Post-Game Talk: Buds shine in the sunshine state!

[willmma]

This post is the honest to God truth.

I keep telling every single person in my social circle that most of the Leafs issues have been poor goal-tending.

All of the metrics defensively have been just fine.

But the media does absolutely no research into making their arguments, and just like to fear monger because it's good for numbers.

Leafs fans also need to open up their eyes. Yes the Leafs give up high end chances, but if you're watching the game, you're seeing the other team do that as well, this is the NHL people...

This is true, but it makes me more, not less, worried.

Defensive systems can be tweaked to improve results. I am not sure what we can do about bad goal-tending.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm still buzzing from that huge win. That game could have gone either way and winning probably improved our playoff chances by 20-25%, so enormous!

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'm still buzzing from that huge win. That game could have gone either way and winning probably improved our playoff chances by 20-25%, so enormous!

according to Moneypuck, we went from around 60% to 83.5% with that win

 

[Gary Nylund]

according to Moneypuck, we went from around 60% to 83.5% with that win

Huh OK, I'm pretty sure that earlier in the season I said moneypuck is dumb but the odds rising by 23.5% is in line with my thoughts so that's cool I guess. I wonder if their formula considers injuries, I'm guessing it doesn't.

Without thinking about it a ton, I told my wife last night that I'd say our chances went from about 45% to about 68% after the win. Having digested it a bit I still think that's pretty accurate, I'd be willing to bet a fair bit that it's more accurate then moneypuck's numbers. And all the injuries we have could easily explain the difference between moneypuck's numbers and mine.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Huh OK, I'm pretty sure that earlier in the season I said moneypuck is dumb but the odds rising by 23.5% is in line with my thoughts so that's cool I guess. I wonder if their formula considers injuries, I'm guessing it doesn't.

Without thinking about it a ton, I told my wife last night that I'd say our chances went from about 45% to about 68% after the win. Having digested it a bit I still think that's pretty accurate, I'd be willing to bet a fair bit that it's more accurate then moneypuck's numbers. And all the injuries we have could easily explain the difference between moneypuck's numbers and mine.

it doesn't look like moneypuck's model accounts for injuries in their description. It looks like most of the other models have us at around 75 % to make the playoffs, I doubt they include injuries either. Moneypuck's model seems to have bigger swings than the rest - more reactive to changes and more apt to deviate from the middle of the bellcurve in terms of likely outcomes.

big win though, puts a little space between us and Florida, and puts us back in the second wildcard race as a safety net

 

[56 Years No Cup]

This is why the NHL is such a joke at times.

The Leafs absolutely dominate the 2nd period, Florida had nothing, yet the team had zero PPs, you're telling me Florida played a "clean" period by chasing the game the entire period? Bull****

Also, I was certain that Andersen would let in a stinker after we were dominating.

I was thinking the same thing. Just waiting for the dagger. Thankfully it never came.

 

[Once]

The game that Matthews played last night is exactly the type of game you want from your best player. Work the boards, use your body for positioning, set-up the first goal, tie the game right before intermission, maintain offensive zone pressure, play the 200 ft game. He did it all last night. Rocket or not Matthews has hit another gear this season.

 

[mix1home]

Never would have expected 4 points out of this trip. Now deal with Vancouver on Saturday while the Panthers lick their wounds. Will they permanently have a game in hand on the Leafs?

No. They will play their last game when we would be in playoffs already.

 

[sxvnert]

If Kap can play that speed/grit game then its time to put him with Tavares & Nylander.

Hyman Matthews Marner
Nylander Tavares Kapanen
Engvall Kerfoot Spezza
Clifford Goat Malgin

 

[I am Canadian]

Maybe this Muzzin injury will get Matthews and co to buy into playing better defense.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Maybe this Muzzin injury will get Matthews and co to buy into playing better defense.

Matthews has had a very good defensive season in general

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Still surprised we won And kinda dominated.

 

[kb]

Still surprised we won And kinda dominated.

Nothing surprises me anymore. Good or bad. lol

 

[Doublerum1975]

We are winning despite Anderson i can't remember last time he stole a game i don't think he's the answer to get us in the playoffs let alone a first round win really hope he proves me wrong

 

[willmma]

Nothing surprises me anymore. Good or bad. lol

There's no good or bad. It's just 'maybe'

Dubie taught me that

 

[Fogelhund]

Going to need a much bigger sample size for me to actually believe they’ve become mentally tough in like, a week

They played with a compete level, and were mentally tougher for two games. I'd agree with you that we need a greater sample size to determine if the team has permanently changed. How they played for two games, that's what we need all the time particularly in the playoffs.

 

[Cynical]

How many times has Dermott now been drilled into the boards from behind without drawing a penalty? I'm very confused as to what is happening with the refs and why Leafs players are allowed to be targeted like this.

 

[crump]

Love Spezza even more...

"The move no one saw was Jason Spezza talking to Andersen between periods. Andersen hadn’t been very good, allowing three goals on the first six shots. The team tied the game despite him. Spezza had a word with the goalie."

“I was just really focused on trying to calm down,” said Andersen. “Spezza was great with me in the first intermission, trying to settle me down a little bit and help get the belief back. Obviously it was a tie game so we were able to start over.”
What did Spezza say? “He just calmed me down a little bit.”

Embarrassing, overpaid, forget the playoffs, fire the GM — emotions run high in this week’s Maple Leafs Mailbag

 

[Funk21]

How many times has Dermott now been drilled into the boards from behind without drawing a penalty? I'm very confused as to what is happening with the refs and why Leafs players are allowed to be targeted like this.

Agreed it’s not good, he needs to stop putting himself in a situation to get hurt but players need to lay a beating down on somebody when they take runs at him. Plus not Kap, we can’t afford him breaking his hand on some numskull helmet or cutting it on a visor.

Clifford or Marincin. Either that or call up Gravel as he can’t be much worse than Marincin.

 

[Dog]

Old time hockey fighting and wanting to win..

 

[Gabriel426]

Love Spezza even more...

"The move no one saw was Jason Spezza talking to Andersen between periods. Andersen hadn’t been very good, allowing three goals on the first six shots. The team tied the game despite him. Spezza had a word with the goalie."

“I was just really focused on trying to calm down,” said Andersen. “Spezza was great with me in the first intermission, trying to settle me down a little bit and help get the belief back. Obviously it was a tie game so we were able to start over.”
What did Spezza say? “He just calmed me down a little bit.”

Embarrassing, overpaid, forget the playoffs, fire the GM — emotions run high in this week’s Maple Leafs Mailbag

That’s the vet presence I have been talking about.

 

[Gabriel426]

Just watched the game again as part of Mail it in Friday. I find it much better to analyze players when you know the score, bc you won’t be emotional.
JT actually had a good game, he was winning battles and hitting.
Ofcourse Matthews, Willie, Kap and Hyman were beasts last night.
Rosen, at least the games I watched him, this game and last year, is someone who keep the game simple, something the Leafs D lacks.
Dermott needs to sell these hits, all he needs to do is stay down for a few more seconds and the refs and the league will take notice. The last thing they want is another Kariya’s concussion story and have a player come out and said, he doesn’t remember the game he just played.
Clifford had probably his best game, it could he is finally comfortable with the team.

 

[kb]

Just watched the game again as part of Mail it in Friday. I find it much better to analyze players when you know the score, bc you won’t be emotional.
JT actually had a good game, he was winning battles and hitting.
Ofcourse Matthews, Willie, Kap and Hyman were beasts last night.
Rosen, at least the games I watched him, this game and last year, is someone who keep the game simple, something the Leafs D lacks.
Dermott needs to sell these hits, all he needs to do is stay down for a few more seconds and the refs and the league will take notice. The last thing they want is another Kariya’s concussion story and have a player come out and said, he doesn’t remember the game he just played.
Clifford had probably his best game, it could he is finally comfortable with the team.

At least you didn't mail in your post! Agreed on everything.

 

[Gabriel426]

At least you didn't mail in your post! Agreed on everything.

Leafs is my live, you don’t take a minute off, lol.

 

[Zybalto]

Matthews has had a very good defensive season in general

In the 7 minutes head to head against Barkov last night:

CF%: 86.38
xGF% 95.58

Pretty sure Quenneville was trying his best to keep Barkov away from Matthews as he was just getting dominated.

Fewest goals against/60 REL this year by a center (900 minutes+)

1. Matthews
2. Kopitar
3. Larkin