2019 NFL Draft: Efficient Day 1 trades; 3 QB situations to watch
It's draft week! Around the NFL, prospect evaluations are complete, draft boards set. And after a month-plus of wheeling and dealing in free agency, each team's needs and position priorities can be more easily weighed against the draft order. Of course, it won't take long on draft night for a few trades to blow up everyone's best-laid mock drafts.
Yes, trades are a major component of the madness that is draft weekend. And when teams are conjuring up deals, many reference a chart created back in the 1990s by Jimmy Johnson which
quantifies the value of each draft slot. Now, obviously, there are market dynamics that influence pick trades (like actually finding a trade partner and agreeing on terms), but that chart provides great context when it comes to understanding more about how a trade is initially valued. Some things, like the exact value of a pick in a future year, can never be fully taken into account because the draft order changes every year.
3) The Bills go after my highest-rated prospect
Buffalo Bills receive:
-- 2019 first-round pick (No. 2 overall)
-- 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 176)
San Francisco 49ers receive:
-- 2019 first-round pick (No. 9)
-- 2019 fifth-round pick (No. 147)
-- 2019 sixth-round pick (No. 181)
-- 2020 first-round pick (valued at approximately pick No. 12)
Why it works for the Bills: With most mock drafts connecting
Kyler Murray to the
Cardinals at the first overall pick, and the
Raiders sitting at No. 4 with several key needs (
and the capital to move all over the draft board), the strategy for the
49ers at No. 2 and
Jets at No. 3 is very interesting. Since trading with the
Jets would be an in-division move, the
Bills are more likely to work with the Niners on a deal. Should my model's highest-rated player,
Quinnen Williams, be available at No. 2, the
Bills could craft a trade for the Alabama defensive tackle and fill a huge team need; though, the trade would require giving up their first-round pick in 2020. I told you that my model is most focused on winning
this season, but that doesn't mean it doesn't consider future seasons at all. Simply put, the opportunity to draft Williams is worth the future costs, given the premium at his position and the
Bills' current roster.
Why it works for the 49ers: In this scenario, the Niners limit their odds of acquiring one of the premium pass rushers in the 2019 draft, but at ninth overall, they still have the ability to address their pass defense. With quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo returning from injury and the offseason defensive additions of
Dee Ford and
Kwon Alexander, the
49ers created options for this season and added value for 2020. Should they have a top-10 valuation on a corner (
Deandre Baker is a CB my model likes for them), they could pull the trigger at No. 9. However, depending on the quarterback market (for example, do the
Giants take a QB at No. 6?), San Francisco could spin this pick into even more draft capital, as the team would now sit one slot ahead of the
Broncos, who could be in play for a young signal-caller.