Speculation: Brian Burke Believes Matthews Will Leave Toronto In 5 Years

[Throw More Waffles]

Do you honestly think for one second that Matthews has the worst contract in the league from a team perspective?

It’s up there...

 

[hotpaws]

incompetent employee lol, you are something man.

yea he's an employee of the team , what is it you think he is ?

 

[Havoc]

you can try to spin it any way you like but the entire league was shocked at how hard Dubas got bent over

To be honest, outside of Hfboards cap debates I don't see much talk about Matthews contract.

Majority of the world turned a blind eye. He's just a player you feel lucky to have and it supports the fact that a different economy exists when it comes to players like him.

It is what it is. Alternative is to skip him in the draft and take someone less special.

 

[hotpaws]

Because Matthews has been orders of magnitude better than Eichel as a franchise cornerstone and that is usually expressed in more money, and in this case a shorter term as well so Matthews can make even more money than Eichel across the full 8 years.

the gap between McD and Mathews is greater than the gap between Mathews and Eichel

yet Mathews got a better deal than the guy who's head and shoulders the best player in the game yet people are trying to defend the Dube

 

[nobody]

the gap between McD and Mathews is greater than the gap between Mathews and Eichel

yet Mathews got a better deal than the guy who's head and shoulders the best player in the game yet people are trying to defend the Dube

Except that he didn't. Not trying to say you're shit at math but it clearly doesn't seem to be a strong suit. Matthews value relative to the cap is a couple % lower than McDavid and it's only a bit higher than the traditional contracts that have been signed by players who have put up his type of #s. Honestly, if you're going to bitch about a point atleast get your facts straight.

I'm not saying Matty did us any favors with his deal but he certainly didnt rip the Leafs off. McDavid genuinely took a discount and he even said in interviews after signing his deal that he left a million per on the table to help the Oilers out. Unfortunately for him that savings went to Milan Lucic. Lol

 

[hotpaws]

To be honest, outside of Hfboards cap debates I don't see much talk about Matthews contract.

Majority of the world turned a blind eye. He's just a player you feel lucky to have and it supports the fact that a different economy exists when it comes to players like him.

It is what it is. Alternative is to skip him in the draft and take someone less special.

it's the GM's and players reaction that's important and he's an agent best friend the way he keeps resetting the bar higher

the alternative was to have hired a competent GM , this idiot is destroying our cap and burning assets yet some fans are just ignoring how incompetent he is due to not wanting to believe the person running there team is a clueless fool

 

[hotpaws]

Except that he didn't. Not trying to say you're **** at math but it clearly doesn't seem to be a strong suit. Matthews value relative to the cap is a couple % lower than McDavid and it's only a bit higher than the traditional contracts that have been signed by players who have put up his type of #s. Honestly, if you're going to ***** about a point atleast get your facts straight.

I'm not saying Matty did us any favors with his deal but he certainly didnt rip the Leafs off. McDavid genuinely took a discount and he even said in interviews after signing his deal that he left a million per on the table to help the Oilers out. Unfortunately for him that savings went to Milan Lucic. Lol

why are you ignoring the term of the deals ?

traditional contracts ? yea lets go back 10 plus years to Malkin because no one else has had that cap hit % at that term and Geno was the better player when he signed coming off his elc

just have to ask though , when you and others are inventing endless excuses to defend Dubas , do you think you're standing up for the honor of the team ?

 

[Havoc]

it's the GM's and players reaction that's important and he's an agent best friend the way he keeps resetting the bar higher

the alternative was to have hired a competent GM , this idiot is destroying our cap and burning assets yet some fans are just ignoring how incompetent he is due to not wanting to believe the person running there team is a clueless fool

Need more evidence.

Nylander is in line with his comparables. Comes down to preference after that. You want player x for 6.something mil or you want player y instead.

Marner is currently in a lockout.

So far, Dubas never caved to anyone regardless of Mr. Waffle spews around here. It's been the opposite. Nylander was going to miss the entire season if he didn't bring the AAV down last minute.

Kapanen and Johnsson not only got good deals but Dubas set the market for all similar tier players that followed. Everyone and the league was okay with these AAV's.



So we have Auston Matthews. Borderline generational player. 6'3 beast who can skate and has a shot that puts him ahead of Joe Sakic at the same age. The one dude Dubas didn't hesitate to give a monster contract to was the one piece we've been waiting 10+ years to find.

Yeah I'm going to need more evidence before I turn my back on Dubas.

Dude already shed the dead weight off the team and fixed our transition game as well.

You don't have the firepower to prove he's incompetent.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

it's the GM's and players reaction that's important and he's an agent best friend the way he keeps resetting the bar higher

the alternative was to have hired a competent GM , this idiot is destroying our cap and burning assets yet some fans are just ignoring how incompetent he is due to not wanting to believe the person running there team is a clueless fool

What good players have we lost because of overpayments by Dubas?

 

[hotpaws]

Need more evidence.

Nylander is in line with his comparables. Comes down to preference after that. You want player x for 6.something mil or you want player y instead.

Marner is currently in a lockout.

So far, Dubas never caved to anyone regardless of Mr. Waffle spews around here. It's been the opposite. Nylander was going to miss the entire season if he didn't bring the AAV down last minute.

Kapanen and Johnsson not only got good deals but Dubas set the market for all similar tier players that followed. Everyone and the league was okay with these AAV's.



So we have Auston Matthews. Borderline generational player. 6'3 beast who can skate and has a shot that puts him ahead of Joe Sakic at the same age. The one dude Dubas didn't hesitate to give a monster contract to was the one piece we've been waiting 10+ years to find.

Yeah I'm going to need more evidence before I turn my back on Dubas.

Dude already shed the dead weight off the team and fixed our transition game as well.

You don't have the firepower to prove he's incompetent.

i guess you missed the reaction by the league at that time , funny how that happens lol

Nylander signed for more than his comparable's and funny how after 50 000 plus posts with the vast majority saying he was no where near the player pasta is and should get 6m x 7/8 yrs how opinion changed once the Dube got molested , lol

Dubas and Willie's people negotiated until the last second and a deal was reached when Dubas caved and stopped low balling him , i guess you missed the "we vs me" media campaign with Shanny also jumping in about his Det days

dress up the AM signing all you want but the rumored reaction after that deal was announced by GM's around the league was of disbelief about how hard Dubas got f***ed and how he just f***ed them in there future negotiations

yea lets praise the Dube for dumping a 1yr cap dump and the guy might just retire , lol , we should also praise him for turning Levio into Carcone ,

you actually believe Kap and Johnson are underpaid ? what do you think they were going to get after first full season in the league ?

i remember Burke had a much bigger more rabid fan base that also defended his every move up until he was kicked to the curb like a piece of garbage just like you're doing with the Dube , i wonder where the Burke fan club has disappeared . lol

 

[TomP24684]

First of all you have no clue if he will make more. You don't know his next contact.

Secondly, you can say that for a single year, then McDavid blows that contract out of the water.

Leafs are in a better situation, this ensures Matthews will always have a lower AAV then McDavid (other then the 2 years of 500k more).

We know McDavid “took less” to sign. Matthews squeezed every last penny possible out of his situation. Maybe that happens again in 5 years and boom Matthews makes more than McDavid?

 

[hotpaws]

What good players have we lost because of overpayments by Dubas?

going to the old hypothetical excuse , good on you to bring that out , lol

 

[Stephen]

Need more evidence.

Nylander is in line with his comparables. Comes down to preference after that. You want player x for 6.something mil or you want player y instead.

Marner is currently in a lockout.

So far, Dubas never caved to anyone regardless of Mr. Waffle spews around here. It's been the opposite. Nylander was going to miss the entire season if he didn't bring the AAV down last minute.

Kapanen and Johnsson not only got good deals but Dubas set the market for all similar tier players that followed. Everyone and the league was okay with these AAV's.



So we have Auston Matthews. Borderline generational player. 6'3 beast who can skate and has a shot that puts him ahead of Joe Sakic at the same age. The one dude Dubas didn't hesitate to give a monster contract to was the one piece we've been waiting 10+ years to find.

Yeah I'm going to need more evidence before I turn my back on Dubas.

Dude already shed the dead weight off the team and fixed our transition game as well.

You don't have the firepower to prove he's incompetent.

Also, you look at where Matthews is currently in his development path, and it's a full three years behind the likes of Barkov and Mackinnon who are now hitting their peak. What's Matthews going to be doing a couple of years from now?

 

[Stephen]

the gap between McD and Mathews is greater than the gap between Mathews and Eichel

yet Mathews got a better deal than the guy who's head and shoulders the best player in the game yet people are trying to defend the Dube

McDavid makes more money on his AAV than Matthews. You're all over the place.

 

[TorMapleJays]

We know McDavid “took less” to sign. Matthews squeezed every last penny possible out of his situation. Maybe that happens again in 5 years and boom Matthews makes more than McDavid?

They will be on the same team then dude.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

going to the old hypothetical excuse , good on you to bring that out , lol

nothing hypothetical about you giving real examples of real players we've lost due to real overpayments. Well, other than you making it up that Dubas has screwed the team

 

[hotpaws]

McDavid makes more money on his AAV than Matthews. You're all over the place.

i never said Mathews made more , i said he had better contract when you factor in the term

 

[TomP24684]

They will be on the same team then dude.

Took someone long enough.

 

[hotpaws]

nothing hypothetical about you giving real examples of real players we've lost due to real overpayments. Well, other than you making it up that Dubas has screwed the team

Burke's fan club used the same arguments , your not being witty or original .

but hey who cares how much he overpays because it's our duty to defend our GM's every move just like we did with Burke

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Burke's fan club used the same arguments , your not being witty or original .

but hey who cares how much he overpays because it's our duty to defend our GM's every move just like we did with Burke

so no examples of these disastrous overpayments actually affecting the team in any way. thought so

 

[nobody]

i never said Mathews made more , i said he had better contract when you factor in the term

Matthews took market value. Even with his 5 year term. I dont know why you're making it out like he took Dubas and the Leafs to the woodshed. Are you going to blame the GM and the team for not being able to convince a rising star to not give the team a discount? Give me a break. It's a two way street. Also you responding to my comment I'm not going back 10 years. I'm talking every major close to PPG player and high goal scorer coming out of their ELC. Matthews took a deal that puts him on par with what every other guy has been getting for years. His number seems inflated because the cap is sitting at a high number so the % pie looks bigger.

You are literally going on and on complaining about the leafs management and Dubas with no actual facts to backup your argument. Please stop making yourself look foolish. At the end of the day, if a player gets what they deserve that's not a loss for the franchise or the fans. Mitch Marner is deserving of a 8%-11% pie of the cap right now on a 5+ year deal. The reason theres no movement in negotiations is because hes trying to set the market for what RFA 1st contract wingers are worth. No GM is going to play along. If Matty tried to pull the same shit we wouldn't have a contract with him either. Marner as of right now deserves about 8.5-10 mil per. If Dubas pays more than that then you can legitimately roast him because then you would have a valid argument.

I'm not a betting man but I see Mitch signing a bridge at 6.5-8.5 for 2-3 years because that's market value. Precisely why Jake Gardiner hasn't signed yet either because at that bridge number we have enough cap left over to give jake a nice chunk of change on a 1 year deal.

 

[hotpaws]

so no examples of these disastrous overpayments actually affecting the team in any way. thought so

only a delusional homer would believe overpaying players doesn't affect what you can spend on the remainder of the roster but carry on believing otherwise if you choose

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

only a delusional homer would believe overpaying players doesn't affect what you can spend on the remainder of the roster but carry on believing otherwise if you choose

I agree it does. Unfortunately, by your own admission there's been no such impact on the Leafs. That should tell you something

 

[nobody]

why are you ignoring the term of the deals ?

traditional contracts ? yea lets go back 10 plus years to Malkin because no one else has had that cap hit % at that term and Geno was the better player when he signed coming off his elc

just have to ask though , when you and others are inventing endless excuses to defend Dubas , do you think you're standing up for the honor of the team ?

I made this post a few months ago but here's the breakdown. Read it, digest it and see what the REAL NUMBERS are (not your hypothetical facts in your mind). I'm all for arguing for the sake of arguing but when you have a baseless argument. Take the L and find another point to argue.

Auston Matthews definitely isn't the point scorer that McDavid is but he puts up near PPG during his ELC. Something not matched by players not named (Malkin, Crosby etc. Top echelon players). Not to mention he is an absolute stud goal scorer. He got paid for his work. He literally shat over the same players that are currently being praised for their play and contracts (value) in MacK, Scheifele, Barkov etc.
--------------------

ELC: Current Cap: Contract % of cap when signed

Centers:


Barkov: $5.9 mil/ year : 9.12%
PPG: 0.62
GPG: 0.27

Scheifele: $6.125 mil/ year : 9.55%
PPG: 0.64
GPG: 0.26

Monahan: $6.375 mil/ year : 8.58%
PPG: 0.67
GPG: 0.34

Kuznetsov: $7.8 mil/ year : 10.09%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.2

MacKinnon: $6.3 mil/ year : 9%
PPG: 0.70
GPG: 0.27

Draisaitl $8.5 mil/year : 13.43%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.26

Aho: $8.5 mil/ year : 10.4%
PPG: 0.81
GPG: 0.34

Eichel: $10 mil/ year : 13.13%
PPG: 0.85
GPG: 0.35

Matthews: $11.634 mil/ year : 14.2%
PPG: 0.97
GPG: 0.52

McDavid: $12.5 mil/ year : 15.29%
PPG: 1.22
GPG: 0.42

Wingers:

Huberdeau: $3.25/ year bridge deal: 4.6% bridge
PPG: 0.58
GPG: 0.19

Hoffman: $5.187 mil/ year: 7.1%
PPG: 0.61
GPG: 0.32

Ehlers: $6 mil/ year : 7.9%
PPG: 0.69
GPG: 0.29

Pastrnak: $6.67 mil/ year : 8.8%
PPG: 0.72
GPG: 0.34

Nylander: $6.96 mil/ year: 8.8% (13.44% because he signed late into the season and first year cap hit was $10.2 mil)
PPG: 0.73
GPG: 0.26

Tarasenko: $7.5 mil/ year: 10.5%
PPG: 0.75
GPG: 0.37

Gaudreau: $6.75 mil/ year: 9.3%
PPG: 0.88
GPG: 0.31

Marner: - : -
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.28

Panarin: $6 mil/ year bridge deal: 8% Bridge
PPG: 0.93
GPG: 0.38

Using Draisaitl, Eichel and McDavid as comparable for Matthews, I can argue that either both Matthews and McDavid are underpaid (McDavid severely) or both Eichel and Draisaitl were severely overpaid for what they had done in their ELC. As of today, you would be hard pressed to find any one complaining about either Eichel or Draisaitls contracts. Same will apply for Matthews in 2 years.

Matthews has the most absurd GPG out of every player listed both W and C. He's outscored his second best GPG guy in McDavid by 0.1 GPG/ season. That amounts to about 8 more goals per 82 game season. That is absurd.

Mitch is at a cross roads and understandably so. He's at the upper echelon of ELC production for wingers. Both Gaudreau and Panarin seemingly took sweetheart deals with a bridge and a 9.3% cap hit for Johnny hockey. Tarasenko looks like he was overpaid when he signed his deal.

Willy's contract from what I can see was fair. He definitely didn't take a sweetheart deal like Johnny Gaudreau did but he is in no way shape or form overpaid for what he did in his ELC.

Lastly, Sebastian Aho's current contract is well below market value for what he has produced so far. He should be getting paid probably $1 mil more in AAV than what the current offer sheet is. I'm not sure with the inner workings of his deal but if I was his agent I would not have signed the deal that Montreal offered. Aho contract is a bargain for what he's done thus far and if he continues to produce and improve like all of these players have for the most part, Aho is going to end up the biggest steal of a contract next to a guy like Johnny Gaudreau.

EDIT: I would include MacK, Huberdeau, Chef, Barkov as steal of a deal contracts but looking at their not so hot ELC production, these guys ended up being late bloomers more than anything else. Teams were fortunate to sign them while their values were lower post ELC.

EDIT X2: Looking at Aho's agent. He's a finish guy with all finish players and most of them are young guys with Aho being the biggest name. Carolina got lucky.

Rantanen has the same agent as Draisaitl, Schneider, Risto, Tarasenko. I would put a good chunk of money down that he's not going to get ripped off by any stretch. All those players have signed above market value contracts with their respective teams. Laine has the same agent. (bold prediction, Laine will get close to/ more than what Marner/Rants will make even though anyone who has watched hockey knows that he is no where near the player that Marner/Rants are).

Brayden Point's agent has Price and Lucic so he's going to get a pretty penny as well.

Mitch's agent Darren Ferris looks like Mitch is his main guy. His other top clients are Taylor hall, Zach Bogosian and Andreas Athanasiou. We all remember Athanasiou threatening the wings to go play in europe with his contract hold out. He eventually ended up caving once he realized he had no leverage in his situation. Lol (If I was a betting man, I would bet that Mitch takes a 2 year $6-7 mil/ year bridge deal and renegs when the cap is higher in two years when the TV deals kick in and he has a couple more PPG and potentially 100+ point seasons under his belt)//////// Ferris is notorious for getting his guys to bridge deals.

Auston and McDavid have the same agencies. The bobby orr group.

 

[hotpaws]

Matthews took market value. Even with his 5 year term. I don't know why you're making it out like he took Dubas and the Leafs to the woodshed. Are you going to blame the GM and the team for not being able to convince a rising star to not give the team a discount? Give me a break. It's a two way street. Also you responding to my comment I'm not going back 10 years. I'm talking every major close to PPG player and high goal scorer coming out of their ELC. Matthews took a deal that puts him on par with what every other guy has been getting for years. His number seems inflated because the cap is sitting at a high number so the % pie looks bigger.

You are literally going on and on complaining about the leafs management and Dubas with no actual facts to backup your argument. Please stop making yourself look foolish. At the end of the day, if a player gets what they deserve that's not a loss for the franchise or the fans. Mitch Marner is deserving of a 8%-11% pie of the cap right now on a 5+ year deal. The reason theres no movement in negotiations is because hes trying to set the market for what RFA 1st contract wingers are worth. No GM is going to play along. If Matty tried to pull the same **** we wouldn't have a contract with him either. Marner as of right now deserves about 8.5-10 mil per. If Dubas pays more than that then you can legitimately roast him because then you would have a valid argument.

I'm not a betting man but I see Mitch signing a bridge at 6.5-8.5 for 2-3 years because that's market value. Precisely why Jake Gardiner hasn't signed yet either because at that bridge number we have enough cap left over to give jake a nice chunk of change on a 1 year deal.

name the recent comparable's your using to base you your opinion on that AM signed for market value and please factor in term

and your not making any sense with what you're saying Marner deserves to get

Your saying Marner's earned 8-11% on a 5 plus year term which is 6.5 to 8,96 m as well as saying he deserves 8.5m to 10m , no term provided .

Then you go on to say you believe he'll sign for 6,5 to 8.5 (huge spread) for 2/3 yrs

you're all over the place with you numbers of what youbelieve he's worth