Speculation: Brian Burke: Cap might be $40 million next season

WolfBlitzer

Registered User
May 6, 2020
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I realize Burke's comments were a "HOT TAKE" to gain attention, but I really question why he'd go on record with such an impossibly low number that could never happen.

It reaks of a way to get negative attention towards the Leafs from fans and haters.

There is absolutely 0 chance the cap will be even 70 million, let alone 40.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
11,529
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I realize Burke's comments were a "HOT TAKE" to gain attention, but I really question why he'd go on record with such an impossibly low number that could never happen.

It reaks of a way to get negative attention towards the Leafs from fans and haters.

There is absolutely 0 chance the cap will be even 70 million, let alone 40.

With the salary cap being directly related to league revenue, I don't think Burke is that far off in his estimate.
 

WolfBlitzer

Registered User
May 6, 2020
131
97
didn't the nhl say the cap wasn't going to drop and if it was to rise, it would rise at most by 1 million?
It's not going to drop. It's all but confirmed. 40 million was just a stupid hot take by Burke. EVERY single NHL team would be screwed, including the team with the most cap currently and NHL players would be out of jobs. It would be a disaster.
Burke is an idiot.
 

JT AM da real deal

Registered User
Oct 4, 2018
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7,319
Do you want to place bets? There is absolutely no chance it is anywhere close to 40 million.
CAP very likely to be 81.5M with nhl negotiating position of 35% escrow so reality is you guys are almost saying da same thing. Players will get escrow down somewhat- my guess 30%. Bottom line it is what you get gross less escrow less taxes. The have to keep CAP because eventually it will come back in 2-3 years.
 
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Joey Hoser

Registered User
Jan 8, 2008
14,232
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Guelph
With the salary cap being directly related to league revenue, I don't think Burke is that far off in his estimate.

You can't have your cap go from 80 to 40 and then back to 80+ again year to year. That clearly, can't possibly, work. How would anyone field a team in that middle year? You can't roll back salaries that far because everyone knows revenue will return to (mostly)normal in a year.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
11,529
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CAP very likely to be 81.5M with nhl negotiating position of 35% escrow so reality is you guys are almost saying da same thing. Players will get escrow down somewhat- my guess 30%. Bottom line it is what you get gross less escrow less taxes. The have to keep CAP because eventually it will come back in 2-3 years.

Right, so the defacto cap next season will likely be around 55-60 million with escrow taken into account. I understand the official cap will remain comparable to the status quo.

This will have to be the case until fans can start attending games again.
 

Joey Hoser

Registered User
Jan 8, 2008
14,232
4,143
Guelph
Right, so the defacto cap next season will likely be around 55-60 million with escrow taken into account. I understand the official cap will remain comparable to the status quo.

This will have to be the case until fans can start attending games again.

But if they did that, they would have to roll salaries back as well to compensate. If they just reduced the cap, they wouldn't be able to start the season because teams couldn't get under the cap, because there's nowhere to dump any salary.

If you had buyouts, then there would be nowhere for the bought-out players to sign.

They're going to have to negotiate something. They can't simply reduce the cap. It breaks the league.
 

JT AM da real deal

Registered User
Oct 4, 2018
12,056
7,319
Right, so the defacto cap next season will likely be around 55-60 million with escrow taken into account. I understand the official cap will remain comparable to the status quo.

This will have to be the case until fans can start attending games again.
Yep it was Burkie blowing up to get clicks ... da old saying if people r talkin about u then its all good ... i'm sure if someone deep dived it he would detail things but why bother when u get da attention like he did
 
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kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,200
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Yep it was Burkie blowing up to get clicks ... da old saying if people r talkin about u then its all good ... i'm sure if someone deep dived it he would detail things but why bother when u get da attention like he did
Burke many not be far off with salary expenditures, but the cap won't go down. Escrow be da equalizer. :)
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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St. Paul, MN
I realize Burke's comments were a "HOT TAKE" to gain attention, but I really question why he'd go on record with such an impossibly low number that could never happen.

It reaks of a way to get negative attention towards the Leafs from fans and haters.

There is absolutely 0 chance the cap will be even 70 million, let alone 40.

Beacuse it gets airtime and tv talking heads often face zero professional consequences no matter how often they are proven to be wrong or dumb
 

Turin

Registered User
Feb 27, 2018
21,871
25,274
If it's not next year, it will be the year after.

Are you going to sit in a crowded arena next year? Not only that, companies are hurting. All those corporate sales are going to get slashed HARD.

Yes. Anybody under 70 who has looked at the data ought to say yes.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
11,529
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T.O.
But if they did that, they would have to roll salaries back as well to compensate. If they just reduced the cap, they wouldn't be able to start the season because teams couldn't get under the cap, because there's nowhere to dump any salary.

If you had buyouts, then there would be nowhere for the bought-out players to sign.

They're going to have to negotiate something. They can't simply reduce the cap. It breaks the league.

Agreed. The players are going to have to be willing to make concessions for the next couple of years if they want to keep playing.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,900
Toronto
They probably will come to a compromise of scaling back the salaries of players to the same extent the cap goes down. Otherwise, a bunch of teams are just going to declare bankruptcy to avoid their debts. Agents and the PA aren't dumb. They know a compromise of some sort is going to have to be reached.
 
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HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
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I like how we sign players for stupid money and then contracts are going to crash. Nice timing. Except i bridged Nylander and Marner.
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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Agreed. The players are going to have to be willing to make concessions for the next couple of years if they want to keep playing.

Well the NHL and the NHLPA are in a 50/50 equal partnership which means they share profits and losses and the salary Cap is based on hockey related revenue.

The owners already have a mechanism in the CBA called Escrow whereby they withhold a portion of all players salaries at a % rate throughout the season, and then to balance this equal partnership out post season are allowed to draw from this players escrow slush fund.

If at the beginning of the season the Escrow rate % was say set at 25% (to allow for this new world economy) that is the equivalent of essentially rolling back player salaries by that rate and players would only earn 75% of their actual salaries of their contracts.

So the NHL wouldn't really have to do anything new, just increase the escrow % rate to accommodate a lower salary cap and lower expected hockey related revenue.
 
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Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
77,850
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I realize Burke's comments were a "HOT TAKE" to gain attention, but I really question why he'd go on record with such an impossibly low number that could never happen.

It reaks of a way to get negative attention towards the Leafs from fans and haters.

There is absolutely 0 chance the cap will be even 70 million, let alone 40.

There’s no “record” these days. Outlandish things are said day to day and they all pile up in one heap with no memory of them or accountability. Burke’s just playing the same game as everyone else.
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,108
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Yes ecause Dubas should have known Covid would start halfway through thuis season!



And why are people still going on about Nylander making 6.9?


He couldn't know i'm just referring to the bad luck.


Actually Nylander exceeded my expectations this year and you make a great point.
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,053
23,154
Right, so the defacto cap next season will likely be around 55-60 million with escrow taken into account. I understand the official cap will remain comparable to the status quo.

This will have to be the case until fans can start attending games again.

I've run the math. If no further games are played, the league revenue drops between 15.6% to 19.9% from last year. The lowest it could go, is $65 million.. You aren't too far off with the escrow taken into account, but Burke is in fantasy land.
 

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