C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Ässät, Liiga (2018, 3rd, MTL)

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Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Well, checking the 1st round drafts from 2010 on:

Joel Armia (16th) is a decent grinder with hot streaks here and there, but overall not really a 1st round level guy.
Kasperi Kapanen (22nd) is still behind the curve, even after 2 full seasons (+1 season of 9 games), not really a first rounder.
Jesse Puljujärvi (4th) is dangerously close to a total bust, compared to being a 4th pick. If he doesn't break out in 2018-19, he'll probably be traded somewhere and if that doesn't work, he'll be overseas for good.

Bonus:
Ville Pokka (2nd, 34th) didn't even get a chance and has now moved back overseas.

Odds a 22nd pick plays 100 games in the NHL is 54.2%. Odds they become a top 6 F, Top 4 D is 20.8%.

He's already played 55 games, and will eclipse 100 games by the end of this season, quite easily actually, so he will be at least better than half of the other #22 picks that have been made. We shall see what he can be at his peak, but middle six seems likely, though I doubt he is a legit top six.

----------------------

There is something about Jesper, I don't think Montreal would be nuts to take him with the #3.
 
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BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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Well, checking the 1st round drafts from 2010 on:

Joel Armia (16th) is a decent grinder with hot streaks here and there, but overall not really a 1st round level guy.
Kasperi Kapanen (22nd) is still behind the curve, even after 2 full seasons (+1 season of 9 games), not really a first rounder.
Jesse Puljujärvi (4th) is dangerously close to a total bust, compared to being a 4th pick. If he doesn't break out in 2018-19, he'll probably be traded somewhere and if that doesn't work, he'll be overseas for good.

Bonus:
Ville Pokka (2nd, 34th) didn't even get a chance and has now moved back overseas.

These 1st rounders aren't bust.

+
Laine
Barkov
Ristolainen
Aho
TT
Rantanen
Määttä
Lehkonen
Lindell
from
2012+.
Kids like Heiskanen/Vesalainen& Tolvanen are waiting to join to high end list of young Finnish NHL players, Juolevi could be NHL ready and so on.
 
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MinJaBen

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These 1st rounders aren't bust.

+
Laine
Barkov
Ristolainen
Aho
TT
Rantanen
Määttä
Lehkonen
Lindell
from
2012+.
Kids like Heiskanen/Vesalainen& Tolvanen are waiting to join to high end list of young Finnish NHL players, Juolevi could be NHL ready and so on.

These 1st rounders aren't first rounders....
 
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MinJaBen

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Armia/Kapanen/Pulju?
My mistake. I thought you were listing the first rounders you thought weren't a bust after that statement. Seems the biggest bust is my attention to detail and reading comprehension lately.
 

Qurpiz

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Nov 5, 2006
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Weird, Finns take a lot of heat for hyping their prospects but I don't see that happening here. If anything, most are being carefully cautious.

It's due to the team he plays for. If he played for Kärpät, Tappara, TPS or HIFK, the hype would be ridiculous.
 

BB88

Registered User
Jan 19, 2015
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My mistake. I thought you were listing the first rounders you thought weren't a bust after that statement. Seems the biggest bust is my attention to detail and reading comprehension lately.

Nah, I could have, maybe should have wrote those instead of these.
 
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Runner77

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5th on Craig's list.

But, ya know, ''it's Button'' and all that....

Yeah, the same Craig Button who has Tkachuk ahead of him and your favorite Hayton only 2 spots behind Kotkaniemi.

Yeah, that Craig Button. Cherry picking -- what's that?

1 Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL) D
2 Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie (OHL) RW
3 Filip Zadina Halifax, (QMJHL) RW
4 Brady Tkachuk, Boston U (NCAA) LW
5 Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ässät (SM Liiga) C
6 Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA) D
7 Barrett Hayton, S.S. Marie (OHL) C

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-svechnikov-solidifies-hold-on-second-spot-in-draft-1.1104012
 

voxel

Testicle Terrorist
Feb 14, 2007
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Well, checking the 1st round drafts from 2010 on:

Joel Armia (16th) is a decent grinder with hot streaks here and there, but overall not really a 1st round level guy.
Kasperi Kapanen (22nd) is still behind the curve, even after 2 full seasons (+1 season of 9 games), not really a first rounder.
Jesse Puljujärvi (4th) is dangerously close to a total bust, compared to being a 4th pick. If he doesn't break out in 2018-19, he'll probably be traded somewhere and if that doesn't work, he'll be overseas for good..

If Jesse Puljujärvi is considered close to a total bust then Kapenen is a complete bust already (2 years older, less production in the NHL even with better minutes). Armia is finally putting it together IMO and in that below-average 2011 draft he's not a horrible 1st round pick.. Jets could have busted with Nathan Beaulieu or [URL='http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117532']Mark McNeill or [URL='http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=121437'][URL='http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122895']Stefan Noesen or Tyler Biggs[/URL][/URL][/URL].
 
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NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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Yeah, the same Craig Button who has Tkachuk ahead of him and your favorite Hayton only 2 spots behind Kotkaniemi.

Yeah, that Craig Button. Cherry picking -- what's that?

1 Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL) D
2 Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie (OHL) RW
3 Filip Zadina Halifax, (QMJHL) RW
4 Brady Tkachuk, Boston U (NCAA) LW
5 Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ässät (SM Liiga) C
6 Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA) D
7 Barrett Hayton, S.S. Marie (OHL) C

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-svechnikov-solidifies-hold-on-second-spot-in-draft-1.1104012

What's your point?
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Kotka skating is actually not a concern to me at all anymore. Had a better viewing of him recently, I think it got a bit overblown because people kept hearing his strides looked a bit choppy, but I would say he actually has very good speed, his technic simply needs a bit a work; wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be a fast skater at the NHL level once his skating gets more fluid and gain muscle leg strength. I used to consider his skating as a deficiency in his game (mostly based on what I heard), but now that's not a concern to me anymore, he seems like the complete package. On that basis, that may explain why people kept pointing at his skating; when discussing of a player you always end up identifying the player strengths/weaknesses, but since Kotka doesn't really have any major holes in his game, (remember that people had to justify why he kept on being ranked around 20th overall at the time), people pointed at his skating which looked a bit awkward at times because even though it wasn't really a weakness people needed something to critic him on.

Not the first time I see this pattern happening, when a player has a complete game, the player often end up being associated with a flaw unjustifiably, it gets picked on by the community and everyone comes to identify the player with that said weakness and it becomes overblown. Bad: Skating, IQ, defensive game, compete or too small; sometimes players don't enter in any of those categories, no need to force it.

All in all, he definitely deserves to be in the discussion for 3rd overall imo.
 
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Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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Kotka skating is actually not concern to me at all anymore. Had a better viewing of him recently, I think it got a bit overblown because people kept hearing his strides looked a bit choppy, but I would say he actually has very good speed, his technic simply needs a bit a work; wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be a fast skater at the NHL level once his skating gets more fluid and gain muscle leg strength. I used to consider his skating as deficiency in his game (mostly based on what I heard), but now that's not a concern to me anymore, he seems like the complete package. On that basis, that may explain why people kept pointing at his skating; when discussing of a player you always end up identifying the player strengths/weaknesses, but since Kotka doesn't really have any major holes on his game, (remember that people had to justify why he kept on being ranked around 20th overall at the time), people pointed at his skating which looked a bit awkward at times because even though it wasn't really a weakness people needed something to critic him on.

Not the first time I see this pattern happening, when a player has a complete game, the player often end up being associated with a flaw unjustifiably, it get pick on by the community and everyone comes identify the player with that said weakness and it becomes overblown. Bad: Skating, IQ, defensive game, compete or too small; sometimes players don't enter in any of those categories, no need to force it.

All in all, he definitely deserves to be in the discussion for 3rd overall imo.

And now Craig said it was ok .. so go for him at 3 ... Actually I thin he deserves to be in the conversation a lot of those 3-8 picks are so close
 

Captain Mountain

Formerly Captain Wolverine
Jun 6, 2010
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Yeah, the same Craig Button who has Tkachuk ahead of him and your favorite Hayton only 2 spots behind Kotkaniemi.

Yeah, that Craig Button. Cherry picking -- what's that?

1 Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL) D
2 Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie (OHL) RW
3 Filip Zadina Halifax, (QMJHL) RW
4 Brady Tkachuk, Boston U (NCAA) LW
5 Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ässät (SM Liiga) C
6 Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA) D
7 Barrett Hayton, S.S. Marie (OHL) C

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-svechnikov-solidifies-hold-on-second-spot-in-draft-1.1104012

Pronman has him 4th by the slimmest of margins behind Zadina. Button isn't the only guy that likes him that much.
 

WingsMJN2965

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Oct 13, 2017
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Could be way off, but almost wonder if Detroit interviewed just to put the pressure on MTL/OTT/VAN, (Mostly MTL) to ensure Bouchard falls to them.

... That's the only way I can make sense of them interviewing a center when there will be at least two, probably three of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes available at #6.
 

schnapshot

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Could be way off, but almost wonder if Detroit interviewed just to put the pressure on MTL/OTT/VAN, (Mostly MTL) to ensure Bouchard falls to them.

... That's the only way I can make sense of them interviewing a center when there will be at least two, probably three of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes available at #6.
I don’t think Montreal and Ottawa are going for Bouchard. If Detroit wants him, they’re pretty sure of getting him at 6.
 

93LEAFS

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Could be way off, but almost wonder if Detroit interviewed just to put the pressure on MTL/OTT/VAN, (Mostly MTL) to ensure Bouchard falls to them.

... That's the only way I can make sense of them interviewing a center when there will be at least two, probably three of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes available at #6.
They interviewed anyone who might be in their range realistically.

Interviews help acquire info that can be used later on (for example, the player is on the trade market), and they may actually have Kotkaniemi above all 3 of the defenders listed. Not all teams draft to fix immediate needs.

Also, a team like Detroit, that has 3 picks between 30 and 36, may like the idea of drafting defenders they like in bulk there, while drafting a forward they think is a sure thing at 6. Forwards drafted in the top 10 tend to hit more, whereas elite defenders often get found in the 2nd round. If you are drafting a center, finding a legitimate top line center outside the top 10 is a rarity, and some of the more notable exceptions such as Jeff Carter and Kopitar were taken at 11. The only clear-cut franchise center right now taken outside the top 30 is Bergeron. Guys like Zetterberg have been in the past, and someone like Point, W. Karlsson, Marchessault and Trocheck might be one in the future. Compare that to defense where guys like Keith, Subban, Josi, Weber, Vlasic, Slavin, Letang, Klingberg, etc were all taken in round 2 or later.
 

Kudo Shinichi

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Could be way off, but almost wonder if Detroit interviewed just to put the pressure on MTL/OTT/VAN, (Mostly MTL) to ensure Bouchard falls to them.

... That's the only way I can make sense of them interviewing a center when there will be at least two, probably three of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes available at #6.

Why would it any pressure on Mtl/ottawa?
What the team picking 6th overall wants to do has no impact on the teams picking 3rd and 4th overall.
 

93LEAFS

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Why would it any pressure on Mtl/ottawa?
What the team picking 6th overall wants to do has no impact on the teams picking 3rd and 4th overall.
It does if teams like Montreal or Ottawa are thinking of trading down to 7 and hoping to get Kotkaniemi.

It is typical game theory.
 

Kudo Shinichi

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It does if teams like Montreal or Ottawa are thinking of trading down to 7 and hoping to get Kotkaniemi.

It is typical game theory.

It doesnt really benefit detroit much. Only does if they are scared a team behind them wants to trade up and get the same player they want.

Anyways, I doubt Detroit would have went to dinner with kotka just to play mind games. They must be interested in him.
 
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