C Liam Foudy - London Knights, OHL (2018, 18th, CBJ)

Maladroit

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May 9, 2018
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Why is that? Please elaborate.

Players who score 0.6 points per game in the CHL during their first-time eligible draft year have no business being selected anywhere near the first round. The historical success rate of those players is abysmal. Absolute best case Foudy becomes a fourth liner, the kind of player you can sign for peanuts on the UFA market every summer.
 

RememberTheName

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Jan 5, 2016
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Players who score 0.6 points per game in the CHL during their first-time eligible draft year have no business being selected anywhere near the first round. The historical success rate of those players is abysmal. Absolute best case Foudy becomes a fourth liner, the kind of player you can sign for peanuts on the UFA market every summer.
Have you even seen Foudy play or saw his improvement when he was actually given ice time
 
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ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Players who score 0.6 points per game in the CHL during their first-time eligible draft year have no business being selected anywhere near the first round. The historical success rate of those players is abysmal. Absolute best case Foudy becomes a fourth liner, the kind of player you can sign for peanuts on the UFA market every summer.

Looking purely at numbers is flawed by his restricted one-sided perspective. If you don't factor other variables such as ice-time you increase further the probability of your perspective being invalid/unrepresentative; if you remove the first 35 games of the season where Foudy was buried, Foudy played for 30-20-13-33.

I guess the first half of the season he projects as a 4th line AHLer and the 2nd half as a top6 NHLer... You will arrive to a more accurate estimate in projection if you actually watch the player play before coming to any sort of decisive judgement, crazy idea, I know.
 

Maladroit

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Looking purely at numbers is flawed by his restricted one-sided perspective. If you don't factor other variables such as ice-time you increase further the probability of your perspective being invalid/unrepresentative; if you remove the first 35 games of the season where Foudy was buried, Foudy played for 30-20-13-33.

I guess the first half of the season he projects as a 4th line AHLer and the 2nd half as a top6 NHLer... You will arrive to a more accurate estimate in projection if you actually watch the player play before coming to any sort of decisive judgement, crazy idea, I know.

Even with the cherry picked stats 33 points in 30 games isn't remotely impressive for a first rounder either. Maybe he takes a gigantic leap with more opportunity next season but the odds are stacked heavily against that just looking at historical prospect development curves. It makes no sense to bet on that when forward prospects like Bokk, Kupari and Veleno who project much more comfortably as NHLers were still on the board. Anything can happen but just given what they've accomplished to this point, those three and a number of other forward prospects taken after Foudy such as Berggren and even Akil Thomas are far more likely to make an impact at the NHL level than Foudy.
 
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ProspectsFanatic

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Even with the cherry picked stats 33 points in 30 games isn't remotely impressive for a first rounder either. Maybe he takes a gigantic leap with more opportunity next season but the odds are stacked heavily against that just looking at historical prospect development curves. It makes no sense to bet on that when forward prospects like Bokk, Kupari and Veleno who project much more comfortably as NHLers were still on the board. Anything can happen but just given what they've accomplished to this point, those three and a number of other forward prospects taken after Foudy such as Berggren and even Akil Thomas are far more likely to make an impact at the NHL level than Foudy.

I selected the most relevant data set of a fairly large sample size, I wouldn't call this cherry picking. Also, because I was addressing your flawed statistical interpretation of his, I omitted to say that he is the best skater of the entire draft at the forward position, and since skating is the attribute which has the greatest impact in projection, Foudy future is looking bright IMO. Btw, at the WJC18, when you can have direct comparison, Foudy looked much better than Thomas, no surprise he was selected many ranks in front of him.
 
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Maladroit

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I selected the most relevant data set of a fairly large sample size, I wouldn't call this cherry picking. Also, because I was addressing your flawed statistical interpretation of his, I omitted to say that he is the best skater of the entire draft at the forward position, and since skating is the attribute which has the greatest impact in projection, Foudy future is looking bright IMO. Btw, at the WJC18, when you can have direct comparison, Foudy looked much better than Thomas, no surprise he was selected many ranks in front of him.

Doesn't change the fact that barely eclipsing a point per game in the CHL is not first round worthy production especially when there are clearly more talented forwards still on the board. As for the WJC18, if I were a Blue Jackets fan I'd be extremely concerned that my team's scouts are weighing a five-game sample that heavily. Foudy and Thomas both played in the OHL last season - that's your direct point of comparison and Thomas was significantly more productive.
 

CBJx614

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Our scouts? Basil McRae drafted this kid when he was in London and now works for the Jackets. I highly doubt there's a scouting staff that knows this kid better than the Jackets do.
 

ProspectsFanatic

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Nov 13, 2012
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Doesn't change the fact that barely eclipsing a point per game in the CHL is not first round worthy production especially when there are clearly more talented forwards still on the board. As for the WJC18, if I were a Blue Jackets fan I'd be extremely concerned that my team's scouts are weighing a five-game sample that heavily. Foudy and Thomas both played in the OHL last season - that's your direct point of comparison and Thomas was significantly more productive.

Considering your simple-minded ill-informed PPG analysis, I personally would be extremely concerned if anyone ends up trusting your opinion over theirs.
 
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stevo61

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Isnt his former teammate Robert Thomas considered one of the better prospects in hockey (around 15ish or a little lower) but Foundy with his final 30 games matched Thomas' offensive production in his draft year although as a much better goalscorer. There is a lot of projecting with kids and you cant always look at the point totals, you need to look at how they got those points and how they were used on the ice. Once Foudy got his chance he took off. Dude has amazing skating ability and already has a solid foundation for training like a pro. After the Dubois pick I thought more people would have more belief in Jarmo's staff and give his picks more of a chance
 

stevo61

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Isnt his former teammate Robert Thomas considered one of the better prospects in hockey (around 15ish or a little lower) but Foundy with his final 30 games matched Thomas' offensive production in his draft year although as a much better goalscorer. There is a lot of projecting with kids and you cant always look at the point totals, you need to look at how they got those points and how they were used on the ice. Once Foudy got his chance he took off. Dude has amazing skating ability and already has a solid foundation for training like a pro. After the Dubois pick I thought more people would have more belief in Jarmo's staff and give his picks more of a chance

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cg98

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Doesn't change the fact that barely eclipsing a point per game in the CHL is not first round worthy production especially when there are clearly more talented forwards still on the board. As for the WJC18, if I were a Blue Jackets fan I'd be extremely concerned that my team's scouts are weighing a five-game sample that heavily. Foudy and Thomas both played in the OHL last season - that's your direct point of comparison and Thomas was significantly more productive.
The fact that you judge a players profile and draft stock solely on their point production is ridiculous. Thankfully youre not a scout.
 

Skinnyjimmy08

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Mar 30, 2012
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Foodie? Fowdy? How is it pronounced... Im hoping its Foodie cause thats what ive been saying in my head for a while and i hate when i have to change it
 
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WannabeFinn

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Players who score 0.6 points per game in the CHL during their first-time eligible draft year have no business being selected anywhere near the first round. The historical success rate of those players is abysmal. Absolute best case Foudy becomes a fourth liner, the kind of player you can sign for peanuts on the UFA market every summer.
Sounds like you know a whole lot about the player. We should take you at your word.
 

Jackets16

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Jan 7, 2005
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Doesn't change the fact that barely eclipsing a point per game in the CHL is not first round worthy production especially when there are clearly more talented forwards still on the board. As for the WJC18, if I were a Blue Jackets fan I'd be extremely concerned that my team's scouts are weighing a five-game sample that heavily. Foudy and Thomas both played in the OHL last season - that's your direct point of comparison and Thomas was significantly more productive.

What did you think of Dubois after 2016-2017? My guess is you probably thought he wouldn't be good in the NHL either. You can't use stats to determine a players future potential.
 
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CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
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Even with the cherry picked stats 33 points in 30 games isn't remotely impressive for a first rounder either. Maybe he takes a gigantic leap with more opportunity next season but the odds are stacked heavily against that just looking at historical prospect development curves. It makes no sense to bet on that when forward prospects like Bokk, Kupari and Veleno who project much more comfortably as NHLers were still on the board. Anything can happen but just given what they've accomplished to this point, those three and a number of other forward prospects taken after Foudy such as Berggren and even Akil Thomas are far more likely to make an impact at the NHL level than Foudy.

See you next year.
 

Maladroit

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What did you think of Dubois after 2016-2017? My guess is you probably thought he wouldn't be good in the NHL either. You can't use stats to determine a players future potential.

Dubois scored an insane 1.6 points per game as one of the younger players in his draft year. His closest comparables in recent CHL history were guys like Mackinnon, Hall, Evander Kane and Tavares. Draft year production (adjusted for league, age, time on ice, even strength vs. power play, etc.) is the single best predictor of a player's likelihood of NHL success and based on Dubois' draft year there was almost no doubt he would play in the NHL and a high likelihood he would become an impact player. His 16-17 season was a disappointment but it's much easier to write that off as bad luck or a host of other factors given what he accomplished in his draft year. If anything it probably does suggest to some extent that he maybe got a little fortunate in his draft year and likely means he doesn't have the high-end upside of a Mackinnon or a Hall which I think is a reasonable assessment of Dubois. Foudy is not even a remotely comparable case.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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The fact that you judge a players profile and draft stock solely on their point production is ridiculous. Thankfully youre not a scout.

Exactly. How many great point producers in junior, or even in the AHL.....hundreds at least, never got a sniff in the NHL. Junior points don't mean much as all for projections of what the player will be in the NHL.
 

Red Piller

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May 29, 2013
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This kid is awesome. Coming out of a great program with pro style coaching. Really fast, really skilled. He will get a metric ton of opportunity this year and will destroy the OHL. You cant judge him on his numbers in the first half last year. London traded away all their great players aside from Bouchard and gave opportunity to kids like Foudy and he took off. Great pick by the Jackets.
 

Xoggz22

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Players who score 0.6 points per game in the CHL during their first-time eligible draft year have no business being selected anywhere near the first round. The historical success rate of those players is abysmal. Absolute best case Foudy becomes a fourth liner, the kind of player you can sign for peanuts on the UFA market every summer.
Thanks for the stat watch. How was his late year promotion impact? After the trades? Same scoring rate? Maybe more indicative of his potential? I wad looking for comments on his game, not more notifications about his stats. 4th line at best? Give me a break
 
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CBJx614

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Shoutout to @CBJSTH for doing the original posting

What it's like for defenders trying to stop Foudy out there
tenor.gif






 
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