Confirmed Trade: [BUF/CHI] Alex Nylander for Henri Jokiharju

[Mick Jagr]

Yeah but... A.Nylander ceiling is probably at AHL.

The guy has 6 pts in 19 games. He's 21 years old. If you think his ceiling is the AHL then you need to work on your talent evaluation skills.

 

[Dirty Dog]

It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what the Hawks thought. They probably had him 5th on their depth chart, which is why they traded him.

Or they valued him highly but he was the cost of Nylander, who they also valued highly? Just because they traded him doesn’t mean he was 5th on their depth chart.

 

[theVladiator]

On the topic of "Joker only works with Keith". I watched quite a few Chicago games at the start of the season because I was curious how Joker would do. Yes, he was paired with Keith, but Keith wasn't holding Joker's diaper. They looked pretty equal. In fact, Joker did more defensive puck recoveries and breakouts. Could be because the teams were testing his side more in the beginning. Also, I though it was quite funny because Chicago PP absolutely sucked during that stretch, but a few times that Joker got the last 10-20 seconds, things suddenly clicked.

Of course, just because for a month Joker looked pretty much equal to Keith(who is close to being #1D), doesn't mean that he has proven himself at that level. But it does show that his upside is at the very least that, since he managed to play at that level right off the bat, albeit for a short time.

 

[Bedards Dad]

The guy has 6 pts in 19 games. He's 21 years old. If you think his ceiling is the AHL then you need to work on your talent evaluation skills.

AHL is ridculous. He is likely a good 3rd liner on a good team. Maybe a 2nd liner on a bad team.

 

[Hawkaholic]

It actually isn't if you know anything about Chicago's D prospect pool.
Boqvist and Vlasic blow Jokiharju's upside away, Beaudin is a bit better, you could say the same about Mitchell, and Krys is a similar prospect to Jokiharju. The only difference is that Jokiharju is NHL ready. The others aren't quite there yet. You're overrating being NHL ready.

Vlasic does not blow Jokers upside away, and Joker has much more upside than Krys does.

 

[BB88]

It actually isn't if you know anything about Chicago's D prospect pool.
Boqvist and Vlasic blow Jokiharju's upside away, Beaudin is a bit better, you could say the same about Mitchell, and Krys is a similar prospect to Jokiharju. The only difference is that Jokiharju is NHL ready. The others aren't quite there yet. You're overrating being NHL ready.

I didn't know they have a generational prospect pool.

 

[Dr Quincy]

They only guys that I think are definitely better are Boqvist and Vlasic. I don't necessarily think that Jokiharju doesn't have room to grow, I was arguing that point because that is what the Hawks think(see link in podcast)
Krys is the only guy on that list that you could make me a convincing argument that he is a worse prospect than Jokiharju. I think you could argue he's better.

Why don't you like Vlasic? I absolutely love him. Hard to find that size/skating/shot combo. He's a huge boom/bust pick, I admit. But if he hits, the sky's the limit. Like I said earlier, the Hawks care more about ceiling than most teams. They'll take the guy with the higher ceiling 10x out of 10. I am huge on ceiling with drafting. Huge. I believe the safe pick is the wrong pick the vast majority of the time. I'm willing to be wrong a few times to hit big a few more.

I don't think Vlasic has near the puck skills to be an offensive contributor in the NHL. His offensive numbers at the USNDP are similar to those of guys like Ty Emberson, James Greenway and Ryan Lindgren. His mobility and skating is good... for his size. But you said something about "dynamic" and that's not his game at all.

I see him as a VERY similar prospect to Gabriel Carlsson- who I really liked as a prospect and still have some hope for: Big, mobile for his size... but it's rear for those kind of guys to "develop" offense later. If it's in there... you' see it. That doesn't mean he won't be an NHLer or even a top 4 guy. But no way I'd say his upside is bigger than Jokiharju's.

In some ways Krys is similar... similar numbers at USNDP. But he's a better skater and smart and I just love his attitude and compete. I think he'll be a fan favorite, and possibly wear an "A" at some point. But again, not the offensive upside of Joki. Compare their WJC careers.. Yes it's a short tournament, but one put up .7 ppg there and the other got nothing. Would want Chad on my team any time any day, but his upside is limited.

I think you underestimate the signficant difference between putting up .44 ppg in US JRs as a 17/18 year old and putting up .55ppg in the AHL as an 18/19 year old.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I don't think Vlasic has near the puck skills to be an offensive contributor in the NHL. His offensive numbers at the USNDP are similar to those of guys like Ty Emberson, James Greenway and Ryan Lindgren. His mobility and skating is good... for his size. But you said something about "dynamic" and that's not his game at all.

I see him as a VERY similar prospect to Gabriel Carlsson- who I really liked as a prospect and still have some hope for: Big, mobile for his size... but it's rear for those kind of guys to "develop" offense later. If it's in there... you' see it. That doesn't mean he won't be an NHLer or even a top 4 guy. But no way I'd say his upside is bigger than Jokiharju's.

In some ways Krys is similar... similar numbers at USNDP. But he's a better skater and smart and I just love his attitude and compete. I think he'll be a fan favorite, and possibly wear an "A" at some point. But again, not the offensive upside of Joki. Compare their WJC careers.. Yes it's a short tournament, but one put up .7 ppg there and the other got nothing. Would want Chad on my team any time any day, but his upside is limited.

I think you underestimate the signficant difference between putting up .44 ppg in US JRs as a 17/18 year old and putting up .55ppg in the AHL as an 18/19 year old.

I was never impressed with Jokiharju offensively. I'm pretty much tired of this conversation and we've beat this horse to death. Let us all just let it die. I'm done in this thread. My opinion is my opinion. I couldn't care less about Jokiharju at this point.

 

[Pez68]

This is a wait and see trade. It cannot be fully judged for a couple of seasons. It could turn out to be a bad trade for the Hawks. It could turn out to be a good trade for both teams. It could turn out to be a bad trade for Buffalo.

I think Jokiharju is absolutely an NHL defenseman. The question is, where does he fit? What is his ceiling? If the Hawks don't think he will turn out to be a top pairing guy, they really don't have room for him. They have a ton of defensemen with the recent trades.

Keith/Gustafsson
Maata/Murphy
de Haan/Seabrook

LD in the system: Dahlstrom, Beaudin, Krys, Vlasic
RD in the system: Boqvist, Mitchell

Gus is 27. De Haan is 28. Maata is 24. Murphy is 26... These guys are all basically in their prime. Lots of middle-pairing types, as well.

Keith probably has a couple good years left. Seabrook should be press box fodder this season, and a prime candidate for a compliance buyout. Until they can get rid of him, though, he's taking up one of those spots on the right.

Assuming Boqvist and/or Mitchell can make the jump in the next season or two, where does Joki fit? There is also the fact that the Hawks would have had to expose him in the expansion draft, whereas Boqvist and Mitchell will be exempt.

Jokiharju was the odd man out. I don't have much of an issue with trading him, but the return is a big question mark right now. It will be a question mark for the next season or two, until we see what Jokiharju and Nylander's ceilings are.

 

[Pens x]

Small step in redeeming himself for the ROR trade

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

You got to love the souring of a player once he is traded off the team. Opinions change simply due to a transaction a GM does. When Joki was on the Hawks he is worth William Nylander. Now that he is moved magically he has a low ceiling now and Chicago has several D prospects much better.



The big difference is that a week ago before the trade Joki was highly valued by his teams fans and he was listed in the trade board for high end assets. On the other end, literally every single Sabre fan had little to no expectations of Nylander becoming a top 6 forward. Go through the Roster Speculation thread on the Sabres board. Out of the hundreds of potential lineups for this upcoming season virtually zero had Nylander penciled in to our lineup. I was one of the more bullish Sabre fans on Nylanders potental and I would have been ecstatic if Nylander became a 20-20 guy at his peak.

Both teams fans seem to be happy now with the trade. Other teams fans were offering B prospects and/or 2nd round picks for Nylander this past year so getting Joki for him is fantastic.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

You got to love the souring of a player once he is traded off the team. Opinions change simply due to a transaction a GM does. When Joki was on the Hawks he is worth William Nylander. Now that he is moved magically he has a low ceiling now and Chicago has several D prospects much better.



The big difference is that a week ago before the trade Joki was highly valued by his teams fans and he was listed in the trade board for high end assets. On the other end, literally every single Sabre fan had little to no expectations of Nylander becoming a top 6 forward. Go through the Roster Speculation thread on the Sabres board. Out of the hundreds of potential lineups for this upcoming season virtually zero had Nylander penciled in to our lineup. I was one of the more bullish Sabre fans on Nylanders potental and I would have been ecstatic if Nylander became a 20-20 guy at his peak.

Both teams fans seem to be happy now with the trade. Other teams fans were offering B prospects and/or 2nd round picks for Nylander this past year so getting Joki for him is fantastic.

This is literally the last thing I'm saying on the subject: Jokiharju was viewed more highly than he should have been due to his proximity to the NHL. They have 1 D prospect that is definitely better, and 3 that are arguable. The fact that there was a logjam doesn't diminish his value, and despite that I thought the value they got for him was poor. That being said, he had become overrated. As they say, the value of anything is only what you can get in return.

 

[Space umpire]

name some GM's that could take over any team that needed a total rebuild within about 3-5 years and he would make them a cup contender....

Well, part of the reason they needed the TOTAL rebuild was a certain assistant GM failed to send QO's out on time leading to several guys getting huge raises to keep them from becoming UFA's.
That sir, was the beginning of the end.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Small step in redeeming himself for the ROR trade

since when are trades won or lost before actual games are played...

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Hossa and his agent chose the Blackhawks based on their "Cup predictor" algorithm or whatever it was. All Bowman did was negotiate the numbers.

you missed the point...Tallon wanted to extend Havlat long term and was told no, Bowmans pushed for Hossa and the rest is history.

 

[clydesdale line]

Vlasic does not blow Jokers upside away, and Joker has much more upside than Krys does.

This. I like Vlasic but he does not have Jokiharju's offensive upside at all (not that I believe Jokiharju will be an offensive dynamo or anything but I expect Vlasic to be more of a shutdown guy). Ima miss Jokiharju (big fan of his) but I'm also a big fan of Nylander as well. Personally, it's a torn but win-win deal for me. I hope he does very well in Buffalo.. I expect him to.

 

[Pens x]

since when are trades won or lost before actual games are played...

The ROR deal was poor the minute it was made. At least this trade makes sense.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

I'm a big Joker backer.

I think watching him an Dahlin together would be magical.

He will be Rafalski to Dahlins Lidstrom. As a Hawks fan, I like the trade, as a hockey fan, who really doesn't want to see the Joker/Dahlins or Makar/Byram pairings in the next few years?

Again, Nylander gives the Hawks amazing depth and getting a shot at playing with the Kanes and Toews of the league could light a fire inside him.

Let's see what this trade brings both teams before saying who won it.

 

[Njfj]

It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what the Hawks thought. They probably had him 5th on their depth chart, which is why they traded him.

When it comes to prospects, I value ceiling over all else. It is all about the ceiling. I feel that way in baseball and football as well. I believe the safe pick is the wrong pick 90% of the time.

I think something you are failing to mention that might save you the need to argue so much with people disputing the internal depth chart is this: it doesn’t matter if Beaudin or Vlasic are better, or Krys for that matter. Joki plays the right side and is arguably the third best option the Hawks have internally at that position not currently playing in the league (Boqvist, Mitchell). Factor in Murphy, or that we might be stuck with Seabs until the end of his contract, or that Gus plays his off hand and you see the evidence of his expendability.

Now, arguing why anyone should like the return is another subject...

 

[Space umpire]

I don't think Vlasic has near the puck skills to be an offensive contributor in the NHL. His offensive numbers at the USNDP are similar to those of guys like Ty Emberson, James Greenway and Ryan Lindgren. His mobility and skating is good... for his size. But you said something about "dynamic" and that's not his game at all.

I see him as a VERY similar prospect to Gabriel Carlsson- who I really liked as a prospect and still have some hope for: Big, mobile for his size... but it's rear for those kind of guys to "develop" offense later. If it's in there... you' see it. That doesn't mean he won't be an NHLer or even a top 4 guy. But no way I'd say his upside is bigger than Jokiharju's.

In some ways Krys is similar... similar numbers at USNDP. But he's a better skater and smart and I just love his attitude and compete. I think he'll be a fan favorite, and possibly wear an "A" at some point. But again, not the offensive upside of Joki. Compare their WJC careers.. Yes it's a short tournament, but one put up .7 ppg there and the other got nothing. Would want Chad on my team any time any day, but his upside is limited.

I think you underestimate the signficant difference between putting up .44 ppg in US JRs as a 17/18 year old and putting up .55ppg in the AHL as an 18/19 year old.

You reference upside and ONLY discuss offensive numbers. Personally I see Boqvist and Beaudin as 1st and 2nd pairing offensive catalysts. Mitchell pairs with Boqvist. He is also good with the puck. It has the potential to be a great top pairing. Beaudin and ... Krys? Vlasic? Maatta? de Haan is only 28.
The defense as a group is as deep as it was in the 1st decade of this century when Chicago had Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Byfuglien, Wisniewski and Barker all come up within a few years. I can remember HF people balking at the claims that 4 or 5 of those "prospects" would all be decent NHLers. Funny thing is that while Barker was a miss, Wisniewski might have been the best of the group. injuries wore him down and hampered both his skill and his skating.

 

[Space umpire]

you missed the point...Tallon wanted to extend Havlat long term and was told no, Bowmans pushed for Hossa and the rest is history.

That's about as revisionist as one can get. Tallon wanted Havlat however Havlat took himself out of the running when he priced himself too high.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

That's about as revisionist as one can get. Tallon wanted Havlat however Havlat took himself out of the running when he priced himself too high.

Tallon got fired for that and the QO Fax snafu in the summer of 2009. The Hawks could have kept either Byfuglien, Ladd or Versteeg had Tallon not been late on the QOs. They ended up having to sign all 3 to 3 year extensions worth 3.25M at a time where the ceiling was around 54M, in order to avoid losing them altogether. There was a chance that all 3 were going to be declared UFAs. The 2010 team almost never happened.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

I didn't know they have a generational prospect pool.

Yeah who would have known CHI had a D prospect pool of all 1Ds... Congrats Hawks.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Yeah who would have known CHI had a D prospect pool of all 1Ds... Congrats Hawks.

They don't, but they have Boqvist who is likely to be a #1 and 3 guys with a good chance of being a #2. They are likely to have an awesome top pairing and a solid #3

 

[Castle8130]

You got to love the souring of a player once he is traded off the team. Opinions change simply due to a transaction a GM does. When Joki was on the Hawks he is worth William Nylander. Now that he is moved magically he has a low ceiling now and Chicago has several D prospects much better.



The big difference is that a week ago before the trade Joki was highly valued by his teams fans and he was listed in the trade board for high end assets. On the other end, literally every single Sabre fan had little to no expectations of Nylander becoming a top 6 forward. Go through the Roster Speculation thread on the Sabres board. Out of the hundreds of potential lineups for this upcoming season virtually zero had Nylander penciled in to our lineup. I was one of the more bullish Sabre fans on Nylanders potental and I would have been ecstatic if Nylander became a 20-20 guy at his peak.

Both teams fans seem to be happy now with the trade. Other teams fans were offering B prospects and/or 2nd round picks for Nylander this past year so getting Joki for him is fantastic.

Chicago has had a higher caliber RHD in Boqvist, but he was still one of the better d prospects. Bowman didn't see him sticking in our line up this year, or eventually turning into a top pairing dman so he exchanged him for a player that can play a top 9 role.

Point is, I don't think Joker was as highly touted as you think.