Speculation: Buyouts in the 2020 offseason

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by obey86, May 29, 2019.

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  1. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    Does it make sense to buy someone out in the 2020 offseason? To me, Abdelkader or Nielsen look like good candidates, especially Nielsen. A 666k cap hit for 2 seasons (penalty for the buyout) is basically nothing.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-29 at 8.15.42 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2019-05-29 at 8.14.20 AM.png
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2019
  2. ThankGord

    ThankGord Registered User

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    I wouldn't buy out Frans yet. We can still use him at 2 or 3c and the contract isn't causing problems yet, maybe in the future.

    Abby I might consider, but I see him getting one more chance and maybe getting waived if he keeps struggling.

    Edit: Just noticed you're talking 2020. That definitely increases the chances.
     
  3. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    I was speculating for the 2020 offseason FWIW, not this offseason. Daley and Ericsson's contracts will have expired by then.
     
  4. Winger98

    Winger98 Moderator

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    I think we could eat a chunk of Nielsen's contract and deal him at that point. I'm generally not a fan of buying anyone out, though. I don't think we'll be in that tight of a roster crunch, and if we are there will probably be room to just bury one of these guys.
     
  5. The Zetterberg Era

    The Zetterberg Era The Captain is Home!

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    Nielsen roster bonuses on July 1st of next off-season leaving only 5.5 in real money to be paid out for his final two years. I think that contract is a great deal more moveable than most of this fan-base does as soon as that roster bonus happens.

    Abdelkader's contract is a lot worse. But I am not a fan of buying out guys. We still have Weiss on our cap until the end of next year. We might need to consider it with Abdelkader, but I just prefer burying him in the AHL and replacing him with an ELC player and getting his cap out of the system as soon as possible. We aren't contending yet, so a buyout to remain relevant isn't something I really endorse. That could change down the line if we need to free some money for one our young guys to extend, but I don't think we will be there next summer. If it does come time to needing to create that little bit of room I would consider buying out Abdelkader though, he has not been up to playing NHL caliber hockey for as much as we might gripe about Frans the dude is still a NHL player just not as good as we hoped.
     
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  6. The Zermanator

    The Zermanator In Yzerman We Trust

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    Like others have said Nielsen can be managed easier by trading with retention. So buyout isn't even the best option if getting rid of him becomes a priority.

    Abdelkader on the other hand, absolutely not. I really really really don't want Abdelkader still on the payroll in 2025/26 taking a million off the cap. That's a situation where Wings management are best off just taking their medicine and learning their lesson. Obviously new management now but hopefully Abby's contract serves as a daily reminder not to overcommit to bottom 6 supporting players.
     
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  7. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    How much do you think the Wings would have to retain to trade Nielsen in the 2020 offseason?
     
  8. The Zermanator

    The Zermanator In Yzerman We Trust

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    Well if TZE is correct then it may not take much of anything. But if it does I can't see it taking any more than 1-2M for 2 years of Nielsen.
     
  9. Rzombo4 prez

    Rzombo4 prez Registered User

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    Are people really expecting Nielsen to play out the remainder of his contract?
     
  10. SirloinUB

    SirloinUB Registered User

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    Looking at this buying out Abdelkader makes little sense to me. So the Savings breakdown is as follows:
    1,800,000
    2,300,000
    2,300,000
    1,055,000
    1,055,000
    1,055,000

    The two years of saving 2 + are nice I guess but the reality is we are not under a cap crunch for any of the next 3 seasons and in the long run you really aren’t ahead. Moreover, you still need to replace Abdelkader. For the sake of argument let’s assume he is replaced at league minimum. Here are your true net savings:
    1,100,000
    1,550,000
    1,550,000
    250,000
    305,000
    305,000

    I know you guys love to pile on to abdelkader and especially his contract but buying him out doesn’t really help us out at all.
     
  11. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but Nielsen is going to have a cap recapture penalty if he were to retire prior to the end of the contract. His paid base salary in the final two years are 2.5 and 1.5 (he received 2.5 and 1.5 as a signing bonus up front), but it's reasonable to think he isn't too excited to stick around at the ages of 36-38 to make $4 million total. If he does retire after this year, his recapture penalty would be like $1.25M per year, or $2.25M if he retires with one year remaining. He's been pretty healthy as well, so I don't see a LTIR avenue to pursue, at least at this moment.

    General consensus is right. Try to find a trade partner after 2019-20 and flip Nielsen with max retention at a cap hit of $2.625M and actual salary of $1.25M and $750k. Although I question whether or not there is even any trade value there.
     
  12. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

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    He doesn't get his signing bonus's until July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021.
     
  13. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    So I guess the real concern would be the final year of the contract when his salary drops to $3M. And he's 37 going on 38. Either way, the recapture was calculated using total salary, including signing bonuses, so the penalty wouldn't change. It just changes the perspective of how much he is set to earn and whether or not it entices him to return or retire.
     
  14. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    No need for buyouts.

    We can eat these caphits short-term, so there's no need to split them long-term.

    Trades with retention maybe.
     
  15. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    It's more about getting him off the roster for 3 additional seasons rather than any huge savings. No one is trading for Abdelkader, and despite everyone wanting to send him to the minors I doubt the Red Wings do that either (for better or worse). So he's either here playing every night (again, for better or worse that's what's likely going to happen) or you buy him out (for minimal savings, as you noted)....those are likely your options.

    In 2 years the Wings better be competing for the playoffs (or the rebuild likely failed) and I don't want Abdelkader playing every night personally.
     
  16. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    If you trade him, the cap recapture issue in the case of a retirement still doesn't go away though. If he was traded and then retires, the Wings still get hit with recapture. That being said, I don't see him retiring honestly.
     
  17. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    The overall point being there's a better chance of him hanging around if we could move him to a playoff contender at 50% retained. After this season, we may be in a better position, but still his chances would be better elsewhere. Maybe in Toronto with his buddy Tavares once they get some cap issues resolved, with Marleau expiring, Muzzin expiring, the moves yet to be made this offseason to clear up cap space for Marner's contract.
     
  18. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

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    Right, and 3 million is pretty enticing to keep playing. He has bee pretty healthy. I don't see him retiring early.
     
  19. Oddbob

    Oddbob Registered User

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    Why would there be a recapture penalty for Nielsen? He signed as a 32 year old, aren't recapture penalties only for 35+ deals?
     
  20. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    There's no recapture penalty for any contract signed after the 2013 lockout.
     
  21. The Zetterberg Era

    The Zetterberg Era The Captain is Home!

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    Actually your last three seasons should all be negative from the get go, so whatever replaces him is added on top. Like what is currently happening with Weiss.
     
  22. DetroitRed

    DetroitRed Crashes the Crease

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    Maybe you could just repeatedly assign one or both to Grand Rapids, in hopes that they get sick of it and retire early.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2019
  23. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    This is not true.

    If a player signed a 3 year deal with yearly salaries of 6, 3, and 3 (4M cap hit per season) and retired after 1 season there would be recapture of 2M.

    6M salary - 4M cap hit recognized = 2M recapture
     
  24. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    I think we have some confusion about the difference between cap recapture and the 35-plus contract that Datsyuk was an example of.

    As far as I know, cap recapture is still a thing, and you hit the nail on the head.
     
  25. SirloinUB

    SirloinUB Registered User

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    Yea, very good point. I was thinking his buyout length was the same as his contract but it’s actually twice the length.

    Better to let his contract play out for now.
     

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