getting injured, or burning him out?

Was Bednar playing Girard on the PK last year in spurts and in the playoffs, a sign that he's one of the first options?

Will Bednar have the same view of Toews on the PK as Barry Trotz, and not play him?

Will Timmins make the team, and does he PK? It will likely be part of his role as an NHLer.

Will Byram make the team, and do they give him a look on the PK as a rookie? At the very least, this also will be part of his role in a year or two.

Will Cole be in the lineup? If not they'll need two new PKers.
All very good questions. I'm basing it on the lineup where the only changes are the Toews and Z swap which would leave EJ, Graves, and Cole as the main 3 PK'ers.
 

tigervixxxen

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Toews will PK regardless of anything else that happens. His age and the role he was brought in to do. The Avs don’t really care about if they’ve done it previously and Toews’ skill set is a good fit for it.

It’s a a youth thing partially but if Bednar is going to ride the crap out of Girard and Makar at 5v5 plus the PP then there’s others who will PK. I do not think they want a 25+ min guy who does that nightly with PK and PP, they don’t have to. Girard started doing it some when EJ went down. Something like that situation could force their hand again of course.

I think Byram will eventually PK. They practiced him on it a bunch in the summer camp. He prob will have to get to second year pro whenever that is to really do it.
 

Foppa2118

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Toews will PK regardless of anything else that happens. His age and the role he was brought in to do. The Avs don’t really care about if they’ve done it previously and Toews’ skill set is a good fit for it.

It’s a a youth thing partially but if Bednar is going to ride the crap out of Girard and Makar at 5v5 plus the PP then there’s others who will PK. I do not think they want a 25+ min guy who does that nightly with PK and PP, they don’t have to. Girard started doing it some when EJ went down. Something like that situation could force their hand again of course.

I think Byram will eventually PK. They practiced him on it a bunch in the summer camp. He prob will have to get to second year pro whenever that is to really do it.

This is speculation though TV, we don't know these things.

And if you think the Avs don't care about whether someone like Toews has PKed before, why are you so sure they'd wait a year to put Byram on the PK?

Especially when it's a safe bet that Byram plays AHEAD of Toews on the PK sometime soon at the very least.

I think Toews probably plays on the PK ahead of Girard. I'm not sure about Makar/Timmins/Byram though. I think we need training camp/pre-season and maybe the first month of the regular season for the coaches to iron that out.

Going with Makar or Timmins gives them two righties on the PK too, and we know Bednar prefers to have guys on their natural side for clearing attempts, and picking pucks off the wall. Both of which are big parts of the PK.
 

tigervixxxen

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This is speculation though TV, we don't know these things.

And if you think the Avs don't care about whether someone like Toews has PKed before, why are you so sure they'd wait a year to put Byram on the PK?

Especially when it's a safe bet that Byram plays AHEAD of Toews on the PK sometime soon at the very least.

I think Toews probably plays on the PK ahead of Girard. I'm not sure about Makar/Timmins/Byram though. I think we need training camp/pre-season and maybe the first month of the regular season for the coaches to iron that out.

Going with Makar or Timmins gives them two righties on the PK too, and we know Bednar prefers to have guys on their natural side for clearing attempts, and picking pucks off the wall. Both of which are big parts of the PK.
The fact that Toews is 26 years old, they paid a heavy price for him and then made a decent sized commitment to him are facts though. I’m confident in my read of the situation, we’ll see.
 

Muffin

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I started doing a few Mock Fantasy Hockey drafts. ESPN has Graves as their 64th overall ranked player. Just ahead of Braden Point and Miro Heiskanen. :laugh:
Graves is a good fantasy player, nothing wrong with that ranking. He led the league in +/- and is good for a few blocks every game. He also tends to get lots of shots as well.

Believe it or not he has more fantasy points than Makar last year.
 

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