Calculating Magic Number

[Hammer Time]

sportsclubstats simulation thinks pittsburgh can clinch (playoffs, nothing else) with a win against montreal tomorrow.
unlike magic number calculations, it takes into account games played between all teams. Unfortunately it's weighting system probably leads to premature clinches.

edit: nm, last night's simulation puts them back up to 57pts to clinch, which is more reasonable. I think it was glitched because out of 1.8B simulations, only one had pittsburgh just getting 52 points, and that simulation also ended up having them in the playoffs. On the west side it's showing ~60 pts right now. With losses to 9/10 seeds and a few more wins, those three teams should clinch in the first week of april.

Well to be fair Sportsclubstats doesn't calculate mathematical clinches, it just simulates the games 10,000,000 times and then if it can't find a scenario where the team misses, then the "clinch" label goes up. What that really means, "there is a less than 1 in 10,000,000 chance that they will miss the playoffs."

 

[Hammer Time]

Sportsclubstats now shows Penguins as having clinched, the first team to do so, after yesterday's win.

 

[tsanuri]

Sportsclubstats now shows Penguins as having clinched, the first team to do so, after yesterday's win.

That just means that their projections don't show them not making it.
But they are not past the point of the magic number, yet, but are close.
Carolina has 34 points with 15 games remaining so they can get 64 points as of now. So they need a few more points.

 

[wildthing202]

That just means that their projections don't show them not making it.
But they are not past the point of the magic number, yet, but are close.
Carolina has 34 points with 15 games remaining so they can get 64 points as of now. So they need a few more points.

The Rangers are the de-facto 9th seed thanks to GP and without considering who they have to play

Penguins - 56 pts
8 NYR 34 GP 35 pts + 28 possible points = 63
9 NYI 35 GP 35 pts + 26 possible points = 61
10 CAR 33 GP 34 pts + 30 possible points = 64
11 Wash 35 GP 34 pts + 26 possible points = 60


Pens can clinch just by breaking the wins record(Buff & NYR x2) since that would give them 62 knocking out the Islanders and making the Rangers lose at least 2 points(2 OT/SO losses) which would give them a max of 61 vs. the Pens 62.

 

[MNNumbers]

In the West right now:

9 – Edmonton – 37 pts – 35 GP – Max = 63
10 – Columbus – 37 pts – 36 GP – Max = 61
11 – Dallas – 35 pts – 35 GP – Max = 61

8 – St Louis – 38 pts - 34 GP – Max = 66 – Do not play EDM
7 – Detroit – 41 pts – 36 GP – Max = 65 – Do not play EDM
6 – San Jose – 42 pts – 35 GP – Max = 68 – Now we get to no scheduling issues.

Conclusion: The teams currently in playoff position will remain there is they end with 64 pts or more.

Thus, Magic Numbers:

Chicago – 6
Anaheim – 11
Minnesota – 20
Vancouver – 20
Los Angeles – 21
San Jose - 22
Detroit – 23
St Louis – 26

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Head Crusher, just used ur formula, dont know if i did it right, but i was trying to figure out the flyers magic number as of today. is it 40?

Since Philadelphia does not control their own destiny in the playoff picture, they'd have an elimination number but not a magic number.

Since "magic number" is just the number of points needed to clinch a playoff spot, Philadelphia would have one. It would be very difficult to calculate (although a swag wouldn't be horrible).

To be exact, Philadelphia's magic number would be higher than the number of points they could gain by winning all of their remaining games.

So they would need some losses by the 9th highest possible team.

For example, prior to tonight games, the Isles are the 9th highest possible team at 61 points.

So the Flyers magic number would be 29, but they only have 26 points available to them.

Also take note that the 9th team may change as we go along.

So it's inexact that the Flyers magic number would drop by 2 (or 1 in in OT/SO) for every Isles loss. You would have to determine who is the 9th-highest possible team.