So what % of QBs not taken in the top 5 are starters? Let's also factor out QBs that had no business being taken at the top of the draft but were because desperate teams reach for QBs. Would you rather draft and have your pick of any QB or would you rather have the top 4 already drafted and you can choose from the rest?
The false narrative is that any single pick after the top of the draft is more likely to return a starter than any single pick in the top 5. If you make 243 picks versus 10 picks over 15 years more successes will come from the 243.
No. NO. NO! You absolutely
cannot factor out QBs taken towards the top of the draft who fizzled out because a desparate team reached for a QB, because that is the risk you take enacting a trade-up strategy. I'm not saying it's always a bad strategy to trade up; I'm saying you can't ignore the bust risk when calculating the odds.
Right, it's about increasing your odds of drafting a higher rated prospect who in turn has a higher chance of achieving his upside. There will always be homeruns and busts, but you have to play the odds for a better chance of overall success. Overanalyzing individual picks becomes a distraction.
Bottom line is the Bills should be drafting in the top 10, with extra picks to move up a few spots if need be, in a draft that should have 3-4 quality QB prospects in their range.
Agreed.
Redskins traded up from 6 to 2 using 3 1sts and a 2nd. Beane currently has 3 1sts, 3 2nds, and 3 3rds in the next two drafts as ammunition. I think the Bills can be as low as 10 and still get into the top 3 for a QB.
*The price will change depending on how the QB class shaped up.
The Bills aren't doing it right if they don't trade McCoy and/or Taylor. I'd personally trade McCoy for three reasons: the pick, to tank, and to ensure he doesn't turn into a disgruntled employee, as any elite player in a tank might. I'd probably keep Taylor, but would need to see what was available.
Might as well throw in every NFL starter the Bills have on a rookie contract. And if that isn't enough, every non-starter on a rookie contract and also any starter the Bills trade partner wants who can still fit under their trade partner's cap, whether re-structured or not.
As my top reply said, there is non-zero downside risk. And I personally still struggle with the very high likelihood of a roster bereft of non-QB talent and little-to-no ability to adequately address via the draft for several years. You can only get so much talent from UDFAs, offseason UFAs, and castoffs from other teams.
legit question to the board:
if a top-3 2018 draft QB is selected, and it takes all picks in 1st 3 rounds of '18 and '19, and possibly other legit NFL starter talent on the current roster, to select that QB, how long before Bills have adequate talent at the remaining positions to complement that QB? 2023? 2025? I am not arguing against the strategy, I am asking the question to those who follow roster construction, other example teams, etc., And please don't give me the Patriots model of prepetual plug and play effective replacements as an example.