The Athletic - Boston By the numbers: Offseason grades for all 31 NHL teams

[DKH]

Who was Washington's shut-down guy?

Orlov-Niskanen
Kempny-Carlson
Orpik-Djoos

Defense is definitely their weakness and hopefully something Boston can exploit but their defense is not garbage.

No, because I am a Bruins fan. I'm just being realistic about the current situation. I would love if Toronto regressed this season or struggled mightily defensively I just don't see it right now.

Toronto best chance is to save Cap money they have and pick up expiring FA defenseman next March

I’m ecstatic the Leafs fans have already put chairs along the parade route

Can’t wait for their demise

Can you have a demise when you already suck ?

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I just don't see the need to give him a 5 year deal when you've got prime age Krug, a good young guy in Grzelcyk and Zboril coming (along with Urho). I hope it works out though.

I didn't say Toronto will easily replace JVR's production and I think it would be wrong to say that but they seem more well equipped to do so swapping out Bozak for Tavares. Who Boston's 3C will be is definitely a huge question mark. Tampa seemed to pound Boston's depth in the playoffs and Boston really did nothing when the top line wasn't on the ice.

The B’s FO made it very clear at season’s end that they didn’t feel the left side of the D was big enough for the rigors of playoff hockey. Moore addresses that.

A lot of B’s fans feel that there may be a roster move coming to better explain the Moore signing, but even if there isn’t a move it’s going to be a couple of years before Zboril or UV are ready for Top 4 duty. Moore bridges that gap and then can easily be moved or exposed to the expansion draft when Seattle enters the league.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Basically yeah, you take it for what it is. I just think he's at least an interesting writer and fairly well informed, I disagree some of the negative reaction here and posters discrediting him because he had some harsh words for Boston. Maybe he'll end up being incorrect but at least it reads like there is thought and effort put into it.

I can’t read the entire article without a subscription to the Athletic, but hopefully the thought and effort put in were better than what another Leaf writer, Luke Fox put forward in his article.

 

[DKH]

I can’t read the entire article without a subscription to the Athletic, but hopefully the thought and effort put in were better than what another Leaf writer, Luke Fox put forward in his article.

Leave Luke Fox alone!!!!

His article on the 23 nicknames of the Leafs was adorable.

Reminded me of my youth with Pie, Chief, the Hammer, Big Bird, the Rocket, Terrible Ted, Cheesy, Ratty

 

[EON]

Last Summer was a **** show with Analytics guys explaining his age, competition, like players all leading up him

JAke De BUST

A few of the Analytics guys stayed but they act like they never posted it

Others have left HF

Either their interpretations/opinions were incorrect or the model(s) they used got him wrong. Analytics are not perfect and shouldn't be used on their own but are a valid resource. You shouldn't shy away from an incorrect prediction. But the eye test can often be wrong too.

Toronto best chance is to save Cap money they have and pick up expiring FA defenseman next March

I’m ecstatic the Leafs fans have already put chairs along the parade route

Can’t wait for their demise

Can you have a demise when you already suck ?

Some Leafs fans are certainly over reacting but they were the 6th best team last season and added a borderline top 10 center. That's significant. But they do have a lot to prove, they flamed out hard in game 7.

The B’s FO made it very clear at season’s end that they didn’t feel the left side of the D was big enough for the rigors of playoff hockey. Moore addresses that.

A lot of B’s fans feel that there may be a roster move coming to better explain the Moore signing, but even if there isn’t a move it’s going to be a couple of years before Zboril or UV are ready for Top 4 duty. Moore bridges that gap and then can easily be moved or exposed to the expansion draft when Seattle enters the league.

Maybe but they were also missing Carlo who is a definite upgrade over McQuaid. I'm just concerned about Grzcelyk being pushed out of the lineup or someone playing their off-side. I don't think it would be too difficult to bury that contract or move it it just makes me a little nervous.

I can’t read the entire article without a subscription to the Athletic, but hopefully the thought and effort put in were better than what another Leaf writer, Luke Fox put forward in his article.

I do have an athletic subscription right now and he's one of my favorite writers. I won't deny that some Leafs bias probably leaks through here but most of his articles are very well written and offer an interesting analytics perspective.

 

[DKH]

Either their interpretations/opinions were incorrect or the model(s) they used got him wrong. Analytics are not perfect and shouldn't be used on their own but are a valid resource. You shouldn't shy away from an incorrect prediction. But the eye test can often be wrong too.



Some Leafs fans are certainly over reacting but they were the 6th best team last season and added a borderline top 10 center. That's significant. But they do have a lot to prove, they flamed out hard in game 7.



Maybe but they were also missing Carlo who is a definite upgrade over McQuaid. I'm just concerned about Grzcelyk being pushed out of the lineup or someone playing their off-side. I don't think it would be too difficult to bury that contract or move it it just makes me a little nervous.



I do have an athletic subscription right now and he's one of my favorite writers. I won't deny that some Leafs bias probably leaks through here but most of his articles are very well written and offer an interesting analytics perspective.

Going by the numbers JVR scored about the same amount of goals - they lost Bozak and Komerov

 

[Mainehockey33]

The Leafs would love to be in a position where they have too many capable defenseman. I don’t understand how that’s a bad thing, the best guys will play and the team will be better for it.

 

[EON]

Going by the numbers JVR scored about the same amount of goals - they lost Bozak and Komerov

Komarov is not very good and Babcock routinely over-used him so it's a positive for them to get rid of him. They swapped Bozak for Tavares, a big upgrade. The question mark is replacing JVR's production from within.

 

[Mainehockey33]

Toronto’s biggest issue was their defense and they’ve don’t nothing to address it.

Boston’s biggest issue was size on LD and they sign a guy that might help, plus have prospects that could fill that void.

Toronto gets an A and Boston a D lol

This guy is bias and probably bitter.

 

[Mainehockey33]

Oh and if Carlo actually plays in the playoffs next year and he’s playing like he was down the stretch, then we have that big physical shut down D that we didn’t have vs Toronto and Tampa.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Maybe but they were also missing Carlo who is a definite upgrade over McQuaid. I'm just concerned about Grzcelyk being pushed out of the lineup or someone playing their off-side. I don't think it would be too difficult to bury that contract or move it it just makes me a little nervous.

I don’t think Carlo being out has anything to do with signing Moore. The B’s FO pretty much came out and said having both Grizz and Krug on the left side was an issue.

I’m not sure why you think anyone would be playing their off side (not that it’s an issue for some guys anyway)??

If the B’s go into the season with 8 NHL caliber D, I think Grizz most certainly will be pushed out of the lineup. The start of the season is a long way from now, and I expect a move or two, but as of now, I would go:

Z-Carlo
Moore-McAvoy
Krug-Miller
Grizz-McQ

Carlo needs to develop his overall game and he won’t get better offensively playing with Krug. When paired with Z, he becomes the PMD.

McAvoy gets to face 2nd line competition and puts up better numbers.

Ditto for Krug on the 3rd pair. Grizz was excellent against 3rd line competition, Krug will be even better.

Injuries happen, so I’m sure Grizz and McQ will see action.

 

[bigbizze]

Toronto’s biggest issue was their defense and they’ve don’t nothing to address it.

Boston’s biggest issue was size on LD and they sign a guy that might help, plus have prospects that could fill that void.

Toronto gets an A and Boston a D lol

This guy is bias and probably bitter.

It's more that losing Bozak and JVR is a huge defensive upgrade and basically all of the points they produced are replaced by JVR + replacement level player.

The B's lost a lot of their depth and added an actively bad and negative player, that's why he rated it that way.

 

[Don Cherry]

Personally, I think a D grade was too generous. We signed an antique backup goalie, a so-so defenseman and a 4th liner that doesn't bring toughness or a fear factor. I'd say D- and I feel like I'm being too kind.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Personally, I think a D grade was too generous. We signed an antique backup goalie, a so-so defenseman and a 4th liner that doesn't bring toughness or a fear factor. I'd say D- and I feel like I'm being too kind.

Or we signed a highly experienced backup goalie who at age 33 has shown he can handle a heavy load if needed.
A so so defenseman who brings size and skating ability
A veteran 4th line defensive whiz
A 4th line banger
(and both of the 4th liners are excellent PK guys)

On the other side they lost
A winger who played 11 games in Boston and missed the postseason
A veteran 4th liner who had a career season, and missed much of postseason and was ineffective when played (at least partially due to injury)
A veteran 13th forward.
A very mediocre backup goalie who posted decent numbers in a defensive syste,

You have to factor in and out, and while Boston may not have added a ton, they lost absolutely nothing in terms of playoff performance.

 

[GlenFeatherstone]

The more I read into John Moore’s advanced stats, the more I like him. I saw someone compare him to Seidenberg at the time we acquired the German hammer and how Claude helped turned him into the shutdown D that we loved for years. Wondering if Cassidy can do the same for Moore. Similar paths for him and Seids. Jumped around some in their careers and both have shown shutdown ability

 

[Pia8988]

Personally, I think a D grade was too generous. We signed an antique backup goalie, a so-so defenseman and a 4th liner that doesn't bring toughness or a fear factor. I'd say D- and I feel like I'm being too kind.

Wagner was one of the hit leaders?

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Wagner was one of the hit leaders?

Probably referring to Nordstrom. I'm sure Hughes is well immersed in watching all their games.

 

[Don Cherry]

The more I read into John Moore’s advanced stats, the more I like him. I saw someone compare him to Seidenberg at the time we acquired the German hammer and how Claude helped turned him into the shutdown D that we loved for years. Wondering if Cassidy can do the same for Moore. Similar paths for him and Seids. Jumped around some in their careers and both have shown shutdown ability

This is a good thought. I really liked Seids while he was here.

 

[GordonHowe]

I'm not thrilled with the way the off-season played out, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as this guy says. Besides, I think there's still another shoe left to drop before training camp.

Agree. And, sorry, not a fan of "net gain, 2.5 games." Silly. Like, "If X continues on his current pace, he'll score 40. 3 goals." This is KPD territory. Fancy stats have their value, but I'll take the "eyeball test" every time.

"But his CORSI is..." Blah effing blah.

 

[GordonHowe]

I actually don't think it's unfair. Bruins dropped $8M in cap space and didn't really address any holes from the season previous. $6.5M to guys I don't even expect to see on the ice every night.

That being said, I think I like Moore than most here (I simply dislike the term of his deal and the allocation of cap). I think Wagner is a big addition. I didn't feel backup goal was a hole, but Halak IS an improvement there.

I don't know. Assessment seems both a little harsh and fairly accurate to me.

Don't underestimate the backup goaltending position. I think -- think -- JH is a steal. Overlooking the second tender in Boston would be "penny wise, pound foolish."

Remember, at one point he was a legitimate number one goalie. He will push Rask, and that's key.

 

[Bruinator]

While I agree with this assessment, I do believe Sweeney will make a major move before the team heads to China. That said, I think third in the Atlantic is the most likely slot and then play either Tampa or Toronto in Round One.

By the numbers: Offseason grades for all 31 NHL teams


Boston Bruins: D

In: John Moore, Jaroslav Halak, Chris Wagner
Out: Riley Nash, Rick Nash, Nick Holden, Austin Czarnik, Anton Khudobin, Tommy Wingels, Tim Schaller

Net Value Added: -2.8 wins

The Bruins lost a lot of talented depth pieces this offseason though it was difficult to see them bringing any of them back. Riley Nash is perhaps the biggest loss as he was a key cog in the bottom six last season. It also hurts to see the other Nash go as the Bruins paid a very steep price to acquire him last season and he didn’t really pan out. Austin Czarnik looks like a diamond in the rough, too.

None of this will hurt the Bruins all that much as Boston has internal replacements ready to fill the void, but the team also didn’t do enough to get better going into 2018-19. The Bruins barely beat a Toronto team that landed John Tavares. Tampa Bay embarrassed Boston last season and is sniffing around Erik Karlsson. Even Florida looks like a team on the rise after acquiring Mike Hoffman. Boston? Well, it signed a bottom four defender to an inexplicable five-year deal, so that’s something.

The Atlantic will be a dog fight next season and while the Bruins will be in the thick of it, it’s a bit more difficult to see them at the top after a disappointing offseason.

​

They barely beat a Toronto team that signed John Tavares and also lost its leading goal scorer in James Van Riemsdyk. The only embarrassment in the Boston Tampa Bay series was the play of the officials

 

[mjhfb]

The more I read into John Moore’s advanced stats, the more I like him. I saw someone compare him to Seidenberg at the time we acquired the German hammer and how Claude helped turned him into the shutdown D that we loved for years. Wondering if Cassidy can do the same for Moore. Similar paths for him and Seids. Jumped around some in their careers and both have shown shutdown ability

You might be right but I think Moore has more offensive potential. He seems to have scored a lot of his goals up in the play. I guess it depends on what they ask of him.

 

[DKH]

This thread was July 19 2018 ang like Clark Booth, Fluto, the very young Leafs blogger/lunch guy/college student who last summer put the Bruins prospect group at 14 overall and behind Toronto ~ as well as several since departed HF members; I’m saving this and Luke Fox abomination for summer bonfire reading around next years 4th of July

I’d be embarrassed if I was Leafs fan. These guys need to stick to discussing Radiohead on Twitter or making cute nicknames for the Leafs roster

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

They certainly didn't get better in terms of offseason transactions, but given the amount of talent already in the system, I don't see how they would ever be getting worse as that continues to grow.

It's just a weird chart and doesn't represent much of anything in the end. The Habs and their joke GM being considered "even" tells me about all I need to know regarding any sort of feasible meaning to this study. Perhaps it is quantitatively valid, but the rankings are unlikely to bear any sort of strong correlation to how any of these teams will perform.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

Moore is an established D-man, who you can really justify slotting almost anywhere, at least based on his contract. Basically...if he sinks to a #6 D-man in three years or so...it's not really a big deal. I understand it is a weak way to evaluate a player, but in a lot of ways, it's hard to ever see truly hating the deal which usually is not how I feel regarding almost any sort of contract to a mid-level veteran...