Week 6 DVOA Ratings | Football Outsiders
We have to talk about the insane split right now between the Buffalo Bills offense and the Buffalo Bills defense.
The Buffalo Bills defense right now is third in DVOA, narrowly behind Baltimore. The Bills are even better against the pass, second behind Chicago. The offense, on the other hand, is the worst in the league. But this is not a run of the mill worst of the league. We've had plenty of teams before that were run-of-the-mill bad on offense and very good on defense. The Bills are in another galaxy compared to the rest of the offense-fortified NFL of 2018. Right now, the average team is gaining 5.7 yards per play. Arizona is 31st at 4.4 yards per play. Buffalo is way down at 3.7 yards per play. It's even worse if we look at net yards per pass attempt. The NFL average is 6.6, and Arizona is 31st at 5.1. Buffalo is way down with 3.8 net yards per pass attempt. The Bills lead the league with nine interceptions and are dead last with only three passing touchdowns. (Somehow they are not in last place in total offensive touchdowns; Buffalo has seven and Tennessee has only six.)
Put it all together and normalize for the overall offensive environment of the 2018 season, and Buffalo now has the second-worst offense we've ever tracked through six games.
Now, we could compare Buffalo to other teams that have had a high ranking in offensive DVOA and a really low ranking in defensive DVOA. For example, last year's Arizona Cardinals were 30th on offense and fourth on defense. However, what really matters here is the rating, not the ranking. The Bills are so,
so far behind everyone else in offensive DVOA that it's not enough just to say that they rank dead last.
So I've put together this historical table of similar teams through six games. These are teams that had a bottom-five offensive DVOA but a strong defensive DVOA, with the biggest gap between the two, looking at the actual rating rather than just the ranking. You'll notice that the only team with a bigger gap was the team that's ahead of Buffalo (or should I say behind?) for worst offense through six games: the
2004 Miami Dolphins. That team had just four offensive touchdowns through six games. But they also only allowed seven offensive touchdowns through six games. The 2004 Dolphins had four different turnovers returned for touchdowns just in their first six games of the season! So the 2004 Dolphins were like this year's Bills only even more extreme. They were No. 1 in defense through six games as well as dead last in offense.
Is there hope for Buffalo? If Josh Allen is injured and they have to play Nathan Peterman, it would seem not. But maybe veteran Derek Anderson can rescue the Bills from historically awful offensive efficiency. The 2004 Miami Dolphins, at least, didn't suffer with an offense this bad for the whole year. They beat the St. Louis Rams 31-14 in their very next game. Eventually, as you can see in the table, their offense regressed towards the mean a bit. Unfortunately, so did their defense. Most of the teams on this table were bad on offense all year long, even if things got a little better than they were in the first six weeks. The 2015 Broncos are really the exception.