Speculation: Brian Burke Believes Matthews Will Leave Toronto In 5 Years

[hotpaws]

I agree it does. Unfortunately, by your own admission there's been no such impact on the Leafs. That should tell you something

i didn't say there was no impact , you just made that up

i'm saying the reduced cap space has cost us players whether that would have been spent on a proven b/u goalie or frwd or d i have no way of knowing as a fan

 

[nobody]

name the recent comparable's your using to base you your opinion on that AM signed for market value and please factor in term

and your not making any sense with what you're saying Marner deserves to get

Your saying Marner's earned 8-11% on a 5 plus year term which is 6.5 to 8,96 m as well as saying he deserves 8.5m to 10m , no term provided .

Then you go on to say you believe he'll sign for 6,5 to 8.5 (huge spread) for 2.3 yrs

you're all over the place with you numbers of what youbelieve he's worth

I posted the contracts there. All those players have signed their 2nd contracts within the past 3-4 season and have variable contract lengths from 5-8 years. There's no exact formula specially when considering that Matthews' production for his ELC is as elite as McDavid's when you factor in team performance and his absolute ability to put up goals.

As for the Marner point. I quoted my post directly as is and I will stick by it. Marner on a bridge if he takes what other players have taken recently he should get between 6-8 mill for a 2-3 year deal. If he wants a 5-6+ year deal then he can reach into the Gaudreau/Tarasenko territory of 9-10.5% of the cap which comes out to about 8.5 million. He's dreaming if he thinks he's getting 10+. And my point was should he get to that number then you can feel free to rip the Leafs management and Dubas and I would agree with you.

But ripping Dubas and Leafs for Matthews contract is utterly stupid. This guy has progressed well every year and his baseline is 40 goals. You just don't have those type of C in the league. You don't have many players period in the league who have that ability and they're going to get a premium. Matthews got a great deal and so did the Leafs. I am confident should he stay healthy, Auston is a consistent threat for 50 goals/year and 100-110+ points/year for his contract. And you're not getting a player like that for a dime under what he signed for.

Only players who end up signing bargain bin contracts are ones who underachieve during their ELC (late bloomers) and finally put things together once they're past the big payday. Guys like Mitch and Auston are gamers. Like the true elite players in this league (the McDavid, Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Ovi, Kane) they don't take much time to develop to elite form and continue to improve. These players get paid early and often. It's just how it is. We should be f***ing beyond ecstatic to have such talent on the team.

 

[hotpaws]

I made this post a few months ago but here's the breakdown. Read it, digest it and see what the REAL NUMBERS are (not your hypothetical facts in your mind). I'm all for arguing for the sake of arguing but when you have a baseless argument. Take the L and find another point to argue.

Auston Matthews definitely isn't the point scorer that McDavid is but he puts up near PPG during his ELC. Something not matched by players not named (Malkin, Crosby etc. Top echelon players). Not to mention he is an absolute stud goal scorer. He got paid for his work. He literally shat over the same players that are currently being praised for their play and contracts (value) in MacK, Scheifele, Barkov etc.
--------------------

ELC: Current Cap: Contract % of cap when signed

Centers:


Barkov: $5.9 mil/ year : 9.12%
PPG: 0.62
GPG: 0.27

Scheifele: $6.125 mil/ year : 9.55%
PPG: 0.64
GPG: 0.26

Monahan: $6.375 mil/ year : 8.58%
PPG: 0.67
GPG: 0.34

Kuznetsov: $7.8 mil/ year : 10.09%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.2

MacKinnon: $6.3 mil/ year : 9%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.27

Draisaitl $8.5 mil/year : 13.43%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.26

Aho: $8.5 mil/ year : 10.4%
PPG: 0.81
GPG: 0.34

Eichel: $10 mil/ year : 13.13%
PPG: 0.85
GPG: 0.35

Matthews: $11.634 mil/ year : 14.2%
PPG: 0.97
GPG: 0.52

McDavid: $12.5 mil/ year : 15.29%
PPG: 1.22
GPG: 0.42

Wingers:

Huberdeau: $3.25/ year bridge deal: 4.6% bridge
PPG: 0.58
GPG: 0.19

Hoffman: $5.187 mil/ year: 7.1%
PPG: 0.61
GPG: 0.32

Ehlers: $6 mil/ year : 7.9%
PPG: 0.69
GPG: 0.29

Pastrnak: $6.67 mil/ year : 8.8%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.34

Nylander: $6.96 mil/ year: 8.8% (13.44% because he signed late into the season and first year cap hit was $10.2 mil)
PPG: 0.73
GPG: 0.26

Tarasenko: $7.5 mil/ year: 10.5%
PPG: 0.75
GPG: 0.37

Gaudreau: $6.75 mil/ year: 9.3%
PPG: 0.88
GPG: 0.31

Marner: - : -
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.28

Panarin: $6 mil/ year bridge deal: 8% Bridge
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.38

Using Draisaitl, Eichel and McDavid as comparable for Matthews, I can argue that either both Matthews and McDavid are underpaid (McDavid severely) or both Eichel and Draisaitl were severely overpaid for what they had done in their ELC. As of today, you would be hard pressed to find any one complaining about either Eichel or Draisaitls contracts. Same will apply for Matthews in 2 years.

Matthews has the most absurd GPG out of every player listed both W and C. He's outscored his second best GPG guy in McDavid by 0.1 GPG/ season. That amounts to about 8 more goals per 82 game season. That is absurd.

Mitch is at a cross roads and understandably so. He's at the upper echelon of ELC production for wingers. Both Gaudreau and Panarin seemingly took sweetheart deals with a bridge and a 9.3% cap hit for Johnny hockey. Tarasenko looks like he was overpaid when he signed his deal.

Willy's contract from what I can see was fair. He definitely didn't take a sweetheart deal like Johnny Gaudreau did but he is in no way shape or form overpaid for what he did in his ELC.

Lastly, Sebastian Aho's current contract is well below market value for what he has produced so far. He should be getting paid probably $1 mil more in AAV than what the current offer sheet is. I'm not sure with the inner workings of his deal but if I was his agent I would not have signed the deal that Montreal offered. Aho contract is a bargain for what he's done thus far and if he continues to produce and improve like all of these players have for the most part, Aho is going to end up the biggest steal of a contract next to a guy like Johnny Gaudreau.

EDIT: I would include MacK, Huberdeau, Chef, Barkov as steal of a deal contracts but looking at their not so hot ELC production, these guys ended up being late bloomers more than anything else. Teams were fortunate to sign them while their values were lower post ELC.

EDIT X2: Looking at Aho's agent. He's a finish guy with all finish players and most of them are young guys with Aho being the biggest name. Carolina got lucky.

Rantanen has the same agent as Draisaitl, Schneider, Risto, Tarasenko. I would put a good chunk of money down that he's not going to get ripped off by any stretch. All those players have signed above market value contracts with their respective teams. Laine has the same agent. (bold prediction, Laine will get close to/ more than what Marner/Rants will make even though anyone who has watched hockey knows that he is no where near the player that Marner/Rants are).

Brayden Point's agent has Price and Lucic so he's going to get a pretty penny as well.

Mitch's agent Darren Ferris looks like Mitch is his main guy. His other top clients are Taylor hall, Zach Bogosian and Andreas Athanasiou. We all remember Athanasiou threatening the wings to go play in europe with his contract hold out. He eventually ended up caving once he realized he had no leverage in his situation. Lol (If I was a betting man, I would bet that Mitch takes a 2 year $6-7 mil/ year bridge deal and renegs when the cap is higher in two years when the TV deals kick in and he has a couple more PPG and potentially 100+ point seasons under his belt)//////// Ferris is notorious for getting his guys to bridge deals.

Auston and McDavid have the same agencies. The bobby orr group.

Mathews is no where near the player McDavid is and it's not even close regardless of you trying to make the argument that only goal scoring should be evaluated when trying gauge what a player is worth .

and there's a huge difference between a player signing a 5 year term compared to an 8 yr term and teams pay a large premium (rightfully so) to lock up a player coming off their elc for an extra 3 years which you're ignoring

also i'd like you to explain why i didn't read a single poster say a fair market value deal for AM was 11.6m x 5 yrs yet now the board is full of people spinning themselves silly trying to justify that deal , lol

 

[hotpaws]

As for the Marner point. I quoted my post directly as is and I will stick by it. Marner on a bridge if he takes what other players have taken recently he should get between 6-8 mill for a 2-3 year deal. If he wants a 5-6+ year deal then he can reach into the Gaudreau/Tarasenko territory of 9-10.5% of the cap which comes out to about 8.5 million. He's dreaming if he thinks he's getting 10+. And my point was should he get to that number then you can feel free to rip the Leafs management and Dubas and I would agree with you.

-2-3 yrs for 6-8m

-9 to 10.5% for 5 plus year which is 7.3 to 8.5m

your numbers really don't make much sense and the only thing i can think your trying to do is somehow pre justify an extremely high bridge deal since that's what rumored to be what he eventually signs for

 

[18leafsfan18]

We know McDavid “took less” to sign. Matthews squeezed every last penny possible out of his situation. Maybe that happens again in 5 years and boom Matthews makes more than McDavid?

If McDavid "Took Less" to sign, how did Matthews not do the same ?

For example (Completely hypothetical): If McDavid took 2 mil AAV less then his "Value", then Matthews at 11.6 also took a discount (He isn't as good as McDavid, but not worth 2.6 AAV less either).

 

[Nithoniniel]

I can't for the life of me understand why some posters try so damn hard to be so pissed off right when we finally get a good team. There's criticism, and there's searching nook and cranny for any angle that paints things as bad as humanly possible.

 

[Metroid]

I can't for the life of me understand why some posters try so damn hard to be so pissed off right when we finally get a good team. There's criticism, and there's searching nook and cranny for any angle that paints things as bad as humanly possible.

It's easier to be negative.
Also it's a win win for them....
If it is ends up working out, they'll just ignore the fact they were negative Nancy's and claim to have been leaf fans all along...if the opposite happens, they will claim they were right and brag how they know more than everyone and actually be happy shit didn't work out... Which is sad and f***ed up

 

[TomP24684]

If McDavid "Took Less" to sign, how did Matthews not do the same ?

For example (Completely hypothetical): If McDavid took 2 mil AAV less then his "Value", then Matthews at 11.6 also took a discount (He isn't as good as McDavid, but not worth 2.6 AAV less either).

Term. Unless you want to say there’s no value in the 3 additional years McDavid committed.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Term. Unless you want to say there’s no value in the 3 additional years McDavid committed.

Absolutely term matters.

But how much would it have raised the AAV ? 500k , 1.0 mil ? No one knows.

Without knowing how much it would raise AAV you can't argue McDavid took less but Matthews didn't.

 

[ULF_55]

I'm okay if he leaves.

Be nice if this team won something before then, but if they haven't someone will be on deck.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Absolutely term matters.

But how much would it have raised the AAV ? 500k , 1.0 mil ? No one knows.

Without knowing how much it would raise AAV you can't argue McDavid took less but Matthews didn't.

Excuse me?

Auston wanted ~13.5 on an 8 year deal. That is absurd.

You're going off the deep end here if you think auston took less then he couldve

 

[Sypher04]

Excuse me?

Auston wanted ~13.5 on an 8 year deal. That is absurd.

You're going off the deep end here if you think auston took less then he couldve

I remember hearing 13, not 13.5 and even IF either number is true, he's probably worth it, based on the cap increase and what it's projected to do through the US TV deal that is looming and Seattle expansion.
The discount or concession Matthews made for the Leafs was taking 5 years at the AAV he got over 8 years at a potentially well higher AAV.
I'm not sure how people can't see this.
I'm not saying it represents a true discount so to speak and I don't think he should have been expected necessarily take one, but clearly Matthews worked with the team to find a deal that'd work for both sides.

 

[Stamkos4life]

I made this post a few months ago but here's the breakdown. Read it, digest it and see what the REAL NUMBERS are (not your hypothetical facts in your mind). I'm all for arguing for the sake of arguing but when you have a baseless argument. Take the L and find another point to argue.

Auston Matthews definitely isn't the point scorer that McDavid is but he puts up near PPG during his ELC. Something not matched by players not named (Malkin, Crosby etc. Top echelon players). Not to mention he is an absolute stud goal scorer. He got paid for his work. He literally shat over the same players that are currently being praised for their play and contracts (value) in MacK, Scheifele, Barkov etc.
--------------------

ELC: Current Cap: Contract % of cap when signed

Centers:


Barkov: $5.9 mil/ year : 9.12%
PPG: 0.62
GPG: 0.27

Scheifele: $6.125 mil/ year : 9.55%
PPG: 0.64
GPG: 0.26

Monahan: $6.375 mil/ year : 8.58%
PPG: 0.67
GPG: 0.34

Kuznetsov: $7.8 mil/ year : 10.09%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.2

MacKinnon: $6.3 mil/ year : 9%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.27

Draisaitl $8.5 mil/year : 13.43%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.26

Aho: $8.5 mil/ year : 10.4%
PPG: 0.81
GPG: 0.34

Eichel: $10 mil/ year : 13.13%
PPG: 0.85
GPG: 0.35

Matthews: $11.634 mil/ year : 14.2%
PPG: 0.97
GPG: 0.52

McDavid: $12.5 mil/ year : 15.29%
PPG: 1.22
GPG: 0.42

Wingers:

Huberdeau: $3.25/ year bridge deal: 4.6% bridge
PPG: 0.58
GPG: 0.19

Hoffman: $5.187 mil/ year: 7.1%
PPG: 0.61
GPG: 0.32

Ehlers: $6 mil/ year : 7.9%
PPG: 0.69
GPG: 0.29

Pastrnak: $6.67 mil/ year : 8.8%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.34

Nylander: $6.96 mil/ year: 8.8% (13.44% because he signed late into the season and first year cap hit was $10.2 mil)
PPG: 0.73
GPG: 0.26

Tarasenko: $7.5 mil/ year: 10.5%
PPG: 0.75
GPG: 0.37

Gaudreau: $6.75 mil/ year: 9.3%
PPG: 0.88
GPG: 0.31

Marner: - : -
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.28

Panarin: $6 mil/ year bridge deal: 8% Bridge
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.38

Using Draisaitl, Eichel and McDavid as comparable for Matthews, I can argue that either both Matthews and McDavid are underpaid (McDavid severely) or both Eichel and Draisaitl were severely overpaid for what they had done in their ELC. As of today, you would be hard pressed to find any one complaining about either Eichel or Draisaitls contracts. Same will apply for Matthews in 2 years.

Matthews has the most absurd GPG out of every player listed both W and C. He's outscored his second best GPG guy in McDavid by 0.1 GPG/ season. That amounts to about 8 more goals per 82 game season. That is absurd.

Mitch is at a cross roads and understandably so. He's at the upper echelon of ELC production for wingers. Both Gaudreau and Panarin seemingly took sweetheart deals with a bridge and a 9.3% cap hit for Johnny hockey. Tarasenko looks like he was overpaid when he signed his deal.

Willy's contract from what I can see was fair. He definitely didn't take a sweetheart deal like Johnny Gaudreau did but he is in no way shape or form overpaid for what he did in his ELC.

Lastly, Sebastian Aho's current contract is well below market value for what he has produced so far. He should be getting paid probably $1 mil more in AAV than what the current offer sheet is. I'm not sure with the inner workings of his deal but if I was his agent I would not have signed the deal that Montreal offered. Aho contract is a bargain for what he's done thus far and if he continues to produce and improve like all of these players have for the most part, Aho is going to end up the biggest steal of a contract next to a guy like Johnny Gaudreau.

EDIT: I would include MacK, Huberdeau, Chef, Barkov as steal of a deal contracts but looking at their not so hot ELC production, these guys ended up being late bloomers more than anything else. Teams were fortunate to sign them while their values were lower post ELC.

EDIT X2: Looking at Aho's agent. He's a finish guy with all finish players and most of them are young guys with Aho being the biggest name. Carolina got lucky.

Rantanen has the same agent as Draisaitl, Schneider, Risto, Tarasenko. I would put a good chunk of money down that he's not going to get ripped off by any stretch. All those players have signed above market value contracts with their respective teams. Laine has the same agent. (bold prediction, Laine will get close to/ more than what Marner/Rants will make even though anyone who has watched hockey knows that he is no where near the player that Marner/Rants are).

Brayden Point's agent has Price and Lucic so he's going to get a pretty penny as well.

Mitch's agent Darren Ferris looks like Mitch is his main guy. His other top clients are Taylor hall, Zach Bogosian and Andreas Athanasiou. We all remember Athanasiou threatening the wings to go play in europe with his contract hold out. He eventually ended up caving once he realized he had no leverage in his situation. Lol (If I was a betting man, I would bet that Mitch takes a 2 year $6-7 mil/ year bridge deal and renegs when the cap is higher in two years when the TV deals kick in and he has a couple more PPG and potentially 100+ point seasons under his belt)//////// Ferris is notorious for getting his guys to bridge deals.

Auston and McDavid have the same agencies. The bobby orr group.

I see you conveniently left out term during your comparison. It wouldn't be because it makes auston look worse, would it? The fact auston is 1% behind mcdavid even though his is 3 years shorter is atrocious. That's ignoring the obvious that McDavid is twice the player Matthew's is.

Its amusing seeing you, dekes and a couple others spin your self in circles trying to justify the contracts.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Excuse me?

Auston wanted ~13.5 on an 8 year deal. That is absurd.

You're going off the deep end here if you think auston took less then he couldve

Where did it say he wanted 13.5 ?

Even if he wanted 13.5 (16.3% of the cap of 83 million which was speculated at the time) which is less % then McDavid's contract, how can you say McDavid "Took Less" and also say Matthews' didn't.

I know Matthews is not better then McDavid, but that's why he would be taking slightly less percent then McDavid.

The entire argument on this is that without knowing how much less McDavid took with his "took less" contract, and how much Matthews actually would have signed for on a 8 yr contract, you can't just say he didn't take less.

Just use logic.

 

[Stamkos4life]

i guess you missed the reaction by the league at that time , funny how that happens lol

Nylander signed for more than his comparable's and funny how after 50 000 plus posts with the vast majority saying he was no where near the player pasta is and should get 6m x 7/8 yrs how opinion changed once the Dube got molested , lol

Dubas and Willie's people negotiated until the last second and a deal was reached when Dubas caved and stopped low balling him , i guess you missed the "we vs me" media campaign with Shanny also jumping in about his Det days

dress up the AM signing all you want but the rumored reaction after that deal was announced by GM's around the league was of disbelief about how hard Dubas got ****ed and how he just ****ed them in there future negotiations

yea lets praise the Dube for dumping a 1yr cap dump and the guy might just retire , lol , we should also praise him for turning Levio into Carcone ,

you actually believe Kap and Johnson are underpaid ? what do you think they were going to get after first full season in the league ?

i remember Burke had a much bigger more rabid fan base that also defended his every move up until he was kicked to the curb like a piece of garbage just like you're doing with the Dube , i wonder where the Burke fan club has disappeared . lol

I honestly think I large portion of the burke fan club have switched to the dubas fan club.

Same crap, different pile

 

[Sypher04]

I see you conveniently left out term during your comparison. It wouldn't be because it makes auston look worse, would it? The fact auston is 1% behind mcdavid even though his is 3 years shorter is atrocious. That's ignoring the obvious that McDavid is twice the player Matthew's is.

Its amusing seeing you, dekes and a couple others spin your self in circles trying to justify the contracts.

Far from everyone he listed is on 7 or 8 year terms, so there's still plenty you can draw comparison with there.
Also, it's kind of rich that you call him out over leaving out term from the comparison, when you are straight up making up things.

Connor McDavid at the time he signed, July 5th 2017, took 16.67% of the $75,000,000 cap
Auston Matthews at the time he signed, February 5th, 2019 took 14.63% of the $79,500,000 cap
So, right off the bat, there's a 2.04% difference between them, not 1% as you claim

Also consider, at the time Matthews signed his deal that the NHL was already on record with a projection for next season's cap, at $83,000,000. To the best of the my knowledge, they've never significantly fallen short of any of their projections in all the years the cap has been in place, but this year we did by $1,500,000.

Matthews' contract was negotiated based on information that ended up proving bad.
If you adjust Matthews contract for what the cap was believed to be at in year 1 of the deal (2019/20) it's just 14.02%

2.65% under McDavid's deal.
Also, if you look historically, I'm sure you'll find the cap percentage drop between the top say 2-3 NHL players and the guys in the next tier below them is probably not all that steep, though, I'd have to admit, I have not done this exercise myself. Just going off gut feeling and memory.

 

[Sypher04]

I honestly think I large portion of the burke fan club have switched to the dubas fan club.

Same crap, different pile

There's almost nothing similar about what Burke and Dubas have done as GM here.
I disliked a lot of what Burke did.
I don't agree with every single thing Dubas has done, but I think overall he's done a hell of a lot of good.

 

[Sypher04]

Nylander signed for more than his comparable's and funny how after 50 000 plus posts with the vast majority saying he was no where near the player pasta is and should get 6m x 7/8 yrs how opinion changed once the Dube got molested , lol

I always figured Pastrnak would get more based on his final ELC year and the goals he posted primarily, which he did, but let's not act like ELC production is some massive divide between the two players. Pastrnak put up 70 points in 75 games in year 3 which is great, but he also only had 53 combined points through years 1 and 2. I recognize he missed time in both seasons, but his best previous career mark was 27 points and his best pace was for 49 points. Nylander had two 20g, 60p seasons under his belt. So his ELC didn't have the high of Pastrnak's but also didn't have the lows. Both had their question marks. It's also fair to point to the fact that Pastrnak's increase in year 3 coincided with a move to a line with Marchand and Bergeron. I'm not taking anything away from Pastrnak, he's build on his ELC play to become a truly fantastic player for Boston, but ELC wise it's just not the ridiculous slam dunk people wanna make it out to be. Also, I recall a great number of people thinking Pastrnak took less than he could have when he signed.

Dubas and Willie's people negotiated until the last second and a deal was reached when Dubas caved and stopped low balling him , i guess you missed the "we vs me" media campaign with Shanny also jumping in about his Det days

Nylander's camp was the camp that caved. We don't have to speculate on this. We've essentially told as much by Nylander himself. It was his camp that called with like 20 mins left to the deadline to get a deal done. If you somehow read that to mean Dubas caved, you're frankly beyond any sense of logic.

dress up the AM signing all you want but the rumored reaction after that deal was announced by GM's around the league was of disbelief about how hard Dubas got ****ed and how he just ****ed them in there future negotiations

Oh really? You talked a GM from around the league, did you? Fact of the matter is we don't really know what the rest of the league thought of Matthews' deal. We have a few media pieces that claim NHL sources, but those are often dubious at best.

 

[Legion34]

I can't for the life of me understand why some posters try so damn hard to be so pissed off right when we finally get a good team. There's criticism, and there's searching nook and cranny for any angle that paints things as bad as humanly possible.

Because they aren’t fans of the team

 

[ToDavid]

Brian Burke said Nylander would be traded by the draft. Brian Burke said that Marner would not be able to get away with his creative plays in the NHL. Brian Burke says things that make people talk about Brian Burke.

Matthews will be a UFA in five years. He will be free to sign wherever he likes. Maybe he'll stay, maybe he'll go. Burke has absolutely zero insight into which one it will be.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think this thread has run its course. Closed.