By the Numbers: MTL Canadiens 2016-2017 Season

[CrAzYNiNe]

As some of you know, I have been arguing that the Habs are in dire need of finding ways to improve scoring, as they are often in games where they are unable to score 3 or more goals. I have been challenged that the Habs are not as bad as have indicated, so I have taken the whole NHL and broke it down the same way for all 30 teams.

Legend:

• 3oMG: 3 or more goal Games
• P%3oM: Point % of 3 or more goal games
• P%E3oM: Point % earned in 3 or more goal games
• P%E2oL: Point % earned in 2 or less goal games
• #GP1GoL: # of gameas played while scoring 1 or less goals
• GPvPL: Games played vs playoff teams
• GFvPL: Goals for vs playoff teams
• GAvPL: Goals against vs playoff teams
• AGFvPL: Average goals for vs playoff teams
• AGAvPL: Average against for vs playoff teams

Other Rules:

• For 3 or more goal games, I have included OT winners, as they are still somewhat a team goal, even if it's 3 on 3.
• For SO goals, I have removed them, therefore a 3-2 SO win, is a 2 goal win.
• EN are counted as well, as I was not clicking on 1230 games to find out if any EN happened. If someone has a better way, I would be more than happy to share the spreadsheet (created it on google drive to share with anyone)
• Goals for/against vs playoff teams have all goals, EN, SO. It was a quick formula, again not taking the time to go one by one.

Montreal Canadiens 2016-2017 Findings:

• Habs are ranked 20th in the NHL in 3oMG.
• Habs are ranked 2nd in P%3oM
• Habs are ranked 11th in P%E3oM
• Habs are ranked 7th in P%E2oL
• Habs are ranked 18th in #GP1GoL
• Habs are ranked 25th in AGFvPL
• Habs are ranked 7th in AGAvPL

As I had presumed, the Habs are not only in the bottom half of the NHL in 3 or more goal games (41 games), but they are in the bottom half of the average (42.4 games). With the highest team being an outlier (Penguins at 57), we can look at #2 Minnesota with 50. Some will say that 50 and 41 aren't that far, but in reality they are because the sum of 3 or more goal games and 2 or less goal games sum to 82. 50 games at 3 or more goal games leaves only 32 2 goals or less games. So not only is Minnesota 9 games more in 3 or more goal games, but 9 less in 2 or less goal games. Take this how you want, but the Habs should be shooting for 50+ games where they score 3 or more goals because of their winning % when doing so.

As mentioned at the end of the last paragraph, the Habs are extremely proficient when scoring 3 or more goal games. In the 41 games where they achieved this, they earned 92.68% of the points ((41*2)*92.68%=76 points out of 103 points this season). This percentage shows that when the Habs score goals, they win. I understand that if the Habs played a more open system that was to create more goals, this percentage could fall. That's why I have been very vocal in adding to the top6. The Habs have been unable to keep a solid top6 over the years, pieces in, pieces out. With the acquisition of Drouin, things look good, but he has to keep other pieces for this to not be in vain.

Even with what was mentioned above, the Habs are only 11th in P%E3oM because they simply don't have the number of games other stronger teams have. Every team above them has more games in which they scored 3 or more goals, because the Habs are far too efficient to be 11th in earned points.

As we all know, the Habs are a top team when it comes to 2 goals or less. They ranked 7th in the NHL, 2.5% above the average. Ottawa is the outlier earning 0.257 of their 0.598 point%.

For 1 goal or less games, the Habs come in 18th. This is a concern for scoring consistency as only Ottawa (who excelled in games of 2 goals or less) and Calgary are the only playoff teams below Montreal.

The Habs scoring vs playoff teams is putrid. They rank 25th in the NHL with 2.37 goals per game. Worst of all playoff teams.

The Habs however have great goaltending and are ranked 7th in average goals against vs playoff teams with 2.66.

[table="head;width=2000]NHL Rank| |GP|W|L|OL|PTS|PTS%|GF|GA|SOW|SOL|3oMG|P%3oM|P%E3oM|P%E2oL|#GP1GoL|GPvPL|GFvPL|GAvPL|AGFvPL|AGAvPL
1|Washington Capitals|82|55|19|8|118|0.72|263|182|2|5|49|94.90%|0.5671|0.1529|16|41|130|100|3.17|2.44
2|Pittsburgh Penguins|82|50|21|11|111|0.677|282|234|4|5|57|89.47%|0.6220|0.0550|14|41|126|130|3.07|3.17
3|Chicago Blackhawks|82|50|23|9|109|0.665|244|213|4|1|46|92.39%|0.5183|0.1467|19|42|115|102|2.74|2.43
4|Columbus Blue Jackets|82|50|24|8|108|0.659|249|195|2|2|48|82.29%|0.4817|0.1773|15|42|126|109|3.00|2.60
5|Minnesota Wild|82|49|25|8|106|0.646|266|208|3|2|50|86.00%|0.5244|0.1216|14|42|128|99|3.05|2.36
6|Anaheim Ducks|82|46|23|13|105|0.64|223|200|3|3|42|86.90%|0.4451|0.1949|19|43|115|113|2.67|2.63
7|Edmonton Oilers|82|47|26|9|103|0.628|247|212|4|5|46|81.52%|0.4573|0.1707|16|42|115|115|2.74|2.74
8|Montreal Canadiens|82|47|26|9|103|0.628|226|200|3|2|41|92.68%|0.4634|0.1646|21|41|97|109|2.37|2.66
9|New York Rangers|82|48|28|6|102|0.622|256|220|3|4|48|80.21%|0.4695|0.1525|15|42|126|125|3.00|2.98
10|San Jose Sharks|82|46|29|7|99|0.604|221|201|2|1|43|90.70%|0.4756|0.1284|15|43|105|124|2.44|2.88
11|St. Louis Blues|82|46|29|7|99|0.604|235|218|2|2|48|81.25%|0.4756|0.1284|18|43|119|122|2.77|2.84
12|Ottawa Senators|82|44|28|10|98|0.598|212|214|6|4|34|82.35%|0.3415|0.2565|24|41|111|116|2.71|2.83
13|Boston Bruins|82|44|31|7|95|0.579|234|212|2|3|43|76.74%|0.4024|0.1766|17|40|101|130|2.53|3.25
14|Toronto Maple Leafs|82|40|27|15|95|0.579|251|242|1|8|47|85.11%|0.4878|0.0912|17|40|110|120|2.75|3.00
15|Calgary Flames|82|45|33|4|94|0.573|226|221|4|2|44|79.55%|0.4268|0.1462|22|42|112|128|2.67|3.05
16|Nashville Predators|82|41|29|12|94|0.573|240|224|2|4|44|84.09%|0.4512|0.1218|19|43|125|119|2.91|2.77
17|New York Islanders|82|41|29|12|94|0.573|241|242|2|4|48|80.21%|0.4695|0.1035|13|45|128|132|2.84|2.93
18|Tampa Bay Lightning|82|42|30|10|94|0.573|234|227|4|3|46|79.35%|0.4451|0.1279|23|45|116|140|2.58|3.11
19|Philadelphia Flyers|82|39|33|10|88|0.537|219|236|7|5|43|73.26%|0.3841|0.1529|22|44|111|133|2.52|3.02
20|Carolina Hurricanes|82|36|31|15|87|0.53|215|236|3|6|40|80.00%|0.3902|0.1398|23|44|106|123|2.41|2.80
21|Winnipeg Jets|82|40|35|7|87|0.53|249|256|3|1|48|76.04%|0.4451|0.0849|13|47|134|157|2.85|3.34
22|Los Angeles Kings|82|39|35|8|86|0.524|201|205|2|4|39|83.33%|0.3963|0.1277|27|48|112|117|2.33|2.44
23|Florida Panthers|82|35|36|11|81|0.494|210|237|5|6|34|77.94%|0.3232|0.1708|19|46|117|151|2.54|3.28
24|Dallas Stars|82|34|37|11|79|0.482|223|262|1|2|45|71.11%|0.3902|0.0918|20|47|119|159|2.53|3.38
25|Detroit Red Wings|82|33|36|13|79|0.482|207|244|9|0|41|65.85%|0.3293|0.1527|29|45|107|131|2.38|2.91
26|Buffalo Sabres|82|33|37|12|78|0.476|201|237|2|6|37|77.03%|0.3476|0.1284|28|46|115|135|2.50|2.93
27|Arizona Coyotes|82|30|42|10|70|0.427|197|260|6|2|32|68.75%|0.2683|0.1587|26|47|96|157|2.04|3.34
28|New Jersey Devils|82|28|40|14|70|0.427|183|244|3|3|30|73.33%|0.2683|0.1587|27|45|90|151|2.00|3.36
29|Vancouver Canucks|82|30|43|9|69|0.421|182|243|4|2|31|69.35%|0.2622|0.1588|28|48|91|151|1.90|3.15
30|Colorado Avalanche|82|22|56|4|48|0.293|166|278|1|2|28|62.50%|0.2134|0.0796|30|47|93|177|1.98|3.77
[/table]

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[Be a Hab]

Very interesting. Reinforces the idea that we should re-sign Radulov because he was one of are better offensive players last year. Habs need scoring, we have the best NHL goalie and a very good defense.

 

[Be a Hab]

Also encourages the idea of having a good Powerplay can win you games.

If you are in the top PP% in the NHL you are more likely to have a higher 3oMG. Which in that case would bring our P%E3oM at a higher %.

 

[yianik]

Also encourages the idea of having a good Powerplay can win you games.

If you are in the top PP% in the NHL you are more likely to have a higher 3oMG. Which in that case would bring our P%E3oM at a higher %.

Drouin.

 

[Be a Hab]

Drouin.

True. Drouin finished 16th amoung all NHL players in PP points last year. Excited to watch him play with the habs next year.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Very interesting. Reinforces the idea that we should re-sign Radulov because he was one of are better offensive players last year. Habs need scoring, we have the best NHL goalie and a very good defense.

Re-signing Radulov is very important for the depth of this teams top6. My frustration has grown exponentially since the Habs were eliminated in 2014-2015 playoff against TB because it continued a trend that the Habs can not score against good opponents.

Drouin will help the PP, which will help score anywhere between 10-20 more goals on the PP. But that simply isn't enough. This team needs two top lines with a 3rd line that can bang in goals from time to time (1 every 3 games or so).

In every goal scoring stat, the Habs are in the bottom half of the league and in the bottom 1/4 of playoff teams.

 

[Be a Hab]

This teams top 6 as been quite underwhelming for some time now. It seems like the addition of Radulov and now Druin as solidified are W positions.

Pacioretty Drouin Galchenyuk(?) and Byron and Lehkonen(Who can play both W's) on the left and Radulov Gallagher Shaw who play RW.
That's 8 guys who play Lw or Rw.

We haven't had that type of depth in a long time. Now granted we have re-sign Radulov and Galchenyuk but still.

Looks like MB is going to have to trade some one for a C or a LH PMD who can potentially play with Weber.

 

[Lshap]

This is great stuff. I've just given it a cursory look, but I really appreciate your work and can't wait to dig into this!

Thanks!

 

[Lshap]

The glaring weakness is the Habs' terrible offence against playoff teams. Ironically, two teams they did very well against during the season were NYR and Ottawa -- the theoretical path we should've/could've had to the ECF.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Bumping this.

If Radulov and Markov leave, do you reckon we're in a worse position than last year? How much progression can we expect from Chucky, Danault, Gallagher, and Drouin? If Pleks bounces back, will that ease up the pressure of losing Radulov?

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Bumping this.

If Radulov and Markov leave, do you reckon we're in a worse position than last year? How much progression can we expect from Chucky, Danault, Gallagher, and Drouin? If Pleks bounces back, will that ease up the pressure of losing Radulov?

I find it inconceivable that this years current edition of the Habs have a chance in the playoffs. The Habs will undoubtedly make the playoffs, but once they make it, how will they find scoring? I don't know much about Schlemko or Jerabek and what they may offer for the transition game. I have a good idea that a top pairing of Alzner and Weber will be a lot of dump and chase.

Losing Radulov puts a lot more pressure on the rest of the lineup to perform. We know what pressure does to Pacioretty. Galchenyuk really needs to step up and be that #1 center we are so desperate for. Drouin can replace Radulov numbers, but can he replace his compete level? Gallagher will need to have a bounce back year and get back to scoring 20 goals + 50 points. Lehkonen can be that surprise player. His playoff looked good, he has scoring prowess and has very good defensive coverage for such a young player. I would prefer he be pushed out of a top6 role by having more experience in front of him, however the Habs have enough bottom6 players that it's almost disingenuous to expect him to not start in the top6. Danault in my opinion is in the exact same place as Lehkonen, but he could be a 50 point player, which makes him the ideal 3rd line center on a team that has depth at center...

Hudon is a total wild card. Plekanecs is another. Shaw yet another one. He isn't a top6 player, yet another bottom6. What will Hemsky really bring? By the numbers Hemsky hasn't been a top6 player since the 12-13 season. This smells of Samsonov all over again.

A lot of us knew that MB was banking on Price and the D to shut down the other team. It's clear that he is still going with this plan without adding the necessary fire power to put them over the top.

 

[S Bah]

Going by the numbers, always wondered why Capt. Max Pacioretty wears #67, it's not as though his career as a Hab has been a cakewalk. The "Wolverine" a name well earned not just due to being a Michigan Wolverine, as most Habs fans are well aware. Max's trek as a Hab has been fraught with many injuries that would stop most hockey players, he's actually thrived becoming one of the best PWF's in the game. Being a Habs Capt. wearing #67, a season many of us would sooner forget, the Expo 67. Obviously not the reason for wearing the number, the hardworking Player's Choice for Captain in Montreal is not to be taken lightly, IMHO Max is a great Captain & family man first, as his teammates could vouch for in a heartbeat. I can't even begin to imagine the pressure & don't want to go into more.

Just a head's up to Max, whom I believe is a great Habs Captain and wish for him & Crew a great summer and great year!!!...

 

[Lshap]

I find it inconceivable that this years current edition of the Habs have a chance in the playoffs. The Habs will undoubtedly make the playoffs, but once they make it, how will they find scoring? I don't know much about Schlemko or Jerabek and what they may offer for the transition game. I have a good idea that a top pairing of Alzner and Weber will be a lot of dump and chase.

Losing Radulov puts a lot more pressure on the rest of the lineup to perform. We know what pressure does to Pacioretty. Galchenyuk really needs to step up and be that #1 center we are so desperate for. Drouin can replace Radulov numbers, but can he replace his compete level? Gallagher will need to have a bounce back year and get back to scoring 20 goals + 50 points. Lehkonen can be that surprise player. His playoff looked good, he has scoring prowess and has very good defensive coverage for such a young player. I would prefer he be pushed out of a top6 role by having more experience in front of him, however the Habs have enough bottom6 players that it's almost disingenuous to expect him to not start in the top6. Danault in my opinion is in the exact same place as Lehkonen, but he could be a 50 point player, which makes him the ideal 3rd line center on a team that has depth at center...

Hudon is a total wild card. Plekanecs is another. Shaw yet another one. He isn't a top6 player, yet another bottom6. What will Hemsky really bring? By the numbers Hemsky hasn't been a top6 player since the 12-13 season. This smells of Samsonov all over again.

A lot of us knew that MB was banking on Price and the D to shut down the other team. It's clear that he is still going with this plan without adding the necessary fire power to put them over the top.

I'm less worried about the D. The upside to our physically larger 'vision' guys is that they transition really well. Habs don't get stuck in their zone nearly as often. Puck movement wasn't a problem, and in fact was really good once Julien took over. Our D was much better coordinated with the forwards, so even if Weber himself didn't move as fast, the puck did.

But yeah, any chance we have in the playoffs depends on converting chances into actual goals. We can gain the zone, we can set up and we can shoot, but we make every goalie look like frikkin Hasek because of lack of hands to shoot, tip or deflect the puck into the damn net. That's on the talent up-front. On paper, it looks like Habs offence is very slightly better, but you ask a fair question whether Drouin can step up as Radulov did. No idea how it'll spin out with him, Hemsky, and next year's version of Lehkonen, Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Pacioretty.

One problem we may have addressed is the power-play, which has been (I think) worst among playoff teams. Drouin is supposed to be great at this.

 

[Habs Icing]

I find it inconceivable that this years current edition of the Habs have a chance in the playoffs. The Habs will undoubtedly make the playoffs, but once they make it, how will they find scoring? I don't know much about Schlemko or Jerabek and what they may offer for the transition game. I have a good idea that a top pairing of Alzner and Weber will be a lot of dump and chase.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHVjs4aobqs

 

[Sorinth]

Didn't see this the first time. Thanks for all the work.

We are one of the teams most reliant on scoring 3 goals to win games, yet we are in the bottom half of the league in terms of actually doing it. It was obvious watching the team, but it's glaring in these stats that we needed to add players that made it more likely we score that 3rd goal as we are virtually unstoppable when we do. Yet it seems Bergevin decided that instead of trying to win 3-2 we should try to win 2-1. Considering we were already near the top of league at winning with 2 goals or less, it's another case of Bergevin ignoring the real problem to fix something that doesn't need to be fixed.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

I'm less worried about the D. The upside to our physically larger 'vision' guys is that they transition really well. Habs don't get stuck in their zone nearly as often. Puck movement wasn't a problem, and in fact was really good once Julien took over. Our D was much better coordinated with the forwards, so even if Weber himself didn't move as fast, the puck did.

But yeah, any chance we have in the playoffs depends on converting chances into actual goals. We can gain the zone, we can set up and we can shoot, but we make every goalie look like frikkin Hasek because of lack of hands to shoot, tip or deflect the puck into the damn net. That's on the talent up-front. On paper, it looks like Habs offence is very slightly better, but you ask a fair question whether Drouin can step up as Radulov did. No idea how it'll spin out with him, Hemsky, and next year's version of Lehkonen, Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Pacioretty.

One problem we may have addressed is the power-play, which has been (I think) worst among playoff teams. Drouin is supposed to be great at this.

The transition out of the zone leads to a dump and chase style. The Habs have few if any puck retrievers in their top6. I am extremely concerned about this.

Drouin should fit in well, but is he what this team needs? I am all for talented wingers, but this team is in dire need of a center. I will not ignore the positives he brings, but it continues to show me that MBs plan is more about politics then it is about icing a Stanley Cup champion team.

Didn't see this the first time. Thanks for all the work.

We are one of the teams most reliant on scoring 3 goals to win games, yet we are in the bottom half of the league in terms of actually doing it. It was obvious watching the team, but it's glaring in these stats that we needed to add players that made it more likely we score that 3rd goal as we are virtually unstoppable when we do. Yet it seems Bergevin decided that instead of trying to win 3-2 we should try to win 2-1. Considering we were already near the top of league at winning with 2 goals or less, it's another case of Bergevin ignoring the real problem to fix something that doesn't need to be fixed.

Thanks. It's hard to watch him stagnate when it comes to adding to the top6. With the Drouin trade, for it to be a homerun, he would have needed to flip another winger for a center and sign Radulov. Well suffice to say, that homerun was nothing more than a single.

Year in and year out I have expectations for the Habs and year in and year out I am disappointed (I was ok with MB until the loss to the Lighting in the 2014-2015 playoffs). Tabulating the output of the top9 has in fact deteriorated over time. Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais were both top6 players when MB came in. They are now irrelevant and gone. Replaced by Paul Byron, Phillip Danault. Danault did not achieve a PPG good enough to be considered a top6 player, however very close. (0.488) (top3 player is PPG over 0.8, top6 is PPG over 0.5 and top9 is PPG over 0.35)

Pacioretty has been the only top3 player on the Habs roster since MB took over, except in 2015-2016.

Plekanec has been a top6 every year except 2016-2017. Also you need to take into account Plekanec having 24 points in his first 26 games of 2015-2016, where he struggled with the team scoring only 30 points in the final 56 games. In some other research I have done, I noticed that when Plekanecs is not playing with Pacioretty, his stats have significantly dropped off. This is my main concern for those who believe he can rebound offensively.

Desharnais was a top6 player in MBs first 3 years.

Gallagher in his young career has bounced around quite a bit within the top6, some year he is in the top of the spectrum, other years bottom of the spectrum. 2016-2017 was his first season not averaging a point production of a top6 player.

Galchenyuk is in the same mold as Gallagher, except his only non top6 season was in 2013-2014. Last season he was the 2nd most productive forward behind Pacioretty.

Here is a simple table I created:

2016-2017|PPG|2015-2016|PPG|2014-2015|PPG|2013-2014|PPG|2013|PPG
Max Pacioretty|0.827|Max Pacioretty|0.780|Max Pacioretty|0.838|Thomas Vanek|0.833|Max Pacioretty|0.886
Alex Galchenyuk|0.721|Brendan Gallagher|0.755|Tomas Plekanec|0.732|Max Pacioretty|0.822|Michael Ryder|0.778
Alexander Radulov|0.711|Alex Galchenyuk|0.683|David Desharnais|0.585|David Desharnais|0.658|Tomas Plekanec|0.702
Paul Byron|0.531|Tomas Plekanec|0.659|Alex Galchenyuk|0.575|Tomas Plekanec|0.531|Lars Eller|0.652
Phillip Danault|0.488|Dale Weise|0.464|Brendan Gallagher|0.573|Brendan Gallagher|0.506|Brendan Gallagher|0.636
Brendan Gallagher|0.453|David Desharnais|0.446|P.A. Parenteau|0.393|Brian Gionta|0.494|David Desharnais|0.583
Andrew Shaw|0.426|Daniel Carr|0.391|Dale Weise|0.367|Alex Galchenyuk|0.477|Alex Galchenyuk|0.563
Artturi Lehkonen|0.384|Sven Andrighetto|0.386|Lars Eller|0.351|Daniel Briere|0.362|Brian Gionta|0.542
Tomas Plekanec|0.359|Tomas Fleischmann|0.351|Jiri Sekac|0.320|Lars Eller|0.338|Rene Bourque|0.481

It's a revolving door of top6 talent and failed top6 acquisitions (Briere, PAP, Semin, Hemsky?). Radulov was a huge success, but like I mentioned above, Plekanec plummeted, Gallagher struggled. Byron picked up his game, but that was it. 4 players averaging top6 numbers is just not enough.

Disclaimer: I know that what I show here is not proof by any means that the Habs will not ice a quality top6 this season. However what it does show is MBs inability to bring in top6 players, only 2 in 5 years, while retaining neither. This is undeniable problem that looks to persist into this season.

 

[Sorinth]

Thanks. It's hard to watch him stagnate when it comes to adding to the top6. With the Drouin trade, for it to be a homerun, he would have needed to flip another winger for a center and sign Radulov. Well suffice to say, that homerun was nothing more than a single.

I don't even think he needed to add a center, simply acquiring Drouin and re-signing Radulov would've been enough to give us a very strong top-6. But it's something we've seen over and over again, Bergevin doesn't add he simply swaps. Whether it's Subban for Weber, Eller for Shaw, or now Drouin for Radulov. And that doesn't even include his failures like Cole->Ryder->Briere->Parenteau->Semin.

This all stems from his inability to evaluate talent. The first sign was the bridge deal with Subban, but every year since he's shown he has problems evaluating the skill players. That to me is the #1 reason he should be fired, he just can't see beyond what he was as a player.

Year in and year out I have expectations for the Habs and year in and year out I am disappointed (I was ok with MB until the loss to the Lighting in the 2014-2015 playoffs). Tabulating the output of the top9 has in fact deteriorated over time. Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais were both top6 players when MB came in. They are now irrelevant and gone. Replaced by Paul Byron, Phillip Danault. Danault did not achieve a PPG good enough to be considered a top6 player, however very close. (0.488) (top3 player is PPG over 0.8, top6 is PPG over 0.5 and top9 is PPG over 0.35)

If Danault can consistently produce 40+ points he's a top-6 player in my book. The real question facing us is can he do that without Pacioretty/Radulov as his wingers. If he can produce those numbers without our best players I don't have an issue with him in the top-6, if he needs those types of players to produce then we are in the same situation as we were with Desharnais which is not good. The one thing working in his favour is that he produced last season without much PP time. If he is given PP time and can for instance provide Plekanec level PP numbers then he's a legitimate top-6 player.

Pacioretty has been the only top3 player on the Habs roster since MB took over, except in 2015-2016.

Plekanec has been a top6 every year except 2016-2017. Also you need to take into account Plekanec having 24 points in his first 26 games of 2015-2016, where he struggled with the team scoring only 30 points in the final 56 games. In some other research I have done, I noticed that when Plekanecs is not playing with Pacioretty, his stats have significantly dropped off. This is my main concern for those who believe he can rebound offensively.

I don't have much hope for Plekanec, but he does have a history of bouncing back from terrible years. But probably the #1 factor in him rebounding is PP time, and I think he'll have issues getting a regular spot.

Desharnais was a top6 player in MBs first 3 years.

Gallagher in his young career has bounced around quite a bit within the top6, some year he is in the top of the spectrum, other years bottom of the spectrum. 2016-2017 was his first season not averaging a point production of a top6 player.

Galchenyuk is in the same mold as Gallagher, except his only non top6 season was in 2013-2014. Last season he was the 2nd most productive forward behind Pacioretty.

Here is a simple table I created:

2016-2017|PPG|2015-2016|PPG|2014-2015|PPG|2013-2014|PPG|2013|PPG
Max Pacioretty|0.827|Max Pacioretty|0.780|Max Pacioretty|0.838|Thomas Vanek|0.833|Max Pacioretty|0.886
Alex Galchenyuk|0.721|Brendan Gallagher|0.755|Tomas Plekanec|0.732|Max Pacioretty|0.822|Michael Ryder|0.778
Alexander Radulov|0.711|Alex Galchenyuk|0.683|David Desharnais|0.585|David Desharnais|0.658|Tomas Plekanec|0.702
Paul Byron|0.531|Tomas Plekanec|0.659|Alex Galchenyuk|0.575|Tomas Plekanec|0.531|Lars Eller|0.652
Phillip Danault|0.488|Dale Weise|0.464|Brendan Gallagher|0.573|Brendan Gallagher|0.506|Brendan Gallagher|0.636
Brendan Gallagher|0.453|David Desharnais|0.446|P.A. Parenteau|0.393|Brian Gionta|0.494|David Desharnais|0.583
Andrew Shaw|0.426|Daniel Carr|0.391|Dale Weise|0.367|Alex Galchenyuk|0.477|Alex Galchenyuk|0.563
Artturi Lehkonen|0.384|Sven Andrighetto|0.386|Lars Eller|0.351|Daniel Briere|0.362|Brian Gionta|0.542
Tomas Plekanec|0.359|Tomas Fleischmann|0.351|Jiri Sekac|0.320|Lars Eller|0.338|Rene Bourque|0.481

It's a revolving door of top6 talent and failed top6 acquisitions (Briere, PAP, Semin, Hemsky?). Radulov was a huge success, but like I mentioned above, Plekanec plummeted, Gallagher struggled. Byron picked up his game, but that was it. 4 players averaging top6 numbers is just not enough.

Disclaimer: I know that what I show here is not proof by any means that the Habs will not ice a quality top6 this season. However what it does show is MBs inability to bring in top6 players, only 2 in 5 years, while retaining neither. This is undeniable problem that looks to persist into this season.

Agreed, it's been a revolving door of "project" players, the real issue is that even the guys who worked out were not retained. He's at last gone out and comitted to a top-6 player long term (Drouin). But by letting Radulov walk it's basically one step forward two steps back.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

I don't even think he needed to add a center, simply acquiring Drouin and re-signing Radulov would've been enough to give us a very strong top-6. But it's something we've seen over and over again, Bergevin doesn't add he simply swaps. Whether it's Subban for Weber, Eller for Shaw, or now Drouin for Radulov. And that doesn't even include his failures like Cole->Ryder->Briere->Parenteau->Semin.

I truly believe we need to add at least one center while playing either Galchenyuk or Drouin at center. Danault seems to be a great pickup, but I would prefer he play in the #3 spot with Plekanec shipped out of town. I would love to see the depth chart that MB has up on his wall in his office, who has has slotted in the #1C role. Is it Danault? Is it Galchenyuk who he said should not play center? Is it Drouin because just what the Habs need is another project at C?

This all stems from his inability to evaluate talent. The first sign was the bridge deal with Subban, but every year since he's shown he has problems evaluating the skill players. That to me is the #1 reason he should be fired, he just can't see beyond what he was as a player.

Don't even get me started on that... I have lengthy posts on this forum about why Subban deserved at least 4M in the 2013 season, signing him long term to a 5M or 6M contract was so obvious at that moment... I have no idea what he was thinking be doing that bridge deal. Even worse would be his judge of character: hiring Therrien.

If Danault can consistently produce 40+ points he's a top-6 player in my book. The real question facing us is can he do that without Pacioretty/Radulov as his wingers. If he can produce those numbers without our best players I don't have an issue with him in the top-6, if he needs those types of players to produce then we are in the same situation as we were with Desharnais which is not good. The one thing working in his favour is that he produced last season without much PP time. If he is given PP time and can for instance provide Plekanec level PP numbers then he's a legitimate top-6 player.

I don't have much hope for Plekanec, but he does have a history of bouncing back from terrible years. But probably the #1 factor in him rebounding is PP time, and I think he'll have issues getting a regular spot.

While I have no problem with Danault earning his top6 C role, he simply didn't do that last year. It's yet another scenario of "who is the least bad". I am glad he was able to play under the pressure in that role, but does that mean he deserves it? I looked at the numbers and they are not flattering with Danault as the Habs topC:

Good point.

First 13 games of the season, he was on the wing playing with Mitchell.

Habs went 11-1-1 in those 13 games.

It was only game 30 where Pacioretty - Danault - Radulov became a line
So in the first 29 games, the Habs were 19-6-4

Pacioretty - Danault - Radulov played together with this line having the most ice time 35 times last year with a record of 19-14-2

Definitely not a division winners with a record like that.

Agreed, it's been a revolving door of "project" players, the real issue is that even the guys who worked out were not retained. He's at last gone out and comitted to a top-6 player long term (Drouin). But by letting Radulov walk it's basically one step forward two steps back.

I wouldn't say its two steps back, but we are in the exact same spot offensively as we were last year.

 

[Sorinth]

I truly believe we need to add at least one center while playing either Galchenyuk or Drouin at center. Danault seems to be a great pickup, but I would prefer he play in the #3 spot with Plekanec shipped out of town. I would love to see the depth chart that MB has up on his wall in his office, who has has slotted in the #1C role. Is it Danault? Is it Galchenyuk who he said should not play center? Is it Drouin because just what the Habs need is another project at C?


While I have no problem with Danault earning his top6 C role, he simply didn't do that last year. It's yet another scenario of "who is the least bad". I am glad he was able to play under the pressure in that role, but does that mean he deserves it? I looked at the numbers and they are not flattering with Danault as the Habs topC:

Danault was tied for 138th in scoring by forwards in the NHL last year. There are 180 spots, so he's essentially an average 2nd liner in terms of production last season. Now an argument can be made that he was carried by Pacioretty/Radulov but at this point we can't say for sure one way or the other whether he can repeat without those advantages. But if he can produce similar #s without elite linemates then he's for sure a top-6 guy.

The real issue is that him and Byron were our 4th/5th most productive forwards. Having 3 forwards produce 40ish points or less is a big problem. If we had enough better top-6 players to push them down a peg or two we would be in a good spot even though they might still be in our top-6.

I wouldn't say its two steps back, but we are in the exact same spot offensively as we were last year.

We a very good prospect, and our in the same spot, that's a step back in my mind. Especially since that prospect had a pretty good chance to make the NHL this season. On top of that we lost Beaulieu, and at least for now Markov and that for sure hurts our offence.